Fantasy Football Player Notes
2025 Half PPR Draft Rankings
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1.
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
Chase was my WR1 heading into the 2024 draft season and he exceeded all expectations finishing as the WR1 overall while taking home the Triple Crown. 127 catches for over 1,700 yards and 17 TDs.
20 points per game in half-PPR, which was four points more per game than the next closest WR. He also led the NFL in red-zone targets which has been the clear signal for WR1 overall seasons. The past six No. 1 overall WRs finished first in the NFL in red-zone targets with Chase becoming the sixth to do so. The only major change for 2025 is that Tee Higgins will likely be gone. But the sample size of Chase without Higgins over the last three seasons is more elite WR1 production. All that matters is that he and Burrow stay healthy, as Chase attempts to be the first back-to-back WR1 finisher since Antonio Brown. |
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2.
Justin Jefferson
MIN
The All-Pro WR shut down any doubt that he could produce without Kirk Cousins in 2024, finishing as the fantasy WR2 overall and in points per game. He caught over 100 passes and surpassed 1,500 receiving yards tying a career-high with 10 touchdowns finishing first in end-zone targets. He tied Chase for the most WR1 weekly finishes (12).
It was his fourth time finishing inside the top 5 fantasy WRs. It should be noted that Jefferson's production did dip slightly after T.J. Hockenson returned to the lineup. It's very possible that with QB question marks in 2025, Jefferson's production (specifically TDs) could decline. But it would need to be an absolute implosion for the Vikings WR to fall outside the top 5 just based on his talent and deployment in the Kevin O'Connell offense. |
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3.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
Despite playing hurt and losing Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb gutted out 15 games en route to a WR8 finish and WR9 in points per game (14.2). He caught at least four passes in all but one game, marking his third straight season with 100-plus receptions.
Lamb played seven games with Prescott to start the season, in which he was generally effective, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game (18 expected fantasy points per game). Without Prescott, Lamb crawled to a WR12 finish from Weeks 9-16. Even so, Lamb is still the No. 1 guy in Dallas and flashed his elite ceiling before injuries derailed the Dallas offense. |
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4.
Puka Nacua
LAR
Puka got hurt in Week 1, forcing him to miss the next five games. But once he returned, he was a force.
The Rams WR1 finished fourth in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 8-18, he out scored all WRs not-named Ja'Marr Chase. He was 9th in red zone targets and led the NFL in target share at 31% (10-plus targets per game) through the postseason. His full 36% target rate per route run was the highest in the NFL among qualified WRs. The second-year WR led the NFL yards per route at 3.23. Only four other players have accomplished this feat of more than 3 yards per route run since 2017 - Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones and Nico Collins. With Cooper Kupp gone next season, Nacua is in a position to see a monster TD boost presuming Matthew Stafford is back under center in Los Angeles. |
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5.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown finished another stellar season as the WR3 overall through 17 weeks, averaging 15.4 points (also WR3) through the postseason.
The Sun God was No. 1 overall in red-zone receptions. But he overperformed his 14.6 expected points per game, which ranked 18th. Over the final seven games of the regular season, St. Brown's target share (27% to 23%) fell with both Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams heavily involved. That should be more of a concern next season, given Jamo's massive breakout. So, can St. Brown continue to thrive as a top-5 fantasy WR amid high target competition, especially after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson? |
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6.
Nico Collins
HOU
Nico Collins averaged 2.86 yards per route run in 2024, second among all WRs. He picked up right where he left off in 2023, finishing the season as the WR6 in points per game (14.9). He missed four games with an injury but was very effective on the field as C.J. Stroud's clear No.1 target.
Even when Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell were healthy, he was the alpha of the Texans' passing attack. With both guys potentially not playing for Houston in 2025, Collins will stay atop the 2025 WR fantasy football ranks. |
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7.
Brian Thomas Jr.
JAC
The rookie from Jacksonville finished as the WR4 overall and WR9 in points per game.
In the last seven games with Mac Jones as his QB... BTJ averaged over 18 half-PPR points per game, 19.5 expected fantasy points per game, a 31% target share, a 48% air yards share, and 96-plus receiving yards per game. Thomas pushed his total of games with 75-plus receiving yards to 11, the most such games by a rookie in the Super Bowl era. With new head coach Liam Coen and quarterback Trevor Lawrence leading the Jaguars offense next season, buckle up for BTJ WR1 szn part 2. |
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8.
Malik Nabers
NYG
The LSU product had a historic rookie season, finishing as WR7 overall and in points per game through 17 weeks (14.6).
He broke Puka Nacua's rookie WR record for receptions with 109 catches for over 1,200 yards and 7 TDs in just 15 games played. The usage in Brian Daboll's offense was unmatched. First in target share (32%), targets per game (11.1) and expected fantasy points per game (20.3). How he was able to produce at such a high level with bad QB play is a credit to his skill. Even so, quarterback concerns reared their ugly head at times, and that will stay a concern in 2025. Please fantasy football gods, let us have Jameis Winston to the Giants. |
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9.
A.J. Brown
PHI
A.J. Brown finished last year as the WR10 in points per game (14.1) and WR18 overall having missed 3.5 games with injuries.
AJB was the only WR to command over 50% of his team's total air yards ranking 1st in the NFL with a 51% air yards share. He also finished second with a 30% target share. His 46% top 12 weekly finisher rate was the second highest among all WRs to only Mike Evans. He had 5 100-yard games - tied for the most among all WRs through 17 games. The 28-year-old is still an elite WR, and he will benefit greatly if the Eagles' combination of ground game and defense experiences regression in 2025. |
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10.
Drake London
ATL
Drake London was a red-zone monster ending the season with 23 red-zone targets, tied for third-most among all WRs. He was also a target hog, with the third-highest target rate per route run (30%).
He has led all WRs in red-zone target rate over the past three seasons. Chase the red-zone targets with WRs. That has been one of the biggest predictors of high-end fantasy seasons at the position. Therefore, I will be very high-ranking and drafting London in 2025. 10 might be too low for the WR5 in total points through 18 games last season. The Falcons No. 1 WR was targeted on 41% of his routes run with Michael Penix under center. |
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11.
Tyreek Hill
MIA
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12.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA
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13.
Tee Higgins
CIN
Tee Higgins is expected to leave the Bengals in free agency going to the highest bidder after a dominant 2024 season. When healthy, the Bengals WR finished third in points per game (15.5) behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.
I'm sure a lot will be made of Higgins moving up from real-life WR2 to WR1 on a new team, and whether he is up for the challenge. But we have a five-game sample size of Higgins as the Bengals WR1 without Chase. 8.8 targets per 102 receiving yards and nearly 17 points per game. Alpha WR1 numbers, but well above expectation. Unless Higgins lands in the perfect spot, he might be overvalued in 2025 fantasy football. Losing Joe Burrow to almost any other QB will be a downgrade, and that could make it tougher for him to perform against lofty expectations. His expected output is much closer to high-end WR2 production - which is what he has been his entire NFL career. Not bad by any means. Higgins has a strong WR2 floor as he has failed to finish as such just once in the last four seasons. But don't let the shiny new toy effect let you forget about his constant injury struggles and downgrade at the QB position. The 26-year-old impending free agent has played in only 12 regular-season games in each of the last two years due to injuries. Higgins also basically missed three games in 2022. |
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14.
Ladd McConkey
LAC
The Chargers rookie led his draft class in yards per route run (2.6) and finished 13th in total points among WRs. But during the second half of the season, the Bolts WR surged.
He was WR10 from Weeks 8-17. Going through the postseason he posted a 25% target share and averaged nearly 99 receiving yards per game (second only to Ja'Marr Chase) averaging 16.4 points per game. With Justin Herbert and the same offensive coaching staff at the helm in 2025, we should expect nothing less than 100 catches from a healthy Ladd McConkey in 2025. |
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15.
Terry McLaurin
WAS
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16.
Mike Evans
TB
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17.
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
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18.
Davante Adams
LAR
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19.
DJ Moore
CHI
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20.
Rashee Rice
KC
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21.
Zay Flowers
BAL
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22.
Courtland Sutton
DEN
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23.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
ARI
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24.
DK Metcalf
PIT
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25.
Chris Olave
NO
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26.
Jameson Williams
DET
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27.
Jordan Addison
MIN
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28.
DeVonta Smith
PHI
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29.
Xavier Worthy
KC
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30.
George Pickens
PIT
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31.
Chris Godwin
TB
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32.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA
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33.
Jerry Jeudy
CLE
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34.
Rome Odunze
CHI
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35.
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
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36.
Calvin Ridley
TEN
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37.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WAS
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38.
Jayden Reed
GB
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39.
Khalil Shakir
BUF
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40.
Jakobi Meyers
LV
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41.
Jalen McMillan
TB
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42.
Cooper Kupp
SEA
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43.
Josh Downs
IND
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44.
Tetairoa McMillan
FA
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45.
Jauan Jennings
SF
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46.
Stefon Diggs
FA
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47.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND
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48.
Keenan Allen
FA
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49.
Ricky Pearsall
SF
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50.
Darnell Mooney
ATL
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51.
Luther Burden III
FA
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52.
Amari Cooper
FA
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53.
Rashid Shaheed
NO
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54.
Emeka Egbuka
FA
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55.
Keon Coleman
BUF
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56.
Christian Kirk
HOU
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57.
Quentin Johnston
LAC
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58.
DeAndre Hopkins
BAL
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59.
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN
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60.
Romeo Doubs
GB
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61.
Rashod Bateman
BAL
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62.
Marquise Brown
KC
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63.
Adam Thielen
CAR
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64.
Cedric Tillman
CLE
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65.
Matthew Golden
FA
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66.
Xavier Legette
CAR
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67.
Alec Pierce
IND
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68.
DeMario Douglas
NE
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69.
Jalen Coker
CAR
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70.
Adonai Mitchell
IND
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71.
Tre Harris
FA
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72.
Isaiah Bond
FA
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73.
Andrei Iosivas
CIN
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74.
Michael Wilson
ARI
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75.
Dontayvion Wicks
GB
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76.
Travis Hunter
FA
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77.
Diontae Johnson
FA
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78.
Joshua Palmer
BUF
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79.
Kayshon Boutte
NE
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80.
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG
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81.
Devaughn Vele
DEN
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82.
Brandin Cooks
FA
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83.
Xavier Restrepo
FA
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84.
Elijah Moore
FA
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85.
Gabe Davis
JAC
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86.
Darius Slayton
NYG
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87.
Elic Ayomanor
FA
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88.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
MIA
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89.
Tim Patrick
DET
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90.
Christian Watson
GB
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91.
Malik Washington
MIA
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92.
Mike Williams
LAC
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93.
Roman Wilson
PIT
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94.
Jalen Tolbert
DAL
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95.
Calvin Austin III
PIT
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96.
Tez Johnson
FA
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97.
Jalen Royals
FA
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98.
Tank Dell
HOU
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99.
Tyler Lockett
FA
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100.
Parker Washington
JAC
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101.
John Metchie III
HOU
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102.
Jermaine Burton
CIN
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103.
Tre Tucker
LV
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104.
Kyren Lacy
FA
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105.
Jalen Nailor
MIN
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106.
Luke McCaffrey
WAS
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107.
Evan Stewart
FA
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108.
Dyami Brown
JAC
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109.
Tory Horton
FA
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110.
Theo Wease
FA
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111.
Demarcus Robinson
SF
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112.
Antwane Wells Jr.
FA
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113.
Jaylin Noel
FA
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114.
Jayden Higgins
FA
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115.
Jack Bech
FA
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116.
Jordan Whittington
LAR
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117.
Savion Williams
FA
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118.
Javon Baker
NE
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119.
Nick Nash
FA
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120.
Ja'Lynn Polk
NE
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121.
Ricky White III
FA
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122.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
SEA
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123.
Tai Felton
FA
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124.
Tutu Atwell
LAR
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125.
Mack Hollins
NE
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126.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
ATL
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127.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL
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128.
Noah Brown
WAS
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129.
Deion Burks
FA
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130.
Curtis Samuel
BUF
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131.
Julian Fleming
FA
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132.
Jacob Cowing
SF
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133.
Troy Franklin
DEN
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134.
Pat Bryant
FA
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135.
Jacorey Brooks
FA
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136.
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU
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137.
Sterling Shepard
TB
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138.
Jahan Dotson
PHI
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139.
Kendrick Bourne
NE
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140.
Devontez Walker
BAL
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141.
Olamide Zaccheaus
CHI
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142.
Tyler Boyd
FA
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143.
Johnny Wilson
PHI
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144.
Jalin Hyatt
NYG
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145.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
KC
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146.
Allen Lazard
NYJ
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147.
Malachi Corley
NYJ
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148.
Treylon Burks
TEN
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149.
Trey Palmer
TB
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150.
Tyler Johnson
NYJ
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151.
Rakim Jarrett
TB
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152.
Ainias Smith
PHI
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153.
Jonathan Mingo
DAL
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154.
Kobe Hudson
FA
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155.
Bru McCoy
FA
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156.
Zakhari Franklin
FA
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157.
Kaden Prather
FA
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158.
Bo Melton
GB
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159.
Justin Watson
HOU
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160.
Van Jefferson
TEN
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161.
Xavier Gipson
NYJ
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162.
Skyy Moore
KC
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163.
DJ Chark Jr.
FA
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164.
Nelson Agholor
FA
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165.
K.J. Osborn
WAS
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166.
Bub Means
NO
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167.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
FA
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