Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Total: 42.5
Line: DET by 3.0

QBs
Matthew Stafford: It wasn’t all pretty against the Browns, but in the end, Stafford got the job done. He’s now hit the 18-point mark in each of the last three games and will head into a divisional matchup with the Bears, who just lost at home to the Brett Hundley-led Packers. Still, Stafford struggled in the matchups against a similar Bears defense last year. In the two games against them, he totaled 436 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. He did run for a touchdown in one of the games, but he had a few of his worst games against them. Divisional matchups are often tougher than most expect, so because of that, Stafford should be looked at as a low-end QB1. There’s actually been just one quarterback who’s thrown more than one touchdown against the Bears and that was Aaron Rodgers back in Week 4.

Mitch Trubisky: With the addition of Dontrelle Inman, it seemed that Trubisky had more confidence throwing the ball downfield in Week 10. Granted, the offensive line didn’t block very well and he was sacked five times, but it was promising. The downfall is that he didn’t rush for anything, something that had been propping up his fantasy floor. His athleticism obviously didn’t go away, so that should still be there in weeks to come. The Lions defense started the year solid, holding each of the first four quarterbacks they played outside the top-22 for the week. Over their last five games, though, they’ve allowed four top-15 finishes, including a top-five finish to rookie DeShone Kizer last week. You aren’t going to trust Trubisky in 1QB leagues, but if last week was an indication of how the passing game will go, he’s trending into the “stream in good matchups” conversation. He’s worth playing in 2QB leagues this week and hopefully the Bears design a few run plays for him because the Lions have allowed rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in back-to-back games.

RBs
Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick: Abdullah was saying that he wanted more goal-line opportunities a couple weeks ago and he’s now scored in back-to-back games. He’s failed to reach 12 carries in three of the last five games, which is a tad concerning, but his touchdowns have masked some of that concern. Some more negative is that he’s failed to top 57 total yards in each of the last five weeks, which is likely due to the fact that he’s not involved in the passing game, totaling just 26 yards through the air over the last five games. Riddick has reclaimed his receiving role and is worth a flex start most of the time, as he’s now recorded at least 53 yards or a touchdown in four of the last five games. There’s been just one team to total less than 20 carries against the Bears this season, so Abdullah should be in line for 15-plus carries here, making him a low-end RB2. Riddick should have no issue getting into the top-36 PPR running backs this week, as the Bears have allowed five different running backs 36 or more receiving yards.

Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: It’s gotten to the point where I don’t feel the need to mention Cohen, which is odd considering what he did for the team earlier in the season. He’s totaled just five carries over the last three weeks and has just one reception in each of them. This is what coaching does to a player. For whatever reason, the coaching staff also chose to give Howard his lowest volume since Week 2, hurting a lot of fantasy teams in the process. Expect them to rectify that issue in Week 11 and give Howard the ball 18-plus times against a Lions defense that’s allowed 10 rushing scores on the season (2 QB, 8 RB), including seven in their last four games. The loss of Haloti Ngata has proven to be a big loss for them. Howard needs to be played as an RB1, while Cohen is waiver wire material at this point, sadly.

WRs
Marvin Jones: After seeing 11 or more targets for three weeks in a row, the Lions chose to target Jones just two times against the Browns. Even Kenny Golladay, who hadn’t played in well over a month, saw three targets. Call it a glitch in the matrix. The Bears don’t have the prototypical No. 1 cornerback, though they’ve been trusting Kyle Fuller in a lot of situations, and he is the one who gave up the game-winning touchdown to Davante Adams last week and looked bad while doing it. Jones may have more risk than we’d hoped, but not enough to keep him out of the WR2 conversation this week.

Golden Tate: He’s supposed to have a tougher matchup than Jones this week, as the Bears typically deploy Bryce Callahan on slot receivers, and he has allowed just 191 yards in his coverage this year on 29 targets. However, Callahan suffered a knee injury in their Week 8 game against the Saints and wasn’t able to go against the Packers after their bye week. If he’s out, Tate would use undrafted free agent Cre’von LeBlanc in coverage, a downgrade from Callahan. Tate is a low-end WR2 if Callahan can go, but I’d upgrade him to high-end WR2 if he’s out.

Kenny Golladay: Saw three targets against the Browns and played just 11 snaps. Before trusting him in lineups, you want to see him play at least 50 percent of the snaps.

Dontrelle Inman: In his first game with the team, Inman saw a team-high eight targets, showing the necessity for his services in the Bears passing game. With Zach Miller out for the season, it’s only natural for Trubisky to find a new favorite and Inman already posted the second-best yardage total of a Bears wide receiver this year. He might see Darius Slay this week, though, making him less attractive, as Slay has shut down most opposing No. 1 wide receivers this year. Maybe the Lions don’t use him to shadow Inman? That’s the only hope, but knowing there’s a risk of that, Inman is a WR5, though safer than most in that territory.

Kendall Wright: He only plays when the Bears go into three-wide receiver sets, limiting his potential in the offense. It’s still a positive sign that he’s seen eight targets in each of their last two games, and knowing he’s got a solid matchup with Quandre Diggs, Wright should be somewhat of a high-floor WR5.

TEs
Eric Ebron: We talked about Ebron here last week as a low-end TE1 against the Browns, so it was good to see him come through with a long touchdown catch. The issue with counting on that going forward is that he’s failed to see more than four targets in five of his last six games. That’s not great for a tight end who doesn’t score many touchdowns. He’s scored three touchdowns the last two years on 124 targets. The Bears have allowed just one tight end to account for more than 45 yards against them and that came way back in Week 1, so they aren’t a team to stream tight ends against anyways. Ebron is just a middling TE2.

Adam Shaheen: When Dion Sims was ruled out on Sunday morning, I tried to think about who would step into his role and Shaheen made a lot of sense as someone the Bears spent a lot of equity to acquire. The Lions have been a much better team against tight ends this year than in years past, allowing just three tight ends to score more than 6.2 PPR points. With the lack of receiving options in Chicago, you’d like to think he’s at least a TE2, but he’s seen just four targets on the year. Keep him on fantasy benches for the time being.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 46.0
Line: MIN by 2.0

QBs
Jared Goff: Coming off back-to-back games where he threw for more than 300 yards and at least three touchdowns, expectations have gone through the roof for the second-year quarterback. This is going to be a test against the Vikings, as they’ve generated plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just three QB1 performances this year, and two of them were because of the quarterback’s rushing ability (Kizer rushed for 18 yards and a touchdown, Cousins ran for two touchdowns). They’ve yet to allow a quarterback throw for more than two touchdowns, taking Goff out of the GPP conversation. In a tougher matchup against Jacksonville back in Week 6, Goff threw for just 124 yards and one touchdown. Not to say that the Vikings are on that level, but they are one of the better pass defenses in the league. Goff is just a middling QB2 this week.

Case Keenum: Who would have thought Keenum would go from someone who was having a legitimate perfect outing in Week 10, to someone who has to worry about getting benched mid-game? After starting out red-hot against the Redskins, Keenum cooled off and almost cost them the game (though they wouldn’t have been where they were without him). The Rams have done a great job against the pass this year, especially over the last five games where they’ve held every quarterback to 14.8 or less fantasy points. They have generated a great pass-rush and rank fourth in the NFL in terms of sacks per opponent dropback, while the Vikings have allowed a sack on just 3.16 percent of dropbacks, the second-lowest number in the league. Something’s got to give and it’s hard to see Keenum coming through with a strong follow-up performance against his old team that likely knows his weaknesses pretty well. He’s just a low-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Todd Gurley: You were warned about Gurley’s matchup last week, as the Texans have been really good against the run and continued their streak to eight games without allowing a rushing touchdown. The good news for Gurley is that the Vikings aren’t as stingy around the goal-line, though they are still very good and have allowed just two rushing scores to running backs on the season. They actually rank No. 1 against fantasy running backs this season, allowing just 12.8 points per game to them, while the next closest team is the Panthers at 13.5 points per game. This game should remain relatively close throughout, meaning Gurley should see upwards towards 20 touches, so he’s an RB1, but it’s another week to have lower exposure in DFS.

Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon: Last week was scary for fantasy owners of McKinnon, as he fell behind Murray on the pecking order, touching the ball just 12 times compared to 17 for Murray. Granted, the game-script kind of called for that, but it’s still good to know it can happen going forward. The Rams have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing five different running backs to accumulate at least 21.8 PPR points against them. On the year, they’ve allowed 4.5 yards per carry and seven rushing scores, which includes games against the Cardinals, Giants, and Texans the last three weeks, all teams that have struggled to run the ball as of late. There have been four teams to run the ball 23 or more times against the Rams and here are their totals: Giants 25/112/0, Jaguars 23/133/1, Cowboys 23/161/1, 49ers 32/104/2, Redskins 36/222/2. Consider McKinnon a solid RB2, while Murray has worked his way into the high-end RB3 conversation.

WRs
Robert Woods: What a signing he’s been, as he’s produced 250 more yards than Sammy Watkins, the receiver they traded a second-round pick for. He’s seen 59 targets on the year, so it’s not like he’s seeing crazy volume, but has remained extremely efficient with his targets. He’s now totaled at least 53 yards in 7-of-9 games, including at least 59 yards in each of the last five games. The four touchdowns over the last two weeks have come out of left field, as he hadn’t scored a single touchdown coming into Week 9. The question now becomes: Will Xavier Rhodes shadow Sammy Watkins or will they just have him stay on one side of the field? Knowing that’s a risk is problematic, as Rhodes is one of the game’s top three cornerbacks. Still, it’s hard to sit Woods with how well he’s played, so consider him a WR3 this week, though there is some risk.

Sammy Watkins: Coming out of the bye week, we would’ve expected more than five targets in two games for Watkins, but he has scored in each of the last two weeks, propping up his fantasy numbers. He’s actually seen five or less targets in all but one game this year, so it’s hard to love him in great matchups, let alone one against a Vikings team that’s allowed just six wide receiver touchdowns this year. Believe it or not, there’s a chance that the Vikings don’t use Xavier Rhodes in shadow coverage, which would obviously benefit him greatly. Still, he’s just a risk/reward WR4 at this point, though the talent remains.

Cooper Kupp: He’s been quiet for a few weeks now, as he’s failed to top 54 yards in each of the last five games and scoring just once. His matchups weren’t the greatest among the wide receivers over the last two weeks, but when you’re seeing at least five targets in 7-of-9 games, you’ll produce. 39-year-old Terence Newman will be tasked with covering him, so don’t shy away from him as a high-floor WR4.

Adam Thielen: We are entering Week 11 of the fantasy football season and Thielen sits as the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver in PPR leagues and No. 5 in standard leagues, despite having just two touchdowns on the season. He’s also done so with Case Keenum as his quarterback, another accomplishment. He’s the only wide receiver in the NFL who has caught at least five passes in every game, showing his consistency to make plays. He’ll match-up with Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot, who has been playing solid football. On the year, he’s yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage and is allowing just 9.7 yards per reception. Thielen is deserving of a WR2 play no matter the matchup right now, but dial back expectations this week against the Rams.

Stefon Diggs: Nobody ties the Rams to a shutdown defensive unit, but they’ve played well as a team against the pass this year, despite opponents being in a position to pass quite often. They have yet to allow a wide receiver to finish in the top-15 for any week, and keep in mind that they’ve played against DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, and Doug Baldwin. Because of that, it’s hard to say Diggs is a WR1, but he’s shown us that he can dominate when healthy. Trumaine Johnson is a bigger cornerback who may have a difficult time hanging with the shifty Diggs, who I like better than Thielen this week. Play him as a high-end WR2 this week.

TEs
Tyler Higbee: After coming off a game against the Giants where he scored his first touchdown of the year, Higbee saw four targets against the Texans, amounting them to just two catches for 22 yards. That’s the line we’ve come to expect from him and the Vikings don’t make you want to play underperforming tight ends, as they’ve allowed just two top-10 performances to tight ends all season. He’s simply not getting enough targets to warrant a spot-start.

Kyle Rudolph: Now that Diggs is back and healthy, Rudolph goes back to the cellar where he’s been for most of the season. He’s seen at least seven targets in each of the last five games, but hasn’t been able to put much up on the fantasy scoreboard, failing to record more than 47 yards in any game this year. Coincidentally, the Rams have allowed just one tight end more than 48 yards on the season, and that was Evan Engram who plays more of a receiver role. Rudolph has turned into a low-end TE1 who doesn’t do much if he doesn’t score. Getting the volume he is, it’s unlikely you have a better option than him on your roster.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

Total: 43.5
Line: ARI by 1.5

QBs
Drew Stanton or Blaine Gabbert: Well this isn’t something you want to hear when talking about your quarterback situation: Stanton and Gabbert sounds more like a law firm than a pair of quarterbacks for whatever reason. The Texans have been a goldmine for opposing quarterbacks lately, allowing four of five quarterbacks at least 21.5 fantasy points. The only quarterback who fell out of that range was spot-starter Kevin Hogan. The Texans have done a fine job against the run, too, so the Cardinals will have to pass to move the ball. Whichever of these two starts, they are worth a look in 2QB leagues, though I couldn’t trust them as a streamer in 1QB leagues.

Tom Savage: I think the Savage experiment looks exactly like we thought it would, right? I mean, two touchdowns in two weeks might actually be better than expected. The Cardinals are not the defense that we knew two years ago, but they’ll stick Patrick Peterson to DeAndre Hopkins, taking away Savage’s No. 1 safety blanket who bails him out all the time. Savage isn’t in the streaming conversation, even if the Cardinals have allowed all but two quarterbacks to score at least 17 fantasy points.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Andre Ellington: Last week was a prime example of why you want a running back who is attached to a high-scoring offense. Even if a running back is struggling to find room, they can get a goal-line carry to make their fantasy day a whole lot better. As mentioned for Todd Gurley last week, the Texans have stopped the run as well as anyone in the league. Through 10 weeks, they have allowed just one rushing touchdown which came back in Week 1 to Leonard Fournette. With that being said, there have been just three running backs who have totaled more than 12 carries against them and their totals were 26/100/1 (Fournette), 29/107/0 (Kareem Hunt), and 17/51/0 (Frank Gore). Knowing that Peterson has had 10 days rest and that the Cardinals should win this game, it keeps him in the solid RB2 conversation. Ellington may not be fully healthy, but he did steal a touchdown last week. He’s better in matchups where the Cardinals fall behind big, which shouldn’t happen here, making him a weak RB4.

Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Miller is a slightly upgraded version of Frank Gore in fantasy football. He’s totaled in between 63 and 96 total yards in 8-of-9 games this year and has scored in just two games. He’s a safe option, but very boring. Against the Cardinals, expect more boring as they have allowed just 3.49 yards per carry on the season and have yet to allow a running back to top 74 yards on the ground against them. There is room for some receiving knowing that Hopkins will see Peterson in shadow coverage, so he remains in the boring RB2 range. Foreman has now totaled 18 carries over the last two games, but has failed to be used in the passing game and hasn’t caught a pass since Week 5. He’s strictly a handcuff to Miller at this point.

WRs
Larry Fitzgerald: Despite how bad the Cardinals have been this year (both offensively and defensively), Fitzgerald has managed to stay among the top-five wide receivers in PPR and top-12 in standard. His 88 targets are the fourth-most in the league, but it’s hard to see that ending any time soon. Slot cornerback Kareem Jackson might be the best cornerback on the Texans at this point, but with the volume Fitzgerald gets, he remains in the low-end WR2 conversation this week. The Texans have been beat downfield the last month, but do the Cardinals quarterbacks have the ability to exploit that? Doubtful.

John Brown/Jaron Brown: Both are in a similar category, as they’re seeing minimal targets, but do have the ability to break a big play, which is where the Texans have struggled. I’d consider John the greater talent and the one I’d rather play, but they’re both just upside WR5 plays.

DeAndre Hopkins: You normally want no part of a wide receiver when he’s covered by Patrick Peterson, but you’re going to deal with it as a Hopkins owner. He’s seen 30 targets in Savage’s two starts and will likely be targeted a bunch because Savage has no one else. Don’t forget that Will Fuller is going to miss this game with a rib injury. On 32 targets in coverage against some of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Peterson has allowed just 12 receptions for 177 yards and no touchdowns. Peterson doesn’t often go into the slot to cover receivers, but Hopkins has only gone there about 15 percent of the time this year. He’s a risky WR2 this week and one that I would avoid in DFS.

Bruce Ellington: I can’t believe we’re typing his name here, but knowing that Fuller is out and Hopkins will deal with Peterson, he’s an option. With Savage under center, he’s seen eight targets in each of the last two weeks, though it’s netted just seven receptions for 63 yards. The Cardinals have struggled to defend slot receivers, just look at the last month and a half. Here are the slot receivers and their performances: Doug Baldwin 5/95/0, Cooper Kupp 4/51/1, Adam Humphries 6/51/0, and Nelson Agholor 4/93/1. Knowing all that, Ellington is in the semi-safe WR4 conversation this week.

TEs
Jermaine Gresham: I looked dumb last week when I said you wouldn’t play Gresham outside of a Giants, Browns, or Redskins matchup. He caught five passes for 64 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the TE2 on the week. I’m still not going to play Gresham when I can help it, as he’s had failed to total more than 32 yards in each of his last five games. He’s now scored in back-to-back games, showing chemistry with Stanton, so it’s possible he receives an upgrade if Stanton plays. The Texans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends, but they’ve also played the toughest slate of tight ends. You can play Gresham in 2TE leagues, but I wouldn’t trust him as a streamer in standard leagues.

C.J. Fiedorowicz: We knew not to play Fiedorowicz coming off the IR last week, but the good news is that he played a team-high 63 snaps at the tight end position and saw a rock-solid five targets. The Cardinals were a team to strictly avoid playing tight ends against last year (and even in 2015), but they have now allowed four top-six performances this year. All of those tight ends saw at least eight targets, something that’s possible for Fiedorowicz while Hopkins deals with Peterson. Consider him a high-end TE2 who can surprise this week.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants

Total: 44.0
Line: KC by 10.5

QBs
Alex Smith: Let’s hope that the bye week didn’t cool Smith down, as he sits as the No. 3 quarterback in all of fantasy football. He’s dominated in great matchups this year, scoring 25.7 or more fantasy points on four separate occasions and will now go against the defense that hasn’t held a quarterback outside of the top-10 since way back in Week 3, including Trevor Siemian and C.J. Beathard. I usually don’t buy into the whole “players quit on the coach” bit, but the evidence is disturbing in this situation. Since the start of Week 4 they’ve allowed 16 passing touchdowns in six games, including four 300-yard games. It’s hard not to call Smith a top-three option this week.

Eli Manning: Coming off their bye week, Andy Reid teams are always prepared, though they likely don’t need to be in this game. His teams are 16-2 coming off bye weeks and oddsmakers tend to agree, favoring them by more than 10 points. Manning was a solid play last week against the 49ers, though he’s hard to completely trust against the Chiefs. Not that they aren’t a good matchup – they are – but the quarterbacks they’ve struggled against include Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins. Those are all quarterbacks on a different level than Manning at this stage, but seeing that 7-of-9 quarterbacks have averaged at least 7.2 yards per attempt is enticing. The game-script should be good, but there’s also the possibility that he gets benched knowing the Giants are waiting to see what they might have in third-round pick Davis Webb. He’s ultra-risky and should be used as a DFS tournament-play only.

RBs
Kareem Hunt: Hopefully the bye week did him wonders because he’s failed to reach 50 rushing yards in three of his last four games and has followed a similar path that Spencer Ware did last season. His six-game streak of not scoring should come to an end, as the Giants are falling apart and have allowed three rushing scores over the last two weeks after allowing just two in the first seven games. They’ve only allowed three RB1 performances on the season, but two of them came to running backs with at least 20 carries, a number that Hunt has hit in three of the last six games. While Charcandrick West has been seeing more and more snaps, it’s been because he’s the preferred option in the passing game. Fortunately, the Chiefs should dominate in this game, meaning Hunt should dominate the snaps and touches. He’s right back in the RB1 conversation this week. I will say that if he doesn’t finish top-12 this week, you should be a bit concerned, though I don’t think that happens.

Orleans Darkwa, Wayne Gallman, and Shane Vereen: While the Giants have completely fallen off the cliff the last two weeks, Darkwa has touched the ball 34 times, while Gallman and Vereen have 12 touches apiece. The important part to note is that Darkwa isn’t very involved in the passing game, which is concerning when we’re projecting them to lose by so much. The Chiefs have allowed a rushing touchdown in four straight games and although the Giants don’t get many scoring opportunities, Darkwa should see the goal-line opportunities. He’s not likely to total more than 50 yards on the ground, but knowing he may get a garbage time touchdown, he’s still in the RB3 conversation. After fumbling in Week 9, Gallman got just three carries in Week 10, leaving him as just a handcuff. Vereen could rack up quite a few receptions in this game, though it’s important to know that no running back has caught more than four passes against the Chiefs and that just one running back has eclipsed 30 receiving yards. Vereen is just a desperation RB4 in PPR leagues.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: The Giants can’t seem to stop a soul right now, as this is what they’ve allowed in their last four games: 3 WR1’s, 3 WR2’s, 3 TE1’s. They have been beat by speed, too, as Sammy Watkins and Marquise Goodwin both caught 60-plus yard touchdowns against them. They have used Janoris Jenkins to shadow opposing No. 1 receivers, but even he looked lost last week and would have trouble covering Hill one-on-one, period. Plug Hill as a WR2 into your fantasy lineups and he might just turn in a WR1 performance.

Demarcus Robinson: After seeing 13 targets in a two-game span, Robinson has seen just three targets over the last two games, making him nothing more than a touchdown-hopeful WR6 against a woeful Giants secondary.

Sterling Shepard: Before returning from injury, I shouted from atop a mountain that you wanted to trade for Shepard, as he would see a minimum of eight targets per game. Well, he’s seen 22 of them in the two games since returning, netting 16 catches for 212 yards. The matchup with the Chiefs is worse than it would’ve been a few weeks ago, as Steven Nelson returned from the IR and he’s the one who lines up against slot receivers. He’s allowed just 8-of-17 passes to be completed against him since returning in Week 8, but did allow two touchdowns in his coverage against Cole Beasley. He only wound up with 24 yards that game, but still. Knowing Shepard will see double digit targets again, you can’t sit him, even if it isn’t the greatest of matchups. He’s a low-end WR2 for this week.

TEs
Travis Kelce: If there were ever a “gimme” in fantasy football, this would be it right? The Giants have allowed a tight end touchdown in every game this season, leading to there being a top-12 tight end on the opponent’s team every single week. Seriously, there have been nine tight ends to finish with double-digit PPR games against them and their competition hasn’t been out of this world, either. Kelce is arguably the top play at tight end this week.

Evan Engram: The Chiefs were always known as the team you didn’t want to play tight ends against, but once Eric Berry went down in Week 1, they haven’t been one to shy away from, allowing at least 63 yards to four different tight ends. Looking at the collection of tight ends they’ve played since then isn’t anything that would warrant concern about Engram. The only other tight end they played who is near his level since losing Berry was Zach Ertz, who wound up with five catches for 97 yards. Engram is an every-week TE1.