Fantasy Football Player Notes

Garrett Wilson had a fantastic rookie season, underscored by his WR30 finish in fantasy points per game. Wilson was ninth in PFF receiving grade, 23rd in YAC per reception, and 25th in yards per route run (per PFF minimum 50 targets). Wilson was also 14th in receiving yards (1,103), 16th in receptions (83), and ninth in red zone targets. If his quarterback play improves in 2023, the sky is the limit. Wilson had to suffer through the sixth-most unrealized air yards, 93rd-ranked target quality, and 92nd-ranked catchable target rate. Wilson should be viewed as a WR2 with WR1 upside in 2023.

There's no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets' first-year running back was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game in just seven games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked fourth in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run. The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for nine to 12 months. The team also signed veteran Dalvin Cook to a one-year deal worth up to $8.6 million, the largest signing of any RB during this free-agency period. It signifies that Cook is going to have a massive role to start the year with Hall coming off an injury. But even when Hall returns to full strength fantasy managers are likely looking at a 1A/1B crowded situation. Hall needs to be viewed as a fantasy RB2 with his upside case based on what he can do in the second half of the season. Hall was recently activated off the PUP list, while Cook continues to rehab his shoulder.

We may have finally seen the end of Dalvin Cook's elite status among fantasy RBs in 2022. The Vikings star RB finished dead last among all ball carries in rushing EPA and rushes for zero or negative yardage. Cook ended the season as the RB8 overall and RB10 in points per game despite earning the league's 4th-highest opportunity share (78%). With Minnesota re-investing in the running back position with Alexander Mattison returning, Cook was let go from the roster. Given Cook's downfall in efficiency, fantasy football managers need to proceed with caution drafting him even with him inking a big one-year deal with the New York Jets. He will likely be used the most during the start of the season, with Breece Hall returning from injury. However, the Jets have a brutal schedule through the first six weeks, providing Cook no easy path to fantasy production besides volume. And when Hall returns to full health, we are looking at a 1A/1B backfield situation that is hardly ideal for fantasy managers invested in Cook and/or Hall. Cook himself is also recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, giving him limited time to get caught up to speed in the Jets offense.

It will be strange to see Aaron Rodgers wearing a different shade of green now that he's moved from the Packers to the Jets. The 39-year-old Rodgers still makes some dazzling throws, but he experienced some statistical slippage in 2022. He threw only 26 TD passes, and his 12 interceptions were the most he'd thrown in a season since 2008. He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark of his 15 years as a starter. Rodgers' days as a QB1 may be over. He finished QB13 in fantasy scoring last season, but he was QB21 in fantasy points per game among QBs who played at least 10 games. Don't make the mistake of buying Rodgers based solely on the name brand. It's possible the change of venue will rekindle interest in Favre, but the Jets' defense is one of the best in the league, so Rodgers isn't going to be involved in a lot of shootouts and may end up being a glorified game manager in 2023.

Allen Lazard turned in a solid fantasy season in 2022, but if you were banking on him blowing the roof off, you were likely disappointed. Lazard was the WR34 in fantasy points per game, securing a 21.1% target share (33rd) and the 12th-most red zone targets among wideouts. Lazard could post similar numbers in New York with his immediate chemistry with Aaron Rodgers playing a factor. Just keep your expectations in check as a player that ranked outside the top 80 wide receivers in route win rate and win rate against man coverage has a hard ceiling for his fantasy outlook, even in the rosiest circumstances.

New York had a great real-life defense last year, but it only translated to the 10th-best scoring unit in fantasy football. I would have some concerns drafting them too aggressively in 2022, knowing that they will face the league's toughest schedule to start through the first six weeks of the season. Opening the year against a motivated Bills offense is not a recipe for fantasy success.

"Greg the Leg" has been a reliable source of fantasy points, finishing 5th, 12th and 12th in kicker fantasy scoring over the last three years. Zuerlein is known for his powerful leg, though accuracy can occasionally be an issue. (He's converted fewer than 83% of his FG tries in each of the last three years.) With QB Aaron Rodgers stabilizing the QB position, the Jets' offense should be more effective in 2023 and will likely provide Zuerlein with more scoring opportunities.

A low-ceiling, high-floor fantasy option, Tyler Conklin has finished TE17 and TE16 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring the last two seasons. Conklin's ceiling could be a little higher with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB for the Jets in 2023.

Israel "Izzy" Abanikanda didn't do much at Pittsburgh during his first two years there, but he finally broke out in 2022 as the team's No. 1 running back. The 5-foot-10 and 216-pound running back rushed for 1,426 yards and 20 touchdowns en route to a 39% dominator rating. Abanikanda would go on to finish as PFF's 8th-highest rusher in his draft class.

At Pitt's pro day, Abanikanda ran an unofficial 4.41 40-yard dash with some reports claiming he got under 4.3. He also jumped out of the building hitting 41 inches in the vertical (97th percentile) and 128 inches in the broad jump (95th percentile). His size/speed profile is extremely enticing.

Zach Wilson is coming off a disastrous 2022 season in which he completed 54.5% of his passes, threw more interceptions (7) than TD passes (6), and lost four of his last five starts. The Jets viewed Wilson as their quarterback of the future after drafting him No. 2 overall in 2021, but it's now he's ticketed for a backup role. Wilson has NFL-caliber arm talent and above-average mobility, so it's too early to completely slam the door on him, but Wilson's future is very uncertain.