Without fail, at least four of the ADP top-10 running backs completely bust or significantly underperform nearly every season. These are the guys you vow to never, ever draft again only to see them bounce back the next year for somebody else’s fantasy team. This happens because fantasy football exists to make you miserable. There really isn’t any other explanation.
In standard leagues last season, Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, Jamaal Charles, and Adrian Peterson were the primary culprits among your highly-drafted running back busts. In 2015, it was way more brutal (hence the wide receiver-heavy approach many fantasy owners took in 2016). It would be way easier to say that Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte were the only two to live up to expectations, but I’ll list out the eight who busted or underperformed as well (Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Hill, and C.J. Anderson). In 2014, your RB busts were Montee Ball, AP, Doug Martin, and Gio Bernard.
Having a guaranteed 40% chance of picking a bust/underperformer with my first- or second-round selection doesn’t exactly give me great confidence on draft day, but it does give me a bit more confidence when trying to write an article predicting which top-10 RBs you should avoid this season.
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Jay Ajayi (MIA): ADP 16 (RB9)
A lot of Ajayi’s production during his breakout 2016 came in his three 200-plus yard rushing games, two of which came against Buffalo. Ajayi struggled against pretty much any defense not situated near the bottom of the league in rush defense. He was heavily reliant on the big run as 23% of his total rushing yards came on seven individual runs according to Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com.
Ajayi ranked 5th in % of total ydg via yards "above successful" (YAS).
23% of his total production came on just 2.5% of total runs (7 runs).— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2017
Ajayi also has major injury concerns as he battled shoulder and rib issues last season, and he has long-term knee concerns. He really struggled as the Dolphins offensive line broke down due to injuries and poor play. This year they’ll be starting one of the worst guards in the league last season, 33-year-old Jermon Bushrod, as well as ineffective journeyman Ted Larsen opposite him. There’s also the uncertainty surrounding center Mike Pouncey’s hip issues although he’s expected back for Week 1 barring any setbacks. Rotoworld’s Evan Silva used the words “reminiscent of Jeremy Hill‘s 2014” when describing Ajayi’s 2016 season which are words I prefer not to have in my head when drafting anybody.
Devonta Freeman (ATL): ADP 11 (RB6)
Many were expecting Freeman to bust last season, but he did anything but that on the juggernaut Falcons offense. I’m not too high on any Falcons this season. I don’t think what they accomplished in 2016 is repeatable, and I believe that a Super Bowl letdown is in the works. Freeman is actually the only RB to exceed 1,000 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons, but the loss of OC Kyle Shanahan to San Francisco is a concern for the offense as a whole. The fantasy community was much too low on Freeman after his No. 1 overall RB season in 2015, but he’s viewed as a sure-fire first rounder this season. Freeman has one of the more difficult projected schedules for running backs, and the “contract year” motivation for Freeman may vanish as he’s reportedly close on an extension with the Falcons.
Melvin Gordon (LAC): ADP 9 (RB5)
Nobody wanted anything to do with Gordon last season, and now everyone wants something to do with Gordon. That’s generally not something I like in fantasy. Gordon didn’t quite crack 1,000 yards as he went down with a season-ending injury in Week 13 which destroyed many fantasy owner’s playoff hopes. There’s no doubt he’s going to be the bell-cow back for the now L.A. Chargers, but Gordon hasn’t exactly proven to be the most durable of backs. It will be interesting to see how he responds to his 254-carry season in 2016. Gordon was also heavily reliant on the touchdown (he had 12 in 14 games) which tends to be the most inconsistent stat in fantasy football. Some would say he was due to find the end zone as he failed to find it even once in 14 games during his rookie season. Gordon isn’t particularly elusive (24th out of 53 RBs in PFFs Elusive rating) nor does he make much happen after contact (30th in yards after contact per attempt). The 3.9 yards per carry average he had in 2016 isn’t particularly encouraging for a guy that you will need to take in the mid-to-late first round if you want him.
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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.
