Fantasy Football Player Notes

It's about time, right? I remember last year on the podcast talking about Parker, saying there's a clear avenue for him to see 100-plus targets and that if Fitzpatrick was starting, I wanted him on my roster. Here we are 128 targets and a No. 7 wide receiver finish later. Fun fact: Parker and Michael Thomas were the only two receivers who posted at least 55 yards in 13 games last year. You were able to get Parker outside the top 60 wide receivers last year, something that isn't happening this time around. His current draft position is right around WR20-22, so you're receiving a discount from last year's production, and rightfully so. Preston Williams is back from his ACL injury, which isn't great news for Parker, who was the No. 34 wide receiver through nine weeks with Williams in the lineup. That was really solid for him considering where he was drafted, but once Williams left, Parker exploded and finished as the No. 2 wide receiver the remainder of the season. Part of the reason that happened was due to Ryan Fitzpatrick's willingness to target him relentlessly, as he averaged 9.5 targets per game over that span. To be fair, Williams is coming back, but both Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have opted out of the season, clearing up 110 targets from last year. Knowing Fitzpatrick is starting the season under center helps me feel more confident in Parker, but there's certainly hesitation in drafting him this year as the Dolphins defense is going to be much better, which will result in fewer pass attempts, and that they'll be moving to a rookie quarterback at some point. I think he's best viewed as a stable WR3 who comes with top-12 upside. If I knew Fitzpatrick would start all year, he'd be a WR2.

There are a lot of fantasy owners expecting Jordan Howard to be the lead back in Miami, though if I'm being honest, Breida may be the better option, and he's much cheaper. While health has been an issue for Breida, he's performed when given opportunity and will get most of the passing-down work in 2020. Staying on the field has been and will continue to be an obstacle.

The good news? Gesicki totaled 89 targets last year, which ranked seventh among tight ends. The bad news? He finished as the No. 11 tight end and now has Chan Gailey as his offensive coordinator. In the eight years Gailey has called an offense, his tight ends have finished 28th or worse in seven of them, with Tony Gonzalez being the only one who succeeded. Gesicki has averaged a measly 6.4 yards per target in the NFL to this point, which is bottom of the barrel, so you can't say that he's the difference maker that Gailey needs to feature. Drafting him as a TE1 is too risky.

Did you know that Williams was the No. 39 wide receiver through nine weeks last year? That was despite them having their bye in Week 5, as well as him not being a true starter until Week 3. He was extremely good his rookie year. He's coming off a torn ACL, which isn't an injury that's as detrimental as it used to be, but it may be tough for him to return as the same player in a brand-new offense. The Dolphins defense improved greatly, their run game should be much better, and they'll eventually transition to a rookie quarterback. These are all question marks, but fortunately, Williams is being drafted outside the top 60 wide receivers, similar to the way DeVante Parker was last year. Given their current prices (Williams WR61, Parker WR22), Williams seems like a much better value than Parker this year. Knowing that Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have opted out, there are plenty of targets up for grabs, making Williams a solid WR4/5 on fantasy teams that you can spot-start depending on matchups.

Fitzpatrick is going to start the season at quarterback for the Dolphins, but with Tua Tagovailoa waiting in the wings, it's unclear how long he'll last. Fitzpatrick closed 2019 strong with the Dolphins, and was a top-five fantasy quarterback over the final five weeks. But the Dolphins have perhaps the worst offensive line in football and are unlikely to compete for a playoff spot. He's only worth drafting as a backup in superflex or two-quarterback leagues and, even then, don't expect to be able to roster him past the midpoint of the season.

Bowden Jr. was traded to the Dolphins on September 5th. The Raiders signing of Theo Riddick was, in hindsight, a sign that Bowden may have been struggling to pick up the offense. It's unclear what his role will be with the Dolphins, but it's unlikely that he'll be fantasy relevant in 2020.