Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Tom Brady, Khalil Herbert, Romeo Doubs (2022)
Through three weeks of the fantasy season, managers have a good idea of where their team is headed. Maybe you’re 3-0 and gearing up for a playoff run. Or maybe you’re 0-3 and looking to move pieces for next year. Either way, there are deals to make.
Luckily, FantasyPros has you covered. Not only is there the ‘Who Should I Trade?’ tool where you can get instant trade feedback, but every week in this space, we’ll dig even deeper into players who should be moved. Of course, there will be the classic one-for-one deals but also deals where multiple pieces would equate to one piece, which will be indicated with a ‘-plus’ next to the players’ name.
The Reasoning: It’s been a weird off-season for both Derek Carr and Tom Brady. Most know of the details of Brady’s, from missing over a week of the pre-season for reasons unknown to the tabloid frenzy of his marriage. And that’s not even the football side of things where Brady has a new coach in Todd Bowles and is (again) without Rob Gronkowski (retirement), was without Chris Godwin for two weeks (injury) and didn’t have Mike Evans last week due to a suspension. So it shouldn’t be a surprise he’s gotten off to a slower start than expected, throwing just three touchdowns in the Bucs’ first three games and only averaging 224 yards or almost 90 yards less than his season-long average last year.
Carr has also had a weird, albeit less dramatic, off-season. He welcomes new coach Josh McDaniels and is reunited with his college teammate Davante Adams via a trade with Green Bay. The effect has been a slight improvement in his fantasy numbers. Carr is averaging 283 passing yards compared to his career average of 250. He’s also thrown two touchdowns in each of the Raiders’ three games this season and is on pace to throw a career-best 34.
All that said, now is the perfect time to swap Carr for Brady. While Brady has, admittedly, started slowly, he’s still coming off a top-three fantasy season, and a top-10 fantasy finish two seasons ago. With everything going on in his personal and professional life this off-season, it’s reasonable to think he’s still ramping up early in the season. He’ll get Mike Evans back this week and will see the rest of his receiving corps — including Godwin — back to full strength soon. With Carr, what you’re seeing is what you’ll get. Brady can do better than that.
The Reasoning: In a battle of backup running backs, it’s easy to assess the better situation, i.e., who has a better chance of seeing playing time. If that were the case, Jamaal Williams would have won this battle. His fellow Lion running back D’Andre Swift has missed seven games out of a possible 33 in his two seasons in the league. And it was reported this week that Swift is likely to possibly miss two more games. Meanwhile, the Bears’ starting running back heading into the season — David Montgomery — has missed a total of just five games in three seasons. He did miss the rest of the Bears’ Week 3 game against the Texans but looks likely to suit up in Week 4.
But enough about injuries. In the case of Jamaal Williams and Khalil Herbert, Herbert is a lot closer to his starter (Montgomery) in talent than Williams is to his (Swift). Swift was considered a possible league winner before the season with elite talent. There is little chance of Williams usurping Swift’s starting job anytime soon.
Herbert, meanwhile, has been on a tear this season. Over the first two weeks, in limited action, he ran for 83 yards, and a score on just 13 carries for a healthy 6.4 yards-per-carry. He managed to up that efficiency as he took over for Montgomery in Week 3, totaling 157 yards and two touchdowns on the ground on just 20 carries. As a result, Herbert is forcing the Bears’ hand when it comes to who is leading the backfield and is a good bet to continue seeing action, unlike Williams, who will return to his supporting role when Swift returns.
The Reasoning: Even before Romeo Doubs’ mini-breakout in Week 3 of the regular season, the Doubs hype train was running at full steam. Thanks to injuries and a significant departure in the off-season, the Green Bay receivers’ room had ample opportunities available to the first player that took them. Doubs was that player, making plays in training camp and earning praise from his quarterback and reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers. By the time fantasy drafts were happening, the fourth-round pick of the actual NFL Draft had managed to sneak onto the back-end of fantasy rosters.
It didn’t take long for that lottery ticket to pay off. Thanks to more injuries, namely Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson, Doubs was the top choice of Rodgers’ this weekend when he led the team in targets (eight), receptions (eight) and yards (73) and scored.
Jahan Dotson has had the exact opposite path to playing time as Doubs. Drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, it wasn’t exactly a surprise to see him turning heads in training camp or playing with the starters when the games started counting. And while it took a couple of weeks for Doubs to ramp up the fantasy production, Dotson shot out like a cannon, scoring twice in Week 1 and again in Week 2 before turning in a (relative) dud in Week 3, catching just two balls for 10 yards and no touchdowns.
But despite Dotson and Doubs seemingly going in opposite directions, I would prefer Dotson and would use the hype surrounding Doubs to get him. Dotson, as previously mentioned, is a first-round pick and has done nothing that would indicate less playing time. Furthermore, the Washington offense currently passes the ball the fourth most times of any team in the league.
Doubs, meanwhile, will have to continue fighting for attention on an offense that is running the ball more and more and currently sits 22nd in pass attempts. Doubs is also only seeing this attention (for now) because of short-term injuries to other receivers, which will resolve themselves shortly.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.