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Week 12 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Nov 25, 2022
Fantasy Football Week 12 Quick Grades, Start / Sit Advice

Welcome to Week 12, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 12 QB Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 12
1 A+ Josh Allen BUF DET
2 A Patrick Mahomes II KC LAR
3 A- Jalen Hurts PHI GB
4 A- Tua Tagovailoa MIA HOU
5 B+ Justin Herbert LAC ARI
6 B+ Joe Burrow CIN TEN
7 B+ Lamar Jackson BAL JAC
8 B Dak Prescott DAL NYG
9 B Geno Smith SEA LV
10 B Kyler Murray ARI LAC
11 B- Tom Brady TB CLE
12 B- Jimmy Garoppolo SF NO
13 C Trevor Lawrence JAC BAL
14 C Kirk Cousins MIN NE
15 C Daniel Jones NYG DAL
16 C Derek Carr LV SEA
17 C- Aaron Rodgers GB PHI
18 D+ Marcus Mariota ATL WAS
19 D Jared Goff DET BUF
20 D Taylor Heinicke WAS ATL
21 D Jacoby Brissett CLE TB
22 D- Kenny Pickett PIT IND
23 D- Matt Ryan IND PIT
24 F Ryan Tannehill TEN CIN
25 F Russell Wilson DEN CAR
26 F Mac Jones NE MIN
27 F Justin Fields CHI NYJ
28 F Mike White NYJ CHI
29 F Andy Dalton NO SF
30 F Kyle Allen HOU MIA
31 F Bryce Perkins LAR KC
32 F Sam Darnold CAR DEN
33 F Trevor Siemian CHI NYJ
34 F Colt McCoy ARI LAC
35 F John Wolford LAR KC
36 F Davis Mills HOU MIA
37 F Joe Flacco NYJ CHI
38 F Baker Mayfield CAR DEN
39 F Desmond Ridder ATL WAS
40 F Zach Wilson NYJ CHI
41 F Jordan Love GB PHI
42 F Malik Willis TEN CIN
43 F Tyler Huntley BAL JAC
44 F Trace McSorley ARI LAC
45 F Jameis Winston NO SF
46 F Bailey Zappe NE MIN
47 F Gardner Minshew II PHI GB
48 F Sam Howell WAS ATL
49 F Case Keenum BUF DET
50 F Sam Ehlinger IND PIT

Notes

Tom Brady: Brady is the QB22 in fantasy points per game, with only two QB1 weeks on his 2022 resume. The Buccaneers’ offense has been unable to fire on all cylinders this season. I don’t blame Brady for tossing his hands up weekly because his level of play isn’t the problem. Brady is eighth in PFF passing grade, ninth in big-time throw rate, and 17th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Brady has had to contend with the third-most drops and his receivers ranking 58th in yards after the catch per target. The Browns offer another matchup that could lead to this offense finding its rhythm. Since Week 5, Cleveland has been 19th in passing yards per game, 27th in EPA per dropback, and 24th in explosive pass rate allowed. Brady is at the QB1 borderline.

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has been playing out of his mind over the last three weeks with two top-ten fantasy weeks (QB10, QB4). Since Week 7, he’s seventh in PFF passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt and sixth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Since Week 5, the Bucs are 13th in success rate per dropback, 17th in EPA per dropback, and 14th in explosive pass rate allowed. They are a difficult matchup for Brissett, but they have fallen from their elite perch. The biggest worry for Brissett is against the Tampa Bay pass rush, which is sixth in pressure rate and seventh in blitz rate. Brissett has been extremely good against pressure this year, though. He ranks 11th in PFF pressured passing grade, third in pressured yards per attempt, and tenth in pressure-adjusted completion rate (minimum 20 pressured dropbacks). Brissett is a QB2 with QB1 upside.

Mike White: Last season, we got a four-game stretch of White under center. He was a below-league-average quarterback, and that’s probably being kind, but the Jets look at him as an upgrade over Zach Wilson. That should be telling. White was ranked 42nd in PFF passing grade, 18th in yards per attempt, and 15th in adjusted completion. He was a check-down artist ranking 43rd in aDOT. He was the QB2 and QB27 in fantasy in his two full starts. Luckily for White, the Bears’ defense has no claws. They are 24th in pressure rate and 28th in blitz rate, so White should have plenty of time in the pocket. Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the fifth-highest success rate per dropback, second-highest EPA per dropback, and rank 28th in explosive pass rate. White is a viable QB2 option.

Marcus Mariota: Mariota is the QB17 in fantasy points per game, with four QB1 performances this year. Mariota has been dreadful as a passer, ranking 21st in PFF passing grade, 36th in adjusted completion rate, and eighth in turn-over worthy play rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). His fantasy value is tied to his legs, as he’s sixth in rushing yards, third in rushing touchdowns, and third in red zone carries. Mariota is a QB2 facing an improved Commanders’ secondary. Since Week 6, they are sixth in passing yards per game, fourth in EPA per dropback, and 14th in pass defense DVOA.

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke is a QB2. In three of his five starts, he’s finished as the QB15 or higher (QB13, QB8, QB15). His floor has bottomed out over the last two games, as he’s failed to throw for a touchdown either week. Heinicke is duking it out with Mariota for the ugliest starting quarterback play in the NFL. Ok, maybe it’s not that bad, but it has been tough to watch. Heinicke is 37th in PFF passing grade, 33rd in adjusted completion rate, and first in turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Luckily for Heinicke, the Falcons are still a horrible pass defense. Since Week 6, they are 30th in pass defense DVOA, ranking 27th in passing yards per game and 25th in EPA per dropback.

Russell Wilson: Wilson is a weekly QB2. Since Week 5, there’s been one game where he’s finished higher than QB20 (QB15). The falloff for Wilson has been tough to watch this season. He’s 27th in PFF passing grade, 27th in adjusted completion rate, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. The hope candle for this offense was extinguished long ago. Since Week 6, Carolina has conceded the 12th-highest success rate per dropback. They are also 20th in passing yards per game and 14th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Sam Darnold: I can’t craft you any pro-Darnold narrative. Not against Denver. This secondary is suffocating. The Broncos have held quarterbacks to the third-fewest passing yards per game, the fourth-lowest EPA per drop back, and the tenth-lowest explosive pass rate. The Broncos have surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The answer regarding Darnold is no. Just no.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Week 12 WR Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 12
1 A+ Tyreek Hill MIA HOU
2 A+ Stefon Diggs BUF DET
3 A+ Davante Adams LV SEA
4 A+ Justin Jefferson MIN NE
5 A+ DeAndre Hopkins ARI LAC
6 A+ CeeDee Lamb DAL NYG
7 A Amon-Ra St. Brown DET BUF
8 A Tee Higgins CIN TEN
9 A A.J. Brown PHI GB
10 A Jaylen Waddle MIA HOU
11 A Mike Evans TB CLE
12 A DK Metcalf SEA LV
13 A Terry McLaurin WAS ATL
14 A Gabe Davis BUF DET
15 A Amari Cooper CLE TB
16 A- Chris Olave NO SF
17 A- Christian Kirk JAC BAL
18 A- Chris Godwin TB CLE
19 A- Deebo Samuel SF NO
20 B+ Keenan Allen LAC ARI
21 B+ Tyler Lockett SEA LV
22 B+ Brandon Aiyuk SF NO
23 B Michael Pittman Jr. IND PIT
24 B JuJu Smith-Schuster KC LAR
25 B+ Jakobi Meyers NE MIN
26 B DeVonta Smith PHI GB
27 B Joshua Palmer LAC ARI
28 B Courtland Sutton DEN CAR
29 B Garrett Wilson NYJ CHI
30 B- Allen Lazard GB PHI
31 C+ George Pickens PIT IND
32 B- Tyler Boyd CIN TEN
33 C+ Christian Watson GB PHI
34 B- Darius Slayton NYG DAL
35 C+ DJ Moore CAR DEN
36 C+ Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE TB
37 C+ Treylon Burks TEN CIN
38 C+ Diontae Johnson PIT IND
39 C Parris Campbell IND PIT
40 C Darnell Mooney CHI NYJ
41 C Drake London ATL WAS
42 C Adam Thielen MIN NE
43 C Curtis Samuel WAS ATL
44 C Nico Collins HOU MIA
45 C Brandin Cooks HOU MIA
46 C Marquise Brown ARI LAC
47 C Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC LAR
48 C Michael Gallup DAL NYG
49 C- Jarvis Landry NO SF
50 C- Demarcus Robinson BAL JAC
51 C- Zay Jones JAC BAL
52 C- Mack Hollins LV SEA
53 C- Devin Duvernay BAL JAC
54 D+ Robert Woods TEN CIN
55 D+ Jahan Dotson WAS ATL
56 D+ Allen Robinson II LAR KC
57 D Julio Jones TB CLE
58 C- Alec Pierce IND PIT
59 D Van Jefferson LAR KC
60 D Isaiah McKenzie BUF DET
61 D Kendall Hinton DEN CAR
62 D Corey Davis NYJ CHI
63 D Kalif Raymond DET BUF
64 D Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR DEN
65 D- Marvin Jones Jr. JAC BAL
66 D- Randall Cobb GB PHI
67 D- DeAndre Carter LAC ARI
68 F Skyy Moore KC LAR
69 D- Noah Brown DAL NYG
70 D- K.J. Osborn MIN NE
71 F Elijah Moore NYJ CHI
72 F Chris Moore HOU MIA
73 F Ben Skowronek LAR KC
74 F Justin Watson KC LAR
75 F Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WAS
76 F Chase Claypool CHI NYJ
77 F Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN CIN
78 F D.J. Chark Jr. DET BUF
79 F DeVante Parker NE MIN
80 F Laviska Shenault Jr. CAR DEN
81 F Quez Watkins PHI GB
82 F Tyquan Thornton NE MIN
83 F Nelson Agholor NE MIN
84 F Damiere Byrd ATL WAS
85 F Marquise Goodwin SEA LV
86 F Denzel Mims NYJ CHI
87 F David Bell CLE TB
88 F Josh Reynolds DET BUF
89 F Trent Sherfield MIA HOU
90 F Richie James Jr. NYG DAL
91 F Rashid Shaheed NO SF
92 F Jauan Jennings SF NO
93 F Sammy Watkins GB PHI
94 F Equanimeous St. Brown CHI NYJ
95 F Greg Dortch ARI LAC
96 F Ja’Marr Chase CIN TEN
97 F Kenny Golladay NYG DAL
98 F Tre’Quan Smith NO SF
99 F A.J. Green ARI LAC
100 F Braxton Berrios NYJ CHI
101 F Dante Pettis CHI NYJ
102 D+ Khalil Shakir BUF DET
103 F Isaiah Hodgins NYG DAL
104 F Keelan Cole Sr. LV SEA
105 F Robbie Anderson ARI LAC
106 F Dyami Brown WAS ATL
107 F Kendrick Bourne NE MIN
108 F Phillip Dorsett II HOU MIA
109 F Trenton Irwin CIN TEN
110 F Michael Bandy LAC ARI
111 F James Proche II BAL JAC
112 F Shi Smith CAR DEN
113 F Scotty Miller TB CLE
114 F Tutu Atwell LAR KC
115 F Zach Pascal PHI GB
116 F Lawrence Cager NYG DAL
117 F Brandon Powell LAR KC
118 F Byron Pringle CHI NYJ
119 F Steven Sims Jr. PIT IND
120 F Jalen Virgil DEN CAR
121 F KhaDarel Hodge ATL WAS
122 F Jameson Williams DET BUF
123 F Jamal Agnew JAC BAL
124 F Samori Toure GB PHI
125 F Cam Sims WAS ATL
126 F Marcus Johnson NYG DAL
127 F Marquez Callaway NO SF
128 F Montrell Washington DEN CAR
129 F Breshad Perriman TB CLE
130 F Tom Kennedy DET BUF
131 F Gunner Olszewski PIT IND
132 F Ray-Ray McCloud SF NO
133 F Cedrick Wilson Jr. MIA HOU
134 F Ashton Dulin IND PIT
135 F Cody Hollister TEN CIN
136 F Trent Taylor CIN TEN
137 F Lance McCutcheon LAR KC
138 F Brandon Johnson DEN CAR
139 F Jalen Reagor MIN NE
140 F Anthony Schwartz CLE TB
141 F Danny Gray SF NO
142 F KaVontae Turpin DAL NYG
143 F Jalen Tolbert DAL NYG
144 F Michael Woods II CLE TB
145 F Kevin White NO SF
146 F DeSean Jackson BAL JAC
147 F Frank Darby ATL WAS
148 F Marcus Kemp KC LAR
149 F Keke Coutee IND PIT
150 F Cornell Powell KC LAR
151 F Miles Boykin PIT IND
152 F Velus Jones Jr. CHI NYJ
153 F Stanley Berryhill III DET BUF
154 F Tanner Gentry BUF DET
155 F Mike Strachan IND PIT
156 F Jeff Smith NYJ CHI
157 F Chester Rogers CLE TB
158 F Tylan Wallace BAL JAC
159 F Tim Jones JAC BAL
160 F N’Keal Harry CHI NYJ
161 F Amari Rodgers HOU MIA
162 F River Cracraft MIA HOU
163 F DJ Turner LV SEA
164 F Stanley Morgan Jr. CIN TEN

Notes

Courtland Sutton: Sutton is the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t finished a week higher than WR26 since Week 4. With Jeudy out the last two games, he’s averaged nine targets (26.9% target share), 5.5 receptions, and 73 scoreless receiving yards. His 2.35 yards per route run last week was his highest single-game mark since Week 3. Sutton is eighth in deep targets and 22nd in red zone targets (one touchdown). Sutton is a WR3 that will run about 86% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (51.7% catch rate, 31.3 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (72.7% catch rate, 106.6 passer rating). Horn hasn’t shadowed all season. Sutton has some hope, but he has to make the most of his targets against Henderson.

Demarcus Robinson: Before anyone gets carried away with Robinson’s Week 11 performance realize that’s only the second time this season he’s eclipsed 60 receiving yards or WR4 status. He’s finished outside the top 80 wide receivers in fantasy five times. Robinson is 44th in PFF receiving grade, 56th in yards per route run, and 54th in targets per route run. Robinson is a WR5/6 that will run about 92% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (58.8% catch rate, 80.5 passer rating) and Darious Williams (58.8% catch rate, 87.5 passer rating).

Devin Duvernay: Duvernay is a similar crapshoot as Robinson. He’s the WR53 in fantasy points per game with only three games as a WR3 or better. He’s finished outside the top 60 fantasy wideouts in four of his last five games. Duvernay has a 12.8% target share and a 15.3% target per route run rate (88th). He’s a deep league dart throw flex at best that will run about 69% of his routes against Campbell and Williams.

Christian Kirk: Kirk is the WR12 in fantasy sporting a 24.6% target share (23rd), 27.7% target per route run rate (14th), and a 28.1% air yard share (29th). Kirk is fourth in deep targets while also seeing ten downfield (28th) targets. Kirk is 21st in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). The Ravens have split slot coverage over the last few weeks between Marlon Humphrey (72.7% catch rate, 52.8 passer rating) and Kyle Hamilton (71.4% catch rate, 80.7 passer rating). Kirk is a WR2.

Allen Robinson: Last week, Robinson secured a touchdown to finish as the WR18 for the week. Robinson still hasn’t logged a game of at least 70 receiving yards all season. He has a 15.2% target share and ranks fourth among wide receivers in red zone targets (only three touchdowns). Robinson is on his last leg, ranking 109th in yards after the catch and 87th in yards per route run. Robinson is a WR5 that will run about 72% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (61.5% catch rate, 77.4 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (68.2% catch rate, 130.7 passer rating).

Van Jefferson: Last week, Jefferson saw a 91% route run rate declaring himself a full-time player in the offense. Since Week 9, he has had a 14.4% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, and 1.13 yards per route run. Jefferson has only one red zone look over his last three games. Jefferson is a deep league flex who will run about half his routes against McDuffie and Williams.

Chris Olave: Olave got back on track last week with 102 receiving yards as the WR7. Olave remains a rookie sensation deserving of all the hype. He’s 18th in target share (25.8%), 12th in target per route run rate (28.3%), and fourth in air yard share (40.2%). He also leads the NFL in deep targets while ranking 11th in yards per route run. Olave can toast this secondary that’s 31st in DVOA against deep passing giving up the 11th-highest deep completion rate. Olave will run about 71% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (77.3% catch rate, 101.5 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (59.6% catch rate, 82.3 passer rating). Olave is a WR2.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is up to WR20 in fantasy points per game, as he’s having a fantastic season. Aiyuk has a 22.5% target share and 28.5% air yard share with nine red zone targets (22nd). He’s been a top-20 wide receiver with at least 80 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s 13th in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Aiyuk is a WR2.

Diontae Johnson: Over the last two games without Chase Claypool, Johnson has seen his target share dip to 15.6%, with a 25% end zone target share, 16.5% air yard share, and 1.05 yards per route run. Johnson has been a floor play all season as the WR45 in fantasy points per game, but the floor has fallen out now. He hasn’t finished as a WR3 or better since Week 5. The Steelers have force-fed him 11 red zone targets since Week 5, and Johnson still doesn’t have a touchdown this season. Johnson is a WR4 that will run about 89% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (59.3% catch rate, 75.6 passer rating) and Brandon Facyson (72.7% catch rate, 110.0 passer rating).

George Pickens: Since Week 10, Pickens has a 15.6% target share averaging 57.5 receiving yards with 1.53 yards per route run. He was the WR26 and WR11 over the last two weeks. Pickens only has two red zone looks over his last four games, and it hasn’t mattered as he’s scored twice in that period. Pickens is a WR3 that will run about 87% of his routes against Gilmore and Facyson. Pickens has outproduced Johnson since taking off in Week 4 with four WR2 or better weeks.

Michael Pittman: With Ryan back under center, Pittman has a 26.7% target share, 33.1% air yard share, and 2.17 yards per route run. The problem for Pittman all season is that it’s all hollow volume. Pittman has only one deep target and six red zone targets all season. Pittman has been targeted once inside the 20-yard line since Week 4. That’s egregious. Pittman is a WR3 that will run about 73% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (57.5% catch rate, 83.7 passer rating) and Levi Wallace (57.1% catch rate, 76.0 passer rating).

Drake London: With Kyle Pitts sidelined, London could vacuum up targets in this run-first offense. London has had no issues demanding work this year, ranking 13th in target share (27.1%) and 11th in target per route run rate (11th). The problem has been the raw passing volume (5.9 targets per game), but that could be curtailed moving forward as Atlanta has a depth chart of water boys running routes behind Pitts. London is 17th in PFF receiving grade and 50th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He’s been Mariota’s go-to near the goal line ranking ninth in red zone targets. London is a WR4 that will run about 55% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (61.8% catch rate, 103.2 passer rating).

Terry McLaurin: With Heinicke under center, McLaurin has a 31.6% target share, 25% end zone target share, and 54.9% air yard share. Since Week 7, McLaurin has been fifth in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Last week’s WR43 finish was his lowest (WR11, WR17, WR26, WR10), with Heinicke chucking him passes. McLaurin is a WR2 that will run about 68% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (67.5% catch rate, 130.6 passer rating) and Darren Hall (70.8% catch rate, 112.0 passer rating).

Fantas Football Start-Sit Assistant

Week 12 RB Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 12
1 A+ Austin Ekeler LAC ARI
2 A+ Derrick Henry TEN CIN
3 A Kenneth Walker III SEA LV
4 A Christian McCaffrey SF NO
5 A Josh Jacobs LV SEA
6 A Jonathan Taylor IND PIT
7 A Dalvin Cook MIN NE
8 A Travis Etienne Jr. JAC BAL
9 A Jeff Wilson Jr. MIA HOU
10 A- Saquon Barkley NYG DAL
11 A- Nick Chubb CLE TB
12 A- Aaron Jones GB PHI
13 A- Rhamondre Stevenson NE MIN
14 B+ Tony Pollard DAL NYG
15 B+ James Conner ARI LAC
16 B+ Alvin Kamara NO SF
17 B Rachaad White TB CLE
18 B Dameon Pierce HOU MIA
19 B Najee Harris PIT IND
20 B Miles Sanders PHI GB
21 B- David Montgomery CHI NYJ
22 B- Antonio Gibson WAS ATL
23 B- Devin Singletary BUF DET
24 B- Jamaal Williams DET BUF
25 C+ Latavius Murray DEN CAR
26 C+ Samaje Perine CIN TEN
27 C+ Michael Carter NYJ CHI
28 C Isiah Pacheco KC LAR
29 C D’Onta Foreman CAR DEN
30 C Cordarrelle Patterson ATL WAS
31 C Ezekiel Elliott DAL NYG
32 C Brian Robinson Jr. WAS ATL
33 C D’Andre Swift DET BUF
34 C Elijah Mitchell SF NO
35 C Damien Harris NE MIN
36 C- Gus Edwards BAL JAC
37 C- Kyren Williams LAR KC
38 D+ Cam Akers LAR KC
39 D Jerick McKinnon KC LAR
40 D Kenyan Drake BAL JAC
41 C- Tyler Allgeier ATL WAS
42 D Kareem Hunt CLE TB
43 D AJ Dillon GB PHI
44 D- James Robinson NYJ CHI
45 D- James Cook BUF DET
46 F Dontrell Hilliard TEN CIN
47 F Chuba Hubbard CAR DEN
48 F Alexander Mattison MIN NE
49 F Isaiah Spiller LAC ARI
50 F Justin Jackson DET BUF
51 F Keaontay Ingram ARI LAC
52 F Kenneth Gainwell PHI GB
53 F Matt Breida NYG DAL
54 F Trestan Ebner CHI NYJ
55 F Deon Jackson IND PIT
56 F Boston Scott PHI GB
57 F Marlon Mack DEN CAR
58 F Justice Hill BAL JAC
59 F JaMycal Hasty JAC BAL
60 F Rex Burkhead HOU MIA
61 F Ameer Abdullah LV SEA
62 F Travis Homer SEA LV
63 F Raheem Blackshear CAR DEN
64 F Ke’Shawn Vaughn TB CLE
65 F Nyheim Hines BUF DET
66 F Chris Evans CIN TEN
67 F Raheem Mostert MIA HOU
68 F Ty Johnson NYJ CHI
69 F Caleb Huntley ATL WAS
70 F Zack Moss IND PIT
71 F Brandon Bolden LV SEA
72 F Sony Michel LAC ARI
73 F Myles Gaskin MIA HOU
74 F David Johnson NO SF
75 F Salvon Ahmed MIA HOU
76 F Kyle Juszczyk SF NO
77 F Trayveon Williams CIN TEN
78 F Giovani Bernard TB CLE
79 F Devine Ozigbo DEN CAR
80 F Mark Ingram II NO SF
81 F Zamir White LV SEA
82 F Malik Davis DAL NYG
83 F Hassan Haskins TEN CIN
84 F Benny Snell Jr. PIT IND
85 F Eno Benjamin HOU MIA
86 F Dwayne Washington NO SF
87 F Jordan Wilkins IND PIT
88 F D’Ernest Johnson CLE TB
89 F Joshua Kelley LAC ARI
90 F Alec Ingold MIA HOU
91 F Reggie Gilliam BUF DET
92 F C.J. Ham MIN NE
93 F Avery Williams ATL WAS
94 F Dare Ogunbowale HOU MIA
95 F Darrell Henderson Jr. JAC BAL
96 F Duke Johnson Jr. BUF DET
97 F Ronald Jones II KC LAR
98 F Darrynton Evans CHI NYJ
99 F Corey Clement ARI LAC
100 F Patrick Ricard BAL JAC
101 F Zander Horvath LAC ARI
102 F Tyrion Davis-Price SF NO
103 F DeeJay Dallas SEA LV
104 F Jakob Johnson LV SEA
105 F Jordan Mason SF NO
106 F Keith Smith ATL WAS
107 F Ronnie Rivers LAR KC
108 F Malcolm Brown LAR KC
109 F Spencer Brown CAR DEN
110 F Derek Watt PIT IND
111 F Khari Blasingame CHI NYJ
112 F Gary Brightwell NYG DAL
113 F Jonathan Williams WAS ATL
114 F Michael Burton KC LAR
115 F Patrick Taylor Jr. GB PHI
116 F Pierre Strong Jr. NE MIN
117 F Kene Nwangwu MIN NE
118 F Adam Prentice NO SF
119 F Mike Davis BAL JAC
120 F Snoop Conner JAC BAL
121 F Brittain Brown LV SEA
122 F Tory Carter TEN CIN

Notes

Latavius Murray: Well, we finally have an undisputed workhorse in Denver. Time to rejoice, right? Not exactly. With Melvin Gordon gone and Chase Edmonds on the IR, Murray slides into a nearly every down role. This could not be any grosser. Among 69 running backs with at least 25 carries, Murray ranks 67th in yards after contact per attempt and 50th in PFF’s elusive rating. Murray has zero breakaway runs with his 74 carries. Last week he churned out 72 total yards with his 21 touches. He’s purely a gross volume play as an RB3 who likely outplays that ranking if he scores. Carolina has not been good at attempting to stop the run. Since Week 6, they are 24th in rushing yards per game, 22nd in EPA per rush, and 27th in explosive run rate allowed.

D’Onta Foreman: If the Panthers can keep this game close, they will ride Foreman. Foreman has eclipsed 25 carries with at least 115 rushing yards in two of his last four games. In the other two games where Carolina lost, he averaged nine touches and 22.5 total yards. Foreman can be crushed by game script in any week. He’s been an effective early-down hammer when Carolina can lean on him. Foreman ranks 30th in yards after contact per attempt, 23rd in breakaway rate, and 34th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Denver has toughened up against the run, ranking tenth in rushing yards per game, 15th in EPA per rush, and 11th in explosive run rate allowed since Week 6.

James Conner: Conner has been reinstalled as Arizona’s bell cow. He played 96% of the snaps in Week 10. Last week, his snap count and usage were noisy because the team pulled their starters late as they were getting truck sticked by San Francisco. Conner has played at least 71% of the snaps over the last three games averaging 17.3 touches and 68 total yards. Conner is 26th in juke rate, 28th in evaded tackles, and 27th in yards created per touch. Since Week 6, the Chargers remain one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They rank 31st in rushing yards per game, 28th in EPA per rush, and have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Conner is a borderline RB1.

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is averaging 21.7 touches and 118.1 total yards as the RB4 in fantasy. He’s second in opportunity share, fifth in weighted opportunities, and 21st in red zone touches. His pass-game involvement has helped pad his floor and ceiling. He’s 11th in target share, with the eighth-most receiving yards and ninth-most receptions among running backs. Jacobs will need the added points from grabs through the air. Seattle has also strengthened their run defense. Since Week 6, they are ninth in rushing yards per game, fourth in EPA per rush, and 13th in explosive run rate allowed. Over that period, they have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Jacobs is a volume-based RB1.

Kenneth Walker: Since Walker took over starting duties, he has averaged 22 touches and 106 total yards. He’s only once finished outside the top 24 running backs (RB25) and has posted three RB1 weeks. He’s ranked 27th in yards after contact per attempt, third in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Something magical happened in Week 10. Walker commanded a 23.5% target share while rocking a 61% route run rate. But wait, this can’t be. I was told that Walker couldn’t catch passes during the NFL draft process. (Whispers…he can) over his last two games, he’s seen a 48.1% route run rate. Seattle expanding this part of his game will make him matchup-proof. Walker will gash the Raiders this week. Since Week 6, Las Vegas is 29th in rushing yards per game, 17th in EPA per rush, and 15th in explosive run rate. Walker can also crush the Raiders through the air. Las Vegas is 32nd in DVOA against pass-catching backs allowing the most receiving yards and eighth-highest yards per reception. Walker is a stud RB1.

Cam Akers: Last week, Akers played the early down grinder role seeing 14 carries, matching his season-high 61 rushing yards, and playing 39% of the snaps. Akers has shown some life over the last two weeks with 3.07 and 3.67 yards after contact per attempt marks, but his season-long numbers are still dreadful. Akers ranks 52nd in yards after contact per attempt, and he hasn’t recorded a breakaway run this season. Kansas City is a defense that can be run on. Since Week 6, they are fifth in yards per carry (5.0), 20th in EPA per rush, and 24th in rushing success rate allowed. Akers is a low-ceiling RB3/4.

Kyren Williams: If choosing a back from this backfield, it should be Williams. Last week he played 55% of the snaps with eight touches and 44 total yards while operating as the passing down back. His 3.63 yards after contact per attempt is encouraging, but take it with a grain of salt, as it’s only with an eight carry sample size. Kansas City is 27th in DVOA against receiving backs allowing the second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards. Williams is a viable PPR flex/RB4.

Week 12 TE Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 12
1 A+ Travis Kelce KC LAR
2 A- Mark Andrews BAL JAC
3 B+ Pat Freiermuth PIT IND
4 B+ T.J. Hockenson MIN NE
5 B Dalton Schultz DAL NYG
6 B- George Kittle SF NO
7 B- Dawson Knox BUF DET
8 C+ Gerald Everett LAC ARI
9 C Greg Dulcich DEN CAR
10 C Tyler Higbee LAR KC
11 C Foster Moreau LV SEA
12 D+ Hayden Hurst CIN TEN
13 C Evan Engram JAC BAL
14 D+ David Njoku CLE TB
15 D+ Cole Kmet CHI NYJ
16 D+ Juwan Johnson NO SF
17 C- Taysom Hill NO SF
18 D Tyler Conklin NYJ CHI
19 D Logan Thomas WAS ATL
20 D Noah Fant SEA LV
21 D Mike Gesicki MIA HOU
22 D- Robert Tonyan GB PHI
23 D- Trey McBride ARI LAC
24 D- Hunter Henry NE MIN
25 F Austin Hooper TEN CIN
26 F Jonnu Smith NE MIN
27 F Cade Otton TB CLE
28 F Will Dissly SEA LV
29 F Kylen Granson IND PIT
30 F Harrison Bryant CLE TB
31 F Jordan Akins HOU MIA
32 F Cameron Brate TB CLE
33 F Brock Wright DET BUF
34 F James Mitchell DET BUF
35 F Jack Stoll PHI GB
36 F Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN CIN
37 F Noah Gray KC LAR
38 F Mo Alie-Cox IND PIT
39 F Tommy Tremble CAR DEN
40 F Colby Parkinson SEA LV
41 F O.J. Howard HOU MIA
42 F Adam Trautman NO SF
43 F Josh Oliver BAL JAC
44 F Jody Fortson KC LAR
45 F C.J. Uzomah NYJ CHI
46 F Grant Calcaterra PHI GB
47 F MyCole Pruitt ATL WAS
48 F Zach Gentry PIT IND
49 F Jake Ferguson DAL NYG
50 F Tanner Hudson NYG DAL
51 F John Bates WAS ATL
52 F Ian Thomas CAR DEN
53 F Tre’ McKitty LAC ARI
54 F Dan Arnold JAC BAL
55 F Teagan Quitoriano HOU MIA
56 F Josiah Deguara GB PHI
57 F Geoff Swaim TEN CIN
58 F Eric Saubert DEN CAR
59 F Peyton Hendershot DAL NYG
60 F Parker Hesse ATL WAS
61 F Tyree Jackson PHI GB
62 F Durham Smythe MIA HOU
63 F Stephen Anderson ARI LAC
64 F Chris Myarick NYG DAL
65 F Anthony Firkser ATL WAS
66 F Quintin Morris BUF DET
67 F Johnny Mundt MIN NE
68 F Pharaoh Brown CLE TB
69 F Cole Turner WAS ATL
70 F Marcedes Lewis GB PHI
71 F Shane Zylstra DET BUF
72 F Brevin Jordan HOU MIA
73 F Connor Heyward PIT IND
74 F Eric Tomlinson DEN CAR
75 F Jelani Woods IND PIT
76 F Charlie Kolar BAL JAC
77 F Mitchell Wilcox CIN TEN
78 F Brycen Hopkins LAR KC
79 F Stone Smartt LAC ARI
80 F Ross Dwelley SF NO
81 F Tyler Kroft SF NO
82 F Stephen Sullivan CAR DEN
83 F Ryan Griffin CHI NYJ
84 F Maxx Williams ARI LAC
85 F Trevon Wesco CHI NYJ
86 F Chris Manhertz JAC BAL
87 F Tyler Davis GB PHI
88 F Richard Rodgers LAC ARI
89 F Nick Boyle BAL JAC
90 F Ko Kieft TB CLE
91 F Jesper Horsted LV SEA
92 F Charlie Woerner SF NO
93 F Sean McKeon DAL NYG
94 F Devin Asiasi CIN TEN
95 F Luke Farrell JAC BAL
96 F Jeremy Ruckert NYJ CHI
97 F Nick Muse MIN NE

Notes

Juwan Johnson: Johnson is the TE13 in fantasy with top ten tight end weeks in four of his last five games (TE2, TE8, TE4, TE6). This could be another top-ten week against a tough defense against tight ends. Johnson has a 13.3% target share and ranks 23rd in yards per route run. His high-value usage has been nice, with five deep targets (ninth) and seven red zone looks (11th). The 49ers are ninth in DVOA against tight ends, but Johnson’s hybrid role precludes him from usual tight end analysis. Johnson will run nearly half his routes (48%) from the slot where he’ll meet Jimmie Ward. Ward has been dreadful at defending the slot allowing all 23 targets in his coverage to be secured with a 113.2 passer rating. Johnson is a TE1.

George Kittle: Last week Kittle crushed the ultimate matchup for tight ends, but this week won’t be like that. Kittle will need every bit of his 19.4% target share (eighth) and 15.8% air yard share (eighth) to turn in a solid day. Kittle is seventh in yards per route run and sixth in YAC. The Saints are first in DVOA against tight ends, holding them to the lowest catch rate, eighth-lowest yards per reception, and only one receiving touchdown. Kittle is a TE1, but don’t expect smash numbers this week.

Pat Freiermuth: Since the departure of Claypool, Freiermuth has been a volume hog with a 29.7% target share (9.5 targets per game), 25% end zone target share, and 32% air yard share. Freiermuth’s breakout has quietly been happening all season. He’s sixth in PFF receiving grade and tenth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Freiermuth is the TE7 with the second-most deep targets among tight ends. Indy is 27th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the third-highest catch rate to the position. Freiermuth is a top-five tight end.

Cameron Brate: Brate and Cade Otton split the Bucs’ tight end role in the last game, with neither player eclipsing a 43.3% route run rate. That low route volume for each player makes it not worth chasing a streaming option against a defense that’s allowed the fourth-lowest catch rate and fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

David Njoku: Njoku wasn’t a full-time player in his first game back. He’s only logged a 42.2% route run rate, as Harrison Bryant led the way with 57.8% of the routes. The tight-end work for Cleveland was split, with Pharaoh Brown also getting into the mix (8.9% route run rate). Njoku’s 7.3% target share and 16% target per route run rate last week make it difficult to trust him as anything more than a TE2. Njoku remains ninth among tight ends in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets, so it’s possible he takes one to the house or gets a short porch touchdown. Tampa Bay has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game, the ninth-most receiving yards per game, and the seventh-highest catch rate to tight ends.

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is the TE15 in fantasy with a 13.9% target share and seven red zone targets (11th). Hurst is 17th in PFF receiving grade and 30th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Hurst is a TE2 with a mixed-bag matchup. Tennessee is seventh in DVOA against tight ends, holding them to the fifth-lowest catch rate but also surrendering the sixth-most receiving yards per game and fifth-highest yards per reception.

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has turned back into a pumpkin after a few weeks of his production rebounding. Since Week 8, he has had a 9.4% target share (three targets per game) with a 56.2% route run rate. He’s a touchdown-or-bust TE2 who has still seen two red zone targets over his last three games. Houston is 20th in DVOA against tight ends giving up the 12th-most receiving yards per game and ninth-highest yards per reception.

CTAs

Week 12 D/ST Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 12
1 A+ Dallas Cowboys DAL NYG
2 A Denver Broncos DEN CAR
3 A Baltimore Ravens BAL JAC
4 A- New England Patriots NE MIN
5 A- New York Jets NYJ CHI
6 B+ Kansas City Chiefs KC LAR
7 B Miami Dolphins MIA HOU
8 B San Francisco 49ers SF NO
9 B Philadelphia Eagles PHI GB
10 B Buffalo Bills BUF DET
11 B Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB CLE
12 B- Cincinnati Bengals CIN TEN
13 C+ Indianapolis Colts IND PIT
14 C+ Washington Commanders WAS ATL
15 C Tennessee Titans TEN CIN
16 C Pittsburgh Steelers PIT IND
17 C- Minnesota Vikings MIN NE
18 D+ Seattle Seahawks SEA LV
19 D+ New York Giants NYG DAL
20 D Chicago Bears CHI NYJ
21 D Atlanta Falcons ATL WAS
22 D Carolina Panthers CAR DEN
23 D- Los Angeles Chargers LAC ARI
24 F New Orleans Saints NO SF
25 F Green Bay Packers GB PHI
26 F Los Angeles Rams LAR KC
27 F Arizona Cardinals ARI LAC
28 F Las Vegas Raiders LV SEA
29 F Jacksonville Jaguars JAC BAL
30 F Cleveland Browns CLE TB
31 F Detroit Lions DET BUF
32 F Houston Texans HOU MIA

 

Week 12 K Start/Sit Grades

Rank Grade Name Team Week 12
1 A Justin Tucker BAL JAC
2 B+ Tyler Bass BUF DET
3 B Brett Maher DAL NYG
4 B Harrison Butker KC LAR
5 B- Jason Sanders MIA HOU
6 C+ Daniel Carlson LV SEA
7 C+ Evan McPherson CIN TEN
8 C+ Ryan Succop TB CLE
9 C+ Jason Myers SEA LV
10 C Nick Folk NE MIN
11 C Robbie Gould SF NO
12 C Cameron Dicker LAC ARI
13 C Graham Gano NYG DAL
14 C Jake Elliott PHI GB
15 C Greg Joseph MIN NE
16 C- Younghoe Koo ATL WAS
17 C- Matt Prater ARI LAC
18 C- Greg Zuerlein NYJ CHI
19 C- Michael Badgley DET BUF
20 D+ Brandon McManus DEN CAR
21 D+ Cade York CLE TB
22 D+ Chase McLaughlin IND PIT
23 D+ Wil Lutz NO SF
24 D Ka’imi Fairbairn HOU MIA
25 D Mason Crosby GB PHI
26 D Randy Bullock TEN CIN
27 D Matt Gay LAR KC
28 D- Cairo Santos CHI NYJ
29 D- Riley Patterson JAC BAL
30 D- Joey Slye WAS ATL
31 F Matthew Wright PIT IND
32 F Eddy Pineiro CAR DEN

 

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