Fantasy Baseball Player Notes

Get a season of reasonably good health out of Buxton and you're likely to run a profit, probably a big one. But what are the chances he'll play 150 or more games? In the five non-COVID years that he's been on the Twins' Opening Day roster, Buxton has averaged 81.6 games played and 271.2 at-bats. In 2021, Buxton missed 39 games with a strained hip, then broke his hand after being hit with a pitch in his third game back, causing him to miss another month. When healthy, Buxton will steal a lot of bases and score plenty of runs. He's added power, too, and he batted .306 over 61 games last year. Still only 28, Buxton has upside galore, but the risk level here is enormous.

Kirilloff had a poor 2021 season, ultimately succumbing to wrist surgery to fix an injury that has reportedly bothered him off and on for a few years at this point. Long-term, there's plenty of reason for optimism given his pedigree and strong minor league numbers. But for this year, he's more of a middling outfield filler. His quality of contact and home park aren't favorable enough to lead to a major outburst in power, and his surrounding lineup isn't strong enough to offer a favorable environment for counting stats. Kirilloff probably won't hurt you in batting average and he'll hit about 20 home runs, but players like that are a dime a dozen in redraft leagues. Take him late as a filler, but still view him as a target in keeper and dynasty formats.

Kepler's expected stats suggest he got pretty unlucky last year, as they looked a lot like his 2019 season where he hit 38 home runs and batted .252. On the plus side, he did swipe 10 bases, the first time he had reached double digits in that category in his career. His true outcome likely lies somewhere between his 2019 season and last year's numbers, and he's more of a .240, 20-homer bat. The bigger problem this year is that the Twins' lineup likely won't be strong, and his counting stats will take a hit. Kepler can fill in for you, just don't rely on him as a starter.