Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

Total: 51.0
Line: NO by 7.5
QBs
Kirk Cousins: It’s funny that when you look at the schedule and see (vs. NO) in a quarterback’s matchup, you automatically assume that it’s going to be a good day. I get it, it’s been that way for so long. But here’s the thing – the Saints defense is different. They haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 164 yards since back in Week 6. Outside of that Lions game where they were up over 30 points and Matthew Stafford threw three touchdowns in what was garbage time, they have allowed two touchdown passes since Week 2. The best part about Cousins, though, is that he will run the ball. The Saints have allowed four quarterbacks rush for 27 or more yards, including two rushing touchdowns to them. This game has one of the highest totals of the week and it’s very possible that the Saints jump out to an early lead. I mean, it’s not like the Redskins have a run game anyway. This matchup isn’t as good as you thought it’d be, but I’d still play Cousins as a low-end QB1.

Drew Brees: Call me crazy, but I haven’t given up on Brees yet. He’s completed 72 percent of his passes, the highest mark of his career. He’s throwing for 8.0 yards per attempt, the third-highest mark of his career. Is he throwing the ball less? Sure, but his touchdown rate is what’s lacking and that’s due to the ground game’s success. They’ve now scored 10 rushing touchdowns in the last five games, while throwing just five touchdowns in that span. I’m not saying the ground game is going to fall off, but it’s going to regress, whereas Brees is going to pick up that slack. The Redskins have now allowed three top-six performances in their last four games, and the only game they didn’t was when Dak Prescott didn’t need to throw the ball because Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Not to say Brees’ run game can’t do that, but I’m betting on Brees at home to get back into the top-tier of QB1’s this week.

RBs
Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson: This run game has been awful all season long, averaging just 3.62 yards per carry despite the quarterback taking pressure off them. Rob Kelley is going to miss a few weeks, leaving Perine as the primary 1-2 down back, though he’s struggled in that role this year. In the two games he received the majority of carries, he totaled 21/67/0 and 19/49/0 against two of the worst run defenses in the league – the Rams and Raiders. The Saints aren’t a great run defense, but they aren’t bad, either. Over the last two weeks, they’ve held Doug Martin and LeSean McCoy to less than 10 PPR points, showing how far they’ve come. They have allowed three 100-yard rushing games, but all of them came to running backs with at least 17 carries against them, a number I doubt Perine hits. McCoy and Martin both totaled just eight carries. Perine is just a low-end RB3 this week until he shows us that he can succeed on the NFL level. Thompson is the best bet for success, as the Saints have allowed the sixth-most yardage (52.1/game) through the air to running backs this year. Once Kelley went down last week, they did give Thompson his second-highest carry total of the season (9), making him a solid RB2 in all formats.

Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara: I wonder if Ingram heard me last week when I said that Kamara had outscored him in both standard and PPR leagues. I’m kidding, obviously. His three-touchdown performance against the Bills was the 4th-best standard game and the 11th-best game in PPR for a running back this year. His week somewhat overshadowed Kamara’s 138-yard, one-touchdown performance, as he’s now got back-to-back 24-plus point PPR games. We saw it towards the end of 2016, that there can be two Saints running backs who are fantasy relevant and startable every week, though two RB1’s is pushing the envelope. As mentioned in the Brees paragraph, these two cannot continue at this pace and will see some touchdown regression. The Redskins have allowed three running backs to eclipse 24 PPR points against them, though all three were workhorses on their team (Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde). Let’s be honest, you’re starting both of them as RB1’s, but understand that touchdown regression is a real thing. Fortunately for Kamara, he can catch some of the touchdown passes that Brees is about to throw.

WRs
Josh Doctson: What you see on paper for Doctson last week was a four-catch, 30-yard performance, but there’s more to it than that. He played a career-high 92 percent of the snaps, saw a career-high seven targets, and should have scored an easy touchdown, but he tripped when Cousins targeted him with nobody within two yards of him. These are all positive things, but Marshon Lattimore awaits him in coverage this week. He’s allowed just over a 50 percent catch rate in coverage and has yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage. Keep in mind that he’s being asked to cover opposing No. 1 wide receivers and has limited Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin to a combined four catches for 55 scoreless yards the last two weeks. Doctson is trending upward and also has first-round talent like Lattimore, so he remains on the high-end WR4 radar this week.

Jamison Crowder: This is the biggest mismatch on the field for the Saints, as they’ll ask converted-safety Kenny Vaccaro to come down into the slot to cover the shifty Crowder. In his last two games played, Crowder has totaled 24 targets, 13 receptions, and 199 yards. He should have had a touchdown last week, but Cousins threw the ball too far to the sideline and Crowder’s momentum pulled him out of bounds with no defender within five yards of him. It was a 36-yard gain but could’ve been much more. Whatever the case, Crowder is a great play this week and belongs in the WR2 conversation for PPR formats and high-end WR3 in standard leagues.

Michael Thomas: If there were a picture next to the words ‘positive regression,’ Brees and Thomas would be it. There will be a lot of fantasy owners worried about Josh Norman this week, but know that he doesn’t shadow. Instead, he stays on the left side of the defensive formation, where Thomas has played just 37 percent of his snaps. The Redskins have allowed just four top-16 performances to wide receivers this year and all of them have come to slot receivers. Thomas isn’t a “slot-only” wide receiver, so that’s concerning, but he does travel into the slot about 22 percent of the time. Thomas needs to be in lineups as a WR1, regardless.

Ted Ginn: It was the first “down” week for Ginn in a while, as he had a stretch of four games with at least 59 yards before posting just three yards against the Bills. The Saints are back at home in the dome, which helps, but knowing the Redskins haven’t struggled with perimeter receivers is concerning. He’s always just one big play away from hitting value, but knowing he’ll see Norman the most, Ginn is just a high-risk/high-reward WR4.

Willie Snead: I said last week that it was possible we see Snead pass up Brandon Coleman in snaps and it happened (36 to 29), though Coleman was targeted three times while Snead wasn’t targeted. We want to see Snead perform before putting him in season-long lineups, but knowing how much the Redskins have struggled with slot receivers, Snead is an interesting tournament play in DFS this week. You can argue that Coleman should be here, but with the way snaps have been trending, Snead will be a full-time player, maybe as soon as this week.

TEs
Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed: The difficult part about doing The Primer is that we don’t have a whole lot of information on Wednesday, which is when I’m doing this particular game. Because of that, it’s hard to recommend Reed, knowing he’s missed the last two weeks and could get re-injured at any time. The Saints have been one of the best teams in the NFL against tight ends this year, allowing just one of them to total more than 29 yards and that was Rob Gronkowski. Outside of him, every tight end has totaled three catches or less and 29 yards or less, though three of them have scored. If Reed is out, you have to play Davis regardless, as he’s a target magnet. If Reed plays, it gets a little sticky, though he would enter the TE1 conversation as someone who comes with plenty of risk, but also plenty of upside. Davis would still be in the TE2 conversation, even if Reed does play.

Coby Fleener: He’s played 22 or less snaps in each of the last five games. It can be argued that Josh Hill is the tight end who you should start for the Saints. It really stinks, too, because the Redskins have been one of the most giving teams to tight ends this year, allowing 662 yards (2nd-most) and five touchdowns (6th-most) to them. There has actually been no starting tight end to finish with less than three catches and 31 yards against them, something Fleener hasn’t done since Week 2. Even in what’s a GREAT matchup, Fleener cannot be trusted. Maybe if you’re setting a lot of DFS lineups, stick him in one or two of them.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 43.5
Line: LAC by 4.5

QBs
Tyrod Taylor: (EDIT: I’m leaving this here because it highlights my thoughts) Head coach Sean McDermott came out after last week’s game and addressed fans who are calling for Nathan Peterman to start, and said “I can understand why they’d want that.” Um, what? Taylor has been the model quarterback for a team who wanted to run the ball and thrown efficiently. Knowing that he’s being used as a scapegoat is ridiculous, but it does add a layer of concern. The Chargers have been kind of a ‘bend but don’t break’ defense this year, allowing just one quarterback to total more than 17.5 fantasy points and that was Trevor Siemian way back in Week 1. The only mobile quarterback they’ve played this year was Alex Smith, who only threw the ball 21 times for 155 yards and two touchdowns, while running for nine yards. Taylor has the looks of a high-end, high-floor QB2 in this game.

Nathan Peterman: After reading what I wrote about Taylor, you shouldn’t have to wonder on whether or not to start Peterman, as he’s a pocket passer who offers nothing with his legs. Taylor was able to buy time with his legs behind this offensive line that has underperformed all year. Peterman should not be considered in fantasy leagues.

Philip Rivers: As of this moment, we don’t know if Rivers is going to play. He came to the team facility on Monday with concussion symptoms and has been placed in the league’s protocol. We’ll approach this as if he’s going to play, because if he were to miss the game, you don’t need to worry about Kellen Clemens, his backup. Since the Bills bye week, they have allowed 27 points to the Bucs, 34 points to the Jets, and 47 points to the Saints. That’s three of their last four games they’ve played, looking more and more like the defense we all thought they were heading into the season. The only concern is that they’ve allowed just two passing touchdowns in the last three games and not because their pass defense has been lights out. It’s because they’ve allowed ten rushing touchdowns in those three games, including six to the Saints last week. No, that’s not a typo. Knowing Rivers will have limited time in the practice sessions, he’s just a QB2 this week, though I’d play him over most in that conversation.

RBs
LeSean McCoy: Similar to C.J. Anderson, McCoy has been subjected to some awful coaching this year that has given him 12 carries or less on three different occasions, including each of the last two games. Because of that, McCoy has totaled just 85 total yards over the last two weeks combined. After starting the season as a doormat for opposing run games, the Chargers have righted the ship over the last three weeks. If you remove the Jaguars fake punt that ended in a 56-yard touchdown last week, the Chargers have allowed just 192 rushing yards on 68 carries (2.82 YPC) over the last three games, including a shutdown of Leonard Fournette in Week 10. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs, however, an area that McCoy can excel if given the opportunity. Because of that, McCoy should be in the conversation as a lower-owned tournament option in DFS this week. You’re starting him in season-long leagues as an RB1, though he may not have the floor that he should.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: There are going to be a lot of fantasy owners trotting Ekeler out in fantasy lineups and while the matchup is fantastic, you need to tread lightly. Last week was the first one he totaled more than seven touches while Gordon played the full game. Not that he shouldn’t be considered, but Gordon is going to be the one getting the most valuable touches – the goal line touches. Knowing that the Bills have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks says a lot, as there is not a single team in the league who has allowed more than that on the entire season. While I’ve been worried about Gordon and what was described as turf-toe, this matchup is too juicy not to like him as an RB1. In their last three games, they have allowed four top-six fantasy running backs, including DeAndre Washington (who was filling in for Marshawn Lynch), Matt Forte, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara. There are just six running backs with more red zone carries than Gordon on the season. Ekeler can be considered as an RB4 who comes with plenty of risk. Gordon still out-snapped him 47 to 23 in Week 10, despite the production gap.

WRs
Kelvin Benjamin: You were warned about Benjamin with Taylor, right? If you own Benjamin, you should be celebrating Peterman’s promotion, as he is someone who appears to be willing to throw it into tight coverage. Two of Benjamin’s three catches in Week 10 came in garbage time with Peterman under center. He’ll see Jason Verrett in coverage this week, another tough challenge for a wide receiver who doesn’t gain much separation and relies on the jump ball. On the season, Hayward has allowed just a 51 percent catch rate, though he has gotten beat deep at times while allowing 15.8 yards per reception, though Benjamin can’t beat anyone over the top with his speed. He’s just a touchdown-dependent WR3 in this game.

Jordan Matthews: He was struggling to get targets before Benjamin came to town and just saw two targets in a game they were losing throughout. He hasn’t topped 46 yards since way back in Week 3 and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4. Matthews would probably love to be back in Philadelphia at this point. He’s a waiver wire guy.

Keenan Allen: Prior to the season starting, I talked about my concerns with Allen being on a team with so many weapons. If you never saw my chart this offseason highlighting what Allen does in games he sees less than 10 targets (that’s a lot), here you go:

After seeing that, you’re likely to wonder “will Allen see 10 targets in this game?” With Mike Williams starting to see more snaps, it’s unlikely. Allen has failed to hit the 10 target mark since way back in Week 5 and hasn’t scored since back in Week 1. Leonard Johnson covers the slot for the Bills and has still yet to allow a touchdown, though he is allowing a 71 percent catch rate in his coverage. If Rivers plays, consider Allen a high-end WR3 in both standard and PPR formats who is overdue for a touchdown, regardless of how bad he is without massive volume.

Tyrell Williams: A candidate for biggest mid-round receiver bust of the year, Williams has been absent over the last two months outside of one game against the Eagles. Outside of that 115-yard, one touchdown performance against the Eagles (one play made up 75 yards), Williams has just 256 yards and no touchdowns remaining eight games this season. He belongs on waiver wires and is going to start losing some targets to Mike Williams, who played a season-high 27 snaps in Week 10. He’s always got a shot to score a long touchdown, but that can be said about a lot of players. He’s just a punt-play WR5 who is in a decent matchup.

Mike Williams/Travis Benjamin: They are both playing snaps right now, but Benjamin is starting to fade away. He’s seen three or less targets in four of the last five weeks, not a number you can rely on production from. Williams is trending in the right direction with a season-high 27 snaps in Week 10, but until we see him playing more than 50 percent of the snaps, he’s just a touchdown-hopeful.

TEs
Charles Clay: Most are likely wondering whether or not Clay played a lot in Week 10, seeing as he only garnered three targets that amounted to just two catches for 13 yards. He played 60 percent of the snaps, which is a bit off his usual 80 percent, but without a setback, he should be ready to rock against the Chargers this week. They haven’t been a defense to target for tight ends, as they’ve held both Travis Kelce and Evan Engram to a combined one catch for one yard. The only tight ends to score double digits against them in PPR formats have been those who saw seven or more targets. Clay hit that number just twice this season, so don’t go out of your way to play Clay in this matchup, but he’s definitely on the TE2 radar after we saw him play a healthy number of snaps last week. Know that the move to Peterman likely negatively impacts Clay, as he was the only one Taylor had a prior relationship with on the offense.

Hunter Henry: Just when I started to trust Henry as a top-five tight end the rest of the season, he goes and posts three catches for 18 yards in his last two games combined. The Chargers have been working to get Mike Williams onto the field, which has translated to less 2TE sets, leaving Henry down at the 60-65 percent of snaps mark instead of the 75-85 percent in the three prior weeks. Outside of one game against the Bucs where they allowed O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate 158 yards and two touchdowns, the Bills haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown. That’s not ideal, but if there’s a tight end duo that compares to the Bucs, it’s Henry and Antonio Gates (though Gates drags them down). Henry comes with more risk than you’d like, but he still fits into the low-end TE1 conversation because of Rivers’ history with tight ends.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

Total: 40.0
Line: DEN by 2.5

QBs
Andy Dalton: This isn’t quite the daunting matchup that we thought it’d be when looking at the schedule back in August, but Dalton still has some things to worry about. His offensive line is in shambles and have allowed him to be sacked on 7.8 percent of his dropbacks this season, which ranks inside the bottom 10. For as bad as the Broncos defense has been, they’ve still been able to generate pressure, sacking the opponent 8.0 percent of the time, ninth-highest percentage in the league. Because of that, there is concern with using him as a streamer on the road. Looking at the last two weeks where they allowed 20-point games, those came to Tom Brady and Carson Wentz, maybe the two hottest quarterbacks in the league. Brady was actually the first quarterback who threw for more than 238 yards against them. With that being said, the Broncos have allowed multiple touchdowns in 6-of-9 games this year, making Dalton a middling QB2 who is likely to fall out of QB1 range even if he throws two touchdowns.

Brock Osweiler: He’s getting another start this week, though it’s not advisable to play him. The Bengals have not been as good of a defense since their bye week, allowing each of the four quarterbacks to total at least 15.9 fantasy points, including Blake Bortles in Week 9. Because of that, Osweiler is on the QB2 radar, though he doesn’t offer too much upside, as Aaron Rodgers was the only one to score more than 17 fantasy points against them. Expect somewhere in the range of 13-16 fantasy points.

RBs
Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard: Once Jeremy Hill was placed on IR, it should have given Mixon owners more confidence when inserting him into lineups. The issue is that Hill’s been out the last two weeks and Mixon has totaled 26 touches in those games combined. Not that he isn’t getting the majority of touches, because he has, but the Bengals haven’t had many offensive snaps the last two weeks. The Broncos have been dominant against the run outside of one game this year (Eagles), allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. They have, however, allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs, the most in the league. Mixon and Bernard are sharing the passing down work, so it’s hard to pinpoint whether or not Bernard has value this week, though Mixon should be played as a low-end RB2 because of the percentage of team touches he sees with Hill out. Bernard should have desperation RB4 value in PPR leagues. It’s possible that the Broncos defense has gone full-on New York Giants, but I don’t think that’s the case. It is odd that five of the 10 biggest PPR games they’ve allowed to running backs have come in the last two weeks.

C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker, and Jamaal Charles: To those out there who are saying that Anderson isn’t very good (looking at you, Mr. Sylvester), he’s averaged at least four yards per carry in all but two of his games (NYG, PHI) this year. This comes down to coaching incompetence and their unwillingness to give him more than 10 carries in five of their last seven games. The addition of Charles hurt slightly, but once Booker came back, it buried his usage in both the run game and the passing game. Sure, DeMarco Murray scored three times against them last week, but they’d allowed just three total running back touchdowns coming into that game. Linebacker Vontaze Burfict was also kicked from that game early-on, though he won’t be suspended. Of the 10 running backs who have hit double-digit PPR days against the Bengals, all but one of them caught at least three passes and 15 yards, numbers that Anderson has hit twice this year. Anderson is just a low-end RB3 because of the limited usage and not the talent, while Booker is an RB4, and Charles belongs on waiver wires.

WRs
A.J. Green: It got a bit worrisome last week when watching Brandon LaFell going off in the first half, but Green ultimately came through like we thought he would. The Broncos have been a matchup to avoid in the past, but they’ve been exploitable with enough volume this year. Of the four wide receivers who have seen at least 10 targets against them have finished with at least 7.4 standard points or 13.4 PPR points. Knowing how much they’ll struggle to run the ball on the Broncos front-seven, Green should reach that 10-target mark, making him at least a low-end WR1 this week.

Brandon LaFell: I knew there would be some readers coming to see what I thought about LaFell, who went off last week, so I stuck him in here. Of the wide receivers who have finished top-36 against the Broncos, they all saw at least 10 targets, or they are fast as hell (Travis Benjamin, Johnny Holton). LaFell fits neither of these categories and should be nowhere near your fantasy lineup this week. I’d rather take a shot on John Ross catching a bomb.

Demaryius Thomas: Who would have thought that all we needed for Thomas to start scoring again is to give Osweiler the starting gig? After going 13 games without a touchdown, Thomas has now scored in back-to-back games. He’s also seen 20 targets in those games, hauling in 13 of them for 114 yards, living in strong WR2 territory. The Bengals duo of Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones has struggled as of late, allowing Marqise Lee 75 yards and a touchdown, and while the stat sheet says 4/48/0 for Corey Davis, it should read 4/50/1, but a fumble into the end zone killed that. Thomas had one of his best games of the year against the Bengals last year, totaling six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown with Siemian under center. You’ve got to play Thomas as a WR2 with the volume he’s been getting, and you feel a bit safer about it knowing that Jones and Kirkpatrick have struggled as of late.

Emmanuel Sanders: Well, I guess he’s healthy, eh? After playing just 45 percent of the snaps in Week 9, Sanders was on the field for 87 percent of the snaps against the Patriots, beating Malcolm Butler all over the field for 137 yards. Knowing he’s healthy, you can push him out there as a high-end WR3 against the Bengals for similar reasons mentioned with Thomas. Osweiler has targeted them both relentlessly.

TEs
Tyler Kroft: One of the sneaky plays at the tight end position, Kroft will play a Broncos defense that’s been demolished by opposing tight ends, allowing all but two starting tight ends to finish outside TE1 range (none in the last five games). Kroft has seen an average of 4.9 targets per game since taking over the starter, which is solid volume for a tight end, especially against the Broncos. They have allowed five different tight ends to accumulate at least 73 yards and then three others to score a touchdown, meaning they’re allowing points in multiple ways. He’s on the TE1 radar and is a great streamer to use in both season-long and DFS.

A.J. Derby/Virgil Green: Knowing that Derby may not play and that Green isn’t starter-material on an NFL team, this is a tight end timeshare to avoid. The Bengals haven’t been an extremely giving team to tight ends this year outside of one game to Jack Doyle. If any of these tight ends go off, I’ll be able to live with the fact that I didn’t play them.

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (In Mexico City)

Total: 50.0
Line: NE by 5.5

QBs
Tom Brady: This seems to be one of those games where Brady and Gronk are going to go bananas, though we hope that Gronk can hold off partying in Mexico until after the game. The Raiders have been brutal against the pass all season and will now be without their first-round pick Gareon Conley. He was hurt most of the year anyway, but it still doesn’t help a defense that’s allowed 7-of-9 quarterbacks to finish as the QB13 or better. The only two quarterbacks who failed to post QB1-type numbers were Trevor Siemian and Joe Flacco… mmhmm. Three quarterbacks have been able to throw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns, while two of them came their last three games. Knowing that the Raiders lack any sort of pass-rush, Brady should go bananas in this contest.

Derek Carr: Knowing how this game-script should go, there should be plenty of attempts for Carr. Three quarterbacks have hit the 45-attempt mark against them and Carr’s attempts have already started to come up prior to this game. After not throwing the ball more than 32 times in the first six weeks, Carr has now hit totals of 49 and 52 pass attempts over the last three games. Coupling that with the fact that the Patriots have allowed 8-of-9 quarterbacks at least 7.1 yards per attempt (Osweiler averaged 6.7 on Monday night) and you’re looking at what should be a 300-yard game. Carr is a solid QB1 for this game and makes for a great DFS play. When he played in Mexico last year, he threw the ball just 31 times for 295 yards and three touchdowns.

RBs
Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, James White, and Mike Gillislee: That’s more running backs than will likely be active on gameday, but there will be questions on every one of them except Gillislee, who was inactive for last week’s game. Opponents have been destroying the Raiders on the ground, averaging a solid 4.3 yards per carry, but the real story is the volume they face seemingly on a weekly basis. Opponents average nearly 29 rushing attempts per game against them, which is why there have been six running backs accumulate 18 or more carries against them. Lewis is the primary 1-2 down back who is not being used in the passing game, while White has apparently been overtaken by Burkhead on the pecking order. Here are White’s snaps by week, starting in Week 4: 43, 35, 29, 23, 20, 11. That’s trending to inactive, though I don’t really think that will happen. This is the Patriots backfield, so it shouldn’t shock anyone to see Gillislee active and score this week, but the most realistic scenario is that Lewis is a solid RB2, while Burkhead is a high-end RB3, and White is a dicey flex. Should Gillislee be active, he’s just a touchdown-hopeful RB5.

Marshawn Lynch, DeAndre Washington, and Jalen Richard: Another backfield that’s hard to predict from week-to-week, though Lynch looked extremely good the last time the Raiders took the field, though that was against the Dolphins. The touch distribution through nine games looks like this: Lynch 92, Richard 62, Washington 56. Knowing that this game is likely to turn into a shootout, Lynch is going to be a touchdown-dependent RB2 who is likely to get his chances against a Patriots team that’s played weak competition as of late, propping up their overall defensive numbers. Losing D’Onta Hightower for the year hurts their run defense quite a bit. Washington and Richard are in the same conversation as players who would benefit from the Patriots jumping out to an early lead, racking up the receptions. Consider them both better plays than usual, but they can’t be trusted as anything more than RB4’s.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: It’s been an up-and-down year for Cooks, though he’s been more consistent than most would have envisioned, totaling at least 65 yards in 6-of-9 games this year. The area he’s been lacking is the touchdowns, as he’s scored in just two games this year, the same as Lamar Miller. Yuck. That should change against the Raiders this week, who have allowed two 100-yard games though no wide receiver has seen more than 10 targets. The reason they rank in the top half of the league against fantasy wide receivers is because wide receivers have only averaged 17.3 targets as a team against them. If you look at them on a point per target basis, they are bottom-10. Cooks should have no issues finding holes en route to a WR1-type game.

Chris Hogan: It’s not likely that we see Hogan in Week 11, as the Patriots wide receiver missed practice all of last week and knowing that the Patriots stayed in Denver all week before traveling to Mexico, it’s unlikely that his treatment would’ve been on the same schedule if this game were in the states. Odd, I know, but this is all we know. He’s in play as a WR2 if he’s active, though I’d make other plans until we see him get in a full practice.

Danny Amendola: We knew he had a tough matchup last week with Chris Harris Jr., and his matchup this week is better, though not great. T.J. Carrie has defended the slot for the Raiders and he’s done a great job, allowing just 8.7 yards per reception and one touchdown in his coverage over 53 targets. Here are the last few decent slot receivers to go against him: Jarvis Landry 6/32/1, Jordan Matthews 3/21/0, Keenan Allen 5/45/0, Jeremy Maclin 6/43/0. As you can see, it’s not ideal if he doesn’t score. Consider him a WR4 for this game.

Michael Crabtree: It’s going to be interesting to see how Bill Belichick handles the Raiders wide receivers, as he chose to have Stephon Gilmore cover Demaryius Thomas last week while Malcolm Butler “covered” Emmanuel Sanders. But the truth is that neither Butler or Gilmore has been great in coverage this year, as both are allowing greater than a 62 percent catch rate and 13.2 yards per reception. They’ve also combined to allow six touchdowns in their coverage. There are five teams who have yet to allow six touchdowns to wide receivers. Crabtree should be played as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 with confidence.

Amari Cooper: As mentioned in the Crabtree paragraph above, it’s going to be interesting to see if Belichick gives Cooper the No. 1 treatment or if he gives it to the veteran Crabtree. Knowing that Carr is likely to throw the ball 40-plus times, I think both Cooper and Crabtree are solid options, though Cooper comes with the higher ceiling and lower floor. Through nine games, the Patriots have allowed 17 different wide receivers to finish top-32 this year, so you should feel confident putting Cooper in lineups as a risk/reward WR1 with massive upside in this contest. When they played against the Texans in Mexico last year, Cooper posted 57 yards and a touchdown.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski: While everyone is playing Travis Kelce this week, my money is on Gronkowski to finish as the TE1 on the slate. There have been three tight ends to finish outside the top-eight against the Raiders this year and their names are Ben Watson, Nick O’Leary, and Will Tye. What might be even more impressive is the list of tight ends who finished top-five against the Raiders: Julius Thomas (TE2), A.J. Derby (TE4), and Vernon Davis (TE5). Knowing that Gronkowski is coming off an “off game” where he totaled just four catches for 74 yards, I’m expecting at least 85 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders.

Jared Cook: After failing to top 56 yards in any of their first six games, Cook has now totaled at least 57 yards in each of the last three games, including two games with more than 100 yards. He and Travis Kelce are the only two tight ends with more than one 100-yard game. The Patriots are a great team to be going against while on a hot-streak, too, as they have quietly been one of the better matchups for tight ends this year. There have been three tight ends to finish top-five against them this season, a list that includes Ryan Griffin, Cameron Brate, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. With Belichick occupied trying to figure out how to slow the Raiders wide receivers, Cook may go under the radar. He makes for a solid low-end TE1 in a game that should have plenty of fireworks.