We’re rolling right along with our positional tiers, as we tackle first base. Not literally, guys. Relax. I don’t even know how that would work, anyway.
First base used to be really easy. “Should I take the 40-homer guys? Or wait six rounds and take the 30-homer guys? Or wait another five rounds and take the 25-homer guys?”
But no longer. Oh sure, there are still plenty of elite power options, and you’ll see up to six first basemen being drafted in your first two rounds. But the drop-off comes quickly, and you need to have a good sense of where the dividing line comes between each tier.
So let’s dive into the first base landscape, and long for the days of yore, where elite players were aplenty, and you didn’t have to worry about spending an early pick on the position. Because those days are over.
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The Studs
Truthfully, Goldschmidt and Rizzo probably belong in their own tier, given their production and age. But, let’s not split hairs. These guys are the crème de la crème.
While Goldschmidt and Rizzo have next to no concerns, the other three have minor red flags. Cabrera will be 34 years old this season and had suffered through two slightly down seasons prior to last year’s resurgence. Encarnacion is also 34 years old, and though he remains an absolute power stud, he is leaving the Rogers Centre (.943 OPS at home, .834 on the road last season). And Votto may bury you in a head-to-head league if he again pretty much tanks the first half of the season (and, if you have read his comments, that may be intentional. Which is weird).
But, again, those minor criticisms are mostly just there because my editors will yell at me if I just wrote, “Those players are all good.” Because, really, that about sums it up. Those guys are studs and represent the elite.
The Very Solids
This group is tough, but in doing some drafts so far this season, I realize that I have roughly the same level of confidence in each of these players. Every one of them has the potential to provide you with elite production, but they all have something holding them back.
Davis has the elite power but is allergic to batting average. Myers and Ramirez both basically had just one incredible half of baseball last year after a few down years. And Abreu’s power has declined each season of his career, and he plays on a rebuilding team, which will likely continue to limit his runs scored and possibly RBIs.
Of all these guys, Freeman is the one who stands out, and should certainly be taken first of the group. But he took such a leap in power last year that I want to see it again to make sure it’s real before bumping him up to that next tier.
*Note: Daniel Murphy and Matt Carpenter would also fall into this tier, but, despite seeing it play out in some mock drafts, I just can’t imagine more than a handful of people will play either guy at first base. Second base is deep, sure, but still, hard to see it. And for that reason, I’m omitting guys like Buster Posey, Todd Frazier, Jonathan Lucroy, etc., from future tiers.
The Barely Startables
I’m giving these two their own tier because they’re the last of the guys that, at this point in the spring, I’d be willing to roll with as my starting first baseman. Santana nearly made it into the tier above but, like Freeman, I want to give him another year to see if the power gains are real. Plus, he basically maxes out at a .260 batting average.
As for Hosmer, he traded some batting average for power in 2016, but whichever way he goes (high average, lesser power or vice versa), he still provides useable stats. Plus, he’s still just entering his prime, so there’s a decent chance he manages to give you the best of both worlds.
The Last Line of Defense
These guys are all getting drafted in every league and you can feel comfortable with them as your corner infielder or utility player. But they are all either coming off injuries/injury prone, long in the tooth (that means old, guys – why be direct when you can use an obscure expression?) or just don’t have high enough ceilings to crack a higher tier.
Draft them. Start them. But, absent Pujols making a much quicker recovery from his surgery than currently projected or Belt getting traded, don’t rely on them as your starting first baseman.
Everyone Else
- Tommy Joseph
- C.J. Cron
- Chris Carter
- Greg Bird
- Josh Bell
- Justin Bour
- Brandon Moss
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Lucas Duda
- Joe Mauer
This list could go on forever, but I’m drawing the line somewhere. Each of these players can still provide you with useful stats, for sure. They’re fine guys to draft late and represent a nice mix of cheap power or major upside. But, again, if you’re relying on any of these guys to be a major part of your team, then something went wrong.
More Tiers
Catcher Rankings Tiers
Second Base Rankings Tiers
Shortstop Rankings Tiers
Third Base Rankings Tiers
Outfield Rankings Tiers
Starting Pitcher Rankings Tiers
Relief Pitcher Rankings Tiers
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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
