Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys

• CIN -7.5, O/U 41.5
• Bengals at Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Bengals News – Injury Reports
• Cowboys News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Burrow’s fantasy performance last week as QB6 was more generous than his real-life one, where he slung four picks and slinked his way down the field with 6.4 yards per attempt. He was PFF’s 27th-highest graded passer in Week 1. Burrow can outproduce both aspects this week against Dallas. Burrow takes on a Dallas pass defense that, after Week 1, has allowed the sixth-highest success rate per dropback, ninth-highest net yards per pass attempt, and generated the eighth-lowest pressure rate.

Cooper Rush: Please, Dak Prescott, heal fast. Hurry back. Dallas is in trouble with Cooper Rush under center. Among 33 quarterbacks with at least ten dropbacks in Week 1, Rush was 23rd in PFF passing grade, 31st in yards per attempt, and 26th in adjusted completion rate. His one start last year offers more hope than last week’s performance against a tough defense. In 2021 against the Vikings, he completed 60% of his passes with 8.0 yards per attempt and 325 passing yards as the QB12 in fantasy. Rush has a tall task this week against the Bengals. After one game, they are 11th in pass defense DVOA with the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback and tenth-lowest EPA per dropback allowed.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon is a locked-in top ten running back. In Week 1, he played 74.5% of the snaps with the second-highest opportunity share. Outside of failing to score a touchdown in Week 1, he was exactly what we hoped for in fantasy draft season, with 34 total touches and 145 total yards. Mixon led all running backs in routes last week while ranking eighth in route participation. With Tee Higgins dealing with a concussion, the Bengals will similarly lean on him this week. After Week 1, Dallas is 14th in rush success rate, 19th in second-level yards, and 18th in open field yards. Last year they allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt, ranked 30th in red zone rushing defense, and 21st in explosive run rate allowed. Leonard Fournette crushed them with 127 rushing yards at 6.0 yards per carry last week. Behind a rebuilt offensive line that is tenth in open field yards after one game, Mixon could produce similar numbers.

Ezekiel Elliott: Since 2019 in games without Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott‘s numbers have dipped across the board. This sounds like common sense, but it needs to be mentioned. Dallas could lean on him further in Prescott’s absence, so we could see his raw volume climb, but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where he is more efficient without Prescott and behind a battered offensive line. Elliott played 60.9% of the snaps in Week 1 with a 60% opportunity share. He finished with 11 total touches and 49 total yards as the RB49. Among 31 running backs with at least ten carries in Week 1, he was dead last in PFF’s elusive rating as he forced zero missed tackles and produced zero runs of 10-plus yards. Dallas was 18th in adjusted line yards, 18th in second-level yards, and 29th in open field yards against Tampa Bay. The Bengals aren’t as tough of a matchup after giving up the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt last year and ranking 20th and 25th in second-level and open field yards.

Tony Pollard: Different year, but it’s the same old story. Tony Pollard isn’t being utilized enough. Pollard played 51.6% of the snaps last week with a 40% opportunity share. He saw eight touches producing 22 total yards. Pollard is a sit until Dak Prescott returns, until we see Dallas utilize him more. This offensive unit’s overall decrease in efficiency hurts him more than Elliott because he can’t overcome the decreased scoring opportunities and effectiveness with raw volume.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Last week we saw the type of ceiling Ja’Marr Chase possesses when fed elite-level Davante Adams volume. With Tee Higgins sidelined, Chase was fed a 30.2% target share and a 29.1% target rate per route. He responded with a ten-grab outing with 129 receiving yards as the WR4 in fantasy. Among every wide receiver with at least five targets last week, he was PFF’s 11th-highest graded wide receiver running about 74% of his routes on the perimeter. He’ll match up with Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown this week. Diggs allowed a 56.4% catch rate and 70.1 passer rating last year while also conceding five receiving touchdowns. Brown was similarly boom or bust with a 57.7% catch rate permitted and 82.9 passer rating (six receiving touchdowns).

Tee Higgins: I’ll continue to monitor Tee Higgins‘ progress through concussion protocol and update his outlook for Sunday when we have more information on his possible availability. Update: The news around Tee Higgins sounds like he could play this week. If Higgins is active, expect him to be a full-time player. Last year he saw a 23.9% target share and 24.5% target per route run rate. He was tenth in yards per route run last year. He’ll run about 85% of his routes against Diggs and Brown.

Tyler Boyd: Last week, without Higgins for much of the day, Tyler Boyd didn’t see a huge bump. He saw a 13.2% target share and a 14.6% target rate per route run mark. He was the WR29 for the week after getting into the endzone and totaling four grabs and 33 receiving yards. Boyd remains a solid WR3 option in fantasy. He’ll run about 89% of his routes against Jourdan Lewis, who allowed a 65.5% catch rate and 81.8 passer rating in coverage last year.

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb had a brutal game in Week 1. He saw a 26.8% target share (18th) but only secured two of his 11 targets as the WR75 in fantasy. With Cooper Rush under center now, the volume should remain in the same realm as Lamb’s, nearly the only show in town. His matchup this week improves significantly as he’ll run about 63% of his routes against Mike Hilton. Last year Hilton allowed a 69.7% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating. This is a far cry from the Tampa Buccaneers’ shutdown secondary. Lamb is a volume-driven WR2 or high-end WR3 with Prescott on the shelf.

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst: Hurst saw the type of usage in Week 1 that we covet from tight ends in fantasy, although he only finished as the TE13. Hurst was third in routes run, tenth in target share, and 21st in target per route run rate. He also saw two red zone targets. Snaps, routes, and red zone work. The holy trinity of tight end usage. Dallas isn’t insurmountable for tight ends, ranking 16th in DVOA last year with the 13th-most receiving yards allowed. Hurst is a top streaming option this week and a good bet to sneak into the top 12.

Dalton Schultz: Even with the downgrade at quarterback Dalton Schultz was the TE6 last week, snagging seven of his nine targets for 62 (scoreless yards). He was fifth among tight ends in target share (22.0%) while ranking first in snap share and route participation. Schultz remains a top option at the position despite Cooper Rush. His volume should remain sound, and his routes aren’t going anywhere. Schultz could lead the team in targets this week against the Bengals. Last year Cincinnati was a beautiful opponent for tight ends, ranking 24th in DVOA, allowing the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards.

Check out my DFS advice for this contest and all games

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -10, O/U 42.5
• Bears at Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Bears News – Injury Reports
• Packers News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: Do I think the Packers are as bad as their 26th pass defense DVOA and third-highest net yards per pass attempt ranking right now? No. Does that mean they are a shutdown secondary coming off a bad week? No, again. Green Bay’s 2021 resume was littered with inconsistencies as they allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt while also giving up the sixth-most passing touchdowns. They had the 17th-lowest success rate per dropback and 14th-lowest EPA per dropback allowed last year. In his final start against this pass defense last year Justin Fields completed 54.5% of his passes with 6.7 yards per attempt while chipping in nine rushes for 74 yards on the ground. The production with his legs and two passing scores led him to QB10 for the week. Fields has a similar upside this week in a better offensive scheme.

Aaron Rodgers this week: pic.twitter.com/dAeaHcVtyn

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) September 16, 2022

Aaron Rodgers: In his last two meetings with Chicago, Rodgers has completed 76.6% of his passes with 8.9 yards per attempt and a 6:0 passing touchdown to interception ratio. He was the QB3 and QB9 in fantasy in those weeks. Yes, Davante Adams isn’t in town anymore, but it’s premature to write off Rodgers after one week when his most talented receivers are still attempting to find their way in the NFL. I don’t want to take anything away from the Bears’ upset win in Week 1, but this defense is probably closer to the 2021 version than last week suggests. In 2021 they were 16th in success rate per dropback, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 22nd in EPA per play allowed. If Rodgers can check his ego at the door and continue to target his receivers through miscues and he gets Allen Lazard back, a high ceiling is still attainable in Week 2.

Running Backs

David Montgomery: Montgomery met the stonewall that is the 49ers’ run defense last week. No one should be surprised that his 20 touches amounted to 50 total yards and an RB40 finish. What was encouraging for Montgomery was his 62% snap share, 67.7% opportunity share (15th), and 11th rank in weighted opportunities. Montgomery also retained a 76.5% route participation mark (second-highest among running backs). How long he holds this role, though is still in question. Green Bay allowed the 18th-highest rushing success rate last week. Last year they were 26th and 21st in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. They were also 23rd in red zone rushing defense and 28th in explosive run rate. Montgomery racked up 16 touches and 81 total yards against them last year in his one game against Green Bay as the RB16. Montgomery falls in the low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 mix for Week 2.

Khalil Herbert: Herbert only saw ten touches last week, turning them into 43 total yards. His touchdown vaulted him to RB25. With a 28.6% snap share and 32.3% opportunity share, he’s still only a high-end handcuff.

Week 1

Aaron Jones: Let’s be clear, Jones still owns this backfield. He led the team in snaps and routes, but the volume didn’t go his way overall or in the red zone. Maybe the Packers backfield dissolves into a Cleveland Browns type of situation where each running back splits the work in different facets, but this is Jones’ running back room for now. In Week 1, the Bears proved this is a defense you can still run on. They allowed the tenth-highest rushing success rate and were 18th in rushing EPA per play allowed. Last year they were 14th in yards per attempt, 26th in explosive run rate, and 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. In his two meetings against Chicago last year, Jones averaged 17.5 touches and 87.5 total yards as the RB10 and RB8 in fantasy.

The Packers’ most important offensive playmaker not named Aaron Rodgers averaged 9.5 yards per touch on Sunday, but he only had eight touches.

“Any time Aaron Jones comes out of a game with eight touches, that’s not good enough.” — Matt LaFleur

Story: https://t.co/g4mNYco07N

— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) September 13, 2022

A.J. Dillon: Dillon is still on the wrong side of a split backfield, although the work leaned in his direction in Week 1. With Matt LaFleur giving some buzz to getting Jones some more work this upcoming week, I expect the snaps to favor Jones still but with the high leverage work and volume to follow suit. In a plus matchup with 10-15 touch upside, Dillon is a low-end RB2 if things break right. He’s best viewed as an upside flex or RB3.

Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney: The passing volume cratered in Week 1. This is the biggest issue facing Mooney in Week 2. His usage wasn’t an issue outside of the overall passing volume. His three targets still amounted to a 17.6% target share, which was a tad low, as was his 14.8% air yard share, but his 88.2% route participation tells the true tale that nothing changed with his role. In two games against the Packers last year, he averaged 6.5 targets, three receptions, and 32 receiving yards. He got into the endzone in one contest and was the WR21 for the week. The other he didn’t, and he was the WR84. Last week Mooney ran about 52% of his routes from the slot, which could creep even higher this week to keep him away from Jaire Alexander. Rasul Douglas is the Packers’ new slot corner with limited experience there. We must go back to 2020 to find some sample outside of Week 1. Lumping 2020 and 2022 together to amass 53 slot coverage snaps for Rasul Douglas, he has allowed four of his six targets to be secured for 86 receiving yards.

Allen Lazard: I’ll continue to monitor Lazard’s practice reports this week and revisit his spot in the pecking order for the Packers’ passing attack for Week 2, depending on his projected availability. Stay tuned. Update: Allen Lazard has been listed as questionable. If Lazard is active I expect him to reprise a full-time role. The Packers’ wide receiver room saw the second-lowest target share in the NFL (45.7%) in Week 1. Rodgers is obsessed with his security blankets. In two games against the Bears last year, Lazard was the WR34 and WR8 averaging six targets, 51 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Week 1

*Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb were second and third on the team in routes run in Week 1. In the process, both proved they are truly dust at this point in their careers with 0.64 and 0.52 yards per route run. Do not start either player unless you crave single-digit fantasy points in your lineups.

Christian Watson: Yes, Watson dropped a long pass in his first NFL game. Was it bad? Yep. Is it as big of a deal as everyone has made it out to be? No. Watson saw an 11.4% target share and 27.2% of the team’s air yards in his first game after recouping from a knee injury and missing most of camp and the entire preseason. We need to take all of this, understand the context, and realize that Watson played a significant role in Week 1, and his role should only grow from here. Watson saw the one infamous deep target and one red zone target. Watson will line up against Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor on about 75% of his routes. Johnson allowed a 56.9% catch rate, 102.8 passer rating, and six receiving touchdowns last year. Vildor was even worse with a 71.4% catch rate, 136.6 passer rating, and five receiving touchdowns in coverage.

Romeo Doubs: The sooner Aaron Rodgers embraces his rookie wide receivers, the better. The veteran options on this squad are far past their primes and wouldn’t likely be starters at this stage on many other clubs. Doubs saw a 14.4% target share and 23.0% of the team’s air yards in Week 1. Like Watson, he did see a red zone target. Doubs will run about 68% of his routes against Johnson and Vildor this week. If Rodgers blows up this week with a good game, it’s because of Watson and Doubs.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Kmet faced a tough matchup where the passing volume dipped last week, which amounted to his one target. His 80% snap share and 64.7% route participation are still strong. Kmet gets a more favorable matchup this week against the Packers, who were 28th in DVOA, allowing the 11th-most receptions and sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends last year. Kmet could return top 12 numbers this week after a down game.

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan’s snap share and route participation are likely to rise in Week 2 as he continues to work back from injury, but last week’s numbers are too low to consider playing him this week. He did see a 27.8% target per route run rate and a 14.8% target share, but his snap share was 39.3%, and his route participation was 46.2%. Sit Tonyan.

Check out my DFS advice for this contest and all games

Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -10, O/U 49
• Titans at Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Titans News – Injury Reports
• Bills News – Injury Report

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill: There’s no reason to consider starting Tannehill this week. Buffalo is a juggernaut on defense. After one game they look as stout (if not better) than last year’s unit. They gave up the second-lowest EPA per dropback, third-lowest net yards per pass attempt, and generated the tenth-highest pressure rate in Week 1. Yes, Ryan Tannehill was the QB11 last week, but the Giants’ pass defense and the Bills are no comparison. Tannehill saw the tenth-highest pressure rate last week behind the Titans’ degraded offensive line. What do we think the Bills will do to him in Week 2?

Josh Allen: Allen is matchup-proof. That’s all there is to it. There isn’t a matchup or defense on the board where you realistically should consider sitting him. Against the Rams, he logged the second-highest (adjusted) EPA per play behind only Patrick Mahomes. He was the QB2 last week, scoring a ridiculous 33.5 fantasy points while ranking second in EPA, QBR, and true passer rating. I never say this, but in the case of Allen, defenses don’t matter.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: Henry is still a good running back, but the days of legend performances could be over. I know it’s early. I know it’s one game. Hear me out. The Titans’ offensive line isn’t what it once was, ranking 24th and 19th in second-level and open field yards after Week 1. Henry wasn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he was 39th in yards created per touch despite ranking eighth in juke rate and third in evaded tackles. Peering deeper into his efficiency numbers, he was 16th in yards after contact per attempt and PFF’s elusive rating out of 31 running backs with ten or more carries in Week 1. He did handle a 70% snap share and 78.6% of the opportunities, so on volume alone, he can still be good as well. Buffalo is first and sixth in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed after Week 1 with the seventh-lowest rushing success rate. Henry is a volume play, and if he falls in the end zone, he’s like a top 15 running back in Week 2.

Week 1

Devin Singletary: Singletary remains the lead back for Buffalo. He was efficient and explosive with the work he was given. That’s never been the problem for Singletary. He was 12th in yards per touch and tenth in true yards per carry in Week 1. He was 18th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum eight carries). The issue is his red zone, and passing game roles are split with Zack Moss. Josh Allen blocks his goal-line role. While Tennessee allowed the seventh-highest rushing success rate and second-highest rushing EPA last week, Singletary is still no better than an RB3.

Zack Moss: Moss is a low-end flex play (if that). He saw 12 touches and turned them into 36 total yards. The most Moss stat line ever. With a sub, 40% snap share, and a red zone role split in three ways, he’s a bench stash.

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods: Woods played 68% of the snaps with a 72.7% route participation mark in Week 1. With only two targets and 13 receiving yards, you’d never know, though. Woods only drew a 6.5% target share. With King Henry as the offense’s engine this week against Buffalo and tough matchups for Woods with corners, he’s a sit.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: Westbrook-Ikhine is just a guy. Yes, he was second on the team in routes, but with a 0.59 yards per route run and middling career production, we could easily see Kyle Philips and Treylon Burks hop him on the depth chart in Week 2. Sit him.

Kyle Philips: Philips should continue to earn more work as the weeks move along in this passing game. The training camp hype and the talent are real. If he’s sitting on a waiver wire, correct that immediately. Philips only played 38% of the snaps in Week 1, which is why you can’t start him this week, but his results were fantastic. He demanded a 29% target share and saw a 52.9% target per route rate, ranking first among wide receivers. Playing nearly 70% of the snaps from the slot, the matchups will be good coming up, but he’s too risky to trust in your lineups without more snaps.

Treylon Burks: Many of the same reasons I outlined for Philips stand true for Burks. He only played 36.7% of the snaps in Week 1. However, he saw a 16.1% target share, highlighted by a 41.7% target per route run rate (fifth-highest). These high target-per-route rates puff up playing time assumptions for receivers. They are a slippery slope that can lead to travesty for any player in any week. Don’t fall for the trap. Stash Burks, but please don’t start him in Week 2.

Stefon Diggs: Diggs proved in Week 1 that he’s still firmly in his prime. As the WR6 in Week 1, he proved he’s still a must-start, no matter the matchup. He demanded a 29.0% target share with 41.8% of the team’s air yards with 4.69 yards per route run (sixth-highest). Diggs will see Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary on nearly 70% of his routes. Fulton showed a small ding in the armor last week, allowing all four targets to be secured for 84 yards and a score (158.3 passer rating). In his first NFL game, McCreary only saw one target in coverage. Matchups don’t matter for a player like Diggs.

Update on Kristian Fulton: Fulton is dealing with a hamstring injury and logged back-to-back DNPs into Friday. If Fulton is out then Caleb Farley will start opposite McCreary. Farley has allowed a 72.7% catch rate and 93.4 passer rating in his career.

Gabriel Davis (ankle) questionable for Monday night https://t.co/rwrouoRFvc via @jesseg628 #BillsMafia

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) September 17, 2022

Gabriel Davis: Davis has been listed as questionable with an ankle issue. Consider other options for your lineups or at least picking up Treylon Burks off waivers if he’s out there, so you have an option to plug in if Davis is out. If you’re in a pickle, Jake Kumerow or Khalil Shakir would be the wide receiver to assume Davis’s place on the outside opposite Diggs. Kumerow ran 93% of his preseason routes on the perimeter, so he’s my guess.

Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie and Jamison Crowder split the slot role in Week 1. McKenzie ran 21 routes, while Crowder had 12. Until one emerges from this split, they both sit in redraft.

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper: There are too many good tight-end streaming options this week to consider Austin Hooper. Last year, the Bills were 13th in DVOA against the position, allowing the sixth-lowest receiving yards and second-fewest receptions.

Dawson Knox: Congrats to Knox for securing the big contract, but that doesn’t make him a must-start at the tight end position in any week. Last week he only saw a 6.5% target share. Yes, his snap share was 87%, and his route participation was 87.1%, but he’s never been an efficient player, and the targets are drying up. He only saw a 1.3% air yard share last week. TEN was elite against tight ends last year, ranking third in DVOA, allowing the sixth-fewest reception, fifth-fewest receiving yards, and third-fewest receiving touchdowns. Play a streamer and sit Knox again this week.

Check out my DFS advice for this contest and all games

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -2.5, O/U 50.5
• Vikings at Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Vikings News – Injury Reports
• Eagles News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins: The Eagles concluded Week 1 ranked 16th in pass defense DVOA with the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback while also sitting at 16th in EPA per dropback. Overall this is a middle of the road pass defense that Cousins can exploit in a potential shootout. He finished last week in a tougher matchup as the QB12 with 277 passing yards and 8.7 yards per attempt. Cousins is again a low-end QB1.

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is coming off a QB4 performance last week where he failed to even throw for a touchdown. Hurts now lines up against a pass defense that blanketed Aaron Rodgers last week, but that doesn’t frighten me in the least. The Vikings allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and ninth-most passing touchdowns last year. They were also eighth in deep passing yards and deep passer rating. Hurts is a top three fantasy quarterback this week.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook: Did Cook play 90% of the snaps dominating every touch? No. Do we want him to be healthy for the fantasy playoffs? Yes. The Vikings still fed Cook 23 touches which he turned into 108 total yards. He played 72.4% of the snaps with a 75.8% opportunity share (tenth-highest). His 16.7% target share was also the tenth-highest at the position. He finished as the RB20 because he didn’t get in the endzone. The Eagles allowed the third-highest rushing EPA and sixth-highest rushing success rate in Week 1. Cook is in another prime spot to crush this week against a defense that allowed the third-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards to running backs last year.

Alexander Mattison: Mattison remains only a high-end handcuff with a 19% snap share and 24.2% opportunity share in Week 1. Don’t get cute and start him in any format.

Week 1

Miles Sanders: Sanders remains the only Eagles running back to consider starting weekly. This backfield is a three-way split with Scott eating into Gainwell’s work just enough to keep him out of fantasy lineups. Sanders turned his 15 touches into 101 total yards and an RB13 week to open the season. Sanders is currently seventh in yards per touch and 20th in yards created per touch. His efficiency and running behind a top-five offensive line help to maximize his touches weekly. Sanders could post a similar stat line to last week against the Vikings in Week 2. Minnesota currently is 24th or lower in every defensive line yard metric I consider. They allowed the seventh-highest rushing EPA and fourth-highest rushing success rate last week.

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell is staring down a 10-12 touch role right now weekly with involvement in the red zone. If he doesn’t get into the end zone in a week, though, you’re likely kicking yourself that you started him. Last week he only saw seven touches turning them into 32 total yards and a touchdown. The touchdowns propelled him to RB26 for the week. Without that, it would have max pain for Gainwell enthusiasts.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has entered another level. The Cooper Kupp matches don’t matter, realm. Jefferson was the WR1 in fantasy last week with 39.4 fantasy points commanding a 36.7% target share and target per route run rate, which were both top ten among receivers. Start him. Don’t think twice in any week.

Adam Thielen: Thielen is the dicier proposition. With Jefferson ascending to upper-tier elite status, Thielen is a dice roll weekly . Last week he only saw a 13.3% target share despite a 93.8% route participation mark. Thielen’s 1.20 yards per route run could be related to usage or his 6.8 aDOT. It also could be father time creeping up. Thielen will see James Bradberry and Darius Slay on nearly 67% of his routes. Bradberry allowed only one of his six targets in coverage in Week 1 to be secured. Slay was also stellar, with only three receptions allowed on nine targets in coverage. If you have better options, consider sitting Thielen this week. His stat line could mirror Week 1.

K.J. Osborn: Osborn is a deep league flex only. He only saw a 13.3% target share in Week 1 with 13.3% of the team’s air yards. However, he saw two red zone targets and gets a plus matchup against Avonte Maddox on over half of his routes this week. Maddox allowed an 83.3% catch rate and 107.6 passer rating in coverage in Week 1.

A.J. Brown: Brown domination season is in full effect. He was the WR7 last week with a 44.8% target share and 43.3% target per route run rate (both top three at his position). He is performing on a dominant level with a 64.8% air yard share. His 5.17 yards per route run were also fourth among wide receivers. The less-than-dynamic duo of Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler don’t scare me. Brown will tussle with them on nearly 71% of his routes. They combined to allow a 72.7% catch rate in Week 1 with 77 receiving yards in coverage.

DeVonta Smith: Smith will struggle to see consistent target volume with Brown and Dallas Goedert in the fold. Smith handled a 13.8% target share and 26.2% of the team’s air yards last week. With about 83% of his routes against Peterson and Dantzler this week, he should be considered a dart throw flex with upside if Hurts goes nuclear.

Tight Ends

Irv Smith Jr.: The matchup is great for Smith, but with only a 6.7% target share, 27.6% snap share, and 34.4% route participation clip in Week 1, he’s a sit unless you don’t have any other options. The Eagles allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends last year.

Dallas Goedert: Dallas Goedert is an elite-level talent at the tight end position that simply doesn’t get the volume to show off his skills. He saw a 13.8% target share in Week 1, reeling off 2.22 yards per route run (eighth-best). With zero deep or red zone targets, he finished as the TE14. He’s a low-end TE1 this week. The Vikings were 15th in DVOA against tight ends last year, ranking 20th in receiving yards and 25th in receptions allowed. If Hurts looks more to his secondary weapons this week, it will likely be Smith on the outside.

Check out my DFS advice for this contest and all games

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC-3.5, O/U 54
• Chargers vs. Chiefs Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Injuries

• Chargers News – Injury Reports
• Chiefs News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: Last year against the Chiefs, Herbert was much better for fantasy (QB5, QB2) than in real life. He logged two top-five performances on the strength of fourth passing scores in one game and a rushing touchdown in the other. Herbert, through the air, was just OK, completing 63.1% of his passes and averaging 258.5 passing yards, but with only 6.8 yards per attempt to show for it. Despite destroying Kyler Murray in Week 1, Kansas City isn’t a pass defense to fear. Last year the Chiefs gave up the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate while sitting at ninth in yards per attempt and fourth in deep passing yards. The one issue Herbert could have is if the Chiefs’ pass rush can get home. Last year Kansas City was fifth in pressure rate and eighth in blitz rate. Herbert had the 12th-highest completion rate difference when blitzed and the 10th-lowest passer rating against the blitz (minimum 200 dropbacks). The scoring environment is nice, but Herbert could disappoint this week. He’s a mid-range QB1.

Patrick Mahomes: Last year, the Bolts’ pass defense was 13th in yards allowed per attempt and 14th in passing touchdowns allowed. Mahomes carved them up in their two meetings, completing 63.7% of his passes and averaging 335 passing yards with a 6:3 passing touchdown to interception ratio. In those two games, Mahomes went deep on 11.1% of his passes, which isn’t likely to be the battle plan in Week 2. Outside of those games, Mahomes had a 9.7% deep rate last year, down to 7.7% through one game of the 2022 season. Mahomes should keep things short and let his receivers do that work against a team that allowed the seventh-fewest deep passing yards last year. Mahomes is a top 3-5 fantasy quarterback again this week.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler wasn’t alone last week in the backfield. Ekeler only played 49% of the Chargers’ snaps, which is odd considering he only dropped below 58% of snaps twice during the entire 2021 season. The Bolts have referenced wanting to keep Ekeler fresh by working in other backs. It’s one thing to hear about it and quite another to see it unfold. The biggest concern was Ekler’s 38.2% route-per-dropback rate. Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel stealing some early-down work isn’t a massive concern, but with them eating into his routes, it’s something to watch, and it drops Ekeler into low-end RB1 territory. I don’t want to overreact to a one-week sample of usage, but if we see this continue into Week 2, it could be time to press the silent alarm button. Austin Ekeler was the RB8 and RB5 last year in his two games against the Chiefs, averaging 16.5 touches and 94.5 total yards. Kansas City is a juicy matchup for Ekeler, provided he gets the work. Last year, the Chiefs allowed the second-highest yards per attempt and ranked 26th in DVOA against receiving backs. They saw the fifth-most RB targets while permitting the fourth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Last week, before the Chiefs achieved the full thrashing of Arizona, Edwards-Helaire was operating as the lead back with 10 touches (Jerick McKinnon had four, Isiah Pacheco two). Edwards-Helaire secured all three of his targets and, in total, turned his 10 touches into 74 total yards. His 2.88 yards after contact per attempt in this small sample was strikingly similar to his rookie season (3.03). While the Chargers were eighth in DVOA against running backs through the air last year, they allowed the third-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns. After allowing Josh Jacobs to run for 5.7 yards per carry last week, the Chargers don’t look any different from the team that finished last year 28th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. CEH is a strong RB2 again in Week 2.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Allen has been ruled out for Week 2.

Mike Williams: Williams flopped in Week 1. There’s no way around it. Despite leading the team with 31 routes, he only saw an 11.8% target share with one air yard. Yes, you read that right. One air yard. His 3.8 aDOT in Week 1 was reminiscent of last year’s start to the season when it was 9.8 through three games. Yes, I know this is more extreme. I’m not ready to press the panic button for a player who will be leaned on by Herbert this week with Keenan Allen likely out. The talent is still there. Williams was fifth in route wins last year. Last year he averaged nine targets against Kansas City with one outstanding game (seven receptions, 122 receiving yards, WR1) and one dud (WR46). Williams ran about 84% of his routes on the outside last week, which means he’ll match up with seventh-round rookie Jaylen Watson and Rashad Fenton. Fenton allowed a 69.2% catch rate and 91.2 passer rating last year. Herbert should take advantage of Williams’ size against the 5-11, 193-pound Fenton.

Joshua Palmer: Palmer finished second among wideouts in routes run last week (25). He was on the boundary for 60% of his routes, which could continue or heighten this week if DeAndre Carter reprises the slot role. Palmer was only targeted on 12.0% of his routes, which was wretched. Palmer didn’t display the ability to draw targets at a high rate last year (18.1%, 76th) nor be efficient with them (1.31 yards per route run, 83rd), so count me below consensus on Palmer hype entering Week 2. Palmer could have a solid day simply based on volume against Watson and Fenton, but don’t expect a moon shot game. Palmer is a WR4 with upside.

DeAndre Carter: If you’re looking for a deep league or last-second start candidate with upside, it’s Carter. He came off the bench last week and ran from the slot on 71.4% of his snaps. He drew a target on 28.5% of his routes. Last year in the four games where he ran 25 or more routes with Washington, he posted yards per route run marks 1.7 or higher three times (1.8, 1.7, 2.1). If Carter is the primary slot receiver again this week, I love his potential upside against L’Jarius Sneed. Last year Sneed allowed a 75.0% catch rate and 100.5 passer rating in coverage.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: OK. I’ll mention before we get into discussing Smith-Schuster that I was out. All the way out on Smith-Schuster for 2022. If I was wrong about him, I’ll own the L happily. OK, now to Smith-Schuster. He was second among the wide receivers in routes (one fewer than Marquez Valdes-Scantling) while leading the group with a 20.5% target share and 54 air yards (2.47 yards per route run). He rotated between the slot (42.9%) and outside. I’m curious if we see his slot rate climb higher this week. When he’s outside, he’ll match up with Michael Davis and Asante Samuel Jr. (assuming J.C. Jackson remains out). Davis allowed a 55.0% catch rate and 97.4 passer rating last year. Samuel gave up a 67.9% catch rate and 101.0 passer rating. Why I think Smith-Schuster’s slot usage could climb is to take advantage of Bryce Callahan. Callahan stands at 5-9, which would be advantageous from the jump for Smith-Schuster (6-1). Callahan allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 102.0 passer rating last season.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling was just a guy last week. He only drew a 10.3% target share despite running a route on 80.4% of dropbacks. With only one red zone target and lacking the deep role (zero deep targets), he’s week flex play for Week 2. He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Davis and Samuel.

Mecole Hardman: Hardman is the usage powder keg that could explode in Week 2. Hardman only ran a route on 60.9% of Mahomes’ dropbacks, but the blowout could be responsible for part of this. Hardman was utilized from the slot on 63% of his routes which pins him against Callahan in Week 2. This big-time love for Hardman comes from his high leverage target usage. He was the only wide receiver to see a deep target (two) in Week 1 while also leading the way in red zone targets (three). Unless you’re in a deeper league or dynasty format, you likely won’t have to delve down to Hardman for a flex in Week 2, but if you’re in this spot, the reward could be substantial.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Everett’s Week 1 usage was nice. He ran a route on 67.6% of dropbacks. In a perfect world, would we want that closer to 75%? Sure, but his other peripherals were encouraging. While he only commanded an 11.8% target share, he led the team with two red zone targets and managed 2.35 yards per route run. These are numbers we can definitely live with. The Chiefs were a middle-of-the-road matchup last year, ranking 17th in DVOA and 15th in receptions and receiving yards allowed to tight ends.

Travis Kelce: Kelce was Kelce in Week 1. He ranked fourth in target share (23.1%), first in receiving yards (121) and tied for first in red zone targets (two) among tight ends. Last season Kelce destroyed the Chargers, and he’s primed to do it again in 2022. He averaged a ridiculous 12 targets, 8.5 receptions, and 147.5 receiving yards against the Bolts, finishing as the TE4 and TE1. After allowing Darren Waller to rumble for 79 yards on four catches last week, the Chargers’ defense closely resembles the squad that ranked 23rd in DVOA with the most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends last year.

*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*