Wild Card Weekend is over and only eight teams remain in the mix for a Super Bowl. This slate is jam-packed with exciting matchups and terrific fantasy contributors. Here are some notable players to take a look at in advance of what promises to be an incredible weekend of football.
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Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck (IND): $8,400 @ KC (+$400)
The Andrew Luck comeback tour has been a joy to watch this season, and on Saturday things are about to get very interesting when Luck’s Colts travel to Kansas City to face off with Patrick Mahomes and company. With 89 combined touchdown passes between these two gunslingers during the regular season, it should come as no surprise that this game has a 57-point over/under and is seen as a potential shootout in the making.
If you include Wild Card Weekend, Luck has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 14 of 17 contests, and a matchup against a vulnerable Kansas City defense that allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks should pay dividends in fantasy. Yes, he’s seen a $400 cost hike, but I think that’s more than reasonable considering his upside. In spite of an almost ideal set-up, he can be started for QB3 cost this weekend. I would be stunned to see him throw for fewer than 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in this one.
Patrick Mahomes (KC): $9,000 vs IND (-$500)
It feels like we haven’t talked about Mahomes in this column nearly enough so let’s just lay it all out there: the man is an incredible quarterback and a likely MVP winner. It’s incredible to think of the fact that he’s made only 17 NFL starts and is arguably already the most dynamic passer in the league. With 5,097 passing yards and 52 total touchdowns on the season, he looked utterly unstoppable for much of the campaign.
This weekend, Mahomes remains the highest valued passer on the slate, but his $500 drop can likely be explained by the fact that he’s set to face off with a remarkably improved Colts defense that only allowed 16.9 FanDuel points per contest to opposing quarterbacks in 2018, and just shut down the Texans’ offense last weekend. As I mentioned earlier, this game could be a shootout and you can likely play Mahomes with confidence. The QB1 cost is standard fare for the talented sophomore at this point in the season, but his upside is unmatched.
Running Backs
James White (NE): $7,400 vs. LAC (+$900)
White’s production saw some ebbs and flows over the last six weeks of the season, but he remained a reliable contributor for the Patriots whenever they needed him. There has never been any question about his receiving prowess, as his 87 catches were third-most among running backs and his seven touchdown grabs tied for the most at the position. With 1,176 yards and 12 total scores on the season, he was a big-time contributor to many lineups in 2018, and a premium sleeper in seasonal formats.
At first glance, his $900 value increase might seem peculiar, particularly since he’s facing a Chargers team that clamped down on the Ravens’ elite rushing attack last weekend. However, a little further study makes it understandable. The Chargers allowed 107 receptions (fourth-most) for 973 yards (the most) to opposing runners in 2018. Since enemy tailbacks did much of their damage against this team through the air, this matchup clearly sets up better for White than his backfield mate Sony Michel. With that being said, $7,400 might be a little steep, especially when his value is identical to this man…
Melvin Gordon (LAC): $7,400 @ NE (-$1,000)
Heading into Wild Card Weekend, Gordon was presumed to be back at full health, but an early knee injury slowed him down against a dominant Ravens’ defense and he finished with 17 carries for only 40 rushing yards and a score. It wasn’t pretty, but considering the circumstances, it was still a solid performance from one of the game’s most productive runners.
In theory, things should get a little easier this week. The Patriots aren’t exactly pushovers against the run (tied for ninth-fewest FanDuel points allowed to running backs), but the matchup is certainly more favorable than what he faced last weekend. Furthermore, the 17 totes he handled against the Ravens were the most he’s received since he returned from injury in Week 16. Another sizable workload should be in order in the Divisional Round. With a $1,000 value decline, Gordon can be in your lineup for the RB4 (tied) cost. If you feel confident about his health, he’s a potential steal and is a quality play at a minimum.
Wide Receivers
Tre’Quan Smith (NO): $5,300 vs. PHI (+$700)
Smith has had his ups and downs as a rookie, and lately New Orleans’ offense hasn’t been as potent as it looked earlier in the season, but sometimes a good matchup fixes everything. This week, Smith draws an Eagles secondary that surrendered the fourth-most FanDuel points to opposing wideouts during the season and was just pummeled by Allen Robinson to the tune of 10 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown on Wild Card Weekend.
Smith has shown flashes of greatness as a deep threat and Drew Brees will likely have ample opportunity to push the ball downfield in this contest. The rookie comes with a ton of risk, but even with his $700 value hike, he represents a potential boom or bust value play in such a favorable matchup.
Robert Woods (LAR): $7,500 vs. DAL (-$100)
Woods is one of the NFL’s most underrated receivers, in spite of the fact he plays in such a major market. With 86 receptions for 1,219 and six touchdown receptions, the former Buffalo Bill is having a career season in the Rams’ high-octane offense. Brandin Cooks is more of a household name and Todd Gurley is a two-time All-Pro, but Woods has been a game-changer for this franchise in his own right.
With that said, the Cowboys are no easy matchup. Dallas allowed the sixth-fewest FanDuel points to opposing receivers in 2018, and they could present a problem for Woods, Cooks, and Josh Reynolds on Saturday Night. Woods can be started for WR5 cost, and even in a tough matchup I expect him to perform admirably. The veteran received seven or more targets in all but three games this season and should see plenty of work again this weekend. While he’s unlikely to reach his upside in this one, his floor is higher than that of most of his peers.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (LAC): $4,900 @ NE (No Value Change)
Yes, there’s no value change to discuss here, but let’s take a moment to enjoy the fact that Henry is expected to make his season debut against the Patriots on Sunday afternoon. After tearing his ACL in May, the talented young tight end missed the entirety of the season, but is clearly at a point in his rehab where the team feels comfortable getting him back on the field.
I have no idea how much he will play this weekend, and my best guess is not much. The matchup with the Patriots is middling at best, anyway. Having said that, he’s one of the league’s most dynamic talents at the position and the Chargers have missed him desperately. If you want to swing for the fences and take a risk, starting him for only $4,900 could pay dividends, even on a likely limited snap count.
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,000 vs. IND (-$200)
Kelce set career-highs across the board in 2018 with 103 catches for 1,336 yards (second-most all-time for a tight end), and 10 touchdown receptions en route to an All-Pro selection. The sixth-year man cemented himself as the best tight end in the game in the minds of many fans and pundits and is part of one of the most dynamic offenses the NFL has seen in recent memory. Week after week, he’s the most expensive tight end on the slate, and that’s no different heading into the Divisional Round.
This time around, he draws a Colts team that allowed the third-most FanDuel points to tight ends in 2018, and he does so on the biggest stage of his career. Last year, Kansas City was beating the Titans comfortably on Wild Card Weekend, before a concussion forced Kelce out of the game in the second quarter. Don’t think he’s forgotten that. Kelce is never going to be an inexpensive option, but he’s almost always an elite one. That is unlikely to change this weekend.
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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.
