Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Barkley finished the season as the RB1 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 378 touches, 2,283 total yards, and 15 total touchdowns. This season, we have to have the volume conversation and the worries about that for Barkley's outlook for 2025. It's a similar conversation that we had with Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs before him. Is it a concern? Yep. Is it so damning that it should Barkley outside the top 3-5 running backs in preseason rankings? No. My bigger worry is Barkley's quietly meh tackle-breaking metrics last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he had the fourth-best explosive run rate, but he was also only 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The big thing that helped Barkley was Philly's awesome offensive line. Among those 46 backs, Barkley had the highest yards before contact per attempt (3.55). Barkley was chewing up almost four yards per carry before he faced the opposition. That helped him a ton, but it will likely help him again in 2025, as Philly will once again have one of the league's best offensive lines. Barkley remains a top 5 back in 2025 despite some of my concerns.

Last year, Brown still managed to finish as a WR1 (WR12) despite being locked inside a passing offense that finished with the fewest passing attempts in the NFL (448). Brown remains an elite receiving option. Last year, he ranked second in target share (31.1%), fifth in receiving yards per game (83), second in yards per route run (3.22), second in first-read share (42.1%), and second in first downs per route run (0.152, per Fantasy Points Data). Brown's insane per-route efficiency has been a calling card during his career. I don't expect much if any, drop-off from that this season. Despite his amazing talent, Brown was 25th in targets per game. Philly's passing volume will naturally regress, so we should see more volume for Brown and the rest of these pass catchers in 2025. The only question is how much. Brown remains a locked-in WR1 for this season, with his ceiling and floor tied to Philly's passing volume.

Before he essentially missed the last three games of last year's regular season with a concussion, Hurts was the QB5 in fantasy points per game. The Eagles leaned heavily on their ground game last year with the fewest passing attempts in the NFL, but that number will regress. Philly will pass more in 2025. It's not a question of if but how much. The "Tush Push" is still here despite certain NFL teams and their envy attempting to get rid of it. Hurts spiked the ball in the end zone 14 times last year as he led in red zone carries. While I don't see him hitting that number again, ten-plus rushing scores are probably a lock. Hurts also ranked first in carries per game and third in rushing yards among quarterbacks. I know I've discussed his rushing impact a ton here, but it's not like Hurts was a bad passer last year. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked fourth in yards per attempt, second in CPOE, 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and he had the 11th-lowest off-target rate last year (per Fantasy Points Data). With a cupboard full of skill weapons and a top 5-10 offensive line, Hurts remains a top-four fantasy quarterback with QB1 overall upside.

At this point, everyone should know and love what they get from DeVonta Smith yearly. He has finished as a top 20 wide receiver in fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons (WR15, WR20, WR14). Smith was awesome in nearly every metric last year. He was 11th in target share, 19th in yards per route run, 12th in first downs per route run, 17th in separation, and 11th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). While he might not be the sexiest pick of your draft with top 5-10 upside at wide receiver, he's a known commodity and a damn good one as a stalwart WR2.

Dallas Goedert missed seven games with hamstring and knee injuries last season. Injuries now seem to be part of the bargain when you draft Goedert, who's missed 22 games over the last five years and hasn't played a full season since he was a rookie in 2018. But Goedert is still reasonably productive when healthy. He had 42-496-2 in 10 regular-season games last year, then had 17-215-1 in the Eagles four-game postseason run to a championship. Goedert's troubling injury history and the run-heaviness of the Philadelphia offense are drawbacks, but Goedert still profiles as at least a high-end TE2.