Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 6 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

And be sure to check out our weekly trade value chart with updated values for all players

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

In his first career start, Pickett finished fourth in air yards. However, it required him to have the most pass attempts last week with 52. While the number of pass attempts isn’t ideal for only 191 air yards, Pickett’s play has impacted the Pittsburgh wide receivers.

For reference, Mitchell Trubisky had an aDOT under 3.4 in half the games this season. As Pickett develops and gets more comfortable with his receivers, the Pittsburgh offense should include more vertical shots downfield. Fantasy players should expect more productive play out of George Pickens and Chase Claypool over the next few weeks.

Over the first two weeks, Wentz had a 4.3 aDOT and completed 66 percent of his pass attempts. In Weeks 3 and 4, the Commanders’ quarterback had a 2.8 aDOT and completed only 59 percent of his pass attempts.

Last week, we saw Wentz bounce back. Not only did he finish second in air yards, but he had his best aDOT of the season (5.9). The difference was the amount of pressure on the quarterback. Wentz was sacked 11 times in Weeks 3 and 4 but got sacked only three times on Sunday.

If the Commanders can protect him, Wentz can push the ball downfield. Unfortunately, Washington faces some tough defenses over the next few weeks, starting with the Chicago Bears on Thursday night.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

There were several deep pass attempts in Week 5 that made me think of the “(expletive) it! He’s down there somewhere” meme. Davis, Lockett, Adams and Brown all had aDOTs of 14 or higher last week. Yet, the four receivers averaged only 5.8 targets between them.

Fantasy players shouldn’t expect another three receptions for 100-plus air yards and two touchdowns in a game from Davis or Adams anytime soon. Also, if you have Brown on your roster, whether it’s a redraft or dynasty league, now is the time to sell. His 23.5 half-point PPR fantasy output last week basically matched his career total entering the game.

After finishing 11th in air yards in Week 4 with 69, Reynolds had a repeat performance in Week 5 with 70 air yards. The return of Amon-Ra St. Brown didn’t impact Reynolds’ air yards or targets, as both numbers improved from the week before.

St. Brown played only 32% of the snaps, while Reynolds played 91%. The ankle injury obviously impacted St. Brown’s play, but Detroit is on a bye in Week 6. With St. Brown getting better and the eventual career debut for Jameson Williams looming, Reynolds’ days on this list are coming to an end.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

If you had to start Will Dissly this week after losing Kyle Pitts and Logan Thomas like I did, please accept my condolences. Last week, Dissly had 31 air yards on four targets (7.8 aDOT). In Week 4, he and Colby Parkinson made the top-10 list with 52 combined air yards on five targets.

It shouldn’t be surprising that Fant had the fourth-most air yards among tight ends this week with 38. Meanwhile, Dissly and Parkinson combined for nine air yards on three targets. Good luck figuring out this Seattle tight-end room. I’m running as far away from it as possible.

The Cardinals get their star receiver DeAndre Hopkins back in Week 7. Meanwhile, Ertz has been one of Kyler Murray‘s go-to weapons this season. The veteran tight end is second on the team in almost every statistical category, including receptions (28), targets (41), receiving yards (229), touchdowns (two) and air yards (144).

The return of Hopkins will throw a wet blanket on Ertz’s volume. Last year, the veteran receiver averaged 43.2 air yards per game and had a 6.8 aDOT. Furthermore, it’s only a matter of time until the rookie Trey McBride earns more playing time. Now is the time to explore trade options for Ertz.

The Top Five Underperformers

Having Hill listed as a tight end is absurd. He has one target this season and a career average of 0.7 targets per game. Still, anyone desperate or lucky enough to start Hill last week likely won their fantasy matchup thanks to his four total touchdowns.

The only other time I remember something this ridiculous being allowed was in 2018 when Yahoo allowed Jaylen Samuels to be eligible as a tight end. The so-called tight end averaged 14 rushing attempts per game during the fantasy playoffs that year. All moaning and groaning aside, the next time you need a Hail Mary option at tight end, Hill is your guy.

In Week 1, A.J. Brown had 92 air yards while Smith failed to catch any of his four targets. Since then, Smith has 207 air yards and a 6.1 aDOT, while Brown has 183 air yards and a 5.7 aDOT. Furthermore, Smith has two more targets than Brown since Week 1.

Last week, Brown had 28 air yards on seven targets while Smith had 22 air yards on 11 targets. While it appeared Brown was Batman and Smith was Robin in Week 1, right now, both wide receivers are must-start options every week. The only question is: which one will be more effective with his targets?

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.