We are now officially half the way to the fantasy playoffs. Crazy, right? I mean, it seems like just yesterday we were talking about which players you should be drafting. If you’re sitting at 1-5 or 2-4, my advice to you would be not to panic. I have a story to tell about the fantasy player that I used to be.
It was about five years ago, when my fantasy team started the season 1-6 and most left me for dead. I had traded players every single week, trying to improve my team (which I did), only to see the players I traded away blow up the following week on someone else’s team. It was one of those classic situations where I was No. 2 in points, but just had the wrong opponents every single week. It got to the point where after looking at my team, I had zero disappointments, nobody I wanted to trade, and decided that I wouldn’t make another trade unless it was absolutely necessary.
You know how this situation plays out, right? I won every game the remainder of that season, playoffs included. After looking back at my championship team, there were just two players from the original team I’d drafted. The moral of this story is that you have to adapt to what’s happening, but that there are sometimes there’s nothing you can do. If you have a team that you’re happy with, don’t feel the pressure to trade away players. Look at their upcoming schedule and it you have a wide receiver about to play Patrick Peterson and Jalen Ramsey, you may want to trade him away for 90 cents on the dollar, because you need contributors now. It all starts in Week 7, so let’s discuss what is most likely to take place.
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If this is your first time reading The Primer, I want to give you an idea as to what you should expect. Knowledge, facts, stats, numbers… lots of numbers. The idea is to give you so much knowledge that you’ll feel better than ever when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button. The Primer will be here for you every single week of the NFL season, where we’ll dive into every game, talking about every fantasy relevant player. Once done reading it each week, you should have a better idea as to how the game should go, as well as an idea as to who you should be playing in season-long and who to target in DFS. All games are in order of the time they are taking place, with the Thursday game first and Monday night game last.
*Keep in mind that the game lines and totals may change as the games approach. All of my up-to-date rankings can be found right here.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings
Total: 39.5
Line: MIN by 5.0
It’s gotten to the point where I don’t know if anyone knows who the Ravens truly are. Their franchise is in a tough spot, as Joe Flacco has been as bad as anyone through the first six weeks, though he’s perceived to be a franchise quarterback. They are lacking talent all over the field, but have wins over the Bengals and Raiders. Meanwhile, the Vikings are without Sam Bradford for maybe the rest of the season, but sit at 4-2 after six weeks. The Ravens are likely to get back DT Brandon Williams this week, which is massive for their run defense, as they’ve really struggled without him. The Vikings will hope to get Stefon Diggs back, but may be without their best linebacker Anthony Barr, who suffered a concussion in the win over the Packers. Stay tuned to the weekly rankings, as these players have a massive effect on projections.
QBs: As mentioned in the intro paragraph, it’s got to be tough for the Ravens right now considering Joe Flacco‘s continued struggles. He’s now averaged less than 5.0 yards per attempt in three of his last four games and has thrown just one touchdown in those four games. Meanwhile, the Vikings have now held three straight quarterbacks to less than 10.0 fantasy points and 210 passing yards. Flacco is not an option on the road in this tough matchup. The Ravens are just as tough against the pass, allowing just one quarterback to score more than 11.9 fantasy points and that was Blake Bortles while in London. Outside of one game against a Bucs team that was missing essentially half their starters, Case Keenum has not thrown for more than 239 yards or one touchdown. Stay away from quarterbacks in this game.
RBs: It was supposed to be a week that we could trust Javorius Allen. It was the second time that we’d felt that way, with the other being the game against the Jaguars in London. In those two games combined, Allen has combined for 18 carries, eight receptions, and 94 scoreless yards. You will never feel comfortable putting him into your lineup, though it would help if Terrance West is ruled out again. The Vikings have yet to allow an opposing team to run for more than 3.6 yards per carry, so it’s not going to make much of a difference how many carries Allen gets this week. The Vikings have allowed just one receiving touchdown to a running back and it came on a fake punt to Benny Cunningham in Week 5. Outside of that, they’ve allowed just 26 receiving yards to running backs over the last three weeks. Allen is nothing more than a RB3 this week, who gets a slight boost if Barr is forced to miss this game. Alex Collins has run well in his opportunities, but he doesn’t do much in the passing game, limiting his usage to positive game-script. He’s now seen increased carries in every week since joining the team, topping out at 15 in Week 6 against the Bears, though he’s yet to score. The Vikings have allowed just one rushing touchdown on the season, making you feel uneasy starting someone who doesn’t contribute in the passing game, making him just a RB4/flex-option this week. After demolishing a weak Bears defense, we wanted to see Jerick McKinnon get it done against another formidable opponent. While I don’t know if I’d consider the Packers that, McKinnon got it done against them last week and now has 16 carries and six targets in each of the last two games. There is one issue, however. He’s now fumbled in three straight games and has lost two of them. Veteran coaches typically don’t stand for that, so he needs to get this right. Coming into 2017, McKinnon had never fumbled in his first three NFL seasons. It’s a concern for sure, as is the matchup with the Ravens run defense. Most will see that the Ravens have been gouged against the run recently and that coincided with the loss of DT Brandon Williams. He’s hinted that he’ll return this week, making McKinnon a risky start as anything more than a RB2/3 option. Still, it’s hard to sit someone who has averaged 22.5 touches since Dalvin Cook went down. Latavius Murray has seen his role grow the last few weeks, totaling 15 touches per game himself. He hasn’t done nearly as much with his touches, making him nothing more than a desperation RB4/5 option in a tough matchup.
WRs: The Ravens surprised everyone last week, announcing that Jeremy Maclin would miss the game with his shoulder injury. It came down to gametime, making it seem like he’ll be available for this week’s game against the Vikings. It doesn’t change much, though, because you don’t want to play him against this secondary anyway. They have yet to allow a top-10 wide receiver this season and have allowed just one to finish inside the top-20 in any given week. Terence Newman has been locking down the slot for them and while he’s aging, he’s an above average defender. Mike Wallace will likely see a lot of Xavier Rhodes, making him unplayable as well. You should just find alternative options to play in Week 7, as Maclin is just a WR5 and Wallace is a low-upside WR5/6. Breshad Perriman is in the concussion protocol and may not play, but he’s not worth fantasy consideration regardless. Even if Stefon Diggs suits up for this game, it’s hard to love him against the Ravens top cornerback Jimmy Smith. They haven’t used him in shadow situations this year, but they have Brandon Carr on the other side of the field, a seasoned veteran. Under Keenum, Diggs has totaled 28 targets, 16 receptions, 302 yards, and two touchdowns in four games, though it’s important to know that 8/173/2 came in one game. Even if he suits up, consider him a risky WR3. Adam Thielen is the only wide receiver in the NFL who has at least five catches in every game, though he’s yet to find the end zone. He’s got a solid matchup this week, as the Ravens have trusted Ladarius Webb to defend slot receivers and it hasn’t gone well, as Rashard Higgins posted 7/95/0, Allen Hurns had 3/20/1, and JuJu Smith-Schuster had 3/47/1 against them. Considering we know the catches are going to come regardless, it may be a good game for him to get his first touchdown. Thielen is a solid WR3 play. Laquon Treadwell made some solid plays in Week 6 against the Packers, but his matchup on the perimeter isn’t good enough to warrant consideration.
TEs: As expected with Flacco’s inconsistent play, Ben Watson is far from an every-week starter in fantasy leagues. He’s seen a healthy 30 targets through six weeks, but has totaled more than 43 yards just one time. The Vikings have allowed just one tight end to total more than 39 yards, however they have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three of their six games. With Maclin out last week, Watson saw a season-high eight targets, so he should at least be monitored in the TE2 discussion. The issue is that he’s not safe enough to use in cash DFS lineups, but probably doesn’t have the upside to help you in a tournament. If Maclin is out again, consider Watson a high-end TE2 against the Vikings who would also get a bump if Barr is ruled out. Kyle Rudolph has now seen nine targets in back-to-back games, which is not coincidental that it’s when Diggs has missed time. Similar to last year, when Diggs was either out or not full healthy, Rudolph saw massive target totals. Opposing tight ends haven’t seen many targets against the Ravens, but of the ones they have, they’ve done a lot of damage. On 30 targets to tight ends, the Ravens have allowed 21/262/6, which amounts to a 136.4 QB Rating. Rudolph is back into the must-start TE1 conversation, especially while Diggs is out or limited.
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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Total: 47.5
Line: NO by 4.0
This just isn’t quite the game we’d hoped it would be. No matter what team you’re a fan of, we all lost chances to witness greatness when Aaron Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone last week. Meanwhile, the Saints almost blew a 45-14 lead over the Lions. It’s pretty clear we know who the Saints are, but not many know what to expect from the Brett Hundley-led Packers team. Oddsmakers feel that it’ll significantly hamper their ability, as they are four-point underdogs while at home. The Packers just got offensive lineman Bryan Bulaga back in Week 6, but he had to leave due to a concussion. It’s a real possibility that they’ll be without three starting offensive lineman for this game. They also lost cornerback Quinten Rollins to an Achilles injury. He wasn’t playing well, but the fact that he was playing says a lot. The Packers should get second-round pick Kevin King back from his concussion this week, but this is certainly not the Packers team you’re used to seeing. The Saints got back their left tackle and starting slot receiver last week, and we saw the results of that against the Lions.
QBs: How do you not love Drew Brees in this game? Oh yeah, it’s an outdoor game on the road. Oddly enough, the Packers have allowed just one quarterback to finish inside the top-12 in any week and that was against Dak Prescott, one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL. Part of the reason, though, is that just two teams have thrown the ball more than 33 times against them, which is large in part to the way the Packers offense was able to sustain drives, essentially hiding what is a bad defense. The Brees on the road narrative doesn’t hold too much water, as he’s been solid on the road, just not as dominant as he’s been at home. He’s a rock-solid QB1 in this contest, though we need the Packers to put up a fight if we want him to post his usual video game numbers. Brett Hundley has thrown exactly 44 passes in his NFL career and of those passes, just 21 found their intended targets for just 174 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. That’s… not great, Bob. The Saints aren’t the best defense in the world, but the addition of Marshon Lattimore has helped a lot. They have either allowed three or zero passing touchdowns in each of their five games. You aren’t going to start Hundley this week if you can help it, though he does offer some sort of a floor with his legs.
RBs: It was the week Mark Ingram owners were waiting for when the running back totaled a season-high 30 touches for 150 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions. He also played a season-high 66 percent of the snaps with Adrian Peterson off to the Cardinals. Your opportunity to buy him at a discount has officially been slam shut. The Packers had been decent against the run this year despite missing DT Mike Daniels for a few weeks and playing against Devonta Freeman, Joe Mixon, Jordan Howard, and Ezekiel Elliott, while allowing just 97.4 fantasy points in the first five games to running backs. Now part of that success came from the fact that their opponents were only averaging 62 plays per game with Aaron Rodgers holding down sustained drives. They won’t have that opportunity anymore, so don’t be shy about starting Ingram as a strong RB2 in this game. In fact, Alvin Kamara can also be used as an RB2/RB3 option in both standard and PPR formats, as the Packers have allowed seven touchdowns (4 rushing, 3 receiving) to running backs in the last five games, including seven top-25 PPR performances. The Packers got Ty Montgomery back in Week 6, but it didn’t help matters for fantasy owners. Now staring at a potentially bottom-10 scoring offense without Rodgers, Montgomery has lost a lot of his appeal. The Saints have held three of the last four teams they’ve played to 3.7 or less yards per carry and haven’t allowed a team of running backs more than 97 yards since back in Week 1 when Dalvin Cook tagged them for 127 yards himself. In fact, if you were to go back to 2016, the Saints have surprisingly only allowed two running backs to run for more than 85 yards against them (Cook, Devonta Freeman 2x). The snaps in Week 6 favored Aaron Jones (43 to 20), but that was likely due to Montgomery being eased back in. Still, you cannot trust Montgomery as anything more than an RB3 right now. Jones himself didn’t look as good without Rodgers under center and it’ll really hurt if Bulaga misses this game. Expect the snaps to flip in Montgomery’s favor this week, making Jones just a desperation RB4 in season-long leagues.
WRs: After seeing the Saints score 52 points in Week 6, you’d probably assume that Michael Thomas had a solid game, right? His three-catch, 11-yard performance was the worst of his career to this point, though you should double down in DFS. It was the first game in Thomas’ young career where he’s totaled less than 40 yards. The Packers may get Kevin King back from his concussion, but we’re talking about a team that’s allowed six wide receivers to eclipse 15.0 PPR points over their last five games. Thomas will see a mixture of Josh Hawkins, Damarious Randall, and King, which isn’t enough to scare me off a mediocre wide receiver, let alone one of Thomas’ talent level. He’s an elite WR1 this week and one that I would call a must-play. Ted Ginn actually had his best game with Willie Snead back in the lineup, though it had a lot to do with the matchup. He’s continually a boom-or-bust WR4-type option who will be better on turf. Snead himself played just 21 snaps in his return, while Brandon Coleman played 26 snaps. You’ll see him get increased usage as the weeks go on, but trusting him as anything more than a WR4 would be a mistake in season-long leagues. His matchup in the slot is among the best on the field, so maybe take a shot on him in some tournament lineups. There isn’t a wide receiver in the world who wouldn’t feel the hit going from Aaron Rodgers to Brett Hundley and Jordy Nelson is no different. He and Rodgers had a connection that was developed over time, while Hundley has had a hard-enough time just completing passes in general. Nelson will likely see the most of Lattimore, making him just a WR2 until we see some connection with Hundley. Adams did catch a touchdown from Hundley last week, but it was on somewhat of a freelance play where they found a hole in the zone and Adams was surprised to turn around at the five-yard-line and see no defender. It’s hard to see him being anything more than a WR3-type option without Rodgers, as he’s someone who relied more heavily on touchdowns than anyone. He’s still yet to have a 1,000-yard season. Randall Cobb is another player who benefitted from the touchdowns that Rodgers would throw, as he’s got just one 1,000-yard season on his resume. His shorter average depth of target would be the least effected by the change at quarterback, but in an offense that’s unlikely to average more than 17-20 points per game, you can’t have three producers. Cobb is just a WR4 going forward and one you should trade away if you can get anything worthwhile.
TEs: After totaling 54 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, Coby Fleener has fallen off the face of the earth. Okay, maybe that’s a bit much. But seriously, he’s totaled just 10 targets over their last four games, turning them into six catches for 75 yards and one touchdown. After looking at the box score this week, you could have missed him, as he had just one target and no production. With Snead’s role growing, it’s hard to see this changing. On top of that, the Packers have not allowed a single top-12 tight end performance against them this year. He’s reaching Eric Ebron territory where we only want to play them in a pinch. I finally get the excuse I’ve been looking for to bench Martellus Bennett. After waiting for him to get on the same page and produce with Aaron Rodgers, it’s fair to say that he’s been a bust. He ranks No. 6 in targets among tight ends, but 13th in yards, 21st in fantasy points, and he’s still yet to score a touchdown. The Saints aren’t a team that defends tight ends particularly well, but as with all the Packers pass-catchers, it’s best to wait and see how this offense operates without Rodgers. Bennett should be on fantasy benches if possible.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Total: 38.5
Line: MIA by 3.5
Despite Jay Cutler‘s and Jay Ajayi‘s struggles this year, the Dolphins now sit at 3-2 on the year. What in the world is happening? Their opponent wasn’t expected to win a game this year, but here we are, as they sit at 3-3 and just played a close game against the Patriots. It’s going to be clear that nobody really knows who is going to win this game, but the Jets did beat them back in Week 3, which is really all we have to go off right now. The Jets should get Bilal Powell back for this game and are relatively healthy, while the Dolphins should be getting back DeVante Parker from his ankle injury that caused him to miss Week 6. The big injury to pay attention to, however, is the one to Dolphins center Mike Pouncey, as he was forced to leave the game against the Falcons with a concussion. He’s the glue that holds together what is a very bad offensive line and it’d be a downgrade for the entire offense if he were to miss this game.
QBs: This is the first time we get to talk about a matchup that we’ve already seen before, as Josh McCown played against the Dolphins while at home in Week 3 where he completed 18-of-23 passes for 249 yards and one touchdown. It was a solid performance against a defense that’s still yet to allow more than 20 points to any opponent. That’s obviously not great when projecting a quarterback on the road, leaving McCown as just a low-end QB2 option. The Dolphins have allowed at least one passing touchdown in each one of their games, which is why there’s hope for a floor in 2QB leagues, but you can do better than him as a streamer in standard leagues. Jay Cutler has now thrown for less than 170 yards in three straight games and has failed to score more than 13 fantasy points in any of his five contests this year, including his 11.7-point performance against the Jets the last time they played. It’s fair to say the Jets are a better defense than we initially thought they’d be, as there’s been just one team to score more than 24 points against them this year. Cutler is not on the streaming radar and would get downgraded even more if Pouncey were to miss this game.
RBs: The Jets running back situation is gross once again, as they simply do not want to give one of the running backs the majority of the workload, no matter who it is. Just twice have they given more than 11 carries to any running back and it was Bilal Powell in both situations, though one of them came when Matt Forte was out with his toe injury. There have also been just two situations where a running back has totaled more than 53 rushing yards and both of those performances came in one game against the Jaguars. Going against the Dolphins, you really don’t want to trust any of them. The Dolphins have yet to allow more than 100 yards to an entire team on the ground, so trying to distribute that throughout three running backs, it gets ugly. It’s clearly a situation to avoid in DFS. I said last week that Jay Ajayi has been awful in games the Dolphins have lost over the last year and a half, but it seemed that theory wasn’t going to be true last week when he was stomping Atlanta for 130 yards. Of course we know the Dolphins won, so the theory remains strong. Oddsmakers have the Dolphins favored in this game, so Ajayi has the looks of someone we should trust. The only thing preventing me from fully committing is not knowing if Pouncey is available, as that would change a lot. Most will be worried to start Ajayi against a Jets team that held him to 16 yards on 11 carries back in Week 3, but that’s also when his knee was giving him problems. He’s now gotten 51 carries over the last two weeks, pretty much erasing that concern as we head into this game. If Pouncey is in the lineup, plug-and-play Ajayi as a low-end RB1 who should find the end zone.
WRs: The targets among Jets wide receivers through six weeks looks like this: Robby Anderson 41, Jermaine Kearse 32, Jeremy Kerley 20. It’s interesting to see that McCown has completed 45-of-52 targets to Kearse and Kerley, but just 18-of-41 to Anderson. The average air yards to Anderson is easily the highest on the team at 14.3 yards, but it’s quite the difference in efficiency. Because of that, Anderson remains the highest-upside option in this offense, though his production will be sporadic. Kearse has seen just three or four targets in three of the last four games, which is why he’s totaled 42 or less yards in three of those games. Anderson connected on a bomb against the Dolphins last time they played and finished with 3/95/1, while Kearse was at 3/42/0. Consider Kearse a boring WR5 while Anderson is a boom-or-bust WR4. Kerley isn’t seeing enough targets to be considered, even though he’s catching everything thrown his way. If DeVante Parker returns for this game, he’ll be in shadow coverage with Morris Claiborne. He was the last time they played as well where he finished with 8/76/1, though the touchdown came on the final play of the game in what should be considered garbage time. He’s also going to be coming off an ankle injury that caused him to miss last week’s game (if he plays at all), so it’s important for you to know that he’s not an auto-start in this game. Consider him a risk-reward WR3 who can be benched for safer options. Jarvis Landry is now up to 57 targets after five games, so it shouldn’t surprise you to know that he’s seen at least 10 targets in four different games. He’s somehow failed to top 78 yards on all those targets, but he’s now scored in the last two games while Parker has been sidelined. His matchup with Buster Skrine is the best on the field, making him a solid low-end WR2 in PPR formats and a decent WR3 in standard formats. Skrine is somewhat of an all-or-nothing cornerback who will get punished if he misses a pass-breakup. The 152 yards he has allowed after the catch rank as the third-most in the league. Kenny Stills should see nothing but Darryl Roberts in coverage, who is a former seventh-round pick that’s being asked to cover a lot of No. 3 wide receivers. He’s played better than expected, but Stills is a higher talent level than most wide receivers he sees in coverage. Even without Parker in the lineup, though, Stills has seen just six targets over the last two weeks, making him just a dart-throw tournament option.
TEs: It’s been the Austin Seferian-Jenkins show over the last two weeks, as he’s totaled 19 targets that have resulted in 14 receptions for 75 yards and two touchdowns. As mentioned here in The Primer last week, his yardage totals are concerning (hasn’t topped 46 yards this year) and we know that scoring opportunities will be limited in the Jets offense. Still, his 29 targets now rank 15th among tight ends and he didn’t play the first two weeks of the season, meaning you have to at least consider him as a streamer every week. He was in the lineup the last time they played where he totaled 5/31/0 on eight targets. They haven’t allowed any massive performances out of tight ends this year like his last two opponents, so dial back expectations a bit in this game. He’s still in play as a high-end TE2 considering all the targets he’s seeing. Julius Thomas is the opposite of Seferian-Jenkins, as he’s created zero buzz this season. We’ve been tallying it and we’re now at 12 straight games where he’s failed to reach 30 yards. If you have Julius Thomas on your fantasy roster, you’re likely not doing so well. He’s not an option in any format, even against a Jets team that’s allowed four touchdowns to tight ends. Why? Because even if he scores a touchdown, it’ll be empty – like three catches for 23 yards and a touchdown.