Fantasy Football Player Notes
2024 PPR Draft Rankings
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1.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
Through 18 weeks, CeeDee Lamb finished as the top WR in half-PPR formats, amassing 335.7 fantasy points (19.7 per game, second-best). He had 135 receptions on 181 targets, totaling 1,749 yards with a long catch of 92 yards. Lamb scored 12 receiving and 2 rushing touchdowns, displaying versatility and consistency throughout the season.
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2.
Tyreek Hill
MIA
Tyreek Hill was second overall in total points, scoring 299.2 points (19.9 per game). He recorded 1,717 receiving yards from 112 catches on 158 targets, showcasing his deep-threat ability with a longest reception of 78 yards and 12 touchdowns.
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3.
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
This Bengals offense could look very different in 2024, but one thing remains certain.
Ja'Marr Chase is going to be the focal point. He finished with an impressive stat line: 100 receptions (career-high) on 145 targets (26% target share), amassing 1,216 yards at an average of 12.2 yards per catch. Chase scored 7 touchdowns while ranking top-10 in red zone targets. Over 16 games, he totaled 212.7 fantasy points, averaging a strong 13.3 points per game (WR13). But we all know Chase left production on the table without his healthy star QB. Weeks 1-10 with Joe Burrow, Chase averaged 16.2 points per game (6th) and 19.6 expected points per game (fifth). |
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4.
Justin Jefferson
MIN
Justin Jefferson finished the season 5th in points per game (16.8) despite missing seven games and losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins. Still, he had a standout season with 68 receptions from 100 targets, gaining a total of 1,074 receiving yards. Jefferson found the end zone 5 times, showcasing his ability to convert receptions into touchdowns. He commanded a 28% target share, 41% air yards share and finished 8th in weighted opportunity. Before Cousins' injury, he led all WRs in fantasy points scored (21.7 per game). Jefferson's ability to perform without Cousins last season suggests he can still produce in the Vikings 2024 offense that will be without it's former QB. He is going to fall in drafts as a result. But Weeks 15-18, Jefferson was still a clear-cut ALPHA without Cousins. 18.4 points per game (WR3) averaging 119 receiving yards per game.
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5.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): St. Brown finished third with 247.5 points (16.5 per game). He had 112 receptions for 1,371 yards and 9 touchdowns, proving to be a reliable target with a 12.2 yards per reception average. In the season's entirety, St. Brown commanded a 30% target share (6th) and 34% air yards share. He finished 4th overall in total receiving EPA and 11th in total weighted opportunity.
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6.
A.J. Brown
PHI
A.J. Brown rounded out the top five WRs, scoring 237.2 points (14.8 per game). He had 105 receptions for 1,447 yards and 7 touchdowns, demonstrating his ability to make big plays with a longest catch of 59 yards. Brown's only blemish was he - like the Eagles' entire offense - did not finish strong. In weeks 11-17, even with Goedert out of the lineup for a handful of games, AJB was out-scored by DeVonta Smith as the WR25 and WR35 in points per game. If the Eagles' late-season collapse trickles over in 2024, Brown's production might take a hit.
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7.
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
Garrett Wilson's 2023 peripheral metrics are tantalizing, with his actual production lackluster based on the horrible QB play in New York this past season. He finished with 95 receptions from a whopping 168 targets, amassing 1,042 receiving yards. Wilson only found the end zone three times. He wrapped up the year with 165.7 fantasy points in half-PPR formats, which placed him 31st overall among wide receivers, averaging 9.7 points per game (39th). Wilson was targeted on 30% of the Jets' passing plays, the 5th highest share in the league, and he led the NFL with a 46% air yards share. Assuming the Jets' quarterback play stabilizes and improves, Wilson's ceiling could rise even further in 2024.
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8.
Puka Nacua
LAR
Puka Nacua is so clearly the alpha in the Rams passing game. 9 catches for 181 yards and 2 TDs on 10 targets (29%) with 100 yards coming after the catch in his final game of his rookie season, capped off a historic rookie campaign that saw him break the receptions and receiving yards records for a first-year player. In his 18 games played, Nacua posted a 29% target share and 15.3 points per game (4th among all WRs). First in yards after the catch, 3rd in receiving EPA and 14th in weighted opportunity.
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9.
Davante Adams
LV
Davante Adams showed no signs of slowing down despite the QB carousel in Las Vegas. 45% air yard share (nearly 1,900 air yards, 2nd among all WRs) and a league-leading 33% target share with 103 catches on a whopping 175 targets, he notched 1,144 yards at an average of 11.1 yards per reception. Adams' ability to find the end zone was on full display as he secured 8 touchdowns, with the second-most red-zone targets in the NFL (29).
Adams racked up 213.9 points, averaging 12.6 points per game, which placed him as the 18th wide receiver in points per game and WR11 overall. Even at 31 years old, he's shown to still be QB-proof to be a high-end fantasy WR2. |
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10.
Chris Olave
NO
The usage metrics were ALL there for Chris Olave, who commanded a 25% target share and 40% air yards share (over 1,800 air yards, 8th). Olave made a significant impact with 87 receptions from 138 targets (12th), and he amassed 1,123 receiving yards (17th). He found the end zone 5 times ranked 21st among wide receivers in points per game. Nothing about Olave's talent suggests he should be a fantasy WR2, but that's likely going to be the case with Derek Carr back at QB. However, the duo showed glimpses of improvement in the second half of the season after the bye week as Olave ranked second in catchable target rate (89%) averaging 12.7 points per game (WR16).
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11.
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
Brandon Aiyuk operated as the more traditional WR1 in the 49ers offense in 2023, leading the team with nearly 1,500 receiving yards and 8 TDs in 19 games played despite a mediocre role in the red zone. He led the 49ers offense with a 24% target share and 39% air yards share (15th). 20th overall in weighted opportunity. Aiyuk averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game (WR19) finishing with career-highs across the board in his fourth season. Entering a contract year at age 26, we still may not have seen the best to come from Aiyuk fresh off a second consecutive top-15 WR finish in half-PPR. His efficiency numbers are off the charts as a top-5 finisher in yards per route run in 2023.
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12.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND
Michael Pittman Jr. proved his alpha status all year long in the Colts offense with 109 receptions (7th) on 156 targets, accumulating 1,152 yards, averaging 10.6 yards per catch. Like Josh Downs, he had an equally bad TD production with only 4 TDs. Even so, in 16 games, racking up 195.7 fantasy points (WR15 overall), which averages out to 12.2 points per game (WR19). Nearly 1300 air yards (33% air yards share), with a 30% target share to boot - 4th-highest among all WRs. Pittman comes with a super-high floor that could be further unlocked with better TD variance in 2024. He will return to the Colts after signing a long-term contract extension.
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13.
DJ Moore
CHI
D.J. Moore finished with 96 receptions on 136 targets, accumulating 1,364 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. These impressive numbers placed him as the 6th overall wide receiver in total fantasy points and 10th in fantasy points per game with an average of 14.0. More impressively, he captured a 43% air yards share within his team, the 4th highest in the league, and garnered a top-10 target share at 29%. His 6th place in weighted opportunity highlights his importance in the offensive scheme, combining targets and air yards to showcase his integral role in the Bears' passing game. A notable aspect of Moore's season was his performance with quarterback Justin Fields over 12 games. During this stretch, Moore averaged 16.8 points per game, demonstrating high-end WR1 production. He amassed over 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns, with an impressive 91 receiving yards per game. Therefore, fantasy managers need to adjust expectations if/when Fields gets replaced by a rookie QB, that will likely hinder Moore's fantasy upside in 2024. As will the addition of a target machine, WR Keenan Allen.
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14.
Drake London
ATL
Drake London's usage numbers were strong in 2023, commanding a 23% target share and 31% air yards share. Over 1,200 air yards, 69 catches and 905 receiving yards, but with just 2 TDs. The lack of TDs positioned London as the WR39 overall, averaging just 8.7 points per game (WR46). Like many WRs, London's ceiling cannot be realized unless the Falcons improve their QB play. Until that happens, he's a talented real-life WR relegated to fantasy WR3 status. Hello, Kirk Cousins.
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15.
Mike Evans
TB
Mike Evans ranked as the WR4 Iin 2023, totaling 239.3 points (14.4 per game, WR8). He caught 76 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns, displaying his scoring prowess with a long catch of 75 yards. He re-signed a two-year deal with the Buccaneers, keeping his talents in Tampa Bay.
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16.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA
Tyreek Hill will be at the top of nearly every single fantasy football draft, whereas Jaylen Waddle will be drafted much later than in 2024 after his worst professional season to date. WR34 overall and WR24 in points per game (11.6). He still managed over 1,000 receiving yards in 14 games but he scored just 4 times. But his 24% target share was still excellent. He also posted his highest yards per route run (6th) and PFF receiving grade of his career (5th). Probably a sharp buy-low candidate.
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17.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
SF
Deebo Samuel was electric during the fantasy football season, finishing as the fantasy WR12 overall in 15 games played averaging 14.2 points per game as the WR9.
The dominant YAC receiver ranked second on the team in target share (22%) and second in total TDs (12) with his dual usage as both a rusher/receiver. Samuel finished the year with the most total red-zone touches among all WRs. As we project Samuel into 2024, two things need to be strongly considered. First, his injury history is based on how physical of a player he is. Second, he may experience impending TD regression given he scored more fantasy points above expectation than any other WR from Weeks 1-17. He was the WR26 in expected points per game (10.9). His rushing production is difficult to rely on year-to-year, and Brandon Aiyuk is continuing his ascent into the top-tier WR conversation entering a contract year. |
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18.
Stefon Diggs
HOU
2023 was a terrible year for Stefon Diggs. He was WR10 overall, but he averaged just 13 points per game as the WR15 in half-point scoring. And his lackluster finish is what had fantasy football gamers pulling their hair out. From Week 10 onward, Diggs was the WR45 averaging a meager 7.3 points and 42 receiving yards per game. This was right around the time the Bills swapped Joe Brady as their new offensive coordinator as Ken Dorsey was fired after Week 10's loss to the Denver Broncos. And it's not like Diggs wasn't seeing opportunities. On the year, the Bills' polarizing WR finished just below a 30% target share with over 1,800 air yards. 12th overall in weighted opportunity. Even during the bad finish, Diggs still had a 25% target share and strong route participation at 85%. That makes it tough to draft Diggs confidently coming off career-lows across the board entering his age 31 season. Even with C.J. Stroud as his QB, competition from both Tank Dell and Nico Collins could mark the end of Diggs' alpha WR status in fantasy football.
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19.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
FA
Marvin Harrison Jr.'s tenure at Ohio State was marked by rapid development, transitioning from a reserved role as a true freshman to a dominant force by his sophomore year. Although given the talent he was competing with for targets as a freshman in 2021 at Ohio State - Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba - it's no wonder Harrison couldn't crack the starting lineup. But the 19-year-old finally drew his first start in the Rose Bowl going nuclear to the tune of 6 catches for 71 yards and 3 TDs. Harrison's junior year further solidified his status as a premier talent, earning him a Heisman Trophy finalist nod-a rare feat for a wide receiver. He concluded the season with 67 receptions for 1,211 yards and 14 TDs. That awarded him not only a 44% dominator rating (second-best mark in the class) but the 2023 Fred Biletnikoff Award bestowed to the best WR in college football.
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20.
Nico Collins
HOU
Nico Collins' third-year breakout was truly remarkable. The former Michigan product had glimpses of potential in his first two seasons, but being paired with C.J. Stroud unlocked his fantasy ceiling in 2023. He was a YAC God. Nearly 1500 receiving yards with 1,370 air yards. 641 yards came after the catch. 24% target share. His 3.11 yards per route run ranked second among all WRs. Only three other players have accomplished this feat since 2017 - Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp and Julio Jones. Collins averaged 14.6 points per game in 17 games played in 2023 and 15.7 points per game in 15 games played alongside Stroud. Even if newly acquired veteran Stefon Diggs eats into Collins' target share, his efficiency should remain high with another viable weapon for the defense to be concerned about.
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21.
Rashee Rice
KC
Rashee Rice caught 105 balls for 1,200 yards in 20 games played in 2023 with 8 receiving TDs (19% target share). The former standout from SMU averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game - 29th. His role grew substantially after Week 6, and the rookie delivered averaging 12.1 points per game - placing him firmly inside the top 20. Rice finished the year with a 28% target rate per route run - 13th among all WRs last season. He was Patrick Mahomes's primary underneath option with the lowest average depth of target in the NFL among WRs (5.2). Rice finished the season 6th in targets inside the 10-yard line - more than Travis Kelce. The only "concern" for the Chiefs WR entering Year 2 is that Kansas City will be a favorite team to add more competition at the WR position. So far they have added Marquise Brown. And given Rice's new legal situation, he will likely be facing a suspension, shrouding his availability for the start of the 2024 NFL season.
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22.
DK Metcalf
SEA
D.K. Metcalf finished 2023 with 66 receptions on 119 targets (23% target share), accumulating 1,114 yards and over 1,500 air yards (40% air yards share, 14th), averaging 16.9 yards per reception as the WR16 overall. 22nd in weighted opportunity. His longest catch of the season was a notable 73-yard play. He demonstrated his big-play capability with 37 receptions of 20+ yards (10th) and finished 20th in points per game (12.0). Metcalf scored 8 touchdowns, underlining his scoring prowess over 16 games with the 5th-most end-zone targets (15). He missed the first game of his NFL career in 2023. He's an Iron Man and a staple of consistency as high-end fantasy WR2.
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23.
DeVonta Smith
PHI
Over the last two seasons, DeVonta Smith has FEASTED when A.J. Brown or Dallas Goedert has missed games. This season, Smith was WR16 from Weeks 11-18 after DG got hurt. Including the postseason, Smith averaged 13.6 points per game (backend fantasy WR1 numbers). But before Week 11, Smith was WR25 overall averaging 10.9 points per game (WR29). Again, Smith's talent is undeniable, but it's clear that for him to be a fantasy WR1, somebody else in the Eagles passing game has to take a step back. Overall, Smith finished the year 20th in points per game (12.2) with a 24% target share.
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24.
Cooper Kupp
LAR
Many will point to the injuries Cooper Kupp has dealt with throughout the season, as a reason to be concerned about him moving forward. He hasn't looked like himself all season and he will be 31 in 2024. A lot of his production was salvaged by his 5 receiving TDs. Posted a career-low yards per route run (1.77). Kupp was WR27 in points per game in 2023 despite a 26% target share.
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25.
Keenan Allen
CHI
Keenan Allen was a league winner. Third in points per game. WR8 overall. 3rd in target share at 31%. He will be 32 in 2024. In yet, he showed no signs of slowing down with Justin Herbert as his QB. But he will face new challenges in 2024, after being traded to the Bears for a 4th-round pick. Allen himself is hurt by the transaction, given the massive downgrade in QB play, while he battles father time past age 30. Allen's avoided the age cliff up to this point, but a brand new situation with a rookie QB could be the beginning of his downfall.
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26.
Amari Cooper
CLE
Amari Cooper's season-long statistics were impressive during the fantasy football season despite playing with 4 different QBs. 10th in yards (1,250) and tied for second behind only Tyreek Hill in 20 yards gains (42). 10th-highest air yards share at 41%.
17th in points per game (12.7) as the WR18 overall through 17 games. But projecting Cooper ahead, we can look at his 5-game splits with Deshaun Watson has his QB. 23% target share, 42% air yards share were in-line with his full season long usage numbers. Averaged just under 100 receiving yards per game. 14.8 fantasy points per game (6th) and 15.7 expected fantasy points per game (15th). |
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27.
Zay Flowers
BAL
Rookie Zay Flowers emerged as Lamar Jackson's top target, hauling in 5 of his 8 targets (24% target share) for 115 yards and scoring the Ravens' lone receiving touchdown on a spectacular 54-yard play. As he has done all season, he was the clear-cut No. 1 WR for Baltimore. Flowers led the Ravens in air yards/target share (24%) in 2023, totaling over 1,000 air yards, 1,000 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs (plus one rushing TD) on 86 catches in 18 games played in 2023. Although his final stat line as the WR29 overall and WR31 in points per game (10.7) suggest he left some production on the table. He finished 11th in route participation among all WRs (88%). Only 3 WRs with a route participation that high finished with fewer than 11 points per game.
Note that Flowers is reportedly under investigation for an alleged possible domestic assault, but he has not been charged with any crime at this time. |
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28.
Tee Higgins
CIN
Tee Higgins recorded 42 receptions from 76 targets, covering 656 yards with a notable average of 15.6 yards per reception. Demonstrating his big-play ability, Higgins had 14 receptions of 20+ yards to go along with a team-high 37% air yards share (17th) on just an 18% target share. He scored 5 touchdowns. Playing in 12 games, Higgins accumulated 116.6 fantasy points, averaging 9.7 points per game (WR40). He dealt with injuries throughout the season and failed to finish as a fantasy WR2 for the first time in the last three seasons. Ergo, 2023 stands out like a complete outlier for the 25-year-old WR, who will likely play for the Bengals for one more season after being franchise-tagged. The command of air yards shows that Higgins is still a dominant downfield receiver, as are the 4 games where he scored 20-plus fantasy points.
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29.
Christian Kirk
JAC
Christian Kirk played an integral role in the Jaguars' passing game, with 57 receptions on 85 targets (21% target share) for 787 yards, averaging 13.8 yards per catch. Kirk found the end zone 3 times during the season. In 12 games, Kirk accumulated 121.8 fantasy points, averaging 11 points per game, positioning him as a reliable flex option in fantasy leagues. WR28 in points per game. When he and Calvin Ridley were both healthy, Kirk posted the higher target share at 21% as the WR23 overall. With Ridley replaced by the "can't earn targets" Gabe Davis, Kirk will the WR1 in the Jaguars offense.
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30.
Tank Dell
HOU
Tank Dell posted an identical air yards share to Nico Collins (31%) while falling just short in target share (21%). Note that Dell posted over 1,000 air yards in just 10 games played.
In those games, Dell posted a 20.5% target share, 33% air yards share and 14.2 points per game. In the 8 games, Collins and Dell played together - each missed a game with injury - the production was nearly identical. 13.9 points per game for Collins and 14 points per game for Dell. |
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31.
George Pickens
PIT
In four games with Mason Rudolph, George Pickens averaged a 24% target share, 44% air yards share, 14.6 fantasy points (backend fantasy WR1 numbers) and nearly 100 receiving yards per game. On the year, Pickens hauled in 63 receptions from 106 targets, accumulating 1,140 yards, which translated to a remarkable 18.1 yards per reception Weeks 1-18. Pickens closed out the season with 177.3 fantasy points, which gave him an impressive average of 10.3 points per game, ranking him 33rd among wide receivers in points per game. He finished with a 24% target share (6.5 targets per game) and 41% air yards share (13th in total air yards). Pickens offers a lot of upside if Pittsburgh can find the right guy under center. Russell Wilson offers much more upside than Kenny Pickett, given he is a threat to the throw the ball downfield (8th in deep ball rate in 2023). Pickens also will be true alpha in 2024, with Diontae Johnson traded to the Panthers. During the first 5 weeks of the 2023 season with DJ sidelined, Pickens was the WR13 in fantasy averaging 12.8 points per game (19th) with a 43% air yards share and 24% target share. Averaged nearly 80 receiving yards per game.
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32.
Terry McLaurin
WAS
With a final tally of 79 receptions on 132 targets, Terry McLaurin accrued 1,002 receiving yards, averaging 12.7 yards per reception. His longest reception was a 48-yard catch, contributing to his total of 23 catches of 20+ yards. He found the end zone 4 times, finishing the season with 163.7 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring, which placed him at 32nd overall among wide receivers and 41st in points per game with 9.6. McLaurin's utilization in the offensive scheme was reflected in his air yards metrics - he held the 23rd spot in air yards share with 35%, emphasizing his role as a deep threat in the team's offense. His total air yards exceeded 1500, ranking him 13th league-wide, a testament to the Commanders' trust in him to stretch the field. While his touchdowns could see an uptick with better quarterback play or offensive scheme changes, his steady reception and yardage totals make him a reliable WR2/3 at worst in 2024.
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33.
Malik Nabers
FA
Malik Nabers, a junior wide receiver from LSU, made significant waves in the college football scene with his impressive 3-year career. Standing at 6 feet and weighing 200 pounds, Nabers led all college wide receivers during the regular season with 86 receptions for 1,546 yards and 14 touchdowns (34% dominator rating). Over his collegiate career, he accumulated 186 receptions for 2,983 yards and 21 touchdowns, showcasing his consistent development and explosive playmaking ability. His 28% career college dominator rating ranks 3rd among all WRs in the 2024 draft class. But what's more impressive is Nabers' age-adjusted production. Broke out at 18 years old in 2021 as a freshman. A great sign of things to come for him at the next level.
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34.
Calvin Ridley
TEN
Calvin Ridley secured a pivotal role in the Jaguars' offense, catching 76 passes on 136 targets for 1,016 yards, averaging 13.4 yards per reception. Nearly 1,800 air yards on a 22.5% target share and 36% air yards share. He scored 8 touchdowns.
Across 17 games, he totaled 191.9 fantasy points, averaging 11.3 points per game, making him a solid WR2 in fantasy formats. WR17 overall but WR26 in points per game. Ridley led the entire NFL in end zone targets (24). He was the WR10 in expected fantasy points per game. But he never fully took advantage of his elite opportunities to churn out a fantasy WR1 season. He signed with the Titans as a free agent, to be their new WR1 alongside DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins was a fringe fantasy WR1 in ppg with Will Levis at QB albeit in a run-heavy offense. Ridley's going to continue to have spiked weeks of production in a more pass-heavy centric offense heralded by new head coach Brian Callahan. Assuming that the Titans don't draft a top-tier rookie WR - still very much in play as Hopkins enters the final year of his career - a concentrated target share between Hopkins/Ridley would be ideal for fantasy purposes. It's possible that Tennessee might not value the TE position, given the Bengals' lack of TE production under Callahan the last several years. |
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35.
Chris Godwin
TB
Unlike Mike Evans, Godwin did not experience the same type of resurgence with Baker Mayfield at QB. At least when it comes to scoring fantasy points. Godwin led the Buccaneers with 91 catches for 1,1109 receiving yards, but he only caught 3 TDs...in 19 games played. Meanwhile, Evans totaled 14. His target share (23%) was nearly identical to Evans (25%). But it was the lack of high-value opportunities that nuked Godwin in fantasy football. As a result, he finished with under 10 fantasy points per game (outside top-36 WRs). No player scored fewer TDs with more receiving yards than Godwin. Based on his usage he should be closer to a total of double-digit scores versus the 3 TDs he has the past two years. Still, at 28 years old, Godwin could be in for a major bounce back if Evans leaves Tampa Bay in free agency.
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36.
Rome Odunze
FA
Washington's Rome Odunze's four-year career with the Huskies has been marked by consistent improvement, with his junior year in 2022 marking his status as one of college football's best WRs: accumulating 75 catches for 1,145 yards, averaging 15.3 yards per reception, with 7 TDs.
The 2023 season saw further improvement, with the 6-foot-3 and 215-pound WR amassing 81 catches for 1,428 yards and 13 TDs, leading to a spot on the AP first team among other awards en route to a career-high 33% dominator rating. And that was accomplished with him battling through a reported broken rib and punctured lung in late September. Overall, he finished with the 4th-highest dominator rating in the class at 26%. Also broke out at the early age of 19 years old, during his sophomore campaign. |
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37.
Jordan Addison
MIN
Jordan Addison ended the season with 70 receptions on 108 targets, amassing 911 yards at an average of 13 yards per reception. His long play of the season was a 62-yard catch. He was particularly effective in the red zone, scoring 10 touchdowns (5th) on a 17% target share. Totaled over 1,300 air yards. He played in all 17 games, contributing consistently to the Vikings' offense, with a total of 186.3 fantasy points, averaging about 11 points per game (WR28). Addison averaged slightly more points per game 12.2 (22% target share and 4 TDs) versus 10.1 (6 TDs) with Justin Jefferson sidelined. Considering the team will likely be without T.J. Hockenson to start the 2024 season coming off a torn ACL/MCL, Addison initially looked like a strong bet to return early low-end WR2 value in Year 2. However his stock will be hurt without Kirk Cousins under center in 2024.
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38.
Jayden Reed
GB
I loved Jayden Reed coming out as a prospect and his rookie campaign makes me excited for what the future holds. He didn't always play a full-time role as the team's primary slot WR - sub 60% route participation - but he was always targeted heavily with a 25% target rate per route run. He also led all Packers WRs in fantasy points per game at 10.6 - good for WR31 status this past season. He averaged just under 2 yards per route run with ten total touchdowns scored.
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39.
DeAndre Hopkins
TEN
DeAndre Hopkins showcased his elite receiving skills with 75 catches on 137 targets (28% target share), amassing 1,057 receiving yards, averaging 14.1 yards per reception. He proved to be a deep threat with a long reception of 61 yards and 27 catches of 20+ yards. 1,934 total air yards (42%) - the most of any WR during the regular season. Over 17 games, Hopkins scored a total of 186.1 fantasy points, averaging 10.9 points per game (29th) marking him as a dependable WR2 in fantasy lineups. WR22 overall. Specifically, with Will Levis under center, Hopkins posted a 27% target share, 46% air yards share and 13.4 fantasy points per game (WR13). And that came with a sub-50% catch rate. But with Calvin Ridley added to the fold as legitimate target competition, Hopkins' fantasy value takes a hit.
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40.
Marquise Brown
KC
The 2024 free agent had a year to forget in 2023. He struggled with bad Cardinals quarterback play before Kyler Murray returned to the starting lineup as the WR21 overall and as the WR34 in points per game (10.2). But after Murray returned, the Cardinals WR still didn't produce. 5.8 points per game in three full healthy games before ultimately missing the remainder of the season due to injuries. Overall, Brown hauled in 51 receptions on 101 targets, accumulating 574 yards at an average of 11.3 yards per catch. He scored 109.2 points over the season, averaging 7.8 points per game (53rd) in 13 games played. The lack of production was shocking, considering Brown posted nearly 1,200 air yards, a 25% target share, and 39% air yards share with the 16th-highest weighted opportunity rating. But, it's hard to argue against him in the best possible landing spot to resurrect his career with Patrick Mahomes in an offense that needs playmakers not named Rice and Travis Kelce. He can use his speed to stretch the field and be a threat to get the ball, unlike Marquez Valdes-Scatling. But if he hits, it's like as a fantasy WR2.
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41.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA
In his first season, JSN managed 63 receptions from 93 targets (17.5% target share), totaling 628 yards with an average of 10 yards per reception. Smith-Njigba scored 4 touchdowns, indicating his growing role in the Seahawks' offensive scheme. 59th in points per game (7.0) and WR48 overall. But it shouldn't be forgotten that Smith-Njigba suffered a wrist injury that contributed to a slow start. He started to hit his stride more from Week 6 onward where he averaged 8.2 points per game. But still over this span, his route participation (74%, 50th) and high-end target competition made it tough for JSN to produce. With more opportunities in 2024 at just 22 years old, Smith-Njigba is an easy breakout candidate.
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42.
Diontae Johnson
CAR
Before the switch to Mason Rudolph from Week 7-13 (when Diontae Johnson returned healthy), DJ led the team with a 26% target share and 9.2 fantasy points per game.
After Johnson returned from his injury in Week 7, he was overall very effective regardless of the QB play. He led the team with a 23% target share (as he typically does) while scoring 5 TDs averaging 9.7 points per game and 14 expected fantasy points per game. Despite the Steelers' offensive transitions and his own injuries to overcome, Johnson maintained his productivity, finishing the season with 127.2 fantasy points, averaging 10 points per game, and ranking 36th in points per game. Now in Carolina, Johnson will project for a boatload of targets in an offense that fueled Adam Thielen to WR25 finish. Johnson will be at worst a fantasy WR3 with potential ceiling unlocked if Bryce Young can take a step forward in 2024. |
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43.
Courtland Sutton
DEN
Without any ideas about who the Broncos QB will be in 2024, it's hard to make firm stances about Courtland Sutton. But, Sutton likely won't benefit from the same TD production for 2 years in a row. This past season made a mend for 2022 when he was so horrible at scoring. But now that things have leveled out, after a back-to-back 2-TD season with 10 scores, we are looking more at him in the 4-6 TD range for 2024. And that's going to make things tougher on him, because aside from TDs, Sutton's usage wasn't as great as the WR35 overall. IN fact, it looks pretty similar to Jerry Jeudy's aside from the TDs (10 vs 2). Both guys had 1,000-plus air yards (36% vs 37%), around 90 targets (21% vs 20%), 750-plus receiving yards and just under 60 receptions. But with Jeudy traded to the Browns, that should cement Sutton's floor as the team's projected No. 1 WR regardless fo QB play. Per John Daigle of 4for4, Sutton has a 23% target share without Jeudy the last 3 seasons.
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44.
Christian Watson
GB
Christian Watson's sophomore season was completely derailed by hamstring injuries. He missed the first three weeks of the season entirely and struggled to put together any consistent production until his last three games in the regular season when he hurt his hamstring again. Scored four TDs, while averaging 17.1 points per game. Watson has a high ceiling when healthy, but it cannot be realized until he solves his hamstring woes. He averaged 10.6 expected fantasy points per game.
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45.
Tyler Lockett
SEA
Tyler Lockett is past his prime and he showed it all year long with his very inconsistent play. 43rd in points per game (9.6) and WR33 overall despite a strong 22% target share and over 1,300 air yards. He failed to crack the top 30 WRs for the first time since 2017. It was also the first time he failed to match or exceed D.K. Metcalf in fantasy points.
Lockett recorded 79 receptions on 122 targets, totaling 894 receiving yards at an average of 11.3 yards per catch. He found the end zone 5 times. Lockett is also a logical cut candidate with him due nearly $28M against the salary cap in 2024 and 2025. Seattle has an "out" in his contract for 2024. Entering his age-32 season, you don't need to squint to see the potential fall for Lockett in fantasy football. |
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46.
Mike Williams
NYJ
Mike Williams was signed to a one-year deal worth $15 million by Gang Green, but he's going to be 30 years old coming off a Week 3 torn ACL. It's another band-aid fix that shouldn't dramatically alter the Jets' draft plans on a WR.
For what it's worth, Big Mike was productive before he got hurt. Ranked as WR15 overall and WR17 in points per game. Williams can at least slide in as the immediate No. 2 behind Garrett Wilson. |
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47.
Jakobi Meyers
LV
Jakobi Meyers' underrated talent was on full display all season in 2023, as the first-year Raider scored 8 receiving TDs (10 total) on a 21% target share and 15 red-zone targets (23rd). After failing comically to find the end zone as a member of the Patriots for most of his time spent there, Meyers couldn't stop scoring in 2023. This will likely regress next season as he scored four more TDs over expectation. Meyers accumulated 183.1 fantasy points over the season, resulting in an average of 11.4 points per game, ranking him 25th among wide receivers in points per game
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48.
Josh Downs
IND
Josh Downs made a notable impact in his rookie season with 68 receptions from 98 targets (17% target share), totaling 771 yards at an average of 11.3 yards per reception. Note that he was very unlucky when it came to scoring, with just two TDs. Only Drake London had more receiving yards and fewer than 3 TDs than Downs did in 2023. As a result, over 17 games, he amassed 123.1 fantasy points, averaging 7.2 points per game (WR46). But it should recognized that Downs' production fell off after he suffered a knee injury that lingered. Weeks 1-8, Downs led the Colts in yards per route run (2.0), averaging 9.9 points per game with a 19% target share.
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49.
Romeo Doubs
GB
Doubs followed up on decent rookie campaign with an improved second season. He was a consistent presence in the Packers' passing game, recording 69 receptions on 105 targets for 908 yards.
Doubs found the end zone 9 times, proving to be a valuable red zone target. Over 19 games, he averaged 9.4 points per game (WR47), making him a solid WR4 in fantasy leagues. He benefitted greatly from TDs and injuries to other primary Packers pass-catchers. Worth noting that he also failed to take full advantage of the vast opportunity in the offense, scoring fewer than his expected output (11.1 per game). |
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50.
Jerry Jeudy
CLE
Jeudy, showcased his route running finesse and quickness, turning his 54 receptions on 87 targets into 758 receiving yards, averaging 14 yards per catch in 2023. However, finding the end zone was less frequent for Jeudy, with only 2 touchdowns to his name. Over the season, he accumulated 114.8 fantasy points, coming out to an average of 7.2 points per game to a WR50 overall finish. Both Courtland Sutton and Jeudy had 1,000-plus air yards (36% vs 37%), around 90 targets (21% vs 20%), 750-plus receiving yards and just under 60 receptions. Hard to see Jeudy breaking the fantasy WR3 mold unless we get elite QB play from Deshaun Watson, in addition to the newcomer playing/earning a full-time role.
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51.
Jameson Williams
DET
Jameson Williams has had a tumultuous two years in the NFL. His rookie year was lost because of a torn ACL, and this year started out slow because of a suspension. When he's been on the field, he's teased big-play upside with a lot of inconsistencies and injuries. Entering Year 3, the former first-rounder will likely be viewed as a logical breakout candidate. After all, the WR2 job should be all his with Josh Reynolds slated to hit free agency. But he's hardly without his warts with just a 10% target share earned, 15% target rate per route run and 6.4 points per game scored in 2023 (WR66 same as Reynolds).
Williams might be overrated heading into 2024, because of his draft capital. But everything he showed in his second season suggests he still has a long way to go, especially as the "at best" third or fourth receiving option on the Lions. |
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52.
Adam Thielen
CAR
Adam Thielen's 2023 season provided the full-body experience of an older veteran WR with zero competition for targets. He started out of the gates red hot, as the WR11 overall through 11 weeks, scoring fantasy points per game at a top-15 rate at 13.7. But alas the 33-year-old could not continue his production with shoddy QB play from his rookie QB. WR51 from Weeks 12-18. Woof. With 103 receptions (10th) on 137 targets (25% target share, 14th), Thielen racked up 1,014 receiving yards, averaging 9.8 yards per reception, and notched 4 touchdown receptions running the 5th-most routes in the NFL. He ended the season with a 10.6 points per game average, securing him as the 25th overall wide receiver in half-PPR scoring. WR31 per game. He's under contract until 2026 and will be entering the offseason as the Panthers' No. 1 WR until they add more WRs in the draft/free agency - the latter of which will likely happen based on the Panthers' interest before this past year's trade deadline.
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53.
Jahan Dotson
WAS
Curtis Samuel is a free agent and could leave in free agency. This is important, because it suggests that we could have live for Jahan Dotson in Year 3. Dotson broke out as a rookie, but was a TOTAL BUST in 2023. And he ran all the routes you could possibly ask for. Garrett Wilson and teammate Terry McLaurin were the only guys who ran more routes than Dotson did in 2023. He was brutally inefficient - as was the entire Commanders passing game that was more volume over efficiency - finishing bottom-10 in yards per route run. But Samuel missed or played very little in 3 games in 2023 - Weeks 8,9, and 11. These were by FAR Dotson's best games. 15.2 points per game with a TD scored in all 3 contests. Still was narrowly out targeted by McLaurin as the No. 2 WR. McLaurin and Dotson need a C.J. Stroud-esque rookie QB impact for them to take any leap for fantasy football. Don't hold your breath.
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54.
Gabe Davis
JAC
Gabriel Davis did not play in the final two games of the Bills' season. The 2024 free agent will hit the open market in a relatively weak WR free agent class, which will likely create the demand for the extremely boom-or-bust WR. He finished the season as the WR40 in total points, averaging 8.2 points per game as the WR50. Davis posted 5 games with 20-plus fantasy points in 2023 to go along with 7 TDs and 1,200 air yards (30th), but he also went completely catch less in four of his last 8 games played. Even if he goes to a new team where he can improve on his 2023 15% target share (85th), Davis' body of work as a boom-or-bust player will be hard to knock. One could argue that with a step back with Trevor Lawrence has his new QB, his spiked weeks might also not be nearly as big even if he is slightly more consistent on a week-to-week basis. The latter is also hardly a lock, given the depth the Jaguars have across their several established pass-catchers.
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55.
Curtis Samuel
BUF
Curtis Samuel finished the 2023 season as the WR44 overall, averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game as the WR52 in points per game (7.9). Par for the course when it comes to Samuel, who always seems to string together consecutive weeks of production before seeing his numbers drop off because of injury.
His receiving numbers were nearly identical to his 2020 campaign, albeit he was more efficient as the Commanders primary slot WR. Unfortunately, he was barely used as a rusher with only 7 carries compared to 38 in 2022. Entering his age 28 season, Samuel has never finished higher than WR25 at any point during his career, regulating him to WR4 fantasy status regardless of any new landing spot. He will have his fair share of productive weeks, but nothing to move the needle as a fantasy game-changer. However it needs to be noted his best season came in 2020 under Joe Brady, his new OC in Buffalo. Attached to Josh Allen in a full-time role, Samuel has nice sleeper appeal in the Bills offense, especially with Stefon Diggs traded to the Houston Texans. |
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56.
Brandin Cooks
DAL
Brandin Cooks ended the season as the WR45 in points per game (9.1) and WR36 overall. After his sluggish start, Cooks was unlocked from Week 6 onward as we saw the Dallas offense start to click. WR22 overall and WR28 in points per game (11.2).
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57.
Joshua Palmer
LAC
Difficult to not view Josh Palmer as a legitimate winner after the Chargers moved on from both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the same offseason. Palmer stepped up big time in the Chargers offense last season when Williams/Allen missed time. In Week 18, he commanded 10 targets despite a 58% snap share. During the season, he posted an 18% target share and averaged 1.89 yards per route run. In games played without Williams fully healthy, Palmer averaged 10.6 points per game. During the final three games of the year with neither Williams or Allen or Justin Herbert available, Palmer hit a 20% target share and 23% target rate per route run averaging 11.5 points per game (WR25). The Chargers will draft a WR, so don't go crazy with Palmer. But note that he is the best in-house option on the roster at WR. Not Quentin Johnston.
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58.
Elijah Moore
CLE
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59.
Rashid Shaheed
NO
Rashid Shaheed enjoyed a solid sophomore season, as a boom-or-bust option. He totaled over 1,000 air yards on just 75 targets (14% target share). Shaheed excelled in making big plays, as seen in his 31 catches of over 20 yards (14th). He scored 132.6 fantasy points, averaging 8.3 points per game. Shaheed was ranked 49th among wide receivers in points per game.
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60.
Khalil Shakir
BUF
Khalil Shakir tied a bow on his second season on an extremely high note. He showed up big in the absence of Gabe Davis, catching 16 of 17 targets for 180 yards and 2 TDs over the last three games of the season. Shakir finished the season with the NFL's highest catch rate (88%) and passer rating generated (141.5). He led the Bills in receiving EPA, and ranked 16th overall in that category among all NFL receivers. He has definitely "earned" a bigger role in the offense in 2024.
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61.
Quentin Johnston
LAC
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62.
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN
A low-key winner of the Jerry Jeudy trade is second-year Broncos WR, Marvin Mims. Mims' role was redundant with Jeudy's last season, hence his limited playing time. His overall lackluster rookie year was tough due to lack of opportunity. He ran a route on 41% of the dropbacks - that outside the top 100. And we did see flashes with a 100-yard effort in his second game, along with another 73-yard game when he earned a season-high 5 targets back in Week 3. Was also named Second-Team All-Pro as a returner. Leave the light on for Mims to take off in Year 2 should he play starting snaps, which is much more likely with Jeudy gone.
Broncos HC Sean Payton said at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, that Mims' progression as a receiver was hindered because he played the same role as Jeudy. WR depth on Denver hurt Mims. Payton also said they were generally happy when they did get Mims involved - duh - and that should continue in Year 2. |
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63.
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG
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64.
Rashod Bateman
BAL
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65.
Zay Jones
JAC
Jones had a moderate impact with 34 receptions on 64 targets, gathering 321 yards at an average of 9.4 yards per reception. He was hurt the entire season with three different injuries, so I'd call his 2023 campaign a wash. Playing in 9 games, he earned 61.1 fantasy points with 2 TDs, averaging 6.8 points per game. WR62 in points per game. I'd look more at his final four games as a better representation of what we can expect from a healthy Jones. Without Kirk, Jones averaged 8 fantasy points per game and 17.3 expected points per game. Similar to Calvin Ridley, there was a stark difference between expected and actual production.
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66.
Darnell Mooney
ATL
Darnell Mooney is coming off a horrible and injury-plagued season, but I can't help but think he is going to be a STEAL in a very bad WR free agent class on a new team. The Bears drafted Tyler Scott in the 2023 draft to be Mooney's replacement in 2024. Mooney finished the season 10th in yards after the catch per reception (6.0) despite entering the year coming off a late November broken ankle injury.
Mooney shined his brightest from 2021-2022 in the NFL with a 27% target share. He has shown the ability to command targets at a high level. In Atlanta, there is nobody behind Drake London, cementing Mooney as the clear-cut WR2 in a Kirk Cousins-led offense. |
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67.
Tyler Boyd
CIN
Boyd had 67 receptions on 98 targets, totaling 667 receiving yards at an average of 10 yards per catch, with a long catch of 64 yards. Boyd found the end zone twice. Over 17 games, Boyd earned 112.3 fantasy points, averaging 6.6 points per game as the WR64 in points per game. He will likely be a nice depth piece for a new team in 2024, and possibly provide some early in-season production as he turns 30 years old.
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68.
Brian Thomas Jr.
FA
Brian Thomas Jr. posted modest numbers in his first two seasons until he exploded onto the scene this past year with a 33% dominator rating at 21 years old.
Standing tall at 6'4" and weighing 205 lbs, Thomas Jr. combines size and speed, evident in his 4.47-second 40-yard dash, to be a formidable boundary X-receiver. Over 38 games in college, he showcased his ability to be a game-changer, culminating in a junior year where he exploded onto the scene with 68 receptions for 1,177 yards and FBS leading 17 touchdowns, averaging an impressive 17.3 yards per catch. The obvious concern are that he's never been the focal point of his team's passing game, which won't get easier at the next level. That's despite a high production he has earned as he boasts the 6th-highest college dominator rating in the class at 24%. And he's competed for targets with another elite WR, Malik Nabers while playing at LSU. |
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69.
Michael Wilson
ARI
The highlight of Week 18? Rookie Michael Wilson.
6 targets (21% target share), 6 receptions for 95 yards, averaging 15.8 yards per catch, with a long of 28 yards. 68 air yards and 40% air yards share. The rookie posted a very under-the-radar campaign as a highly involved Cardinals WR. He ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks (35th among all WRs) which locks him into a full-time role in this offense next season, regardless of any additional moves they make. He also finished his season on an extremely high note, averaging 15.5 points per game after his last two contests with Marquise Brown out of the lineup. |
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70.
Adonai Mitchell
FA
As a Longhorn, AD Mitchell posted a breakout season en route to a 32 percent dominator rating with 11 TD scores on 55 receptions. Standing at 6'2″ with a lanky frame at 204 pounds, Mitchell offers an ideal build for an outside receiver. Mitchell reminded me a lot of a lighter Michael Pittman Jr. while watching him on film. At the NFL Combine, measured at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds and had a big day: 4.34-second 40-yard dash (94th percentile), 1.52-second 10-yard split (76th percentile), 39.5" vertical jump (89th percentile), 136" broad jump (98th percentile). His closest comparable per mockdraftable.com: D.J. Chark Jr.
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71.
Keon Coleman
FA
At 6'4" and 215 lbs, Keon Coleman's physicality is undeniable, making him a prototypical outside X-receiver. His junior year performance in his first year at Florida State was noteworthy, with 50 receptions, 658 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns, averaging 13.2 yards per reception. Good for a 31% dominator rating. But he broke out officially in his sophomore season the year prior at Michigan State, with 58 catches, 798 yards, and seven touchdowns over 12 games. Hung a 29% dominator rating at just 19 years old. And he did this while competing for targets with an older future NFL star in the making, Jayden Reed. Coleman had more catches, targets, yards and TDs than the future second-round pick, despite being three years YOUNGER than Reed.
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72.
Xavier Worthy
FA
Xavier Worthy, from the University of Texas, has swiftly become a notable figure in college football due to his remarkable speed and playmaking ability. Standing at an underwhelming 6 feet 1 inch and weighing 172 pounds, Worthy has utilized his athleticism to establish himself as a versatile threat on the field. His notable achievements include a freshman year with 62 receptions for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns, emphasizing his ability to be a game-changer from the get-go. He tied a bow on his Longhorns career with over 1,000 yards and 5 TDs his junior, to capture the second-highest career dominator rating (30%) in the class with the youngest breakout age at 18 years old.
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73.
Ladd McConkey
FA
Concerns are his late breakout age at 21 years old. But it was in his third season as a redshirt sophomore (2022) when he totaled 762 receiving yards and seven scores en route to a 20% dominator rating.
Be aware that he's been competing with arguably the best college football tight end of all-time in Brock Bowers for targets since he's been at Georgia. And in 2022, AD Mitchell (another projected 1st-rounder in this year's draft) was also a Bulldog but was firmly behind McConkey on the depth chart. In the two games that McConkey played in 2023 without Bowers healthy, he posted his two highest yardage outputs of final season. The 6-foot 185-pound WR missed time in his final year at Georgia with injuries, which hurt his final counting stats. But he was still efficient, finishing 8th in the nation in yards per route run (3.26). Even so, McConkey's game is characterized by his quickness, route polish, and speed rather than physical dominance. His agility in creating separation and his nuanced route-running skills allow him to find space in tight coverage. He will likely be more underrated than most other WRs based on his final-year stats and injuries, but it's unwarranted. He ran a sub 4.4 at the combine and owned collegiate success at a top program like Georgia. McConkey has the tools to transition effectively to the professional level. He's in the conversation to be selected in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft. |
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74.
DeMario Douglas
NE
Demario Douglas was essentially 2023's version of Jakobi Meyers - a completely afterthought of rookie WR that made an impact that could not score a TD to save his life. Case in point, his team leading 561 receiving yards were the most among all players to score 0 TDs in 2023.
Therefore, his final WR68 standing does a poor job projecting him going forward. He was the best playmaker on the Patriots all season. 18% target share. Earned 7 targets in his first NFL game. 5-plus targets in his 9 games played, seeing 7-plus in over half those contests. From Week 7 onward, Douglas produced a 21% target share (27th), 25% air yards share, 11 missed tackles and 12.6 expected fantasy points per game (31st). Slightly behind Rashee Rice. |
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75.
Treylon Burks
TEN
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76.
Darius Slayton
NYG
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77.
Jalin Hyatt
NYG
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78.
Jonathan Mingo
CAR
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79.
Dontayvion Wicks
GB
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80.
Troy Franklin
FA
By his junior season in 2023, Troy Franklin had established himself as a premier college football receiver, amassing nearly 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, demonstrating not just his ability to find the end zone but also his ceiling with a final season dominator rating of 29% - 17th-highest mark in the 2024 class. Franklin's strengths lie in his elite speed, with a rumored 40-yard dash time of 4.35 seconds, making him a formidable deep threat with 14 catches of 20-plus air yards and the third highest yards per route run (3.32) in the 2024 draft class. However, his relatively light, tall and lanky frame at 6-foot-3 and 183 lbs could pose challenges against physical cornerbacks and in contested catch situations
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81.
DJ Chark Jr.
FA
The 27-year-old is hitting free agency (again) after playing a complimentary role with the Panthers in 2023. Chark caught a long pass that was initially ruled a TD in Week 18, but it was overturned to a fumble through the end zone. Woof. He is a free agent in 2024 and will likely land on a new team as a complimentary deep threat who misses games with injuries.
Chark was the WR58 overall in 2023, averaging 6.5 points per game (65th). He led the Panthers in TDs (5) and posted over 1,000 air yards on a team-high 31% air yards share (33rd). No player had more air yards with fewer targets (66) than Chark despite two missed games. |
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82.
Alec Pierce
IND
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83.
Ricky Pearsall
FA
Ricky Pearsall broke out at Arizona State in his third season with a 28% dominator rating in 2021, tallying 580 yards and 4 TDs. Jayden Daniels was his starting QB after a 2020 season that was limited to four games due to the pandemic.
After transferring to the SEC, the 6-foot-1 and 189-pound WR continued to succeed over the next two years at Florida, with dominator ratings of 25% from 2022-2023, finishing with 963 receiving yards and 4 TDs in his final season as a Gator. In 2022, he was Anthony Richardson's No. 1 WR and out-produced future NFL draft pick, Justin Shorter. He averaged nearly 20 yards per catch as the team's slot WR. On the FantasyPros Football Podcast, our very own Thor Nystrom sat down with Pearsall to talk further about his route-running prowess and "ludicrous" hands. He's an older prospect, considering he will be 24 years old this season. And the other concern is how he can separate himself from his future NFL teammates when it comes to his target competition. His target share over expectation (0.9%) ranked 36th in the class. But he turned heads at the NFL Scouting Combine with string metrics across the board. 4.41 40-yard dash, 42″ vertical jump, 129″ broad jump, 4.05 20-yard shuttle (89th percentile) and 6.64 3-cone drill (93rd percentile). To me, Pearsall's experience as a fifth-year senior and refined game makes him a high-floor player that can get hit the get-go from Day 1, but he may not have any more ceiling to unlock unless he lands with a truly elite NFL passer. |
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84.
Xavier Legette
FA
Xavier Legette, the impactful wide receiver from South Carolina, emerged as a notable talent in college football with his commendable performances, particularly highlighted in his SUPER senior year. Standing at 6'3″ and weighing 227 lbs, Legette's physical stature is complemented by his athletic prowess, offering the ideal blend of size and speed required for an outside receiver, making him a formidable presence on the field.
One of Legette's most notable qualities is his strong hands - he doesn't use his body to catch the ball - and ability to secure catches in traffic, showcasing his reliability as a target. He broke out in his final and fifth year with the Gamecocks, hanging a 35% dominator rating. He posted 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns on 71 receptions. Entering the league at 23 years old as a one-year wonder raises red flags about Legette's appeal at the next level. The size-speed specimen is enticing, but the lack of consistent production cannot be overlooked. Easy comps for someone with this size and speed are receivers like D.K. Metcalf, who can often be more situationally dependent as a more "raw" prospect with traits that cannot be taught. Legette's combination of size, catching ability, and consistent playmaking make him an intriguing prospect for the 2024 NFL Draft. He will likely be extremely landing spot dependent as an obvious boom-or-bust WR. |
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85.
Odell Beckham Jr.
FA
Beckham just turned 31 years old and did not live up to his contract expectations as a Raven in 2023. WR63 overall averaging 6.4 fantasy points per game (WR67). However, he still had his moments averaging 1.8 yards per route run - identical to his averages during his time spent in Cleveland from 2019-2020. Top-30 WR in PFF receiving grade with a top-3 ADOT among WRs as a primary deep threat in the Ravens' offense. And once OBJ got his sea legs under him - after Week 8 - he started to show out more and more. 18th in yards per route run (2.3). He's not completely washed and still can provide some fantasy juice in a favorable offensive environment.
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86.
Roman Wilson
FA
At 5'10″ and 185 pounds, Roman Wilson combines athletic prowess with technical skill to make an impact on the field. He truly saved his best for last in Michigan's run for the national championship. His standout senior year saw him amassing 48 receptions for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns, resulting in a 37% dominator rating in 2023. It was the 6th-highest single-season dominator rating in the class.
The obvious concerns are his late breakout age at 22 years old and the fact that he could only muster one legitimate year of production. Even so, he was turning heads at the most recent Senior Bowl, and his stock has continued to rise after running a sub-4.40 yard-dash at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. He's drawn comparisons to Tyler Lockett from the Senior Bowl's own Jim Nagy. No doubt that's related to his deep prowess, given that 53% of his routes run were downfield per Sports Info Solutions. |
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87.
Rondale Moore
ATL
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88.
Ja'Lynn Polk
FA
Ja'Lynn Polk, the talented No. 2 wide receiver from Washington, made a notable mark in college football with his performances, particularly shining in his junior year. With a height of 6'1″ and weighing in at 203 lbs, Polk has the ideal build for a versatile receiver capable of playing both on the outside and in the slot.
In his time at Washington, Polk demonstrated significant growth, culminating in a senior year after suffering an injury as a sophomore. He recorded impressive stats with 69 receptions for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns, boasting an average of 16.8 yards per catch. He also started the 2023 season on absolute fire, scoring eight TDs in the first 10 weeks of the season alongside a teammate and fellow 2024 draft-eligible WR, Rome Odunze. Polk's blend of speed, agility, and size makes him a compelling prospect. His quickness off the line is complemented by his strong hands and body control, enabling him to make challenging catches in traffic. He's extremely well-rounded. Reminded me of Mohamed Sanu and Tyler Boyd. Other NFL Draft evaluators have compared Polk to Joshua Palmer. |
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89.
Michael Thomas
NO
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90.
Cedric Tillman
CLE
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91.
Andrei Iosivas
CIN
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92.
Devontez Walker
FA
Devontez Walker, the North Carolina standout wide receiver, made significant waves in the college football landscape with his explosive play and consistent performances, particularly in his junior year after transferring from Kent State.
Note that he posted bonkers numbers at Kent State with a 50% dominator rating in 2022 with 11 TD and nearly 1,000 receiving yards. That single-season dominator rating was the BEST among any WR in the class. At 6'2″ and weighing 193 lbs, Walker possesses the agility, speed, and long-stride ideal for a receiver who can excel both on the outside and in the slot, offering versatility to any offensive scheme as a big-play merchant. Walker showcased his dynamic playmaking ability, culminating in a 2023 junior year that saw him amass impressive statistics with 41 receptions for 699 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 17 yards per catch in just eight games. He earned a 22% dominator rating for his efforts, but over the games he was eligible to play, Tez Walker hung at a prorated 33% dominator rating with future NFL QB Drake Maye under center. He has a top-5 overall prorated dominator rating among his draft-eligible teammates. His ability to consistently produce big plays downfield made him a focal point of the Tar Heels' offense and a nightmare for opposing defenses. The downside is he doesn't offer much if anything after the catch. Shows signs of Marvin Jones in his game. There's an upside in his profile. He's got wheels with 4.36 speed. Also, can jump out of the building: 40.5″ vertical (93rd percentile) and 134″ broad jump (97th percentile). Both were top-5 testing numbers in the 2024 WR class. Tez Walker screams like a boom-or-bust product that needs a optimal landing spot to avoid being a disappointment. |
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93.
K.J. Osborn
NE
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94.
Kadarius Toney
KC
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95.
Malachi Corley
FA
Malachi Corley enjoyed multiple seasons of productivity at Western Kentucky, capped off with dominator ratings of 26% and 27% the last two seasons, with 11 receiving TDs in both years.
The former Hilltopper measures in at 5-foot-11 and 210 pounds but saw a lot of his production come through manufactured touches. Corley's calling card is using his thick frame to create yards-after-catch (YAC), using his agility and vision to navigate through defenses and extend plays. He finished second in the FBS in yards after the catch in 2023. In the 2024 WR draft class, Corley finished second in unique routes run and third in YAC/reception. |
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96.
Kendrick Bourne
NE
The Patriots re-signed Kendrick Bourne to a 3-year, $19.5 million contract. He will be 29 years old in 2024, coming off a Week 8 torn ACL injury. Before his injury, Bourne was the fantasy WR28 averaging 10.2 points per game in half-PPR (38th). Led the Patriots with a 19.4% target share with a 28% air yards share.
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97.
Brenden Rice
FA
Brenden Rice, the dynamic wide receiver from USC and son of GOAT WR Jerry Rice, has made a notable impact in the college football arena with his compelling performances. Standing at 6'3″ and weighing 208 lbs, Rice brings an imposing, well-built physical presence to the wide receiver position, coupled with an impressive blend of speed and athleticism that makes him a formidable threat on the field.
He immediately produced from the get-go at age 18, breaking out with a 22% dominator rating in a truncated 2020 season for Colorado, albeit on a very small sample size. Transferred to USC before the 2022 season. His stats in his senior year were particularly impressive, with 45 receptions for 791 yards and 12 touchdowns, boasting an average of 17.6 yards per catch. He finished 5th in target rate above expectation as Caleb Williams' No. 1 WR. Although a 25% final season dominator rating is underwhelming compared to the remainder of the class. Josh Palmer is my comparable NFL WR for him, as I think he will only go as far as his QB, offense, situation, etc. will get him. Although I'll admit, some of his size, hand work off the line of scrimmage looked like a young, spry Michael Thomas. And there's no denying that he can feast in the red zone - 19% of his catches have been TDs (21 total). |
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98.
Trey Palmer
TB
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99.
Michael Gallup
FA
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100.
DeVante Parker
PHI
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101.
Demarcus Robinson
LAR
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102.
A.T. Perry
NO
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103.
Jalen McMillan
FA
Jalen McMillan broke out in his second season at Washington at 20 years old. Compiled a 19% dominator rating which set the stage for what was coming for him in 2022 when he had his best college season with 1,098 receiving yards and 9 TDs - good for a 25% dominator rating despite competing for targets with future NFL WRs Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk. He led the Huskies in targets and catches in 2022.
Alas, he could not sustain that success into this past season as the No. 3 option in Washington's pass attack given his injury and lack of usage downfield (9.6 Adot) in a vertical passing attack. It won't get easier to command targets at the next level. But the fact that McMillan showed he's capable of rising to the occasion of elite target competition bodes well for him should he end up on a weak WR depth chart. He's a strong route runner with an early breakout age. McMillan has played over 89% of the snaps from the slot over the last two seasons. Odds are that one of McMillan or Polk will perform WELL above expectation at the next level, given how they likely hurt each other's statistics the past two seasons with Washington's spread offense. |
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104.
Jacob Cowing
FA
At under 5-foot-9 and 168 pounds soaking wet (1st percentile), Jacob Cowing may not possess the towering frame of some of his contemporaries, but what he lacks in size, he more than compensates for with his speed, agility, and precise/nuanced route-running, making him a constant threat to opposing defenses.
Because he dominated production at Arizona and his previous stop at UTEP. 32% career dominator rating ranks No. 1 in the class. 42% dominator rating in 2020 and 41% dominator rating in 2021 were elite numbers he posted while was a member of the UTEP Miners. He represented a top-5 best single-season mark. And Cowing also delivered early on in his college career, breaking out at age 18 in 2019. His senior year was particularly notable, with Cowing amassing 89 receptions for 868 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging a remarkable 9.8 yards per catch. His ability to stretch the field and create after the catch has been a hallmark of his college career. Unfortunately, Cowing could not boost his stock at the Senior Bowl. He suffered an injury. Hopefully, this is not a sign of things to come for the undersized WR, who might be pigeonholed into the slot at the next level. Definitely K.J. Hamler-esque. Especially given his size at 168 pounds. That's his official weight from the combine, slightly less than his previously listed weight at 175 pounds. But Cowing has decent long speed with sub 4.4 wheels, but that's too be expected. Nothing else about his drills pop off the page. 36-inch vertical (55th percentile). The 119-inch broad jump was below average (35th percentile). The 3-cone drill was at 7.02 (38th percentile). The 20-yard shuttle was listed at 4.32 (30th percentile). |
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105.
Noah Brown
HOU
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106.
Josh Reynolds
DEN
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107.
Robert Woods
HOU
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108.
Tyler Scott
CHI
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109.
Hunter Renfrow
FA
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110.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
FA
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111.
Greg Dortch
ARI
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112.
Tutu Atwell
LAR
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113.
John Metchie III
HOU
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114.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
NE
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115.
Allen Lazard
NYJ
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116.
Tre Tucker
LV
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117.
Skyy Moore
KC
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118.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
DET
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119.
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU
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120.
Bo Melton
GB
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121.
Jermaine Burton
FA
Jermaine Burton took forever to "break out" until his senior year at 22 years old with a 30% dominator rating as a member of the Crimson Tide.
He transferred from the University of Georgia over his first two seasons to Alabama his final two collegiate seasons. Although he did post a very serviceable 19% dominator rating his first year at Bama (essentially a breakout), with 677 yards and 7 TDs. And Burton also produced decently during his time in Georgia, despite facing a myriad of tough competition. 16% dominator rating in 2020 as a true freshman (19 years old) while competing for targets with George Pickens. During his second season as a Bulldog, Burton was second on the team in receiving yards behind only Brock Bowers - despite competing for targets with the aforementioned tight end, Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell. He was also used exclusively downfield during his final year, with a 20.2 aDOT (3rd-highest in the FBS) in 2023. And zero drops. Burton also led all WRs in the 2024 class and finished 12th overall in yards per route run. Burton possesses and explosive skillset with 4.45 wheels and jumps in the 82nd percentile-plus. He's a big play waiting to happen, but likely won't command a hyper-intense target share at the next level. He's got two games on his college resume with double-digit targets. He also has some off-field issue concerns that could hurt his draft capital in the real-life NFL. |
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122.
Javon Baker
FA
Javon Baker couldn't sniff the field at Alabama (he wanted the ball), so he transferred to UCF during the last two seasons of his college tenure. He enjoyed two strong seasons with the Knights, posting dominator ratings of 23% and 31%.
The 6-foot-1 and 202-pound WR was a big-play savant, owning the second-highest yards per reception (21.9) nationally in 2023. He ended the season 5th in yards per route run among the 2024 WR draft class (3.21). Reminds me a ton of DeVonta Smith from a route-running and body control perspective. But Baker has more size and YAC to his game. |
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123.
Van Jefferson
PIT
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124.
Isaiah Hodgins
NYG
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125.
Justin Watson
KC
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126.
Parker Washington
JAC
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127.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
KC
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128.
Jauan Jennings
SF
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129.
Jalen Tolbert
DAL
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130.
Nelson Agholor
BAL
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131.
Kalif Raymond
DET
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132.
Malik Washington
FA
The 5-foot-8 WR thrived at the East-West Shrine practices. Finished the 2023 season as PFF's second-highest graded WR (92.4). Malik Washington posted crazy numbers in his final and lone year at Virginia, after transferring from Northwestern. 47% dominator rating with 9 TDs and nearly 1,400 receiving yards for the 191-pound svelt WR. His 38% target share led all WRs in the 2024 draft class. His 2023 season was one of the best in the class. And his ascension continued into the testing with him posting impressive jumping numbers in both the broad and vertical leaps. No. 1 in the vertical jump in the class at 42.5″ (98th percentile). He may be short, but he is so stout and rocked up physically.
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133.
Johnny Wilson
FA
At an imposing 6'6″ and weighing 231 lbs, Johnny Wilson is a physical specimen who brings a unique set of attributes to the wide receiver position.
Wilson began his collegiate career at Arizona State before transferring to Florida State, where he truly flourished. His towering frame and catch radius made him a favorite target on contested catches. In his first season with the Seminoles, he racked up 43 receptions for 897 yards and five touchdowns for a 22% dominator rating, showcasing his ability as a constant threat to opposing defenses. The big concern is his late breakout age of 21, which came in 2022. He posted a 22% dominator rating but took a step back this past season with just two TDs after Keon Coleman took over as the No. 1 target for Florida State. Still, somebody will take a shot at his rare size, hoping they can recapture his 2022 form. Not to mention, his target rate above expectation (14.7%) ranked first in the 2024 WR class. He was targeted more often than he should have been - likely due to factors relating to his massive catch radius. When he's covered, he's still "open." Many NFL teams have expressed interest in converting Wilson to tight end, which would likely be a positive for his fantasy outlook. |
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134.
Calvin Austin III
PIT
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135.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TEN
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136.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
NO
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137.
Luke McCaffrey
FA
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138.
Parris Campbell
PHI
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139.
Justyn Ross
KC
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140.
Mack Hollins
BUF
Mack Hollins is entering his age 31 season (wait what) and signed with the Buffalo Bills this offseason, presumably to operate as a field-stretcher and downfield blocker. Our new cardio king.
Hollins has only had one productive season in the NFL (2022 with the Raiders as the fantasy WR41) when finished 10th in routes run per dropbacks (93%) and commanded 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver. The journeyman new landing spot will likely be completely overlooked by fantasy managers, but a WR running a route on 90% or more of Josh Allen's dropbacks (the Gabe Davis role) is pretty tantalizing, especially at a free price tag. Just don't get carried away with Hollins as anything more than a depth fantasy WR4/5 a best. Worth an addition in deeper WR formats. |
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141.
Jamari Thrash
FA
Jamari Thrash posted a top-10 career dominator rating in his draft class at 24%. A lot of that can be attributed to his marquee 2022 season at Georgia State, where Thrash posted a 43% dominator rating with over 1,100 yards and 7 TDs on 62 catches. That single-season rating was the third highest in the class.
The 6-foot and 188-pound WR transferred to Louisville this past season and caught 62 passes for the second straight season with a 26% dominator rating to boot. The jump in competition did not slow down Thrasher, who has been producing since he turned 20 years old as a sophomore at Georgia State. He tied a bow on his college career with a top-10 dominator rating in the class (24%). He's an older prospect at 23 years old, but that might help him hit the ground running as he makes another competitive leap to the NFL. Slippery after the catch and a savvy route runner are two of his most evident traits when you watch him on film. 12th in YAC/reception and 7th in broken/missed tackle rate in 2023. Finished 8th in the class in both target share (28%) and target rate above expectation (+8.1%). He is particularly adept at gaining yards after the catch, using his quickness to evade defenders. His acceleration off the line of scrimmage and ability to change direction swiftly make him a challenging assignment for opposing defensive backs. However, his vertical game is lacking and needs more consistency. Four drops on deep balls last season. And just 30% of his routes were deemed "deep" per Sports Info Solutions (25th). |
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142.
Chris Moore
ARI
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143.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WAS
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144.
Charlie Jones
CIN
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145.
Allen Robinson II
FA
|
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146.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
CAR
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147.
Isaiah McKenzie
NYG
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148.
Braxton Berrios
MIA
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149.
Tyquan Thornton
NE
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150.
Jake Bobo
SEA
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151.
Chase Claypool
MIA
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152.
Dyami Brown
WAS
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153.
Brandon Johnson
DEN
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154.
Ainias Smith
FA
Ainias Smith first burst onto the scene in 2020, posting a 27% dominator rating at just 19 years old while leading the Aggies in receiving yards in a pandemic-shortened season. He also carried the ball 49 times for 293 yards and 4 TDs as he also started at running back.
Smith sustained his success in his third season but got hurt in 2022. He was also arrested in the summer of 2022 for a DUI, possession of marijuana and unlawful carrying of a weapon. The charges were dropped. The 5-foot-9 and 190-pound WR bounced back in his final year in 2023, amassing a career-high 795 receiving yards on 53 catches with two TDs (15% dominator rating). His broken tackle per catch (2) ranked second in the 2024 WR class. He will turn 23 years old this year. Smith also has experience as a return specialist throughout his entire college career including last season. He had an 82-yard punt return TD in 2023. Led the SEC in punt return yards in 2023. If all the red flags are behind him, Smith's versatility will surely be attractive to NFL teams given his diverse skill set as a slot WR. Not the fastest guy by any means, but absolutely dynamic in the open field. One team that has met with Smith the most during the pre-draft process is the Philadelphia Eagles. |
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155.
Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint
FA
|
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156.
Trenton Irwin
CIN
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157.
Russell Gage
FA
|
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158.
Deonte Harty
BAL
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159.
Kyle Philips
TEN
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160.
Tahj Washington
FA
Tahj Washington caught 13 of his 15 deep targets in 2023 (87%). Perfect passer rating generated on deep targets from Caleb Williams.
Broke out at an early age in 2020 at Memphis while competing for targets with Calvin Austin III, before transferring to USC the last three seasons. 5-foot-10 and 174 pounds, he is definitely on the smaller side of this WR class. Posted his most productive season this past year, with over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs (23% dominator rating). Counting stats were not elite, but he was absurdly efficient. Exceptional route runner, slot player and useful after the catch. Second in the class in both YAC/reception and broken missed tackle per reception. |
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161.
Jamal Agnew
JAC
|
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162.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
SEA
|
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163.
Richie James Jr.
KC
|
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164.
Rakim Jarrett
TB
|
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165.
Emeka Egbuka
FA
|
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166.
Trent Sherfield
MIN
|
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167.
David Bell
CLE
|
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168.
Derius Davis
LAC
|
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169.
KhaDarel Hodge
ATL
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170.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DEN
|
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171.
Marvin Jones Jr.
FA
|
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172.
Tim Patrick
DEN
|
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173.
Xavier Gipson
NYJ
|
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174.
DeAndre Carter
LV
|
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175.
Samori Toure
GB
|
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176.
Kayshon Boutte
NE
|
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177.
Brandon Powell
MIN
|
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178.
Josh Crockett
FA
|
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179.
Ben Skowronek
LAR
|
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180.
Jalen Nailor
MIN
|
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181.
Jason Brownlee
NYJ
|
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182.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
ATL
|
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183.
Equanimeous St. Brown
NO
|
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184.
Jalen Guyton
LAC
|
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185.
Erik Ezukanma
MIA
|
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186.
Malik Heath
GB
|
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187.
Sterling Shepard
NYG
|
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188.
Randall Cobb
NYJ
|
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189.
Jamison Crowder
WAS
|
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190.
Marquise Goodwin
CLE
|
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191.
Jha'Quan Jackson
FA
|
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192.
Antoine Green
DET
|
|
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193.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL
|
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194.
Ashton Dulin
IND
|
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195.
Cornelius Johnson
FA
|
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196.
Dax Milne
WAS
|
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197.
Devin Duvernay
JAC
|
|
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198.
Bub Means
FA
|
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199.
Zach Pascal
ARI
|
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200.
Tim Jones
JAC
|
|
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201.
Jalen Brooks
DAL
|
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202.
Quez Watkins
PIT
|
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203.
Ronnie Bell
SF
|
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204.
Lynn Bowden Jr.
NO
|
|
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205.
Isaiah Williams
FA
|
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206.
Deven Thompkins
TB
|
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207.
Alex Erickson
LAC
|
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208.
Isaiah Williams
FA
|
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209.
Julio Jones
PHI
|
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|
210.
Jordan Whittington
FA
|
|
|
211.
Jalen Coker
FA
|
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212.
Scott Miller
ATL
|
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213.
David Moore
CAR
|
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214.
Jalen Reagor
NE
|
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215.
Justin Shorter
BUF
|
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216.
Byron Pringle
WAS
|
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217.
Robbie Chosen
MIA
|
|
218.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
CAR
|
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219.
River Cracraft
MIA
|
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220.
KJ Hamler
BUF
|
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221.
Velus Jones Jr.
CHI
|
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222.
Danny Gray
SF
|
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223.
D.J. Montgomery
IND
|
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224.
Keith Kirkwood
NO
|
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225.
Miles Boykin
NYG
|
|
226.
Grant DuBose
GB
|
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227.
Dareke Young
SEA
|
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228.
Trent Taylor
SF
|
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229.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
FA
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