Welcome to the fifth edition of this weekly series where I’ll provide a list of players that could help impact categories in standard 5×5 leagues.
Previous editions were focused on potential pickups likely to be available in most leagues. But with the season beginning to take shape, this lists mixes in some player’s with 50%+ ownership rates who should be considered in shallow formats or who make for potential trade targets.
Be sure to check back every Thursday for a fresh list of potential contributors. Percentages represent each player’s ownership in Yahoo! Leagues.
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Batting Average
The career .295 hitter has carried his hot second half from 2016 into this year boasting a .326 batting average in the early goings. He won’t sustain a .380 BABIP, but shouldn’t struggle to settle in around his career mark of .347.
Peralta currently holds an average exit velocity of 92 MPH which places him in the company of Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton. He uses the entire field, doesn’t pop up, strikes out below a league average rate, and he’s even stolen three bases in four attempts.
When you consider he’s batting second in one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups, his ownership rate is still too low. He’s undoubtedly been scooped in deeper leagues, but if he’s available in 10 or 12 teamers, add him to hit .290 and upside across the board.
Home Runs
Like Peralta, Gallo is owned in more than half of Yahoo leagues. However, with Adrian Beltre’s eventual return, concerns surrounding Gallo’s playing time could arise present a buying opportunity. It’s difficult to see the Rangers taking Gallo’s bat out of the lineup with Mike Napoli struggling so badly. Between 1B and DH, Gallo has numerous paths to playing time.
His 15.8% swinging strike rate implies it will be difficult for him to improve much upon his 36.3% strikeout rate, but the power is living up to the hype. He currently barrels the ball 24% of the time — for context, Khris Davis led all qualified hitters last year at 18.5%.
Additionally, he’s unlikely to maintain a .238 BABIP with the sixth-best exit velocity (94.4 MPH) in baseball. It’s early, and he still possesses Russell Branyan downside. But the upside is that of a former Ranger prospect in Chris Davis. For that reason, Gallo needs to be checked on in all formats.
Runs
Michael Conforto (OF — NYM): 67%
Not even the Mets can screw this one up again. Conforto was jerked around last season but is playing himself into a full-time role, even when Lucas Duda returns to health. The former 10th overall pick has enjoyed inflated BABIP and HR/FB rates to the tune of a beastly .344/.421/.688 triple slash, but will still be an excellent player once regression sets in.
The batting average will fall back to the .260 range, but a .350 OBP is within reason, and that would lead to plenty of runs scored from the leadoff spot — especially given his ability to drive himself in with 20+ homers.
I figure Conforto for a mini-breakout in 2017 followed by a monstrous coming out party next year where he finally lives up to his prospect pedigree. His current ownership rate implies he’s less desirable than hitters like Adrian Gonzalez and Brad Miller. If you can acquire him at cost, take the money and run.
RBI
Taylor Motter (SS/OF — SEA): 23%
Here’s one for the deep leaguers. I’ll be 100% honest; I didn’t know who Motter was three weeks ago. Not a clue. But he’s put himself on the map with a power surge that probably factored into Leonys Martin’s release.
Motter’s approach at the plate is simple, be patient and wait for something to yank. His 22% chase rate is elite, and he has pulled the ball an astonishing 68% of the time! That is the highest pull rate in the history of baseball. Okay, I made that part up, but it is the highest rate in baseball this year and could actually be the highest ever.
His five homers are backed up by top 15 rates in exit velocity and batted ball distance, validating Motter as a legit slugger out the gate. Such a pull-heavy approach feels highly exploitable for opposing pitchers, but so far so good for the 27-year-old. Until scouts realize how to stymie his grip it and rip it approach, he’ll be a cheap provider of RBIs; playing time permitting.
Stolen Bases
Kevin Kiermaier (OF — TB): 22%
Strikeouts have crippled Kiermaier’s offensive production as he’s hitting just .200 a month into his fresh contract extension. While strikeouts are typically a skill-driven (or lack thereof) outcome, the underlying contributors to his inflated K-rate don’t sound the alarm for continued woes. His chase, contact, and swinging strike rates are all close enough to his career marks to insinuate regression is coming.
Despite his struggles, the Rays have stuck with him in the two-hole and his defense (and new contract) all but guarantee playing time. There’s no reason to veer from his pre-season projection as a 10/20 contributor, and it can be awfully difficult to find steals on the wire that aren’t one-trick ponies.
Wins
Jordan Montgomery (SP — NYY): 9%
The rookie southpaw has posted a pedestrian 4.15 ERA, and 23 punchouts over 21.2 innings pitched but flashed exciting upside. Montgomery features a five-pitch arsenal with all three secondary offerings rating as plus pitches.
He has fanned 25% of hitters so far, and the underlying metrics support a plus strikeout rate down the stretch. At 37%, Montgomery owns the second highest chase rate in baseball which has helped him to the fifth best swinging strike rate (15%).
The downer has been a 10.9% walk rate, but his plate discipline pitch metrics point toward a league average or better walk rate moving forward.
I’d like more groundballs from a Bronx starter, but the strikeouts should be there, along with a legitimate shot at a sub-4 ERA. The Yankees appear poised as a contender, and Montgomery is in line to grab a fair share of their victories.
Strikeouts
The 29-year-old’s Yahoo ownership rate doubled after his gem over the Rockies Tuesday night, but he’s still criminally under-owned at eight percent.
Trevor K-Hill has fanned 37 hitters over 30 innings posting his usual elite groundball rate (57%). Combined with a tick above league average walk rate, Cahill’s five starts have amounted to a 3.60 ERA and 1.17 WHIP — although his FIP and xFIP paint him as a sub-3 talent thus far.
To validate these skills, we need to see something different from the veteran owner of a career 4.04 ERA and 6.54 K/9; and we have. Cahill re-invented himself as a reliever and made some discernable changes as a Cub that he’s carried over into his re-emergence as a starter.
The driver of his newfound success is a filthy knuckle curve that he’s offering 25% of the time and acquiring whiffs at a 26% clip. Additionally, the introduction of a slider has him ultimately throwing breaking pitches on 34% of his deliveries, amounting to an elite 37% chase rate, and top-15 swinging strike rate.
I stuck my neck out on Danny Duffy two starts into 2016, and it paid major dividends. I’m doing the same with Cahill in 2017. If he can keep the walks remotely in check, he is a must-own.
ERA
Wheeler’s solid 2017 performance has been undone by a 64% strand rate driving his ERA up to 4.78 despite a 3.77 xFIP. He’s made drastic Zone% improvements (52.4%) that led to an acceptable 9% walk rate, and despite not getting batters to chase more frequently, he gets whiffs out of the zone with a top 20 O-Contact%.
Wheeler can strike out a batter per inning which would be dangerous as long as he can keep his walks near the league average mark of 8%. That mix, combined with a top-25 soft contact rate lays the foundation for a solid ERA contributor.
WHIP
While excessive long balls continue to plague the Angels right-hander, the pieces are in place for an under-the-radar WHIP contributor in deep or AL-only formats.
To begin with, Nolasco doesn’t give up anything for free. Don’t get me wrong, he probably should. His reluctance to issue free passes is likely a significant contributor to his home run woes. Nonetheless, he makes hitters hit their way on base as demonstrated by his 4.3% walk rate.
When the ball is in play, assuming it doesn’t land over the fence, he’s backed by an elite defense. The Halos ranked among the top five in Defensive Runs Saved last year, and that’s before improving their two weaknesses in left field and second base. Nolasco’s fly ball heavy profile will benefit greatly from the trio of Mike Trout, Cameron Maybin, and Kole Calhoun patrolling the spacious Anaheim outfield.
Nolasco’s current 1.24 WHIP is about what we can expect moving forward. It’s not elite, but if you’re digging for WHIP help in the 10%-owned range, you’ll take it.
Saves
Santiago Casilla (RP — OAK): 49%
The Oakland bullpen has been perceived as a ninth-inning committee which has suppressed Jairo Garcia’s, I mean, Calla’s ownership.
Casilla has tallied four of the six Oakland saves this season. Sean Doolittle (now on the DL with an ailing shoulder) grabbed a save back on April 10th when this truly was a committee. The other belongs to Ryan Madson who closed a 4-3 victory over Seattle on April 22nd. It’s worth noting that Casilla had pitched on April 20th and 21st which explains why he was seemingly unavailable to nail that victory down.
The A’s have only won one game since Madson’s cameo in the ninth inning — a win at Houston on April 29th closed out by Casilla.
He hasn’t been very impressive with a 7.20 K/9, and if his ERA (3.60) catches up to his xFIP (4.29), he won’t be in the ninth inning for long. But if you need saves right now, Casilla currently owns this job.
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Chris Bragg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.
