Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 44.5
Line: TB by 2.5
Even though we’ve seen a seven-week sample, do we have any clue who these teams are? Cam Newton has been a different quarterback every week, while the Bucs went from having what looked like a solid defense, to one that was allowing Adrian Peterson to rediscover the fountain of youth. Jameis Winston went from someone who couldn’t play in Week 6, to someone who was throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills on the road. The Panthers should get linebacker Luke Kuechly and safety Kurt Coleman back this week, but they may be missing two offensive linemen due to injury – RG Trai Turner (better shot to play) and C Ryan Kalil. Meanwhile, the Bucs are a team who is near full strength.
QBs: The Panthers offensive line isn’t what you’d call a strength right now, but it may not be a big factor against the Bucs, because they are a team that’s struggled to generate any pressure on the opposing quarterback. Through seven weeks, they’ve sacked the opposing quarterback on just 3.06 percent of their dropbacks, which is the worst in the NFL. Newton has reverted back to the quarterback he used to be, which is great for his fantasy production because he is running the ball. He’s now run for at least 44 yards in three of his last four games, something that essentially never happened in 2016. He’s still struggling to throw the ball and now has five interceptions over the last two weeks. The Bucs are a get-right spot for his passing game struggles, as they’ve allowed 10 passing scores in their last five games, including two quarterbacks (Case Keenum, Tom Brady) to throw for more than 300 yards. They’ve also allowed some solid rushing totals to opposing quarterbacks, including 53 yards to Tyrod Taylor last week. Newton is on the QB1 radar despite his struggles passing the ball. It’s clear that we can plug Jameis Winston into fantasy lineups if we’d like now that we’ve seen him play through his shoulder injury (and play well). The issue with counting on a repeat performance out of him is that the Panthers have allowed just one quarterback (Tom Brady) to throw for more than 229 yards this year. They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their last five games, though, so don’t automatically count Winston out. It’s realistic to count on somewhere around 250 yards and two touchdowns out of him, putting him right at the tail-end of the QB1 conversation, or a high-end QB2 at the very least.
RBs: Who would’ve thought that all that projecting Panthers running backs this offseason wouldn’t have made a difference? Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey have combined to be the worst run unit in the league, totaling just 409 yards on 144 carries (2.84 YPC) and zero touchdowns. The good news for McCaffrey supporters is that he’s caught 44 balls and is one pace to finish the season with over 100 receptions, making him a PPR owners dream. There’s no reason to run from him in this matchup, either, as the Bucs have already allowed Tarik Cohen 8/55/0 through the air, Dalvin Cook 5/72/0, and James White 7/57/0. It’s the way the Panthers will have to move the ball, because their ground game isn’t working. Consider McCaffrey a solid RB2 in standard leagues and a high-end RB2 in PPR leagues. Stewart needs to score and he may have caught the Bucs at the right time because they’ve allowed four rushing touchdowns in their last two games to Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, he won’t produce top-30 numbers, so consider him a high-risk RB3 for this game. Since returning from his suspension, Doug Martin has seen his yards per carry dip each week, though the Cardinals and Bills are not great matchups. The good part is that he’s averaged 17.0 touches per game since returning, making him an RB2 at minimum each week. The Panthers aren’t the same defense without Luke Kuechly, but it appears he should return for this game. They have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry to opponents this game and have yet to allow a running back to finish better than the RB17 in any given week. Martin is just a middling RB2 in this game, but his volume makes him incredibly hard to sit. The Bucs have allowed at least one running back to rack up 30 or more receiving yards in five of their six games, which is a bonus and something that would typically benefit Charles Sims, but he’s impossible to play in any format.
WRs: It’s now been five weeks in a row where Devin Funchess has seen eight or more targets, though he’s been a disappointment in the last two games finishing with just 77 yards combined in those games. It all comes back to Newton’s accuracy or lack thereof, as Funchess had his two best games while Newton was slinging it. Tampa Bay doesn’t have a cornerback who is taller than 5-10, which should give a big advantage to both Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin. The Bucs are also coming off three games in which they allowed six wide receivers to finish as top-24 options. Funchess will have the tougher matchup with Brent Grimes half the time, while Benjamin will see struggling second-year cornerback Vernon Hargreaves in coverage. He allowed the most yards in his coverage last year and has allowed the fifth-most yardage this year. Consider Benjamin a solid WR2 and Funchess as a low-end WR3 for this game. Mike Evans has been quietly having a great season, as he’s now caught at least five passes in 5-of-6 games, totaled at least 67 yards in 5-of-6 games, and scored a touchdown in 4-of-6 games. It’s important to note that he’s played against Xavier Rhodes, Janoris Jenkins, Stephon Gilmore, and Patrick Peterson. So looking at the Panthers defense who doesn’t have that true No. 1 cornerback to contain Evans, fire him up as a great WR1 play. It should be noted that the Panthers have still yet to allow a top-12 wide receiver, though they have allowed both Michael Thomas (7/87/1) and Chris Hogan (5/60/1) top-15 performances. DeSean Jackson has been getting more and more settled in this offense, now having either a touchdown or 73 yards in four of his last five games. The Panthers have yet to allow two wide receivers to finish with more than 60 yards, making Jackson a tad risky if we like Evans as a WR1. You’ll plug Jackson into your lineups as you normally would, but I wouldn’t expect more than WR3 numbers. Slot wide receivers have scored against the Panthers in three of their last five games, but that’s not Adam Humphries‘ strength, as he has just three career touchdowns on 158 targets. Don’t play him and count on a touchdown.
TEs: The Panthers will be without Greg Olsen until Week 12, but the good news is that it appears he’ll be ready to play once he’s eligible. Until then, we are stuck with Ed Dickson. The Bucs have allowed two tight end touchdowns this year, though both came to a backup tight end. They’ve also allowed just 229 yards to the position, one of the lowest yardage totals in the league. Don’t play Dickson in any contest you want to win. Just when we thought it was Cameron Brate‘s job, O.J. Howard goes and finishes as the TE1 last week with 6/98/2. Both of them are going to be involved, but Brate is still the go-to-guy, as he’s running 27.3 pass routes per game compared to Howard’s 16.8 pass routes, though Howard did run a season-high 20 pass routes against the Bills last week. The Panthers have struggled with tight ends over the last month, allowing three top-10 performances. The only team who didn’t have a top-10 performer was the Bears last week when they threw the ball just seven times. Zach Miller still wound up with 2/29/0. Brate is locked in as a TE1 this week while Howard is just an upside TE2 who can leave a big fat donut on your roster, as he’s scored 1.7 or less standard fantasy points in 4-of-6 games.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 41.5
Line: CIN by 10.0
Now that we know Andrew Luck isn’t coming back for a long time (if at all), we need to approach this team as one that has scored 18 or less points in four of their seven games. Meanwhile, the Bengals massively disappointed coming off their bye last week, though they were on the road in Pittsburgh. They’ll return home this week, a place they’ve allowed just 16.3 points per game to opponents, which is likely why they’re favored by 10 points against the Colts. On top of that, the Colts defense just lost their star rookie safety Malik Hooker for the year to a torn ACL. They weren’t a great defense before his injury, but this will make matters worse. On top of his injury, linebacker John Simon is also going to miss some time. The Bengals were without cornerback Adam Jones last week and we don’t know if his status will get any clearer by the time this article posts.
QBs: Outside of Jacoby Brissett‘s massive game against the Browns when he totaled 27.8 fantasy points, he hasn’t done much in fantasy. In the other five games he’s started, he’s averaged just 219.8 yards passing with 0.4 touchdowns and 0.4 interceptions. His rushing totals have kept him somewhat afloat, but this isn’t a week where you’ll want to use him. Aaron Rodgers was the only quarterback to throw for more than 224 yards against them this season, and outside of their game against him, they’ve allowed just four passing touchdowns in five games. You shouldn’t plan on starting Brissett unless you’re in a 2QB league and your other quarterback is on a bye week. Andy Dalton on the other hand, is a great play. The Colts held true to their form last week and have now allowed a top-15 quarterback in seven straight games. The loss of Hooker also removes some of the risk that was associated playing against the Colts, as he had already intercepted three passes. All but one of the Colts opponents (DeShone Kizer) has thrown for at least 295 yards, including three quarterbacks with at least 330 yards. They have also allowed at least one passing touchdown in every game, though never more than two in a game. Again, they are missing two starters, so that should raise the floor even more. Start Dalton as a QB1 this week.
RBs: I mentioned here last week that Frank Gore belongs on waiver wires as someone who can get you 4-7 points per week, though he didn’t even do that against the Jaguars. He finished with a season-low 34 yards on nine carries, while Marlon Mack touched the ball nine times, racking up 66 total yards. Gore isn’t going to be able to run the ball against the Bengals front-seven that has yet to allow an opponent four yards per carry. Le’Veon Bell was the first one who totaled more than 80 rushing yards, but it took him a ton of carries to get there. The Bengals have also allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the season and just one in their last five games. Gore is nothing more than an RB4 who will disappoint. Mack is the more explosive player and the preferred fantasy play out of this backfield, as he played a season-high 48 percent of the snaps against the Jaguars. His previous high was 34 percent of the snaps in Week 1, so we’re headed in the right direction. As mentioned, though, the Bengals aren’t an easy team to move the ball on. Mack will have to get it done through the air, which many backs have had to do. Considering the Colts have still yet to give him the majority of work, it’s hard to count on him, but you can do worse than him as a high-upside RB4 during bye weeks. Joe Mixon came out after the Bengals loss and said they need to run the ball more, which is something that head coach Marvin Lewis caught wind of and said Mixon needs to mature. It was puzzling why the Bengals went away from the run game, as it was the Steelers biggest weakness. Still, it’s never good to hear a coach tell a rookie that he needs to grow up, especially when he’s involved in a timeshare. This game should allow them to run the ball an awful lot and here’s the amount of carries distributed since Bill Lazor took over as the offensive coordinator: Mixon 57, Jeremy Hill 21, Giovani Bernard 11. Mixon also leads the team in receptions since the change, totaling 10/78/0 while Bernard sits at 8/108/0. The Colts have faced a lot of volume this year and have now allowed opponents to record at least 27 carries in three of their last four games, including 64 combined carries over the last two weeks. When looking at the recipe for success for running backs, you want him to be at home, a favorite, and locked into the lead role. It appears that Mixon checks all the boxes, though Lewis’ comments are concerning. Plug him in as an RB2 who has RB1 upside written all over him. I wouldn’t start Bernard or Hill if I could help it, though Hill could see a goal-line plunge.
WRs: It’s been a nightmarish start to the season for Hilton, who has two games that have accounted for 71 percent of his fantasy production. Outside of his two games against the Browns and 49ers, Hilton has failed to record more than 57 yards and has now totaled 30 yards or less in three of his last four games. We knew last week was going to be tough against the Jaguars, but it’s clear that Hilton is just a matchup starter with Brissett under center. This is not one of those matchups, though it’s not as bad as one might think. Hilton goes into the slot about 35 percent of the time, which is how he would evade Adam Jones’ and Dre Kirkpatrick’s coverage. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brandon Tate, and Jeremy Maclin are all slot wide receivers who have scored against the Bengals, so if the Colts were wise, they’d stick Hilton there more often in this game. He’s a risky WR3, but one who could pay off with one big play out of the slot. Donte Moncrief belongs on waiver wires now that we know Luck is a ways from returning. You aren’t starting him or Kamar Aiken in any format. A.J. Green struggled to get open against the Steelers defense last week, which was the first time under Lazor he’s failed to post numbers. We’ll chalk it up to a bad matchup, as no wide receiver has been able to post more than 61 yards against them this season. The Colts have no answer to Green, as they’ll try to match him up with Vontae Davis, who just hasn’t been the same player he once was. There are very few cornerbacks who can cover Green one-on-one and Davis is not one of them. Green should be the fourth wide receiver to post more than 100 yards against them and is an elite-level WR1. It seems like the Bengals are expecting John Ross back for this game, though you shouldn’t play him until a few things happen. One being him on the field for a majority of snaps, and two, getting targets in the offense. Brandon LaFell scored last week, but he’s still failed to top 32 yards in any one game this year. Oddly enough, the Colts have only allowed four wide receiver touchdowns this year, so it’s hard to say that LaFell has a good shot at a touchdown. He’s just a WR6 in fantasy leagues without a Green injury.
TEs: In the last three games Jack Doyle has played, he’s totaled 25 targets from Brissett, which is a large number for a tight end. With those targets, he’s totaled 18/121/1, which isn’t great, but the volume is the key thing we look at with tight ends. It’s enough to at least consider him in most games, but it’s hard to say that he’s streamer-worthy against the Bengals, who have been one of the better teams in the NFL at defending tight ends, though it’s worth noting that they haven’t faced many target-hogs. In fact, they have faced just 25 tight end targets as a team, the lowest in the NFL by a lot. On those 25 targets, they’ve allowed 228 yards and one touchdown. Doyle is still in the TE2 conversation with all the targets he’s been getting and the fact that this game has garbage time written all over it. It appears that Tyler Kroft has just stepped into Tyler Eifert‘s old role and is now a touchdown-catching machine. He’s seen 16 targets over the last three games and has scored three times, bringing him up to No. 5 in touchdowns among tight ends. The Colts have been no stranger to allowing tight end touchdowns themselves, as they’ve allowed four of them through seven games (including three in their last four games), which ranks as the sixth-most in the league. Kroft is in the TE2 conversation as someone who should have a good chance to score.
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills
Total: 45.5
Line: BUF by 3.0
There is a lot on the line for both these teams coming into Week 8, as the Raiders just came off a four-game losing streak with a big win over the Chiefs, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Bills can’t afford to take any game for granted in the ultra-competitive AFC East. They’re 3-0 at home this year while the Raiders are 1-2 on the road, so you’d think the edge would have to go to the Bills. It needs to be mentioned that teams may be catching on to what the Bills are doing from a defensive standpoint, because after not allowing a single team to score more than 17 points in the first four games, they’ve now allowed 20 points to the Bengals and 27 points to the Bucs over their last two games. Meanwhile, the Raiders have allowed three of their last five opponents to score 27 or more points against them. The Raiders will be without Marshawn Lynch for this game, though it’s hard to say it’s a downgrade for their offense that looked great without him in Week 7. The Bills may be without starting safety Jordan Poyer this week, as he was injured late in the game against the Bucs, so that’s something to pay attention to, as he’s been playing extremely well.
QBs: Don’t get too excited after Derek Carr‘s Week 7 performance that included 417 yards and three touchdowns. It was just the fifth time in the last 16 games where he’s eclipsed 18 fantasy points, which is what it often takes to be a top-12 quarterback. Carr isn’t a bad quarterback by any means, but he’s often not getting the volume it takes to reach QB1 levels. In fact, his 52 pass attempts in Week 7 was the first time since Week 14 of 2016 where he threw the ball more than 32 times. After starting out the season hot, the Bills have really cooled off, allowing 54 completions over the last two weeks for 712 yards and four touchdowns to the combination of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. Add in the fact that they may be without one of their starting safeties and starting cornerback E.J. Gaines, and the matchup isn’t as bad as it may have looked a few weeks ago. If both Poyer and Gaines are ruled out, consider Carr a low-end QB1 with some upside. He still has streaming appeal even if one or neither of them are out. Tyrod Taylor continues to magically score fantasy points despite the fact that he has zero pass-catchers on his team. Despite his No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers totaled just four catches for 27 scoreless yards, Taylor was still able to post 20 fantasy points against the Bucs last week, largely because of his 53 rushing yards, which is more than a touchdown. The Raiders have already allowed three top-six performances on the season, including Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, and Alex Smith. The Raiders do play a lot of zone, which should help limit Taylor’s rushing totals. Still, the only quarterbacks who have finished with less than 14.3 fantasy points against the Raiders were Trevor Siemian and Joe Flacco. Consider Taylor as a high-end QB2 who has a high-floor.
RBs: Now without Marshawn Lynch, we’ll see how the Raiders plan to use their running back tandem of DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. Once Lynch was ejected versus the Chiefs, both Washington and Richard got work, though Washington had the more valuable fantasy role. He received the touches inside the five-yard line, while Richard played on a lot of passing downs. Against the Bills, it’s tough to say they’ll big down big at any point, meaning Washington should be involved throughout the game. Richard would benefit if the Raiders did fall behind, though Washington catch passes as well. There’s been just one starting running back who’s averaged more than 3.4 yards per carry against the Bills which is a concern, but they’ve also allowed a rushing touchdown in three of their last four games. It’s hard to trust Washington as anything more than a high-end RB3/flex-type option, while Richard is a borderline starter, though bye week blues have kicked in, making him an RB3. It was good to see LeSean McCoy get into the end zone last week, as he’d failed to score in their first five games. He’s also seen at least six targets in 5-of-6 games this year, making him a combination running back/wide receiver in fantasy leagues. It just goes to show that even though he’s averaged just 3.4 yards per carry this year, he still has value in other ways. Count me as someone who believes he’ll get his yards per carry up as the season goes on. The Raiders have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to running backs despite playing against names like Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray (he’s been bad), Samaje Perine, and Javorius Allen, which should make you wonder just how high McCoy’s ceiling is in this game. They’ve only allowed two rushing touchdowns on the year, but they’ve also allowed two receiving touchdowns to running backs. McCoy is shiftier than Chris Thompson, who posted a 6/150/1 receiving line against the Raiders back in Week 3. McCoy is an RB1 each and every week. Mike Tolbert shouldn’t be considered due to the lack of rushing touchdowns allowed by the Raiders.
WRs: Here’s to hoping that you started Amari Cooper last week. It wasn’t all pretty, but Cooper’s 210 yards and two touchdowns won fantasy leagues, as it was the best fantasy performance by a wide receiver this year. Next on the list was Stefon Diggs‘ 173-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Bucs. There are just 37 wide receivers who have more than 210 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Now that I’m done drooling over Cooper, it didn’t come easy, as Cooper did drop a few passes, meaning he hasn’t righted the entire ship. His matchup this week was supposed to be against E.J. Gaines, who appears likely to miss this game. The Bills would turn to Shareece Wright to cover Cooper. If you have forgot, Wright was someone we aimed to target in DFS, as he was allowing seemingly two touchdowns a week in coverage with the Ravens. He came on for Gaines in Week 7 and immediately allowed 5-of-6 targets to be caught for 90 yards and a touchdown. Cooper may still have some things to work through, but he’s a high-end WR2 in this game with big potential. Michael Crabtree cannot be forgotten, either, as he’ll see rookie Tre’Davious White in coverage. White started the year really hot, but has cooled down the last few weeks while trying to cover A.J. Green and Mike Evans. While Crabtree isn’t on their level, he’s a veteran that should know how to work the rookie. Crabtree is a rock-solid WR2 in this matchup. Let’s be real, are you going to use any Bills wide receiver? It would shock me if you owned any of them in season-long leagues. Even though Deonte Thompson joined the team just last week, he did haul in four catches for 107 yards, but he was fourth among wide receivers in snaps, making it more than likely a fluke. Jordan Matthews has seen just 15 targets in the five games he’s played this year, making him a risky proposition, even in a plus-matchup. Avoid the Bills pass-catchers if possible, though if you had to pick one, it’d have to be Matthews.
TEs: We’re now almost halfway through the fantasy season and Jared Cook sits as the No. 9 fantasy tight end despite scoring just one touchdown. That’s not something anyone would’ve expected, but he’s consistently seeing six or more targets, which is something that’s hard to find at the tight end position. The Bills have struggled to defend the tight end position this year, allowing over 400 yards and two touchdowns through just six games, and that’s despite playing against Will Tye, Ed Dickson, Virgil Green, Austin Hooper, Tyler Kroft, and lastly the Bucs duo of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. Once the competition got better, the Bills have shown a vulnerability to the position, making Cook a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 this week. The only concern is that they don’t necessarily need him to produce considering Cooper’s plus-matchup and Crabtree’s goal-line presence. It seems like Charles Clay will miss another week, putting Nick O’Leary as the starting tight end once again. After seeing six targets in his first game, O’Leary saw just two targets against the Bucs last week, which doesn’t do much for our trust in him as a streamer. Granted, he has now totaled 54 and 58 yards in his two starts, which is very respectable, but he’s not going to continue averaging 18.3 yards per reception like he has thus far. It’s hard not to like him this week considering how bad the Raiders have been against tight ends, though. Now seven games in, the Raiders have allowed five tight ends to finish inside the top-eight for that particular week. The only two who didn’t were Ben Watson and Will Tye, two guys who don’t move very well. O’Leary is a sneaky streaming option this week, though he’s not as safe as most would prefer.
