Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Total: 45.5
Line: TEN by 5.5

It’s only natural to wonder how the Browns have any shot in this game, as they looked like a team in line for the No. 1 pick once again in 2018. Their defense has now allowed at least 31 points in three of the last four games, so it’s fair to say that their defense is still one to target in fantasy. Meanwhile, the Titans have allowed some massive fantasy performances, but there’s been just one game where they allowed more than 27 points. The Browns may get back Kenny Britt, though it’s a wonder if that’s a positive at this point.

QBs: It was good to see Marcus Mariota back on the field in Week 6, though it was apparent that he wasn’t quite 100 percent. If you take away his ability to run, you’re taking away what makes him an above average quarterback in this league. With another week to heal up, Mariota should be more himself, though he shouldn’t need to run so much against the Browns defense. They have now allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 27 of their last 32 games, including three or more in 10 of their last 21 games. Three of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played have finished as top-four quarterbacks for that week, which has included Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, and Deshaun Watson. Mariota needs to be started as a QB1. The Browns have decided to go back to DeShone Kizer this week, a decision that we probably should have seen coming with the way Kevin Hogan looked against the Texans. The Titans have been a stomping ground for opposing quarterbacks and largely in-part to the 13 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed. The Browns simply don’t have the receiving options to take advantage of the weakness, though, making Kizer just a low-end QB2 who should score some fantasy points with his legs.

RBs: It’s getting closer and closer to happening, but DeMarco Murray is going to eventually lose his job to Derrick Henry. There were multiple occasions against the Colts where Murray was tackled from behind by a linebacker (who he’d already passed), and on Mariota’s interception, he couldn’t catch up with linebacker John Simon. He may be playing with an injury or he may just be past his prime; both can be true. Over the last 12 weeks of games, here are the totals of each running back:

As you can see, it’s only a matter of time before Henry supplants Murray. With that being said, the Browns have not allowed a starting running back to score more than 12.7 PPR points against them. A lot of the totals they have allowed come via receiving, which is obviously where Murray shines. Because of that, he’s the preferred option in this game, though it’s hard to say he’s anything more than an RB2 with Henry nipping at his heels. Henry remains someone who is a prized possession in fantasy leagues, even though you can’t start him as anything more than an RB3 right now. In fact, he’s just an RB4 this week. If for whatever reason Murray misses this game due to his hamstring, lock in Henry as an RB1. Hue Jackson just continues to ride Isaiah Crowell for better or for worse, but he belongs on fantasy benches in this game. The Titans have one of the better front-sevens in football and stop the run extremely well. On the year, they’ve allowed just 3.58 yards per carry and two touchdowns. In fact, no running back has been able to eclipse 77 rushing yards against them and Crowell hasn’t been very involved in the passing game over the last five weeks, totaling just 39 yards in those games combined. He’s just an RB4. You were warned last week not to trust Johnson as anything more than a RB3, as the Browns just refuse to give him a lot of work. For whatever reason, Week 6 was one of his least used games this year. This is a game where he’ll be more useful than Crowell, as the Titans have already allowed two receiving touchdowns to running backs and they have allowed four running backs to rack up 30 or more receiving yards over the last five weeks. He’s back on the RB3 radar this week and has some sneaky upside.

WRs: The Browns have already allowed seven wide receiver touchdowns this year, including three last week to the Texans. The combination of Jason McCourty and Jamar Taylor on the perimeter isn’t one to shy away from, making Rishard Matthews a tempting WR3/WR4 option in this game. Taylor specifically has allowed over 15 yards per reception in his coverage and that’s who Matthews will see the majority of the time. Davis would lower Matthews’ ceiling, but not enough where you should bench him. Eric Decker showed signs of life last week, hauling in seven passes for 88 yards, so maybe he and Mariota have finally started to develop some chemistry. His matchup with Briean Boddy-Calhoun isn’t necessarily a good one, making Decker a WR5, but one who is trending in the right direction. Even if Kenny Britt suits up for this game, it’s hard to trust him as he is coming off a multiple week absence and has yet to total 55 yards in a game this year. There is the whole former Titans narrative, but that’s not something you should believe in. What makes him a little tempting is the lack of wide receiver talent around him and the fact that the Titans have been demolished by wide receivers through six weeks. They have actually looked better over the last two weeks, but have still allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. Britt is just a desperation WR5, though he comes with more upside than most in that range. Ricardo Louis was posting solid totals before disappointing in a good matchup with the Texans last week where he totaled just three catches for 25 yards. He’s still yet to score this season, which is concerning, but he will go against rookie cornerback Adoree Jackson this week, a player who has been beat quite consistently this season, allowing three touchdowns in his coverage already. On such a bad team, you can’t trust Louis as anything more than a low-end WR4, even in a great matchup.

TEs: Oddly enough, Delanie Walker has still yet to score a receiving touchdown this year (he has a rushing touchdown), while his teammates at tight end have three of them. That should get righted this week against the Browns who have already allowed four top-10 performances to tight ends, including a 68-yard, two-touchdown performance to Tyler Kroft a few weeks back. Walker is a must-start elite TE1 play who can be used in tournament and cash-game lineups. When Seth DeValve scored last week, I smiled as it was something that was talked about right here last week. He’d been playing more snaps than David Njoku and seeing more targets, meaning it was only a matter of time before he found the end zone. Does that mean you play him? No. There are a lot of tight ends who will find the end zone throughout the year, making them look better on the fantasy leaderboard than they actually are. Until the Browns go away from their timeshare at tight end, both DeValve and Njoku are going to be dicey touchdown-dependent options. Against the Titans, you shouldn’t really bank on either of them to do much.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 47.0
Line: DAL by 6.0

Coming off their bye week, the Cowboys could not have asked for a better opponent to play. The 49ers just benched Brian Hoyer for rookie C.J. Beathard last week and have announced he’ll be the starter against the Cowboys. It was a good time for the Cowboys to get a bye, too, as their defense had allowed at least 35 points in three of the last four games and desperately needed to get Sean Lee back on the field. Meanwhile, the 49ers have been a better defense than I think most expected, allowing 24.3 points per game this year. They did lose defensive end Arik Armstead in Week 6 to a broken hand, which is a downgrade for a defense that is lacking talent to begin with.

QBs: It’s hard not to love Dak Prescott in this game when you see that the 49ers have allowed plenty of top-tier performances to quarterbacks this year. Here are the finishes by each quarterback against them so far: Cam Newton (QB17), Russell Wilson (QB14), Jared Goff (QB9), Carson Palmer (QB15), Jacoby Brissett (QB10), and Kirk Cousins (QB1). Keep in mind that both Newton and Wilson were really struggling to start the season. There’s just one quarterback who I’d rather have for the rest of the season than Prescott, showing my confidence in him. He’s a locked-in QB1 this week who is a staple in cash-game lineups but also has tournament-winning upside. C.J. Beathard was not supposed to be starting this soon as a fourth-round pick, but the 49ers knew they were going nowhere in a hurry and need to see if they have any future with him. It’s hard to take anything away from last week, as he didn’t take starters reps and likely wasn’t mentally prepared to step into that game, though he performed better than one would expect. The Cowboys have allowed each of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played to total at least 18 fantasy points, but Beathard isn’t likely to approach QB1 numbers in his first career start, even if it is a great matchup. He can be considered in 2QB leagues, but that’s about it.

RBs: Those who picked up Alfred Morris off the waiver wire were going to look smart this week, as it was a game-script that fits his role, rather than the pass-catching role that Darren McFadden occupies. Through six games, the 49ers have allowed nine different running backs to finish inside the top-30 performers at running back, including both Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine last week. Oddly enough, they have allowed just one rushing touchdown outside of the two-touchdown performance by Todd Gurley on Thursday night football, which is worth noting. They have allowed a massive 440 yards receiving to running backs, which ranks as the second-most in the NFL, as well as three receiving touchdowns, which is tied for the most in the NFL. The ruling came down that Ezekiel Elliott can play in this game, making the whole Morris/McFadden debate one that doesn’t matter for at least another week. Elliott is going to be an elite RB1 in this contest. Carlos Hyde got back into the top-12 running backs last week while scoring two touchdowns and showcasing himself for a potential trade partner. The 49ers are taking and placing calls about Hyde, who is in a contract year, which makes plenty of sense. The Cowboys have now allowed three of the last four running backs to play them to rack up at least 118 yards on the ground. The only running back who didn’t was Chris Johnson, who is no longer on a team. Of course, the return of linebacker Sean Lee would be very good for them, as two of those games came while he was out with a hamstring injury. It helps that Hyde is very involved in the passing game, averaging almost four catches per game, which eliminates game-script concern. There have already been three running backs who have totaled more than 50 yards receiving against the Cowboys. Hyde is a back-end RB1 in this contest. Matt Breida needs to be rostered in every league now that we know Hyde could be shipped off, but he shouldn’t be played in any format, outside of a last-ditch effort RB4/5 because of bye week issues.

WRs: You’ve witnessed Dez Bryant have some extremely tough cornerback matchups to start the year, but that’s not the case in Week 7 when he’ll line up across from Rashard Robinson and Dontae Johnson, who have combined to allow four touchdowns in coverage this year. If you recall, they are the cornerback duo that allowed Sammy Watkins to have his one good game of 2017 when he posted 106 yards and two touchdowns against them. Bryant should score in this game and maybe twice. He’s locked and loaded as a WR1 this week. The Cowboys may have used the bye week to start moving away from Terrance Williams, as he’s been severely outplayed by Brice Butler this year. Williams has 25 targets on the season for 180 yards and no touchdowns, while Butler has 11 targets for 207 yards and two touchdowns. Because of the disparity in snaps that have gone in favor of Williams, you can’t trust either of them, though if they were going to switch to Butler, this would be the ideal time to do so. It’s something to pay attention to. Cole Beasley had been an afterthought in the offense until his two-touchdown game against the Packers, but it’s important to note that he’s still yet to top 33 yards in a game this season. His matchup in the slot with K’Waun Williams is actually the toughest on the field, so fade him all together. Outside of Adam Thielen, Pierre Garcon has the most yardage (434) without a single touchdown. We knew that scoring touchdowns wasn’t Garcon’s strength coming into the season, but he’s overdue to find the end zone. The Cowboys cornerback situation has changed throughout the year, leading them to cut free agent acquisition Nolan Carroll during the bye, leaving them with rookie Jourdan Lewis to start for them. He has allowed two touchdowns in his coverage, but he’s allowed just over five yards per target, which is among the best in the league. The weak link is Anthony Brown, who starts at RCB, which is where Garcon is just 30 percent of the time. Maybe the 49ers scheme a little bit different with Beathard under center, but Garcon is still a solid WR3 with all the volume he gets. His 56 targets rank No. 6 among wide receivers. There isn’t another wide receiver on the 49ers I’d feel comfortable playing in this game, as Marquise Goodwin is someone who relies on the deep ball, something the Cowboys haven’t been very prone to allowing this year. With Beathard under center in Week 6, he finished with just 26 yards, which is basically what he has every week. Trent Taylor has seen an increased role, but not one where you’d want to play him.

TEs: It’s sad to see Jason Witten fall down the fantasy leaderboards over the last few weeks, because if you recall, he was the No. 1 fantasy tight end after two weeks and it wasn’t all that close. But now, over his last three games combined, he’s totaled just 10 catches for 73 scoreless yards. The 49ers aren’t likely to bust him out of his slump, either, as they have not allowed a single tight end to finish better than the TE20 in any of their six games. Keep in mind that they’ve played against Jordan Reed, Jimmy Graham, and Greg Olsen. Witten is off the TE1 radar and belongs on fantasy benches. George Kittle has played with Beathard in the past, so it’s nice to have a connection between those two going forward. The Cowboys have been solid against tight ends this year, not allowing a single one to total more than 53 yards. It’s good to see Kittle getting targets (17 in the last two games), but dial back expectations this week. He’s a strong TE2 because of the targets he’s seeing, and keep in mind that his last two games where he kind of broke out came against the Colts and Redskins, two teams who really struggle to contain tight ends.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 41.5
Line: PIT by 6.0

This is typically a matchup we look forward to, but the Steelers offense hasn’t been what we all thought it would with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Martavis Bryant. They’re averaging just 19.7 points per game, which ranks 22nd in the league right now. Meanwhile, the Bengals have looked like a different team since the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Zampese, racking up 25.0 points per game in the last three weeks under Bill Lazor. The Steelers offense has typically been a juggernaut at home, but the Bengals defense has been great this year, allowing more than 20 points just once and that was to Aaron Rodgers. The thing to watch for this game is the status of Bengals cornerbacks Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick, as both are dinged up. The only injuries to monitor on the Steelers side of things is two offensive linemen, as both LG Ramon Foster and RT Marcus Gilbert appear questionable to play this week.

QBs: Andy Dalton has looked a lot better under Lazor, but part of that may have to do with the fact that he played against the Packers, Browns, and Bills before their bye week. The Steelers aren’t quite that easy, as they have yet to allow more than 14 fantasy points to a quarterback while throwing the ball. I mention that because both DeShone Kizer and Alex Smith finished with more than that, but it was due to their rushing totals, something Dalton doesn’t often get. But you can’t completely shut down Dalton, who has had two weeks to prepare for this game and played well in Pittsburgh last year, totaling 366 yards and one touchdown. In what’s a potential shootout, don’t dismiss Dalton as someone who can post solid QB2 numbers, though he doesn’t likely offer tournament-winning upside. Ben Roethlisberger looked slightly better last week, though not much. It’s important to remember that he’s been a different quarterback on the road over the last three and a half years, though. While at home against a similar Bengals defense last year, he totaled 259 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. The game against the Jaguars two weeks ago was the first game at home he’d totaled fewer than 17.5 fantasy points since Week 8 of 2015, which was against the Bengals, oddly enough. Roethlisberger would receive a massive upgrade if Jones and/or Kirkpatrick were out for this game, but assuming they play, he’s a low-end QB1 for this divisional game.

RBs: Since Lazor took over, Joe Mixon has been the clear workhorse running back for the Bengals, totaling at least 15 carries in each game and averaging 19.0 touches per game, while Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard have combined to average 11.3 touches per game. That’s obviously a lot of touches to go around, though the Steelers opposing running backs have averaged 28.5 touches per game. They did shut down Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs run game last week, they have still allowed nearly five yards per carry on the year, including five rushing scores. Consider Mixon a solid-floor RB2 in this matchup, though if the Steelers get out in front early, we could see Bernard have a bigger impact than Mixon’s owners would hope. Bernard is a solid RB3/flex-play in PPR leagues, but just an RB4 in standard leagues. Hill is not playable in any format right now and it shouldn’t shock anyone if he were to fade out of this offense completely. Le’Veon Bell has looked more and more like his old-self over the last few weeks and has accumulated a massive 99 touches over the last three games, a number just 12 running backs have surpassed on the entire season. The Bengals have yet to allow an opposing team rush for more than 3.78 yards per carry and that’s despite missing LB Vontaze Burfict for the first two games of the season. Bell is obviously going to be in your lineups this week in season-long leagues, but he’s someone to fade in DFS with his massive price-tag. He’ll be highly owned because the Steelers are at home and that’s on top of all the volume he’s getting, but the Bengals are stout up front and have had two weeks rest, while Bell has been abused the last few weeks. If you’re setting multiple tournament lineups, I’d never completely neglect him in lineups, but you should limit your ownership.

WRs: Remember when A.J. Green said that he wasn’t getting the ball enough? Well, he’s now seen 33 targets in the three games since. It’s fair to say that won’t be an issue going forward and that’s including his matchup this week against the Steelers. They are a team he’s dominated in the past, though there’s an interesting stat I found on the Steelers pass defense this year. They have played six games, and in those games, they have yet to allow the combination of WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE1 combine for more than 149 yards and one touchdown. That’s somewhat ridiculous, however, the only opponent who had a legitimate passing attack was the Vikings, and that was the week Case Keenum started on short notice. Some may avoid this matchup because of what they’ve done so far, but a lot can be blamed on the small sample size. Start Green as a WR1 and feel good about it. Brandon LaFell hasn’t done anything this year, totaling 32 yards or less in every game, so he can safely be avoided unless Green were to miss time. John Ross is apparently on track to play, which is good, but he’s not to be trusted until we see him play a full complement of snaps. There isn’t a wide receiver in the league who comes close to Antonio Brown‘s 74 targets through six weeks, and he’s got a 19-point advantage over the next closest wide receiver in PPR points. He’s always going to be played in lineups and for good reason, especially when the Steelers are at home. If Adam Jones or Dre Kirkpatrick were to miss this game, expect Brown to go bonkers, though he may even if they’re on the field; he’s that good. Martavis Bryant is rumored to want out of Pittsburgh and I can’t really blame him considering how little he’s been used. Coming off a game where he saw just three targets and the fact that the trade rumors leaked, you have to wonder if the squeaky wheel gets the grease here, as some have reported that a trade is very unlikely. He’d see Adam Jones the most and he’s someone who missed practice early in the week and is not sure to even play. If the Bengals trust Jones in single man coverage against Bryant, it won’t end well for them. Consider Bryant a high-risk, high-reward WR4 this week and one that I’d play over a boring low-ceiling option. JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to play more snaps than Bryant, though he has topped out at six targets, making him a risky proposition as anything more than a WR5 in a good offense. Should the Steelers go the other route with Bryant and essentially punish him for the requested trade, Smith-Schuster would be the greatest beneficiary.

TEs: Now that we know Tyler Eifert won’t return for the season, it’s fair to say that Tyler Kroft needs to be on fantasy radars. He’s seen 16 targets in the three games since Eifert was deactivated, which is a solid amount for the position. The Steelers have held tight ends in check, though, and have yet to allow any of them finish better than the TE15 in any given week. In fact, quarterbacks have been intercepted three times while targeting them. He shouldn’t need to be played this week. You have to wonder if the Steelers are regretting the trade they made for Vance McDonald, as he finally played half the snaps in Week 6, but has played just 32 percent of the snaps on the year. Jesse James continues to play the majority of snaps and be the primary pass catcher, though he’s worthless in fantasy if he doesn’t score a touchdown. Since his Week 1 outburst that had 41 yards and two touchdowns, he’s totaled just 110 yards and no touchdowns in the following five games combined. The Bengals haven’t shown a particular weakness against tight ends to this point, so feel free to ignore him.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

Total: 40.5
Line: SEA by 5.5

So, the Giants wind up getting their first win while without their top three wide receivers and playing in Denver against a Broncos team that had two weeks to prepare? This is why we love and hate the NFL so much. The Seahawks are the next in line coming off their bye to play the Giants, though this game will take place in New York. The Seahawks have been unpredictable themselves this year, but oddsmakers see this game as one-sided, favoring them by nearly a touchdown. For being a well-respected defense, the Giants sure have allowed some points this year. In fact, Week 6 ended a four-game streak where they had allowed at least 24 points in every game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have allowed just one team to score more than 18 points against them.

QBs: After what was a slow start to the season, Russell Wilson has gotten back on track for the most part, averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game over the last four games. After allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last year, the Giants have struggled to contain them thus far, allowing 17.9 points per game, the seventh-highest total in football. They’ve yet to hold a quarterback below 13.2 fantasy points, and while that may not seem like a big number, five of the six quarterbacks have scored at least 15.2 fantasy points. It’s large in part to the 11 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed, which is tied for the fifth-most. The problem with projecting Wilson for big totals is because he may struggle to stay upright, as his starting left guard Luke Joeckel just underwent surgery and will miss a few weeks. The Giants have failed to pressure opposing quarterbacks this year, but that may change in this game at home. Consider Wilson a low-end (though high-floor) QB1 due to the state of his offensive line. Eli Manning won’t be a recommended start in even good matchups, so knowing that he’ll play against a defense that has allowed just one top-15 quarterback all season. He’s not to be played, even in 2QB leagues if you can help it.

RBs: Even if we know who the starter is in the Seahawks backfield, we cannot trust him. They announced that Eddie Lacy was getting the start against the Rams in Week 5, yet he got nine carries, while Thomas Rawls had eight of them. This is a nightmare to predict every week, and on top of that, they play behind what is the worst offensive line in football. Even though the Giants have shown some vulnerability against the run, they have allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the year. If forced to choose one of them, Rawls would be my preference, though he’s nothing more than a risky RB4. Lacy should be benched. It seems like C.J. Prosise will be back for this game, but both he and J.D. McKissic should be left on benches until we see one of them emerge with the job. We saw a new Giants offense in Week 6 that featured former UDFA Orleans Darkwa, leading most to believe he’s the one to own going forward. That may be the case, but don’t get excited about a potential timeshare running back behind a bad offensive line in a bad offense. Even if he is the “leader” in carries, Wayne Gallman has played well enough to warrant some carries, and Shane Vereen handles the passing down work. After allowing over 100 yards to both Carlos Hyde and Demarco Murray, the Seahawks got back on track, holding Frank Gore and Todd Gurley to a combined 89 yards in their last two games. With negative game-script likely, Darkwa is just a risky RB3 for this game. Gallman is just a desperation RB5, while Vereen is someone that should see increased work in the passing game once they fall behind, which is something that didn’t happen like we expected against the Broncos. Consider Vereen an RB4 this week.

WRs: The Giants announced earlier this week that Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie would be re-joining the team for this week’s game, which is quite fitting because of the matchup they would have had without him. Doug Baldwin will see him in coverage, so you obviously want to downgrade him a bit. Rodgers-Cromartie is one of the better slot cornerbacks in the game and Baldwin has really struggled to get much going this year. Outside of the one game against the Titans where he totaled 105 yards and a touchdown, Baldwin has averaged just 4.3 receptions for 44.8 yards and no touchdowns. We know what he’s capable of, but he needs to be downgraded to low-end WR2 territory in this game. Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett have been going back and forth between LWR and RWR, meaning they’ll both see Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple throughout the game. If choosing one of the two, Lockett is one who offers more splash-play potential, so feel free to use him as a high-upside WR4 in this game. Richardson is more in the WR5 conversation, as he often requires a touchdown to live up to anything more than that. You didn’t have to consider any of the Giants wide receivers against the Broncos and you really don’t have to in this game, either. If Sterling Shepard were to suit up, he’d deserve WR4 consideration, but it’s very unlikely they play him with their bye after this game. Roger Lewis is the one in line for the most targets, but against a Seahawks team that has allowed just one wide receiver more than 12 PPR points in their last four games, you can do better. He’s just a WR5 despite being the No. 1 receiver on his team. If you’re wondering what the snap count looked like between the Giants wide receivers in Week 6, Lewis played 48 snaps, while Tavarres King played 46, and Travis Rudolph played 23.

TEs: If you’re looking for a fantasy superstar for this game, it’s probably Jimmy Graham, as he’s been the focal point of this offense over the last three games, averaging 8.3 targets, 5.7 receptions, 56.7 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns. The Giants also happen to be the worst in the league when it comes to defending tight ends, and have now allowed a top-13 tight end in every game, including three top-three performances. As crazy as it sounds, they have allowed a tight end touchdown every single game this year. Graham needs to be played as a TE1 and is a great option in DFS lineups. Evan Engram was the focal point of the Giants offense last week, which was to be expected. The Seahawks have done an extremely good job at defending tight ends this year, holding all but one to 7.7 or less PPR points. It was Tyler Higbee before their bye week, where he totaled four catches for 98 yards, but no touchdown. Engram is going to continue to be a target hog, which is the reason he’s a must-start no matter the matchup in season-long leagues, but this isn’t a week to go all-in on him in DFS.