Since coming into the league in 2014, Sammy Watkins has brought on a variety of emotions to fantasy enthusiasts. From the guy who could tear the top of the defense, to the guy who is always injured, to the guy who is constantly changing teams. You won’t find someone in-between on Watkins. The love is there or it’s not, likely because they’ve either been burned by him, or that they remember his success when there were a few constants with him.
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CLOUDED JUDGEMENT
Coming out of school as the No. 4 overall pick comes with seriously high expectations, and although some say Watkins has been a bust, I’d disagree with that assessment. Do you believe that Tyrod Taylor and Jared Goff are exceptional quarterbacks? I think it’s fair to say that Taylor is an average passer, while Goff is slightly above average at this point in his career. Not saying he can’t be better, but I wouldn’t put him inside the top-12 quarterbacks in the league, so he’s average for the point I’m making here. Do you know how many fantasy points the average target nets? In 2017, it was 1.03 standard points and 1.62 PPR points. In 2016, it was 1.08 standard points and 1.64 PPR points.
Over his four years in the league, Watkins has averaged 1.32 standard points per target and 1.87 PPR points per target. Doing that over a four-year span is quite impressive when you consider the targets have come from average passers. When you look at a wide receiver tied to Aaron Rodgers, you’d expect those numbers to be higher than the average, right? Many considered Watkins a “bust” last year, but he did everything he could with the targets he received (70 of them) and averaged the fourth-most fantasy points per target of the 83 wide receivers who totaled more than 50 targets. The players who finished ahead of him were JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill, and Marvin Jones. Keep in mind that Watkins had ZERO offseason (was traded to them August 11th) to learn a brand-new offense and develop chemistry with his quarterback.
HEALTH AN ISSUE?
Health has been an issue for Watkins, as he’s dealt with some foot injuries that have caused him to miss 12 games in the last three years. The good news, however, is that he played all but one game last year, and the only reason he didn’t play was because the Rams rested their starters. Looking at his production last year, it seems like his foot issues are behind him, similar to Julio Jones, who had the same foot injury back in 2013 but has gone on to post four straight 1,400-yard seasons. Don’t let health deter you from drafting Watkins.
NEW TEAM, NEW ROLE
It’s now his third offense in as many years, so how quickly can he grasp it and what role will he play? Andy Reid came out after mini-camp saying they’re moving Watkins all over the place, something Reid said Watkins hasn’t done much of throughout his career. While that was true in the Bills offense, Watkins’ slot usage has increased every single year in the NFL. From just 6.8 percent his rookie year, to 12.9 percent in 2015, 20.7 percent in 2016, and then a career-high 31 percent with the Rams last year. This brings us to another positive for Watkins, as slot targets should be viewed as higher quality targets. Remember the 1.03 standard points and 1.62 PPR points per target from 2017? Well, slot targets were worth 1.12 standard points and 1.79 PPR points per target in 2017. While it may not seem like much, it’s huge if Watkins is playing 30-plus percent of his snaps out of the slot again.
The issue with seeing everything through rose-colored glasses for Watkins is that the Chiefs suddenly have a lot of mouths to feed with Watkins, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt on the roster. It would’ve been a real problem in years past, as the Chiefs averaged just 519 pass attempts over the last five years. There’s reason for optimism, though, as you don’t go out and trade up get a gunslinging rocket-armed quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or go out and sign a big-name wide receiver like Watkins to not throw the ball a bit more. If that were the case, why wouldn’t they have stuck with Alex Smith? On top of that, their defense is trending in the wrong direction and lost a lot of their key players this offseason. Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Bennie Logan, and Marcus Peters are all key players who are gone. This team will have to throw more out of necessity.
But on top of that, Reid is a chameleon coach and that’s what makes him so great. Prior to going to the Chiefs and acquiring Smith from the 49ers, did you know that Reid’s offenses ranked inside the top-13 in pass attempts for nine straight years? They also finished inside the top-12 in passing yardage and passing touchdowns, which is just an added bonus and shows the efficiency that his offense produces. Many tie Reid to someone who runs the ball a lot, but his offenses haven’t finished inside the top-10 in rushing attempts since back in 2002.
We still have to look at the negatives, though, and the Chiefs wide receivers saw just 44.7 percent of the targets in 2017, which was easily the lowest percentage in the league (next lowest was 47.1 percent). This is significant because offensive schemes typically don’t drastically change who they throw to overnight. While I mentioned that Reid is a chameleon, he’s never had what I’d call a “wide receiver friendly” offense. In fact, he’s produced just two top-10 wide receivers in his 18 years of coaching, and one was Hill last year. His offense has produced two top-30 wide receivers just once, which came back in 2010 with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. That team also didn’t have anyone close to the talent level of Kelce, no, they had Brent Celek who finished as the No. 18 tight end.
2018 OUTLOOK
Knowing what you do about Watkins’ per target production and increased usage in the slot, there’s plenty of reason for optimism. However, the lack of wide receiver production in Reid’s offense is certainly a detractor when it comes to projected success. The good news with Watkins is that his current ADP sits right around the 30th wide receiver off the board, so you aren’t paying top-dollar to acquire him. I’d argue that there’s very few wide receivers being drafted in this range who have the skill-level and per-target production that Watkins does. One thing is for sure, though, and it’s that you shouldn’t be drafting Hill as a top-10 wide receiver, which is where he’s currently at. It wouldn’t shock me if both Hill and Watkins finished inside the top-30, but you shouldn’t bet on it.
Think about the pressure you’re putting on Mahomes, who is essentially a rookie who has played in one NFL game, yet most think he can produce a top-two tight end, top-eight running back, and two top-30 wide receivers? Let’s lower the bar some more… Do you know how many teams produced a top-10 tight end, top-10 running back, and two top-30 wide receivers? Zero. Someone is going to disappoint of the bunch, but Watkins is the only one who wouldn’t hurt you much if you did because you’d be spending roughly a seventh-round pick on him. When drafting, take players who have room for equity, not those who are being drafted at their ceiling. The road with Watkins might be a little more bumpy than you’d like, but there’s certainly a chance that he outproduces his ADP. My 2018 projection: 98 targets, 57 receptions, 861 yards, 6 touchdowns
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
