We are counting down the hours until another crazy Sunday of football kicks off. Last week, we saw Calvin Ridley and Chris Carson both explode onto the scene and surely several other similar surprises will happen in Week 4. Today, I’ll be giving 10 bold predictions of what may take place this week. A bold prediction is something the general public would give less than a 10% shot of happening, but I put it at 25% or higher. Last week, I hit on 3 out of 10, putting me at 27% on the season. My goal is to finish the season at or above 30%, so I’ll need to nail 4 this weekend. Here we go!
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#10 Aaron Jones will be a top 20 RB this week
From the moment the Bills dealt Marcell Dareus to the Jaguars last season, they had the worst run defense in the NFL. Through the first two weeks of the season, nothing had changed and everyone had them targeted in the running game once again for Week 3, but the Vikings ran the balls just SIX times. I don’t know about you, but I’m going back to it this weekend since the Packers are clearly going to run the ball more than SIX times. Aaron Rodgers has been calling for the electric Jones to be more involved. The breakout begins this week.
Final Prediction: 12 carries, 74 rush yards, 2 receptions, 48 receiving yards, 1 TD
#9 Corey Davis will finish as a top 24 WR this week
Here are the players who provided a 30% target share or higher last season: Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. Davis currently has a 30% target share. It hasn’t been pretty in Tennessee’s passing game thus far, but there is no beating around the bush when it comes to the fact that Davis is a clear-cut number one for his team. With the opportunities will surely come fantasy points sooner than later. Sign me up for him not just being a top 24 receiver this week in his first reasonable matchup, but for the rest of the season.
Final Prediction: 8 receptions, 90 receiving yards, 1 TD
#8 Jimmy Graham won’t be a top 12 TE this week
Everyone has Graham locked in as a top-five tight end this weekend, but to me, it is a coin flip as to whether or not he will finish in the top 12. This shouldn’t come as a surprise considering he has missed TE1 territory in 9 out of 19 games since the start of last season and has only been in the top 5 at the position in 3 out of 19. He’s got upside against Buffalo, without question, but starting him week to week will take a toll on fantasy owners.
Final Prediction: 4 receptions, 38 receiving yards
#7 Tyler Boyd will be a top 24 WR this week
It seems as though A.J. Green is going to suit up for Sunday’s game, but this may actually be good news for Boyd. If that hadn’t been the case, Boyd would be moving outside and end up shadowed my Marcus Trufant. Rather, you can expect him to remain in the slot for 70% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps. Brian Poole has not only been the worst slot corner in the NFL, but is also banged up so Boyd could feast, especially with Dalton under-pressure and Green preoccupied by Trufant.
Final Prediction: 7 receptions, 109 receiving yards
#6 Phillip Lindsay will finish as a top 15 RB this week
Chances are, the Chiefs will score a boatload of points once again which means Denver will turn to Lindsay instead of Royce Freeman out of the backfield. He is their primary passing situation running back and has been exceptional thus far. All it takes is one big play and a dozen touches for him and if you’ve seen Lindsay play, you know he is one of the biggest threats to take a long run or catch to the house. Add in Kansas City’s putrid defense and the odds only multiply.
Final Prediction: 9 carries, 56 yards, 1 TD, 6 receptions, 43 receiving yards
#5 Patrick Mahomes will finish outside the top 5 QBs this week
Did you know Mahomes is only 9th in the NFL in passing yards after three weeks? He is just 1 yard ahead of Matthew Stafford and Joe Flacco too. If you pro-rate his numbers to a full season, he is on pace for fewer than 500 passes. The only reason for his success thus far is an entirely unsustainable 14.0% touchdown rate. More likely, he is a low-end QB1 for the rest of the season, especially against a defense like the Broncos this week.
Final Prediction: 252 pass yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yards
#4 Kenyan Drake won’t be a top 24 RB this week
So far this season, Drake has fewer carries than Chris Carson had just last week. In fact, Josh Allen is right behind him in carries. It is difficult to produce with just 10 carries per week, and until that changes, I’ll continue to bet on Drake finishing outside the top 24 once again. It only adds onto his concerns that the Dolphins are likely to be playing from behind versus New England this week and will likely abandon the run early on.
Final Prediction: 10 carries, 49 rush yards, 2 receptions, 11 receiving yards
#3 Mike Williams will finish as a top 24 WR this week
Keenan Allen is currently listed as questionable, but even if that weren’t the case, Williams makes for an exceptional play once again this week. He has played well enough that the WR2 job is now secure. In fact, he is more likely to begin cutting in on Keenan Allen‘s targets than to lose some to Travis Benjamin. Williams has a defensive end’s body with freak athleticism and his own coach has compared him to Terrell Owens. Expect him to continue surging into the national scene now that he is entrenched in the starting lineup and coming into a solid home matchup versus the 49ers.
Final Prediction: 4 receptions, 70 receiving yards, 1 TD
#2 Sony Michel will be a top 12 RB this week
Michel has been a disappointment for those who drafted him in the middle rounds of their drafts this summer, but that narrative is set to change in a hurry. Sony is the biggest beneficiary of Rex Burkhead being sent to the injured reserve. Suddenly, he seems likely to get 15+ carries and all the goal-line carries in the offense with more goal-line opportunities each year than any other team in football. Add in a funnel defense on the opposing side of the ball and he could have a tremendous week.
Final Prediction: 16 carries, 66 rush yards, 2 TDs, 3 receptions, 19 receiving yards
#1 Case Keenum will end up as a top 12 QB this week
There is nothing remotely exciting about Keenum’s ability, at least compared to other starting NFL quarterbacks. Many are prepared to give up on him after back to back rough weeks, but Week 4 is almost certain to be a different story. His opponent, the Chiefs, have allowed 30.43 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks so far this season. The league average last year was under 17 points, so essentially, any QB going against them gets around a 70% boost in expected production. If that were to happen, it would give Keenum the 22 points I’m projecting him for, which is a QB1 every single week.
Final Prediction: 314 pass yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 18 rush yards
**Bonus Super Duper Bold Prediction**
Devante Parker will end up as a top 36 WR this week
I almost feel like this one is cheating. Parker has started 25 games in his career. He has 60+ yards in 16 of them, for a 64% rate. Only seven players (all starts) have a higher rate. Parker is the Dolphins’ #1 receiver and has been all pre-season. He played 75% of the snaps this week and is ready to finally play a season outside of Jarvis Landry‘s shadow.
Final Prediction: 5 receptions, 77 receiving yards, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and happy football season!
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