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Fantasy Football Busts Experts Avoid: Running Backs

Every year, fantasy football drafts are filled with landmines-players who look like reliable picks on the surface but ultimately fail to live up to their cost. To help you avoid these traps in 2025, we’ve gathered insights from our Featured Pros, who have identified the biggest consensus busts for the upcoming season. Whether it’s inflated ADPs, unsustainable production from last year, or unfavorable team situations, these experts have highlighted the players most likely to disappoint relative to draft capital. Before you’re on the clock, make sure you know which names to cross off your cheat sheet.

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2025 Consensus Fantasy Football Busts: Running Backs

Running Back Fantasy Football Busts

Christian McCaffrey (SF)

Christian McCaffrey has bilateral Achilles tendonitis. The chronic kind. Yes, he looks great right now running around the practice field, but he’s not yet being driven into the ground by 300-pound linemen (which taxes the tendons in unmeasurable ways). Cutting and running in practice is just not a good judge for how CMC’s body will handle the aggressiveness of an actual NFL season. While his overseas treatments clearly have his Achilles situation currently at bay, that’s all it is… at bay. The wear and tear, the mileage, it’s all adding up, and he is going to be at risk for all kinds of lower-body injuries in 2025 (especially knee injuries). If he were going at the 2/3 turn, it would be one thing to take a stab at getting some vintage CMC. However, his current 1.5-1.8 ADP is just ludicrous. Bucky Irving and Ashton Jeanty (even Drake London and Brian Thomas Jr. should be locked into place above CMC in 2025. All are much safer and have the same upside anyway… especially young monsters like Bucky and Jeanty. “When CMC is healthy, he’s the best runner in football” is just a ‘what if’ line people overuse.”
Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)

Kenneth Walker III (SEA)

Kenneth Walker III played 10+ games last season. Now, without looking, guess how many times he rushed for over one hundred yards? Once! Walker has also been battling a nagging foot injury throughout the offseason. In addition, there have been a lot of personnel changes with the Seahawks’ offense this offseason, and not all of them are for the better, imo. That’s not good news for young “Sky” Walker, who needs a lot of TDs to support his lofty ADP at RB 17. And before you go, know this: Kenneth, I am your father. No, not really. I can’t back that up, haha!”
Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

De’Von Achane (MIA)

De’Von Achane is obviously one of the most explosive and electric RBs in the NFL, but due to his smaller frame, can he repeat his very high amount of volume from last year? Besides, Achane is injured right now, and when he does get back, it looks like all the goal-line touches will go to Ollie Gordon this season for Miami. And if Mike McDaniel wants to keep his job going forward, he will absolutely have to reinfuse the downfield passing attack back into this Miami offense, which will benefit Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and hurt De’Von Achane. If the Dolphins do get off to a slow start this season and McDaniel is actually fired midseason, who knows what Achane’s usage will look like at that point.”
Aidan Weingartner (Fantasy In Frames)

“I get that calling players a bust due to injury is a cop-out, but I’ve been nervous about De’Von Achane for months now. Just because he got hurt in the preseason doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s a trap for fantasy this year. The Dolphins are going to be a wild card each and every week, and at RB, I want consistency. Will Tua be able to stay on the field himself? Will Tyreek return to his S Tier form? Will they have anyone else to throw to to help open the box for Achane? Honestly, no one knows, so I’m out on Achane, even if he’s healthy this year.”
Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)

RJ Harvey (DEN)

RJ Harvey is not even the best running back on the Broncos, and after looking at the tape, not second, third, or fourth. Rookie hype is driving his name up draft boards, but that will not translate to playing time when the real games begin. Harvey’s increased preseason workload means nothing once the veterans take over. Relying on RJ in your fantasy lineup is a guaranteed way to fall behind early. By the end of the season, RJ Harvey will be on the Waiver Wire in every league.”
Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

“The biggest bust this year is going to be RJ Harvey. Not only will JK Dobbins outperform him, but Estime and McLaughlin will be the ones carrying the torch if Dobbins goes down.”
Steve Anagnos (Double G Sports)

RJ Harvey’s quickly become a redraft darling, but I think the hype’s outpacing the reality. He’s compact and tough, but the burst isn’t consistent, and his vision has always been shaky; he is more change-of-pace than lead back. Second-round capital gives him a shot, but Sean Payton’s offenses rarely lean on one guy, and I see a committee coming. At his current price, Harvey feels more like a trap than a breakout.”
Tyler Orginski (FTN)

Joe Mixon (HOU)

“Here’s why Joe Mixon of the Houston Texans could emerge as my top fantasy football bust in 2025. A lingering foot/ankle injury has resulted in missing substantial time this preseason. He’s been placed on the non-football injury (NFI) list, putting his availability for Week 1 in doubt. Mixon is expected to miss extended time, making his status uncertain heading into the season. As a result, Nick Chubb may get early-down opportunities and possibly start Week 1. If Nick Chubb delivers early and can stay healthy, Mixon may never get his starting job back this season. Entering his age-29 season with 1,800+ career rushing attempts, Mixon is entering the prime age when decline often begins. Mixon’s volume-heavy workloads, which once were his strength, may now be a liability. Houston’s O-line remains suspect-poor run-blocking grades, and the departure of Laremy Tunsil has exacerbated Mixon’s struggles in the running game. New Offensive Coordinator, Nick Caley, has no prior play-calling experience, introducing scheme uncertainty, especially regarding run-pass balance and offensive cohesion. Mixon’s current average draft position (ADP) of 34 is way too high. Let him be someone else’s problem. If you draft Mixon, Nick Chubb becomes a must-handcuff option.”
Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

Ashton Jeanty (LV)

Ashton Jeanty. Listen, I’m a huge fan of Jeanty and his skillset. That said, he is currently being drafted at RB5 and ADP10. That’s an overpay for any rookie, especially one in this offense. The Raiders were the worst rushing team in the league last year, averaging under 80 YPG, nearly 12 yards less than any other team. Jeanty is a significant upgrade over the backs in this backfield last season, there is no doubt about that. That said, FantasyPros has the Las Vegas line ranked 22nd for the 2025 season. Jeanty will make some big plays. He will make the offensive line look better than it truly is. I just have a hard time believing that he will be a top-10 fantasy player in 2025. I know I’m in the minority on this take, but I’ll die on the hill that Jeanty is being drafted too high for his situation in Las Vegas.”
Justin Elick (Daily Fantasy Circuit)

Omarion Hampton (LAC)

“I expect Omarion Hampton to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust. He has strong draft capital and lands in a run-heavy scheme under Greg Roman, but Roman favors committees over workhorses. No Ravens running back topped 45% of snaps in 2021 or 2022, and Edwards saw a 35.3% share in L.A. With Najee Harris likely to take a big portion of touches, Hampton’s path to a true lead is shaky. At RB14, you’re paying for a bellcow back that probably won’t happen.”
Kyle Zeigler (Fantasy In Frames)

Aaron Jones (MIN)

Aaron Jones. Jones did well as the Vikings starter last year, his first with the team. He was 15th overall in fantasy running back scoring and had 1,546 total yards. He did have just two 100-yard rushing games, though. And he made few plays after contact, breaking just 11 tackles. Jones is 30 years old and now has Jordan Mason to split the work with at running back. Things are trending the wrong way for him at this stage of his career. I want a player on the upswing – not the downswing.”
Jeff Paur (RTSports)

Breece Hall (NYJ)

Breece Hall. Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has been telling us all offseason that the Jets are going to use three running backs. We’re drafting a committee back on a team that probably isn’t going to score many touchdowns as a high-end RB2? Woof.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Breece Hall is still the “starter” in New York, but he’s going to be in more of a timeshare than people think. Braelon Allen is being drafted about 12 rounds after Hall and could end up being in a near 50/50 split. I can see Hall’s fantasy production mainly coming from receiving work, but how often are the Jets expected to pass? With Justin Fields and Allen also involved in the run game, Hall’s fantasy production won’t warrant his current ADP.”
Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)

Expert Fantasy Football Bust Picks

Expert QB RB WR TE
Aaron St. Denis Jayden Daniels Ashton Jeanty Terry McLaurin Sam LaPorta
Adam Dove Brock Purdy Saquon Barkley Ladd McConkey David Njoku
Aidan Weingartner Patrick Mahomes De’Von Achane DJ Moore Travis Kelce
Alex Orellana Jared Goff Chase Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown Mark Andrews
Andrew Erickson Jared Goff Kyren Williams Tyreek Hill Travis Kelce
Andrew Hall Justin Fields De’Von Achane Tyreek Hill Dalton Kincaid
Brad Beatson Caleb Williams D’Andre Swift DJ Moore
Charlie Sisian Joe Burrow Breece Hall Terry McLaurin Mark Andrews
Dave Heilman Patrick Mahomes Breece Hall Tyreek Hill Sam LaPorta
Dave Kluge Bo Nix Bucky Irving Amon-Ra St. Brown Dalton Kincaid
Dennis Sosic Kyler Murray Chuba Hubbard Jerry Jeudy Jonnu Smith
Derek Brown Patrick Mahomes Kyren Williams Tyreek Hill
Ed Birdsall Patrick Mahomes Jonathan Taylor Tyreek Hill Brock Bowers
Jake Maraia (@ffdataroma) Bo Nix Jonathan Taylor Garrett Wilson Evan Engram
James Emrick-Wilson Baker Mayfield Chase Brown Terry McLaurin Jonnu Smith
Jeff Bell Baker Mayfield De’Von Achane Tyreek Hill T.J. Hockenson
Jeff Boggis Baker Mayfield Joe Mixon Travis Hunter Travis Kelce
Jeff Haverlack Dak Prescott De’Von Achane Tyreek Hill
Jeff Paur Brock Purdy Aaron Jones Mike Evans David Njoku
Joe Beldner Patrick Mahomes Joe Mixon Chris Olave Mark Andrews
Joe Pepe Baker Mayfield Jahmyr Gibbs Jaxon Smith-Njigba Tucker Kraft
Joey Meinerding Patrick Mahomes James Cook Terry McLaurin Mark Andrews
Justin Elick Brock Purdy Ashton Jeanty Tyreek Hill David Njoku
Justin Sablich Baker Mayfield James Cook Tyreek Hill Travis Kelce
Kevin English Baker Mayfield Alvin Kamara Terry McLaurin T.J. Hockenson
Kyle Zeigler Kyler Murray Omarion Hampton Tee Higgins T.J. Hockenson
Lance Gandy Dak Prescott De’Von Achane Malik Nabers Travis Kelce
Lawrence Iacona Kyler Murray Jonathan Taylor Chris Olave Mark Andrews
Marc Shannep (Fantasy Knockout) Tua Tagovailoa Breece Hall Chris Olave
Mark Ringo Bo Nix Kenneth Walker III Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jake Ferguson
Matt De Lima Kyler Murray Kenneth Walker III Ladd McConkey Travis Kelce
Michael Tomlin Kyler Murray Breece Hall A.J. Brown Travis Kelce
Mike Fanelli Patrick Mahomes James Cook DJ Moore Mark Andrews
Mike Romar Jared Goff D’Andre Swift Marvin Harrison Jr. Travis Kelce
Muntradamus Justin Fields RJ Harvey Travis Hunter Jonnu Smith
Pat Fitzmaurice Jared Goff Breece Hall Marvin Harrison Jr. T.J. Hockenson
R.C. Fischer Justin Fields Breece Hall Marvin Harrison Jr.
Rich Piazza Brock Purdy Breece Hall Tyreek Hill Sam LaPorta
Richard Savill Baker Mayfield Jonathan Taylor Ladd McConkey Tucker Kraft
Ryan Lester Kyler Murray James Conner DJ Moore Mark Andrews
Seth Miller Kyler Murray David Montgomery Tyreek Hill Travis Kelce
Smitty from TheFantasyFootballShow Caleb Williams Christian McCaffrey Tyreek Hill Mark Andrews
Stephen Tomasin Jared Goff Bucky Irving Tyreek Hill Sam LaPorta
Steve Anagnos Matthew Stafford RJ Harvey George Pickens
Steve Bonham Jared Goff Christian McCaffrey Garrett Wilson Sam LaPorta
Steven Pintado Joe Burrow Bucky Irving Terry McLaurin Sam LaPorta
Trevor Land Patrick Mahomes Kenneth Walker III Brian Thomas Jr. Dalton Kincaid
Tyler Orginski Baker Mayfield RJ Harvey Garrett Wilson Evan Engram
Will Urion Kyler Murray Josh Jacobs Jaxon Smith-Njigba Sam LaPorta

 

 

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