Fantasy Football Player Notes

My highest-ranked rookie running back is Breece Hall. The Jets selected the Iowa State product at the top of Round 2, signifying his status as the team's locked-in RB1 for the foreseeable future. Hall's three-down skill set suggests he never has to come off the field, and the sheer volume he garners will vault him into redraft top-20 running back territory.

The Iowa State product totaled over 4,500 yards from scrimmage, 50 touchdowns and 80 catches over three seasons in the college ranks.

A workload of approximately 240 touches - based on ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay's projections and how many touches the cumulative Jets RB1 earned last season - would place Hall inside the top-15 considering every running back last season that hit that threshold finished inside that ranking.

2021 fourth-rounder Michael Carter had his moments as a rookie, but the Jets know he's just a No. 2 running back. Anticipate Hall to shoulder 15-20 touches per game based on the workload that Carter received last season when Tevin Coleman missed time.

From Weeks 7-9 with Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. Upon Coleman's return from injury in Week 10, Carter averaged 14 touches per game and a 55% snap share in the games they played together.

Elijah Moore ranked as the fantasy WR2 over his last stretch of six games played.

His 16.1 fantasy points per game would have ranked fifth had he continued the production the remainder of the season. Unfortunately his season was cut short due to injuries and COVID-19 implications. The addition of Garrett Wilson makes Moore's second-year ascension less certain as he did not have much target competition during his scorching finish outside of veteran Jamison Crowder.

After enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign in 2020 that saw Garrett Wilson earn a 34% dominator rating - which considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player commands within their offense - at 20 years old, the Ohio State product ran it back in impressive fashion in 2021.

The Buckeye scored 12 receiving touchdowns, compiled over 1,000 receiving yards and generated the FBS' 12th-highest passer rating when targeted (141.7).

He also proved to NFL teams that he was more than just a shifty slot receiver, averaging 3.00 yards per route run despite operating on the outside on 83% of his routes run, which nearly matched his same yards per route run average from 2020 when he spent most of his time inside.

And although Wilson's 2021 24% dominator rating was less than his sophomore campaign, that's really due to Ohio State's talent in the wide receiver room. He was competing for targets with senior Chris Olave and sophomore standout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the nation in PFF receiving grade (91.7).

Going beyond the box score reveals that Wilson is a versatile route runner who can align anywhere on the field and still win.

He was selected by the New York Jets 10th overall and joins a somewhat crowded WR room. And nobody can be sure Zach Wilson can support one or multiple fantasy assets. There are definitely question marks.

However, Wilson is worth betting on because he's shown the ability at Ohio State to command targets and produce in an offense littered with other elite talents. Doesn't hurt his chance that he was deemed open on 84% of his targets last season.

RIP Michael Carter RB1 szn. The Jets drafted workhorse running back Breece Hall at the top of the 2nd round, but even considered trading up for him in Round 1 before selecting him 36th overall. The draft capital shows New York's commitment towards Hall being their clear-cut RB1 for 2022 and beyond, which makes Carter nothing more than a hand-cuff. It's a reminder to always sell high on Day 3 running backs that flash as rookies; they can be easily replaced and likely won't "survive" draft after draft without investment from their team.

Carter's looking anywhere between five-to-eight touches per game with Hall entrenched as the bellcow, making the former UNC back near obsolete as anything other than a backup with some upside.

From Weeks 7-9 with Tevin Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. He also finished 10th in yards after contact per attempt (3.4) and third in PFF's elusive rating.

Carter's receiving ability also fueled four top-17 weekly finishes in 2021, three of which were inside the top-13 in games that featured quarterback checkdown king Mike White under center.

Corey Davis has an opt-out in his contract in 2023, so the writing is on the wall about his future in Gang Green. The team has invested high-end draft capital in WRs in the last two drafts, with their latest pick in Garrett Wilson profiling as someone that could line up in Davis' spot on the perimeter.

Still, Davis probably will be a starter to open the season, and he showed chemistry with Zach Wilson before he got hurt in 2021. The former Titan was the WR25 in half-point scoring with a 21% target share. He never played a game with fewer than 5 targets through his first six games.

Everything about Wilson's situation is improved from a year ago. The Jets have stockpiled their offense with WR Garrett Wilson, OG Laken Tomlinson, RB Breece Hall and a plethora of tight ends to give their young quarterback a chance of succeeding in his second season.
If New York's offensive line can hold up in pass protection, Wilson has a chance of delivering fantasy value.

Braxton Berrios ran a route on 88% of the Jets' dropbacks and commanded a 23% target share in Jamison Crowder's absence in Week 16. The plucky Berrios stepped up again with Crowder out in Week 17, commanding a 35% target share without even leading the New York Jets in routes run. He finished the day catching eight of 12 targets for 65 yards to go along with two touchdowns (one rushing and receiving).

He's worthy of as a depth stash because of his ability to command targets at a high rate: Berrios' 24% target rate per route run over the last two seasons ranks 14th among WRs with at least 100 targets.

He's coming off a 49-493-5 that probably represents the height of his potential. Now that he's gone from the Bengals to the Jets, Uzomah probably shouldn't be on your 2022 target list.

Tyler Conklin posted highs across all receiving categories while also serving as the TE15 in fantasy in 2021. He finished ninth in route participation, 12th in target share and ninth in receptions.

His impressive season earned him a three-year deal worth $21 million with the New York Jets.

But the Jets also signed ex-Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency and drafted Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the third round. The situation looks horrible for Conklin in a potential three-way tight end committee in a bad to below average offense.

However, the situation alone has made Conklin virtually free across the board in early best ball drafts, and I think he's worth the late-round dart throw. The former Minnesota Viking should be the favorite to earn primary pass-catching duties.