Fantasy Football Player Notes

Yes, Derrick Henry finished with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns last year en route to a No. 3 finish. Yes, he was dominant in the playoffs. We still can't forget that he was the No. 14 running back in points per game before Week 10 last year, behind David Johnson and Mark Ingram. Should we automatically assume Henry picks up where he left off in 2019? My issue with Henry is that he's not involved in the passing-game, which lowers his weekly floor. That alone will allow us to choose someone like Alvin Kamara over him. Henry is best-suited as a second-round pick rather than one in the first round.

WPrior to the NFL Draft last year, I had D.K. Metcalf as my 1A receiver and Brown as my 1B. Loved them both, but Metcalf's landing spot moved him into the driver's seat. Maybe I underestimated just how much Brown could do without an elite quarterback. Despite not being a full-time player until Week 9 and seeing just 84 targets, Brown finished as the No. 21 wide receiver in his rookie season. There have been just 10 wide receivers over the last 10 years who've finished as a top-24 fantasy receiver while seeing fewer than 87 targets. Going back to when Ryan Tannehill started playing, Brown received a very stable 21 percent target share. That's not elite. Not bad, but not elite. Let's go from Week 9 through Week 17 when Brown moved to a full-time role. Brown's target share was 24 percent in that time, which ranked 10th among wide receivers. If we project Tannehill for 480-500 pass attempts, that'd amount to 115-120 targets. It is possible Brown's target share goes up but staying at 24 percent feels like it's repeatable. It's important to note that Brown averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards after the catch last year, a number that isn't repeatable. You typically won't see even the best of the best receivers average more than 6.0 yards after the catch. If you move Brown down to the 5.5 range, he would've recorded 187 fewer yards and finished as the WR28. Then you must factor in Tannehill's ridiculous 7.7 percent touchdown rate regressing, so don't automatically assume that Brown's efficiency remains the same. He's still a phenomenal talent, but he needs to get the bump in pass attempts to take the next step. If I were guaranteed 500 pass attempts out of Tannehill, I'd draft him as a low-end WR1. It's best to be a bit cautious though and have some equity built in, making him a WR2 with serious upside.

Many compared Smith to someone like Delanie Walker back when he was drafted in 2017. We saw shades of that and even heard Bill Belichick give him props as one of the top tight ends in the league prior to their playoff matchup. Still, he's going to need more than 3-5 targets per game to get into the TE1 conversation. Despite Walker going down for the year, Smith saw more than five targets just twice all season and finished with 44 on the year. With the offense still projected for less than 500 pass attempts, it'll be difficult for Smith to truly break out. He should be considered a strong streamer in good matchups.

When someone goes from anywhere in between 6.7 and 7.7 yards per attempt throughout their first six years, then jumps up to 9.6 yards per target, we call that an outlier, especially when said outlier contains just a 286-pass attempt sample size. We can't ignore it, though. Tannehill put his name on the record books, as his 117.5 QB Rating in 2019 ranks as the fourth-best all-time. His 0.67 fantasy points per actual pass attempt ranked as the fourth-best mark over the last 10 years. What made it all that more impressive is that he was sacked every 10.8 dropbacks, which was the third-most often in the league. By comparison, Drew Brees was sacked every 32.5 dropbacks. So, that leaves us saying, "Okay, we know there'll be regression, but how much?" Under Mike Vrabel, the Titans have run exactly 58.8 plays per game in each of his first two seasons as head coach. We know they want to be a run-first team, right? That's why the pass attempts have been 432 in 2018 and 448 in 2019. That's a problem. For the sake of argument, let's raise that number to 500, which would be a massive difference. Even assigning Tannehill a number of 8.3 yards per attempt (Patrick Mahomes' number from 2019), it would amount to 4,150 yards. Then let's say he throws a touchdown on 5.0 percent of his passes (Dak Prescott from 2019). That would amount to 25 touchdowns. So, 4,150 passing yards and 25 touchdowns while comparing him to Mahomes and Prescott, while raising his pass attempts up to 500? Do you see why it makes little sense to think Tannehill even approaches top-10 territory? By comparison, Tom Brady threw for 4,057 yards and 24 touchdowns last year - he was hardly usable. Treat Tannehill as a streamer and you'll be happy. He's a great No. 2 quarterback to have in Superflex/2QB leagues because he's locked into the job and has shown top-five upside, even if it's highly improbable.

It wasn't long ago where we were drafting Davis as a top-30 receiver with breakout potential. He's now going outside the top-60 wide receivers. It certainly doesn't help that he had to have toe surgery and is now missing time with the team. It's nothing major but it does put him at a major disadvantage when A.J. Brown has overtaken the alpha role on the team. When a team has averaged just 440 pass attempts over the last two years, it's tough to find more than one player with value. The wide receivers have averaged 251 targets per season and a 57 percent target share. So, even if we get Tannehill to 480 pass attempts, we're looking at 274 targets for the receivers, and we know Brown is getting roughly 21-25 percent of the overall target share. It does help that Tajae Sharpe and his 35 targets are gone, so we're trying to find a way to divvy up 135-158 targets between Davis and Adam Humphries (and others). That's enough for him to be reliable at times, especially if Tannehill can maintain some momentum from last year. We also can't forget that if Brown were to miss time, Davis would likely step into that 20-25 percent target share, and as a former first-round talent in a contract year, he could surprise. He has a little bit of a DeVante Parker feel to him, because make no mistake about it, Davis is a good football player. I like him as a late-round bench stash.

If you haven't looked at the depth chart behind Derrick Henry in Tennessee, you should know that Evans is the only one who should be considered his handcuff. The Titans worked out a long-term deal with Henry, so Evans may not even be in their long-term plans at the position even after they drafted him in the third round. But although he may not be built like a workhorse back, he has the potential to be electric in a run-heavy offense. The Titans would be wise to give him 5-10 touches even when Henry is healthy, though there's no guarantee that will be the case.

Remember when he was a target monster in Tampa Bay just two years ago and finished as a top-30 wide receiver? He dealt with injuries throughout the year, resulting in limited playing time and just 47 targets on the season. Even worse is that once A.J. Brown entered the lineup on a full-time basis, Humphries didn't see more than four targets in a game. Even if Humphries were to do something, it's not going to make you wonder how you missed it, because his ceiling is a fringe WR3. Shoot for upside in the later rounds. He doesn't have it.