As most of you know, I’ve been sick and was forced to miss one of our podcasts last week. I’m the type who usually puts off going to the doctor, but after nearly two weeks of just falling to the floor from exhaustion, my wife convinced me to go and see the doctor. Needless to say, they told me there was a reason for my tiredness and continued headaches. Mono. I’d heard of it before, but never thought I’d have to worry about how to handle it.
Rest, they said. Gets lots and lots of rest. I don’t think my doctor realizes what time of the year this is for me… for you… for us. After hearing that mono can last anywhere from three weeks to three months, I’ve come to a crossroads. Take a week off to rest up and hope it helps, or continue to try and work through it to deliver you guys the content you’ve come to expect from me. And let me begin by saying that I know sitting at a computer doesn’t seem like hard work. Heck, I would’ve said that myself a long time ago. But when you’re arms, legs, back, and everything else attached to your body feels like stopping, so does your mind. Because of that, I’ve come to a compromise that I feel (or hope) can work for the both of us.
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This edition of The Primer will be different than the rest, but because I don’t want to let you down, I wanted to get something together. We’ll be touching on every fantasy relevant player from every game, just in condensed form. And hopefully, if the rest I gain because of this allows me to feel better, we’ll be able to go back to the way we all prefer it, in long-form. Instead of taking any more time on this intro (real smart, Mike), let’s get into the games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Total: 50.0
Line: NO by 7.0
QBs
Jameis Winston: After looking like a different quarterback in Week 7, Winston went back to his old ways in Week 8. Storm or not, he made some bad decisions that negatively affected his team and it’s only a matter of time before they start running the ball again. After allowing six passing scores in their first two games, the Saints have allowed just three passing touchdowns in their last five games. In a game that has shootout potential in the SuperDome, it’s hard not to like him as at least a high-end QB2, though. He’s someone who is the ultimate tournament play because of the risk he comes with.
Drew Brees: He’s thrown just one touchdown pass in the last two games combined, but has played very good football. The numbers will follow, and the Bucs have been among the league’s worst defenses this year, allowing 30 or more points to three of the teams they’ve played. If the Bucs don’t get back their cornerbacks they were missing last week, this could get ugly. He’s a high-end QB1 regardless.
RBs
Doug Martin: One of the best buy-lows in all of football, Martin will see 18-plus touches against a Saints defense that’s now allowed back-to-back 100-yard games to Aaron Jones and Jordan Howard. With how much Winston is pressing, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see the Bucs employ a run-heavy gameplan against the Saints. If you own Martin, plug him into your lineup as an RB1.
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara: In the three games without Adrian Peterson, Ingram has totaled 294 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, including another 15 catches for 65 yards. The issue? He lost two fumbles last week. We know the history there and it wasn’t a great scene on the sideline with him and Sean Payton this weekend, either. There may be some sort of punishment, making him a risky cash-game play. Consider him a somewhat risky RB2 this week against a Bucs defense that’s been struggling as of late, allowing five rushing touchdowns in their last three games. Kamara has now seen at least 11 touches in each of the last four games, and has scored at least 11.7 PPR points in each of the last five games. It shouldn’t shock you to see him in a bigger role against the Bucs, making him a strong RB2 in fantasy lineups.
WRs
Mike Evans: The entire offense struggled against the Panthers last week and Evans will now have to match-up with rookie Marshon Lattimore, who has yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage. It will limit the potential ceiling for Evans, but if they trust him one-on-one with Evans, the veteran will get his production. I’m not ever sitting Evans in season-long leagues.
DeSean Jackson: On the live show we do Sunday mornings, I talked about Jackson and how not only would Winston’s shoulder affect him the most, but so would the weather. Playing in a dome is great news for Jackson, as it highlights his speed. He’s played 30 games on turf in his career, averaging 83.9 yards compared to his 65.1 yards on grass. He’ll get Ken Crawley in coverage, someone who’s been on many highlight reels. Jackson has seen at least six targets in every game, giving him a solid floor as a WR3 with 20-point upside.
Adam Humphries: With bye weeks in full-effect, Humphries makes for a decent WR4/5 option in PPR leagues this week. He’s now seen at least six targets in four of the last six games, totaling 51 or more yards in four of them. He’ll match-up with Kenny Vaccaro in the slot, their least talented cornerback.
Michael Thomas: Just like Brees, the touchdowns will follow his great play, as he’s now totaled at least 77 yards in five of the last six games. The Bucs don’t have a shadow cornerback, so the Saints can line up Thomas anywhere they want. They’ve allowed three top-10 performances to wide receivers in their last six games. He’s a weekly WR1.
Ted Ginn: Who would’ve thought Ginn would get better as Willie Snead got healthier? His three highest yardage totals have come in the last three weeks, though his numbers won’t stay as consistent with him averaging just over four targets per game. Something to note, though, is that the Bucs have allowed 11 top-24 performances this year, the most in the NFL, and they’ve already had their bye week. Ginn is an upside WR3.
Willie Snead: Played just four snaps in Week 8, making him a non-factor in fantasy leagues right now. We want to see him play a full complement of snaps before trusting him.
TEs
Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard: Yes, Howard is still playing more snaps than Brate. No, he’s not the better fantasy option. Brate has more than twice the targets and has now totaled at least 60 yards in each of the last five games. The Saints haven’t been a giving defense to the tight end position outside of Rob Gronkowski and Brate totaled just five catches for 59 yards and one touchdown in the two games combined between these two teams last year. With his consistency, I’d still trot him out there as a low-end TE1. Howard is nothing more than a low-owned tournament hopeful.
Coby Fleener: Literally has zero fantasy relevance. Played just 16 snaps in Week 8 behind Josh Hill. On top of that, he’s now seen just 10 targets in the last five games combined. If you’re chasing a Saints tight end, Hill is the better bet at this time.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Total: 43.5
Line: CAR by 2.0
QBs
Matt Ryan: Outside of his two fumbles on snaps last week, Ryan played a really good game. He should’ve had three passing scores, but Austin Hooper let one go right through his hands. Prior to holding Mitch Trubisky and Jameis Winston to 317 yards and no touchdowns combined, the Panthers had allowed at least 17 fantasy points to four straight quarterbacks. In two games against them last year, Ryan totaled 503/4 at home and 277/2 on the road, two QB1-type performances. Consider Ryan a low-end QB1 for this game knowing that the Panthers allow absolutely nothing on the ground.
Cam Newton: You never feel safe putting Newton in your lineup, even when the Bucs are missing their top two cornerbacks. It’s sad, too, because Newton is running the ball again. He’s totaled at least 44 yards on the ground in four of the last five games, which is an additional passing touchdown. After allowing five touchdowns in their first four games, the Falcons have allowed six touchdowns in their three games since their bye week. Newton failed to throw for 200 yards in both of their games last year against the Falcons, making him just a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 with his rushing numbers propping him up. Understand that he’s among the streakiest quarterbacks in the game who can win you a tournament, but with the way he’s passing right now, I wouldn’t bank on it. Losing his massive target in Kelvin Benjamin also doesn’t help matters.
RBs
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: It was the first time all year where Coleman out-touched Freeman, but don’t expect it to happen again. The shifty Freeman was having no luck getting his feet planted on the slippery field and Coleman is the more north-south runner. It is concerning that Freeman hasn’t topped 12 carries since before their bye in Week 4, but it’ll get better for him… though not likely this week. The Panthers have yet to allow a running back more than 15 PPR points this season. In fact, they haven’t allowed more than 9.3 points since way back in Week 4. You’re playing Freeman in season-long leagues, but he’s more of a high-end RB2 this week than the RB1 you drafted him as. Both he and Coleman share the receiving duties, which is where the damage will need to be done. Consider Coleman a risky RB3.
Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart: What do you say about a duo that is averaging 2.80 yards per carry on the season with one touchdown on 159 carries? The Falcons have allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the year, but McCaffrey should have a chance to shine in the passing game, as the Falcons have already allowed 395 receiving yards to the running back position, fifth-most in the league. He’s yet to see less than five targets in any one game and is averaging 8.3 per game, which is more than almost all wide receivers. Consider McCaffrey a low-end RB2 in standard leagues but a high-end RB2 in PPR formats. Stewart is always going to be a touchdown-or-bust option, though this matchup doesn’t appear to be one where he should score. He’s just an RB4.
WRs
Julio Jones: The aforementioned McCaffrey has 10 more targets than Jones does on the season. Talk about priorities. A week after saying they needed to get Jones the ball, the Falcons went back to their old ways and targeted him just six times against the Jets. If you recall, this is the defense Jones crushed for 300 yards last year, though James Bradberry did get hurt in that game. He hasn’t been as good in his second year and considering the Falcons might have trouble running the ball, you should bet on Jones getting heavy targets in this one, making him a WR1.
Mohamed Sanu: He’s taken advantage of good matchups, though this one isn’t great. Captain Munnerlyn has shown the ability to shut down opposing slot wide receivers, though he has had hiccups at times. Seeing there’s been no games where Sanu has played the entire game and seen fewer than six targets, he’s still on the radar as a WR4, though not a great one.
Taylor Gabriel: He’s seen just three targets the last two games and is being phased out of the offense. Sure, he can catch a long pass for a touchdown, but there’s plenty of guys you can say the same about. Until he starts seeing consistent targets, Gabriel is just a long-play hopeful WR5/6-option.
Devin Funchess: What a headache. If you own Funchess, it might be wise to see what you can sell him for, because regardless of how great his matchup is, you always have to worry about the streaky Newton. He still leads the wide receivers in targets (58), but he’s now failed to reach 55 yards in four straight games and has still yet to top 70 yards on the season. He was supposed to match-up with Desmond Trufant the most, but now that Kelvin Benjamin is gone, who knows where they line him up. Funchess has seen at least six targets in each of the last seven games and that was with Benjamin. Consider him a WR3 at the least.
Curtis Samuel: Now that Benjamin is gone, we have to think about where the targets will go, right? Samuel was their second-round draft pick who has played just 28.3 percent of snaps to this point. You shouldn’t aim to use him this week, but definitely pay attention and maybe speculatively add him in deeper leagues.
Russell Shepard: He’s just a guy in the offense who’ll see a slight bump in targets with Benjamin gone. Over the last seven games, he’s failed to top 20 yards even once. The Panthers have made it clear that they want to get Samuel more snaps going forward, which doesn’t exactly scream confidence in Shepard. Avoid until he gives us a reason not to.
TEs
Austin Hooper: Some may see Hooper’s stat sheet from Week 7 and think, “that’s good,” but it could have been even better. He let a second touchdown go directly through his hands in the second half. Had it not been for that ridiculous one target game against the Patriots, I’d feel better recommending him going forward. He’s seen six or more targets in three of his last four games, and has totaled at least 47 yards in each of them. The Panthers have struggled to defend the tight end position, allowing quarterbacks a 111.2 QB Rating when targeting them. With Sanu’s tougher matchup, Hooper can be considered for streaming purposes this week.
Ed Dickson: Since his 175-yard performance against the Lions, Dickson has failed to total more than 36 yards in any contest. The Falcons are particularly good against tight ends, so don’t consider Dickson as a streamer this week.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Total: 43.0
Line: LAR by 3.5
QBs
Jared Goff: If you were to remove the Giants name from all box scores and just look at pure numbers, they have allowed a lot of big quarterback performances. In fact, just two quarterbacks have failed to finish as QB1’s against them this year and even those who didn’t totaled 13.2 and 15.2 fantasy points. Goff himself has been hit or miss, scoring 18 or more points in three games, but also scoring 10 or less points in three games. Going into New York to play against a team coming off their bye isn’t ideal, but doing so against them without their best cornerback is ideal. Consider Goff a high-end QB2 with upside.
Eli Manning: He’s going to get Sterling Shepard back this week, which is huge, as he’s the only one who has NFL starting talent. The Rams have allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than 252 yards this year, and oddly enough, it was Brian Hoyer on that Thursday night game a month back. Outside of that game, they have allowed just six passing touchdowns in their other six games. Aaron Donald and company should be able to generate pressure up the middle, making Manning just a low-end QB2 for Week 9.
RBs
Todd Gurley: After scoring seven touchdowns in the first four games, Gurley has cooled off over the last three games while scoring just once. The positive is that he’s now totaled at least 100 rushing yards in four of the last five games, a good sign that touchdowns will follow. The Giants have allowed just two running backs to score more than 12 PPR points this year – Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon, two stud workhorses, similar to Gurley. He’s a solid RB1 play this week, but maybe not worth going all-in from a DFS standpoint.
Orleans Darkwa, Wayne Gallman, and Shane Vereen: Most proclaimed Orleans Darkwa the locked-in starter after the win in Denver, but you were warned not to trust a Giants running back. The touch total in Week 7 was: Darkwa 12, Gallman 7, Vereen 5. Behind a subpar offensive line, that’s not ideal. Knowing the Rams have struggled against the run is tempting, though, as they have given up seven rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns to running backs. Looking at a similar situation against the Seahawks, Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy combined for just 39 yards on 17 carries and no touchdowns. Consider Darkwa an RB3 and the preferred option, while Gallman is just a desperation RB5 and Vereen is to be benched.
WRs
Sammy Watkins: Let’s hope the bye week did something for him, as the Rams need to find a way to utilize his skill-set. He’s totaled just five catches for 70 yards in their last four games combined. Think about that. This is a wide receiver who was traded for a second-round pick and is in a contract year, they need to get him the ball. It really helps that Janoris Jenkins has been suspended, making Watkins an attractive WR3 with upside in this game.
Robert Woods: He was supposed to get the better draw in coverage against Eli Apple this week, who has already allowed five touchdowns in his coverage this year, but now that Jenkins is suspended, Watkins is the premier play on the Rams. Woods is still in play this week as a WR4, as the Giants secondary just isn’t what it once was.
Cooper Kupp: The Giants chose not to use slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie against the Seahawks very much after he gave up 53 yards and a touchdown on just 16 snaps. It’s hard to say whether or not they even want to play him in this game after that performance, but Kupp hasn’t done anything to justify anything more than a low-end WR4 in fantasy, as he’s failed to top 60 yards since way back in Week 1.
Sterling Shepard: Coming off a multi-week absence, Shepard will be relied upon very heavily in this game. In the two games without his starting wide receivers, Manning targeted his backups 21 times, which is a lot considering who he was throwing to. Shepard should see eight-plus targets against a Rams secondary that has yet to allow a wide receiver to finish as a WR1 in any week. The only three wide receivers to finish top-20 against them all saw 10 or more targets, which is possible for Shepard. Consider him a low-upside WR3 in this game.
TEs
Tyler Higbee: Despite seeing 27 targets on the season, Higbee has yet to score. There have been just two games this season where he’s seen more than three targets, making him a less than ideal target most weeks. The Giants, however, make us think about it. They have allowed at least one top-12 tight end in every game they’ve played this season, including Jeff Heuerman. If you’re looking for a bottom-of-the-barrel streaming option, Higbee is your man. He might score his first touchdown of the year, as the Giants have amazingly allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game this year.
Evan Engram: He was essentially playing the slot role for the Giants with Shepard on the shelf, but it’ll be interesting to see how they use him now that Shepard is back. After totaling 44 or more yards in each of their first three games, Engram has now totaled at least 60 yards in three of the last four games. The Rams have yet to allow a tight end more than 50 yards this season and they’ve played against Jack Doyle, Jordan Reed, Jason Witten, and Jimmy Graham. You’re playing Engram as a TE1, but it’s not the best matchup for him to blow up or anything.
