How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: Running Backs (2025)

Before the 2025 NFL Draft kicked off, I released an article titled How to Value Rookies Pre-Draft (2025 Fantasy Football) to provide some insight into the approach for rookies in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.

The first-year talent that has entered the league over the past few seasons warrants excitement because guys are hitting the ground running for fantasy football. The list is impressive: Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Bucky Irving, Brock Bowers, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Jalen McMillan, Tyrone Tracy, C.J. Stroud, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Let’s look at fantasy football rookie running backs and how you should value them for 2025 redraft leagues.

• Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football ADP
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

How to Value Rookie Running Backs in Fantasy Football

The data suggests a strong correlation between draft capital and running back production in fantasy football. This correlation isn’t surprising because draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity versus talent/skill. The running back position in fantasy football is heavily dependent on volume.

NFL teams are wising up to drafting a running back at the back end of round one or in the middle of Day 2, intending to run them into the ground through the extent of their rookie contract.

However, draft capital was extremely strong for the 2025 class. This was too expected given how undesired veteran RBs were during the 2025 free-agency period.

It’s the polar opposite of what happened in 2024, when the veteran RB market was robust, given the poor incoming rookie RB class overall.

Only one RB earned an average annual value of at least $5M this offseason (Najee Harris), with the next three highest barely surpassing $2.745 million (Javonte Williams, Rico Dowdle, and JK Dobbins).

7 RBs had at least $5.5 million AAV in 2024.

But it should be noted that this draft capital might have been suppressed to some extent because of the sheer depth in this year’s class.

According to Pat Thorman, fewer backs were picked on Day One and Day Two (6) than over the previous 10 years (6.6) …or even five years (6.2). His main takeaway was that if the consensus on RB quality is correct from the 2025 NFL Draft class, there are several more gems than usual hidden in Day Three…

Rookie Running Backs Since 2013

First-round rookie running backs, on average, see 240 touches per season – a number that ranked 21st at the position in 2024, 22nd in 2023, and 20th in 2022.

However, the benchmark around 20 is slightly inflated due to the extra game, so I’d estimate the average is closer to the top 15 based on the previous 16-game season sample size (239 touches ranked 14th in 2021).

Najee Harris – 381 touches in 2021, tops in the NFL – is the best-case scenario for a first-round rookie volume-wise, but still showcases the impact a first-year runner can make despite zero professional experience.

In 2023, we had two RBs selected in the first round: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs– and they delivered despite lofty expectations. Both finished as top-12 fantasy RBs, averaging the exact touch output we should have expected.

We had three RBs finish with over 225 touches between Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier in 2022. The highest-drafted RB that season (Breece Hall) was on pace for 242 touches before his injury.

Last season was an utter disappointment for rookie RBs. But in 2025, the RB class is very strong.

With the 2022 season mirroring the 2024 season for rookie RBs, I would project this year’s rookie RB class to look more like the 2023 season.

We had two RBs projected to be first-round picks between Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and UNC’s Omarion Hampton. Additionally, there was pre-draft buzz for both Ohio State RBs to enter Round 1.

The pre-draft market hit the nail on the head.

Jeanty/Hampton both went Round 1, while the Buckeyes duo went at the top of Round 2. Not only were they all top-50 overall picks, but they were also top-40 overall picks.

Early Day 2 draft capital is almost just as good as Day 1 capital. Because running backs drafted early on Day 2 are the first-round running backs from eight years ago.

Round 1 Running Backs

Ashton Jeanty (LV)

Over three seasons at Boise State, Ashton Jeanty rushed for 4,760 yards on 748 carries (6.4 YPA) with 50 touchdowns. The 5-foot-9 and 211-pound RB had just 10 fumbles (1.3% rate) and displayed steady year-over-year growth, particularly excelling as a receiver in his second season.

According to Football Insights, Jeanty finished his collegiate career with the highest missed tackle forced per touch rate (39%). His career dominator rating ranks inside the top five. His yards per play (3.4) mark is also elite.

His dominance as a junior – 43% dominator rating while rushing for an eye-popping 2,595 yards (6.9 YPA) and 29 touchdowns – puts him in elite company.

The Las Vegas Raiders selected him 6th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. In the desert, Jeanty is going to see all the volume he can handle. He will get all the touches he needs to score fantasy points.

Also, during Chip Kelly’s four years as an NFL offensive coordinator, in three of those seasons, his backfields had a 16.6-17.7% target share, but he also flooded his Philly backfield with targets in 2015 (28.7%) per Derek Brown.

Jeanty’s average draft position (ADP) in 2025 is late first round based on his early best ball ADP. But based on the proposition of talent/opportunity, it’s not a bad bet to make on the uber-talented rookie running back from Boise State.

Historically speaking, the odds are in his favor to eventually return a Round 1 price tag.

The last two rookie RBs drafted highly in the first round two years ago – Bijan Robinson (8th) and Jahmyr Gibbs (12th) – finished as top 10 fantasy RBs in Year 1 (9th and 10th, respectively).

Why you should draft Ashton Jeanty everywhere in 2025 ????

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 10, 2025

• Saquon Barkley was a stud as a rookie (RB1 overall) – 16 starts.
• Leonard Fournette was 7th in PPG (9th in 13 games played).
• Christian McCaffrey was 10th even in an RBBC w/ Jonathan Stewart, in just 10 starts.
• Ezekiel Elliott was top 3 in PPG (2nd overall) – 15 starts.
• Trent Richardson – RB7 PPG and RB5 overall (wasn’t even good) – 15 starts.
• Adrian Peterson – RB1 overall (9 starts. DAYUM).
• Reggie Bush – RB9 overall (8 starts).

The only actual top 8 drafted RB to bust was Darren McFadden, but he got hurt and only started 5 games. Ironically, he also played for/was drafted by the Raiders (at the time playing in Oakland).

TDLR version: The high-end rookies entering with top-tier draft capital post top 5 numbers during some pocket of games in Year 1.

• Bush = RB5 Weeks 10-17
• Richardson = RB4 in final 9 games.
• Fournette = RB9 in last 4 (was RB3 pre-injury first 6 weeks of the season)

Tough to completely pass on in best ball with the contest structures heavily weighted from Weeks 15-17.

And for redraft purposes, there are plenty of RB values that you can pair with Jeanty to help mitigate any slow start as he gets accumulated to the pros.

Jeanty has a strong and legitimate case to lead the NFL in touches in 2025, based on the lack of depth behind him in the Raiders’ backfield.

Raheem Mostert is the projected backup and does have some chemistry with new Raiders OC, Chip Kelly, that’s worth mentioning from some overlap in 2015-2016 with the Eagles/49ers. Now, Mostert, 33, has a very long track record of injuries. So even if he has any semblance of involvement alongside Jeanty, it would likely be short-lived.

Like with any first-year player, a slow start is always in play. Especially making the jump from Boise State to the NFL.

It sounds weird to label Jeanty as a high-floor player (without any NFL experience), but the position he plays requires the least amount of adjustment at the professional level. I’ve been up front about my stance on fading Saquon Barkley in 2025, while also being open to the idea of Christian McCaffrey experiencing a bounce-back campaign.

But specifically in the best ball format, I’d easily push my chips on him being the highest scorer of those three RBs from Weeks 15-17. And that could be just based on availability, given the injury track records of the older RBs.

As for redraft, I get the hesitance with him with all the other more proven backs that seem so much safer. If you want to forego risk at RB in Round 1 and take Derrick Henry… no qualms from me. Seems like a pretty safe strategy. But with Jeanty at age 21, boasting a nearly flawless prospect profile…I’m taking a shot at who could be the consensus 1.01 in 2026.

I know there are also concerns about the Raiders OL etc. but if there’s any QB that can overcome OL issues, it’s Geno Smith. The last two seasons, the Seahawks have entered and finished the season with bottom-5 OL units (Grade per PFF both before and after the seasons). Seattle exceeded its Vegas projected win total both seasons anyway.

Worst-case scenario, he finishes a low-end fantasy RB1 that might be accompanied by a start slow. Not ideal by any means, but not exactly a colossal bust that will nuke your team. You can also draft Jeanty with the understanding that a slower start is within his range of outcomes and spend more draft capital on RBs throughout your draft accordingly.

I wish I could recommend just buying low on Jeanty if he does start slow, but fantasy gamers won’t jump off the bandwagon after a few down weeks if they select him in the first round.

But who knows…you might see some strong overreactions to Jeanty’s fantasy value if Mostert sees a larger role in the preseason and/or Week 1.

I also like Jeanty, specific to builds in this year’s ADP, because of the very strong WRs you can select in Round 2 (Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr. etc.)

Omarion Hampton (LAC)

The Chargers drafted North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton 22nd overall to be their future bell cow.

But they also signed Najee Harris to a one-year deal in free agency. And relative to the rest of this year’s veteran RB market, Harris made a killing from the Chargers, coming off his fourth straight 1,000-yard campaign as an extremely durable NFL RB.

I could very much see Hampton and Harris splitting work to some extent in 2025, but we know which running back will be spearheading this team at the end of the season and in 2026.

Even if it might be annoying at times during the start of the 2025 season, drafting Hampton should pay off in the long run. That makes Harris nothing more than an early-season zero-RB target that can help provide some early-season production as Hampton gets brought up to speed.

As for Hampton’s fantasy value in drafts, he is appropriately priced as the RB17.

And that’s solely based on the average yearly finish of RB drafted in Round 1 (RB17).

Now Hampton’s value is going to potentially rise after the news broke of Harris suffering a superficial eye injury in the aftermath of a fireworks incident (officially reported nearly a week after the incident occurred). His agent reported he would be ready for the NFL season…but not necessarily training camp (with the Chargers starting earlier than most because of the HOF game). It was reported that he will start the season on the NFI list in the aftermath of the incident.

Chargers officially placed RB Najee Harris on Active/Non-Football Injury.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 17, 2025

This opens the door for Hampton to see additional 1^st-team reps and carve out a massive gap between him and Harris.

I’ll be buying Hampton. We know this Greg Roman offense wants to run the ball and Hampton could be a huge factor with his four-down back skill set.

Running backs drafted on Day 2 or earlier that have averaged at least 30 receiving yards/gm in their final college seasons: Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne Jr. Rachaad White, Zach Charbonnet, Jahmyr Gibbs and Omarion Hampton.

Of the four 1st-rounders in that group…they all finished no worse than RB17 in their first full seasons played (ETN missed his rookie year). Three were top-10 and two were top-5.

Round 2 Running Backs

TreVeon Henderson (NE) & Quinshon Judkins (CLE)

Now, onto the Round 2 RBs, who will undoubtedly be compared throughout their NFL careers based on their college ties at Ohio State and close draft selection.

It’s interesting to see how their ADPs have not shifted since pre-draft best ball (note this is all before Quinshon Judkins‘ arrest, which we will delve into).

Right smackdab in the back end RB2 range (RB21-RB25).

Now, the Round 2 RBs see a drastic fall-off in RB1 potential compared to their Round 1 counterparts. But part of that is based on volume (75 fewer touches on average).

In the bearish case of TreVeon Henderson, I think sheer volume doesn’t work in his favor. Henderson will likely be deployed in a committee within New England, given his per-touch efficiency marks. It’s how he is most effective.

We have seen plenty of Josh McDaniels offenses run by committee, and that’s how I’ll likely project the Patriots’ offense in 2025. The examples of McDaniels using one running back almost always came in the final season of contracts (Josh Jacobs in 2022).

In the best ball format, Henderson’s spiked plays will hit your lineup. But in a managed redraft league, you might be pulling your hair out trying to deduce his timeshare with Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson knows this Josh McDaniels offense from their time overlap in 2021.

Eventually, I’d imagine that the Patriots can only keep Henderson limited for so long. After all, his skill set is that of an RB that will command his way onto the field. He can catch passes and doesn’t face a learning curve of pass protection (like most rookie RBs do). Hendo has juice that the Patriots offense has so severely lacked.

But volume still matters in fantasy football, and Henderson averaged fewer than 11 touches per game last season at Ohio State alongside Judkins. To draw an NFL comparison that was the same workload Jaylen Warren had last season.

When Henderson took on larger roles in college, he got banged up.

Therefore, I think that Henderson’s season-long projection is capped because of the skill set. The weekly spikes will be fantastic, don’t get me wrong.

But the weeks when he doesn’t rip off the long TD runs or rack up a ton of receptions will leave fantasy football managers with a lot to be desired.

Best ball in full PPR? Yes. Redraft? Not as convinced when you have to push the start button every week running behind a bad (even improved) offensive line. He might be a better buy-low trade target mid-season as we see indications of his role growing.

I know that I compared Henderson to Tony Pollard, and others have compared him to Jahmyr Gibbs.

Gibbs’ rookie year started out extremely slow.

First six weeks, Gibbs was the outside the top-30 RBs in PPG while David Montgomery was a top-10 fantasy back. Be patient.

As for Judkins, it’s a very different story (in more ways than one). He profiles as a true workhorse, at least more so on early downs.

That’s the bullish case for Judkins. He sees workhorse volume and gets there even in an offense that we think is going to be bad.

But there’s a higher weekly floor with Judkins than Henderson because of the projected touches. Sure, Henderson’s spike weeks might be superior to Judkins, but Judkins will probably be the safer start weekly given the projected volume.

Judkins is projected for nearly 300 touches in Mike Clay’s 2025 projections (240 carries).

He has a bell cow profile, and that’s traditionally a better option to have in redraft formats.

Judkins finished his three-year career at OSU/Ole Miss with 4,227 yards from scrimmage and 50 touchdowns. Durable – didn’t miss a game past three seasons and had one fumble the last two seasons (Dane Brugler, The Athletic).

Browns GM Andrew Berry called Judkins their bell cow to carry the load. They want to use him in a bunch of different ways (Stefanski).

You can reach for a weekly ceiling with your WR3/FLEX plays with Judkins slated as a solid RB2.

And I think the environmental risks are baked in with the downside of the Browns’ offense. Joe Flacco is an older QB who probably doesn’t want to get hit. And we saw that last season in the Colts offense. JT averaged 3.8 targets per game last season when Flacco was the starter.

Is Judkins some elite receiver? No. But he can catch dump-off passes from a 40-year-old QB.

And although he might not put him glowing efficiency metrics within the confines of a lackluster Browns offense, Jerome Ford was a fantasy RB3 for the first five weeks of the season last year.

Before diving back into looking at the rookies, I had Henderson clearly ahead of Judkins. But after thinking more about it, I had returned full circle to chasing the volume with Judkins with the price palatable as the fantasy RB25. If you average Round 1 RBs with Round 2 RBs, it’s a 28.5 average finish. I think that’s more of the range we should be valuing guys like Hendo/Judkins. Therefore, Henderson is a bit pricy as a fantasy RB2 when I’m not exactly sure you’ll see that price pay to start the season.

As I’ve reflected more on Judkins’ potential this year, I though he might be looking at a Najee Harris type of rookie year. Probably not to the extreme of Harris’s rookie year, but a touch monster nevertheless.

Tying in more Harris comps to Judkins…who was the Steelers QB two of the last three seasons?

Kenny Pickett. Harris’s finishes? RB14 and RB20. The combination of Pickett/Flacco can support a top-24 rookie RB, if not more if he can be really good in his first season.

I’ve come full circle since being really high on the Browns draft pick when it was first made.

Obviously, you can get cold feet committing to any Cleveland player, but Kevin Stefanski is a good NFL head coach who has won a lot of games.

They play fast and could be better than most expect for fantasy football purposes. They were eviscerated by offensive injuries in 2024.

Judkins was a highly drafted rookie RB with a clear path to opportunities.

Now I wrote almost of this section before the domestic violence arrest for Judkins. But I wanted to keep that section because I think it still holds weight as the “upside” case for Judkins.

Still, we have a lot to still unpack. And we will hopefully get more information.

But the way I see it, I think a six-game suspension is a probably outcome, and that’s how I am viewing Judkins’ value (and the rest of the Browns backfield). I feel like taking a stand (either right or wrong) is more actionable then a hedge ranking which will be more reflected in his ADP.

The 6-game penalty stems from the situation with Browns DT Mike Hall last season. He was placed on the commissioner’s exempt list to start the 2024 season due to an August 2024 arrest on domestic violence charges.

I’d guess exempt list while the NFL does an investigation with a 6-game suspension to start the year. Again, this is more guessing than anything but my best attempt at baking in the suspension risk with Judkins.

Obviously this potential suspension puts 4th-round rookie RB Dylan Sampson, in a prime position, although veteran Jerome Ford still lurks. Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot believes Ford could be a workhorse if/when Judkins misses time with Sampson offering value as a change-of-pace back.

RJ Harvey (DEN)

We’ve got one more RB selected in Round 2….RJ Harvey. If you want the bullish case on Harvey, read DBro’s write up on him Nobody is higher on Harvey. I’m more inline with him compared to consensus and think there’s value with him as a fantasy RB2. Although his situation feels similar to Henderson’s there two major differences. The Broncos offensive line is vastly superior to the Patriots. And J.K. Dobbins is much more likely to break down before Rhamondre Stevenson. Dobbins just isn’t built to last.

So I think Harvey is the move over Henderson for 2025.

Even if these second-round RBs ALL can’t meet the expectations of a top-12 RB, I think the floor RB3 based on draft capital justifies the upside swing.

Round 3 Rookie Running Backs

Kaleb Johnson (PIT)

There was only one RB drafted in Round 3 of the this year’s draft. Kaleb Johnson. But it wouldn’t take a lot to convince me that his draft capital is being undervalued as the Steelers might have taken him in Round 2 if they had a draft pick (traded to Seattle for DK Metcalf). Recall that Johnson was highly regarded in the top-tier of this year’s class before the NFL Scouting Combine where he ran a sluggish 40 to go with an egregious 10-yard split.

His ADP was RB28 pre-draft and has stayed in that RB2/3 cusp post-draft.

Now last year’s third-round rookie RBs bombed hard.

Most analysts – myself included – and draft pundits tend to cluster “Day 2 running backs” together because the draft is set up in that fashion, but the facts advocate that we should view them separately. The major overall drop-off in running back production from Round 2 to Round 3 cannot be ignored.

The volume and fantasy finish margin for running backs from Round 2 to Round 3 is more significant than for running backs from Round 3 to Round 4.

Of the 37 running backs who’ve been drafted in the third round over the last 12 years, just five of them have finished as a top 24 running back in their rookie season (13%), while 26 of them finished outside of the top 36 running backs (70%).

But as I wrote last season, we need to view third-round RBs more in terms of landing spot and less with concrete draft capital. Last year’s third-round rookie RBs landed behind three bell cows. As a result, they were overvalued.

The Steelers just got rid of their bell cow RB they have had for the last four seasons…

The case of Round 2 versus Round 3 RBs is about ceiling/floor outcomes. The floors are shaky (like we saw last season). But it’s evident in the data that the ceiling cases are identical. So when you draft Henderson/Harvey/Judkins for upside, you can make the same upside.

And when we are making upside cases, Johnson’s fit in Arthur Smith’s offense is just too perfect. Johnson wasn’t an RB that would work in every system, and I think that is why he fell in the draft.

All prices considered, Johnson is my No. 1 running back rookie to target. We saw two years ago a Round 3 rookie RB break the mold in the form of De’Von Achane. After Miami selected him, there was overwhelming praise for his scheme fit in McDaniel’s offense. I think we could see a repeat with that with Kaleb Johnson in Arthur Smith’s offense.

Round 4 Rookie Running Backs

Dylan Sampson (CLE)

The Tennessee RB broke out in 2024 with a 34% dominator rating and is yet to turn 21 years old. Sampson is undersized at 5-foot-8 and 199 pounds soaking wet, but you can see him being an uber-efficient RB on a per-touch basis at the next level.

To me, he looked like a slightly bigger version of Dion Lewis, who had his flashes of greatness in fantasy football. Although if you ask Sampson, according to The Athletic, Sampson models his game (and No.6 jersey number) after Alvin Kamara.

Put this guy in a backfield with a power runner, and you’ve got the perfect thunder/lightning combination. And chances are, he will always “look” better on his handful of touches. It’s by no accident that the Browns paired Sampson with Judkins.

As I noted in my “How to Value 2025 Rookies Pre-Draft,” finding this year’s De’Von Achane might be the key to finding the highest producers beyond the top dogs. I think Sampson has some similarities in his profile. The team also seems very high on his receiving abilities, which was also heavily spoken of during the pre-draft process.

Especially if he ends up in an outside zone scheme that will put him in space. According to Sports Info Solutions, he ranks inside the top-3 in positive run percentage in both outside and zone scheme runs.

There’s been plenty of rhetoric around the Browns rebuilding their ground game, going back to the outside zone that Stefanki ran successfully in Minnesota (Cleveland.com). Duce Staley is the Browns RB coach, and he famously “unlocked” Miles Sanders‘ receiving ability as a rookie. Sanders reached pass-catching heights in Year 1 under Staley. Sanders has not been able to repeat that success during the rest of his NFL career.

I’ve moved Sampson inside my top-45 RBs. Before the Judkins’ news, the RB60-70 range was an appropriate ADP for Sampson. Interestingly enough, Sampson’s pre-draft best ball ADP was the RB48.

Cam Skattebo (NYG) & Bhayshul Tuten (JAC)

The 3rd-4th round cluster is where things get really interesting, especially compared to previous seasons.

During the 2025 pre-draft best ball, we had three rookie RBs ranked between RB38 and RB48. Cam Skattebo (RB38), Dylan Sampson (RB48), and Bhayshul Tuten (RB47). This was AHEAD of 2023’s middle-round guys, who went between De’Von Achane (RB49) and Tyjae Spears (RB50).

The 3rd-4th round cluster from the 2024 class was drafted from RB34-RB47 before the 2024 NFL Draft took place.

Skattebo (RB36) hasn’t really moved since being drafted by the Giants, and neither has Bhayshul Tuten (RB44).

So, although this year’s class resembles 2023 more than 2024, we aren’t seeing as much of a discount on the second tier compared to the first tier. However, we are seeing a comparable price between the second tier of RBs from the last two classes. Because we know this second tier is better than last year, I like the odds of some of these RBs returning on their investment with pseudo Round 3 draft capital (even if it’s not as great a discount as the 2023 second tier).

I argued that last year’s rookie RB tier 2 was overvalued, and I was proven right. I feel different this season.

Tuten and Skattebo were “basically” real-life Round 3 picks, and it’s funny to think how they might be viewed had they gone just 1-2 picks earlier. They were the second and third picks, respectively, on Day 3.

Had Skattebo been drafted in Round 3 he would have entered this conversation: Running backs drafted on Day 2 or earlier* that have averaged at least 30 receiving yards/gm in their final college seasons: Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne Jr. Rachaad White, Zach Charbonnet, Jahmyr Gibbs and Omarion Hampton.

Skattebo just needs volume for fantasy purposes with his three-down skill set. With only Tyrone Tracy in his way, I think this is an easy bet to make. The fact that Brian Daboll turned over his backfield to a 5th-rounder with little experience at RB in 2024 suggests he is not using draft capital to dictate backfield hierarchy.

Skattebo’s ADP is almost identical to that of Brooks/Corum/Benson from 2024, when his path to relevance seems so much clearer.

Tuten has been on an atomic rise since the NFL Combine, but we have been ahead of the curve on him. He remains one of my favorite RB sleepers in this draft class. And lucky for us, a fumble in OTAs has kept his price in check.

His cost is similar to De’Von Achane from 2023 and Bucky Irving from 2024, so I think the price is more than worth it. He has nearly 20 pounds on the Dolphins RB with similar speed and a strong production profile to back it up. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ backfield is a mess, but this is where we see a league winner emerge. Take the plunge. Or draft two guys from the backfield.

Historically speaking, my research has found there’s not much of a difference between Round 3/Round 4 running backs in first-year production. In 2023, this wasn’t the case, with virtually no hits after Round 3 aside from Chase Brown (Round 5), although Keaton Mitchell/Jaleel McLaughlin made noise as UDFAs.

Last season, the Round 3 RBs were substantially worse than Round 4. Now they did have a numbers advantage (3 versus 7), but the rookies drafted behind bell cows BOMBED.

Bucky Irving was the Round 4 and rookie RB league-winner, while Braelon Allen, Ray Davis, and Isaac Guerendo flashed at times. Still, more than half were dead picks, with Irving the only one moving the needle. Don’t scoff at the idea that a 4th-rounder can contribute as a so-called “Day 3 pick.” Especially this season, when teams were purposely waiting till draft Day 2 RB talent on Day 3.

The conclusion I had last season was that, from a post-draft production standpoint, Round 4 running backs tend to look much more like Round 3 running backs than their Round 5-plus counterparts.

We should view the rookie RBs more in these tiers: Round 1, Round 2, Rounds 3-4, and Rounds 5-7.

Now, Tyrone Tracy hit last season (which we were on) as a high upside/no floor play. He was RB58 in ADP. Solely because he was a real-life 5th-round pick. But going back to the simple principle.

He was a rookie who landed on a depth chart with a clear path to touches.

RBs like Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Isaac Guerendo, Audric Estime, and Will Shipley didn’t look like anything more than glorified handcuffs after being drafted last season. And that is exactly what they were, aside from Irving. We need to think longer about if/when a rookie RB can carve out a role alongside the starter without an injury.

But back to the Round 4 backs. These guys are closer to Round 3 than the market will admit. And this year in particular, even 5th-rounders could be outproducing their ADPs, similar to Round 4 ones (although I’d be more hesitant on the handcuff ones as slam-dunk picks).

Pretty clear to see how Jaydon Blue for Dallas looks completely different than either Jordan James (49ers) or DJ Giddens (IND). James/Giddens fall into those glorified handcuff situations. Although Giddens might have more to offer as a receiver but how often the Colts offense will feature RBs in the passing game seems like a bad bet to make given their offensive setup. Embarassment of riches at WR/TE, two mobile QBs, etc.

Giddens was the RB61 pre-draft before being selected by the Colts, now the RB64 in early best ball ADP.

Back to the Dallas Cowboys. Blue’s situation has not gone unnoticed by the market, as he has risen from RB85 pre-draft to RB44. Typically, this is a very bad bet to make.

Day 3 RBs are guaranteed nothing, and it would be wise to invest in them with the least amount of fantasy capital possible. Be price sensitive when weighing rookie RB options to more concrete handcuffs if possible.

In the past six seasons, 64 running backs have been selected in rounds 5-7. Tyler Allgeier, Isiah Pacheco, Chase Brown, and the aforementioned Tracy have been the best of the bunch. An extremely low hit rate.

Over the same period, the big-hitting rookie running backs who significantly contributed to fantasy rosters were Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson, who both went undrafted. We’ve seen this more recently as well, with RBs like Jaylen Warren, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Keaton Mitchell. But it usually doesn’t last.

Day 3 Rookie RB Analysis

I thought Damien Martinez (RB66), Trevor Etienne (RB69), and Brashard Smith (RB71) were all overpriced based on being projected late Day 3 rookies before the draft. Martinez and Smith both ended up as late 7th-round picks, but Etienne surprised with the most draft capital (Round 4) as the ninth running back selected.

As I have already outlined, there is a semblance to viewing the running backs selected in the first round of Day 3 in a separate tier from rounds five or later. There’s value to be had. Keep in mind that Rounds 4-7 are where things mostly become a crapshoot, but there is some semblance to viewing the running backs selected in the first round of Day 3 in a separate tier from rounds five or later.

The average finish for a Round 4 RB in Year 1 is RB69. We have six Round 4 RBs from this year’s draft. Woody Marks, Trevor Etienne, and Jarquez Hunter are the three who are being drafted outside the top-60 RBs overall. Based solely on draft capital, they seem to be undervalued.

Specifically with Marks/Hunter, their teams traded up to get them, making their Round 4 capital come with a premium. Etienne is definitely the most undervalued one in the group. He just turned 21 years old and can contribute valuably on passing downs.

According to the Dane Brugler, Etienne was voted top running back on the American Team during the week of practice at the 2025 Senior Bowl. Keep in mind that the American Team also had Harvey, Hunter, Neal, Smith, and Marcus Yarns on it. In two games against the Texans Longhorns this past college season, Etienne rushed for 181 yards and five rushing TDs with 8 catches for 50-plus yards.

In this RB50-RB70 range, you are much better off taking more “concrete” handcuffs/second-year RBs such as… Tyler Allgeier, Jaylen Wright, Braelon Allen, Will Shipley, MarShawn Lloyd, etc.

Round 4 running backs look much more like Round 3 running backs from a post-draft production standpoint than their round-five or later counterparts.

This was true last season when the 2024 Round 4 RBs, led by Irving, outpaced the Round 5-plus RBs not-named Tyrone Tracy.

There’s a slightly higher hit rate in the fourth round than in rounds 5-7.

Players like Bucky Irving, Ray Davis, Isaac Guerendo, Braelon Allen, Tony Pollard, Dameon Pierce, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Chuba Hubbard most recently enjoyed fantasy-relevant weeks as fourth-round rookies. And for the most part, their values have stayed relatively steady in the dynasty context, if not on an upward trajectory, specifically after Year 1.

At least from a hit rate and floor standpoint. Because the ceiling-only argument leans more toward the fifth-round or later guys. Round 5 guys can hit a high ceiling, but they come with a shaky floor. At a premium price tag, they probably aren’t worth the price of admission.

From 2013 to 2021, just two Day 3 running backs finished as top 24 running backs (Jordan Howard in 2016, Zac Stacy in 2013). Tracy (RB26), Pierce (RB27), and Allgeier (RB28) came extremely close to top-24 status as rookies. A few guys also came seriously close in 2021 – Elijah Mitchell (RB25), Michael Carter (RB29), and Chuba Hubbard (RB33) – but ultimately fell short of cresting fantasy RB2 status.

Bucky Irving‘s performance last season was an outlier for a Round 4 pick as the RB54.

We should not value any rookie running back drafted on Day 3 with a top-24 price tag, regardless of their landing spot. However, the market has adjusted accordingly, with no Day 3 backs going higher than RB36 (Cam Skattebo).

Part of this stems from these later-round backs having to earn touches and work their way up the depth chart. After all, the draft capital means that teams don’t have to play them.

Because they can only gain opportunities by showing out their talent in practices or preseason, I would highly recommend a lean towards the talent/athleticism of Day 3 running backs.

If they land on a team that boasts a weak running back depth chart, that should be added to the equation (see Tracy last season). But if all else is equal, go with the best player you think can deliver when called upon.

In this year’s class, I’d be open to a lot of cheap(er) rookie RBs. I truly believe the draft capital they received on Day 3 isn’t fully capturing their talent. This class was so stacked from top to bottom, and that inherently hurt the draft capital of several backs.

The NFL told us how it felt about this year’s rookie RB class compared to the veterans in free agency. Teams are going to be drafting rookie RBs, with some selecting more than one, such as the Jaguars, Browns, and Cowboys.

As I noted last season, going outside the top 50 RBs in ADP (pre-draft) as rookies doesn’t typically yield strong results. In 2023, there were no hits.

Pre-draft, I voiced concern for rookie running backs like Devin Neal (RB51), Ollie Gordon (RB57), RJ Harvey (RB58), and Damien Martinez (RB66) because I feared they were facing uphill battles to meet their respective ADPs with expected draft positions (EDPs) outside the top 3 rounds given the average finished based on draft capital is closer to the 60s.

Three of them were selected in Round 6-plus. Harvey was the big winner from this group, going from fringe Day 3 pick to the second round (Sean Payton always gets his guy).

Now, looking ahead to the new ADPs, the highest ranked rookies outside the top-50 include Dylan Sampson (RB54), Jarquez Hunter (RB63), DJ Giddens (RB64), Brashard Smith (RB65), Kyle Monangai (RB67), and Tahj Brooks (RB71). Obviously, this class is much stronger than last season, so I’d be more optimistic about more of these guys adding more value. However, my findings suggest that the glorified handcuff RBs (no standalone value without an injury) might be hard to buy into.

Specifically, I think a top-50 RB price for a rookie based mostly on injury/contingent upside is too much to pay. Look for RBs that could work their way up depth charts even without an injury.

Final Thoughts

Below you will find some rookie ADP comparisons from pre- and post-draft, which were obviously impacted by draft capital and team landing spot.

All in all, I think this RB class presents a lot of great values from top to bottom. Jeanty has sticker shock, but the floor justifies his ADP. I think that Jake Ceily from the Athletic has made a great comparison with Jeanty to Bijan Robinson‘s rookie year. Didn’t quite match RB3 expectations, but wasn’t a bust either. But you know who were busts? The two RBs picked directly before and after him in 2023. Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb. Both were busts. In fact, Robinson was better than 6 of the 7 RBs drafted closest to him.

That being said, I do think the gap between Hampton and Jeanty is too large. Hampton’s ADP should climb as Harris misses time.

The second-round RBs are probably the ones most difficult to pay off their ADPs (aside from Judkins, whose ADP is in flux). We’ve seen both coaching staffs implement committees, and that might cause frustration with fantasy RB2 expectations out of the gate.

Hence why Kaleb Johnson is my must-have rookie RB. Same upside as the Round 2 guys. Not the same price. Round 6.

Skattebo and Tuten are good prices for essentially “Round 3 RBs,” although it doesn’t make too much of a difference whether they were Round 3 or 4 backs when it comes to their production. Just impacts the suppressed price.

My remaining favorite Day 3 rookie RBs are listed out below, many of which were featured in my Rookie Draft Sleepers: Running Back piece back in the spring.

Rookie RB Targets:

• Ashton Jeanty (LV)
• Omarion Hampton (LAC)
• Kaleb Johnson (PIT)
• Cam Skattebo (NYG)
• Bhayshul Tuten (JAC)
• Trevor Etienne (CAR)
• Jarquez Hunter (LAR)
• Dylan Sampson (CLE)
• Brashard Smith (KC)
• Kyle Monangai (CHI)
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS)

But the TLDR version:

1. Trevor Etienne (CAR) – Was not high enough on him pre- or post-draft as a 4th-round pick. If Rico Dowdle is nothing more than a JAG, Etienne is carving out a role on passing downs alongside Chuba Hubbard.
2. Jarquez Hunter (LAR) – Blake Corum is Kyren Williams 2.0. Hunter is the explosive big-play complement to both of them.
3. Dylan Sampson (CLE) – See the Judkins section above.
4. Brashard Smith (KC) – Former WR, wheels up in the Jerick McKinnon role.
5. Kyle Monangai (CHI) – Zero-nonsense rusher. If D’Andre Swift and/or Roschon Johnson don’t pan out, Monangai can deliver.
6. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) – Austin Ekeler is past his prime, and Brian Robinson Jr. is fine. Bill (yes, that is what Croskey-Merritt prefers to be called) is vastly underrated and gives MORE if the Commanders need more from their backfield.

Pre-Draft vs. Current ADP:

Risers

• RJ Harvey (RB58) / (RB22)
• Cam Skattebo (RB38) / (RB35)
• Bhayshul Tuten (RB47) / (RB44)
• Brashard Smith (RB71) / (RB65)
• Jarquez Hunter (RB82) / (RB63)
• Jordan James (RB78) / (RB73)
• Woody Marks (RB96) / (RB82)
• Jaydon Blue (RB85) / (RB43)
• Tahj Brooks (RB92) / (RB71)
• Kyle Monangai (RB104) / (RB67)

Fallers

• Dylan Sampson (RB48) / (RB54)
• DJ Giddens (RB61) / (RB64)
• Devin Neal (RB51) / (RB68)
• Ollie Gordon (RB57) / (RB72)
• Damien Martinez (RB66) / (RB93)
• Trevor Etienne (RB69) / (RB97)
• Raheim Sanders (RB89) / (RB104)
• LeQuint Allen (RB93) / (RB105)
• Marcus Yarns (RB97) / (N/A)

Rookie RB Fades:

• TreyVeon Henderson (NE)
• Jordan James (SF)
• Jaydon Blue (DAL)
• DJ Giddens (IND)
• Ollie Gordon (MIA)
• Devin Neal (NO)
• Tahj Brooks (CIN)
• Damien Martinez (SEA)

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