After the 2014 rookie receivers exploded onto the scene, we’ve had a bit of an exaggerated expectation of what the young wide receivers should be able to accomplish. Five receivers from that class (Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, and Sammy Watkins) finished as the WR25 or better in their rookie season, but since then only one rookie per season has cracked the top 25. Wide receivers can sometimes take a few years to develop and learn the NFL game, especially if they’ve dealt with injuries in their first couple of seasons.
The 2016 wide receiver class was full of hype. Four receivers were drafted in the first round, and then three more were selected in the second. Many of them, however, haven’t seen the field enough to establish themselves. The first five receivers picked (Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, and Sterling Shepard) have missed a combined total of 47 games over their first two seasons. Now entering year three, many of these former college stars are facing make-or-break seasons. With training camp just recently underway, here’s how I rank the third-year wide receivers for PPR leagues.
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Michael Thomas (NO)
Since entering the league, Thomas has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy football. He’s finished as a top-24 wide receiver in 66% of the weeks he’s played, and last year he only finished outside of the top-36 three times. His WR6 overall PPR finish last year came despite Drew Brees putting up his lowest numbers in both passing yards and touchdowns in 12 years as a Saint.
Thomas’ ECR (expert consensus ranking) and ADP (average draft position) are both WR5, which I think is an accurate value. Since he’s been in New Orleans, Brees has averaged 34 touchdowns per season, and until last year, hadn’t thrown fewer than 4,870 yards since 2010. Positive regression is almost a guarantee, and Thomas will be the main beneficiary.
Tyreek Hill (KC)
If Thomas is synonymous with consistency, then Hill is synonymous with efficiency. He finished as the WR8 last season despite receiving fewer targets than anyone in the top 17. Only Juju Smith-Schuster had a higher yards per target rate last season than Hill. While explosive, Hill has been known for weekly volatility. He improved on that last year, but still had four games in which he failed to post double-digit points in PPR formats.
Hill is being drafted as the WR11, but I feel more comfortable where the ECR has him ranked (WR16). The Chiefs intend to use Sammy Watkins a lot more effectively than the Rams did last year, and Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt are also going to get their workloads. Turning Hill into a WR1 with all the other weapons in Kansas City seems like a tall order for Pat Mahomes who only has 35 NFL passes under his belt.
Sterling Shepard (NYG)
Shepard had an impressive rookie season, catching 65 balls for 683 yards and eight touchdowns. After Odell Beckham Jr. went down last season, many viewed Shepard as a potential weekly WR1, but then he went down to injury as well a game later. He was never quite fully healthy when he returned, and the Giants were playing so poorly that it didn’t even matter. This year, Beckham and Shepard have a full bill of health, and the Giants have a shiny new do-it-all weapon in Saquon Barkley.
There are a lot of mouths to feed now with Beckham, Barkley, and second-year tight end Evan Engram, so some may view that as a deterrent to drafting Shepard, but with opposing defenses focusing on everyone else, Shepard could become the possession receiver for Eli Manning out of the slot. He’s being drafted as the WR43 at 103rd overall. For a high-upside flex on an offense that threatens to score in bunches, a mid-eighth-round pick is not a high price to pay.
Will Fuller (HOU)
Fuller had trouble not finding the end zone last season as he scored a touchdown on 25% of his catches. Since 2000, only nine players have had seven touchdowns on less than 30 receptions, and only four of them were wide receivers. Fuller caught his seven scores on only 28 catches and 50 targets. The point is that it is nearly impossible to continue performing with that efficiency. He’s currently ranked one spot behind Shepard, but ADP has him being drafted 35 spots before him as the 29th receiver off the board. This is quite a reach for me.
On top of his unsustainable touchdown rate, Fuller will soon have to compete with rookie wide receiver Keke Coutee, who is impressing everyone at Texans camp from Deshaun Watson to Andre Johnson. Watson himself is also only in his second year, and while much of it was impressive, we only saw a five-game sample size of his capabilities.
Josh Doctson (WAS)
Doctson spent almost his entire rookie season on the bench due to injury, but managed to play a full 16 games last year and led the Redskins with six receiving touchdowns. Last year served as his “real” rookie season, and if he can take another leap forward, he could become precisely the guy the Redskins thought they had when they drafted him; the athletic X receiver who had 2,334 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns over his final two years at TCU. Since 2000, however, the Redskins have only had seven receivers hit 175 fantasy points, and never had two in the same season.
The lowest fantasy point total for any receiver who has cracked the top 24 in the last 10 years was 187. With Jamison Crowder looking like Alex Smith’s first option, it may be hard to stomach grabbing Doctson at his ADP (11th round), and if Jordan Reed is healthy, that takes away some of his touchdown upside, but if he drops one more round, I think he’s worth a flier.
Tyler Boyd (CIN)
After a productive rookie season, things went downhill in a hurry for Boyd last year. Between legal trouble and injury problems, he only managed 22 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games in 2017. With Brandon LaFell’s recent release, however, 89 targets have opened up, and Boyd has a bigger opportunity to return to his rookie season form.
John Ross will also be vying for some of those targets, but he spent the entire season in the doghouse last year. After fumbling the first touch of his career, he only appeared in three games. Boyd is currently going undrafted, but could end up being the second option on the Bengals offense after A.J. Green.
Corey Coleman (BUF)
Coleman was the first receiver drafted in 2016, but has since been pushed further and further down the Browns’ depth chart, and was finally traded to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. While his opportunity and target volume should grow as a member of the Bills, he takes a large step down in quarterback play and overall offensive talent, so he essentially went from one bad situation to a different bad situation. The Bills were 31st in passing yardage and 27th in passing touchdowns last season, and now their quarterback options have combined for five NFL starts and seven interceptions. Coleman will have a better chance to prove himself but will need all the help he can get from his quarterbacks.
Laquon Treadwell (MIN)
After accumulating only 21 catches for 215 yards in his first two seasons, Treadwell, the last of the first-round picks, will have to go a long way to prove he has value. Without Treadwell, the Vikings already look like the most complete team on paper. The ECR has Dalvin Cooked ranked as the RB10, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs as the WR11 and WR14, and Kyle Rudolph as the TE8. The Vikings also have last year’s best defense based on both yards and points given up so they likely won’t need to throw the ball a crazy amount. Treadwell is not worth a pick.
Malcolm Mitchell (FA)
Mitchell didn’t play in a single game last year, but showed promise as a rookie playing with Tom Brady as his quarterback. The issue now is that the Patriots just released him in part due to his high injury rate, and we don’t know how much stand-alone value he has outside of their offensive system. After clearing waivers, Mitchell is now a free agent but likely won’t get signed until an injury forces a team’s hand. He’ll also need to prove that he can stay healthy
Pharoh Cooper (LAR)
Cooper doesn’t have much value unless you’re in a league that awards points for return yards. He made the Pro Bowl last year as a return specialist, but won’t get many looks on offense behind Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp on a run first team.
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Sam Schlesinger is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sam, check out his archive and follow him @avishai41.
