Player movement and personnel changes is the norm in the NFL’s offseason, and it’s why many pundits (wisely) put little to no stock in strength of schedule — at least merely treating last year’s results as gospel for 2017 strength of schedule. Anyway, these changes have a huge impact on the fantasy value of various players, and this series will look at the risers and fallers in fantasy value as a result of changing teams in the off-season via free agency or trade. I’m going to kick things off by looking at tight ends.
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Risers
Dwayne Allen (NEP): From Colts to Patriots
Allen was dealt from the Colts to the Patriots, and he’ll serve as New England’s number two tight end behind Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots are no strangers to producing two fantasy relevant tight ends annually. Gronk is in a class of his own and the best tight end in the game, but Aaron Hernandez and Martellus Bennett have demonstrated the offense can support two tight ends posting fantasy-friendly statistics.
Allen spent five seasons with the Colts and set highs in starts (16), targets (66), receptions (45), and receiving yards (521) in his rookie season in 2012. He eclipsed 400 yards receiving just one other time in his tenure with the Colts totaling 406 yards receiving last year. His production overall was a bit disappointing for a guy the Colts popped with the first pick in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft. One area Allen shined, though, was finding pay dirt. Allen reeled in 19 touchdown receptions in 57 games played. The 27-year-old’s nose for the end zone will play well in New England.
Last year, Bennett led the Patriots in touchdown receptions with seven, and Gronk caught three more in eight games, accounting for a combined total of 10 of 32 touchdown receptions for New England in 2016. In 2015, Gronk led the team in touchdown grabs with 11 while backup Scott Chandler reeled in four. Their combined total of 15 touchdown receptions accounted for 41.6% of the team’s touchdown receptions that season. At the least, Allen makes for a touchdown or bust dice roll week to week in 2017. There’s upside for more, though.
Allen’s 406 receiving yards last year were undoubtedly yawn inducing, but Football Outsiders (FO) ranked his 108 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) as the 10th most among tight ends, and Allen’s 406 yards receiving fell well short of his 548 effective yards (EYds), indicating he was more effective than his standard yardage output would indicate. Tyler Loechner of Pro Football Focus (PFF) pegged Allen as a fringe TE1, and I’m inclined to agree. As great as Gronk is, it’s impossible to look past his injury history. Yes, he did play in 30 of 32 games in the 2014 and 2015 seasons combined, but he played in just seven games in 2013 and eight last year. In the event Gronk misses a few games this year, Allen’s value skyrockets moving up the depth chart to TE1. Allen’s value is up in his new home.
Julius Thomas (MIA): From Jaguars to Dolphins
Thomas’ stay in Jacksonville was an unmitigated failure. He played in only 21 of 32 games in his two years with the Jaguars, and his dynamic field-stretching ability resulted in just 9.7 yards per reception. I suppose his nine touchdown grabs make it something less than a total disaster, but Jacksonville’s brass envisioned more than 35.0 yards receiving per game when they inked him to a five-year deal that included a $24 million guaranteed prior to the 2015 season. In addition to dealing with poor health, Thomas also was saddled with receiving passes from one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL by standard or advanced measures. A change of scenery almost anywhere other than Jacksonville would have netted Thomas a value bump — even if only a modest one.
He landed in an intriguing place when the Dolphins acquired him for a seventh-round pick. The 28-year-old tight end is reunited with Adam Gase. Miami’s head coach was Thomas’ offensive coordinator in Denver during a two-year stretch in 2013-2014 in which Thomas caught 108 passes for 1,277 yards receiving with 24 touchdowns in 27 games. As Tyler Loechner of PFF cautions, Thomas didn’t just benefit from playing with Gase as his offensive coordinator, he also got a lift from Peyton Manning tossing passes his way. Ryan Tannehill isn’t Peyton Manning. Tannehill does offer an upgrade from Bortles, though.
The off-season hype is in full effect with Dolphins offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen saying “if Julius Thomas is healthy and we catch some breaks, he can be and has been a 10-touchdown guy,” per James Walker’s article at ESPN. As Walker’s article points out and Loechner’s previously linked one does as well, the Dolphins have mouths to feed in their offense that are ahead of Thomas in the pecking order such as Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry, and both DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills could be ahead of Thomas in the touches pecking order, too. Still, Thomas was quite productive in his last two years in Denver, and his stellar PFF grades that Leo Hellman discussed for PFF were probably not entirely the product of playing with Manning. Loechner concludes Thomas is a viable tight end streaming option who doesn’t need to be drafted, but I’m more optimistic and think he’s a low-end TE1 with a touch of upside. He’s not tied to Tom Terrific and the high-octane Patriots offense like Allen is, but Ajayi, Landry, Parker, and Stills provide less resistance to a high-upside role than Gronk, Julian Edelman, and a host of others in New England’s offense provide Allen. Both Thomas and Allen are fringe TE1 targets who should be drafted for their red-zone prowess, but Thomas appears to have more upside in the yardage and receptions departments.
Martellus Bennett (GBP): From Patriots to Packers
It’s not often you can go from catching passes from Brady to elsewhere and have it be a lateral move in terms of quarterback talent. Well, Bennett’s done just that joining Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. The 30-year-old tight end goes from the third highest scoring offense to the fourth highest scoring offense in 2016, once again a lateral move. Bennett’s stock is undoubtedly higher this year than it was a this point last year, though.
Bennett moves out of Gronk’s shadow to the top of Green Bay’s tight end depth chart. Green Bay’s tight ends Jared Cook, Richard Rodgers, and Justin Perillo were targeted 103 times and caught 64 passes for 683 yards receiving and three touchdowns in 2016. Cook played in only 10 regular season games, but his postseason performance (18 receptions on 32 targets for 229 yards receiving and two touchdowns in three games) showcases what a tight end is capable of doing in a Rodgers-led offense. Prior to Cook’s one-year stint with the Packers, Green Bay’s tight end position was a waste land for receiving talent since Jermichael Finley last played six games in 2013. For those who don’t remember, Finley was a rather productive player in Green Bay’s offense as you can see here.
Bennett is the best tight end Green Bay has employed since Finley. He bounced back from a disappointing 2015 season with the Bears, and he’s bested 700 yards receiving in three of his last four years and eclipsed 600 in four of his last five. He’s also caught at least five touchdown passes in four of his last five seasons. Bennett has proven reliable from a health standpoint playing in all 16 regular season games in four of the last five years and six times in nine seasons in the NFL. His season low for games played is 11 in 2015.
Getting back to last year, Bennett ranked third in DYAR (200), third in DVOA among qualified tight ends, and he sported a 143 yard gap between his actual yards (695, per FO) and EYds (838). Beyond the advanced metrics, Bennett also shined in standard statistical measures ranking tied for third at the position with seven touchdown grabs, 14th in receptions (55 on just 73 targets), and ninth in receiving yards (701). Bennett’s an easy top-10 tight end, and while I agree with the ECR placing him in the Tier 3 group of tight ends, I’d shoot him up to the top of that group and draft him behind only Gronk, Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, and Greg Olsen.
Faller
Jared Cook (OAK): From Packers to Raiders
It’s been all risers among the off-season movers at tight end highlighted thus far. Cook is the lone faller in this quartet. The athletically gifted tight end flashed his upside balling out in the postseason, but his underwhelming regular season can’t be completely overlooked. He ranked 33rd in DYAR (-16, no, that’s not a typo) and 31st in DVOA (-11.7%). FO’s Catch Rate doesn’t include drops, but it represents the percentage of completed passes on targets of that particular receiver. Cook’s catch rate was just 59%, and only 10 of 46 qualified tight ends had a sub-60% catch rate.
Furthermore, for all of the love Derek Carr has earned as a talented passer, he’s not Rodgers. Thus, he’s downgrading at quarterback. Cook will be at best the third option in Oakland’s passing attack behind Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, The team may also choose to shield its defense from the field by running more if Marshawn Lynch shows he has anything left in the tank after sitting out all last season. Cook’s ability to post the occasional big game makes him a solid best-ball format target, but he’s a backup option in standard leagues after being a popular sleeper entering last draft season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
