The first step to any draft is knowing your league rules. It sounds simple, but you’d be surprised how many people overlook the scoring and settings, only to be caught off guard in the middle of their draft. Add to that, knowing your leaguemates is important, too. It’s not a knock on drafts with random people, but when you know the people you are competing against, you can pick up on their tendencies and even exploit them to your advantage.
But one value-based advantage not nearly discussed enough is finding value differences in the platform’s ADP. Whether it’s ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Fantrax, Ottoneu, or any other fantasy host site, each has its own respective set of rankings and ADP that draft rooms use
It’s highly recommended that you ignore these and go with your own set of rankings, but the majority of drafters will use the default rankings as a guide to who to take where. Do some research ahead of time and look at some of the players who are overrated and underrated in the draft room. Use it to your advantage to wait on a player a round or two, or jump on a player early to ensure you get them.
Let’s take a look at some of overrated rankings from Yahoo’s standard head-to-head categories format.
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All ADP is as of Tuesday, March 5
Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD: 37th overall (CBS 48, ESPN 85)
The ADP on CBS and ESPN has adjusted to Kershaw’s concerning spring training, and all three numbers should continue to trend downward. The last pitcher to start Opening Day for the Dodgers that didn’t have the last name Kershaw was Vincente Padilla in 2010.
George Springer (OF – HOU): 40th overall (CBS 45, ESPN 48)
Springer is already 29, and I don’t think enough people realize that. He is what he is, which is fine, but his value is driven by plate appearances. He shouldn’t be your OF1.
Gleyber Torres (2B/SS – NYY): 57th overall (CBS 68, ESPN 53)
Torres came out firing in his big-league debut last season, but most of it was power-driven. Now, I’m not saying that power breakouts don’t happen when a player arrives in the majors. Look at Francisco Lindor for the poster boy of this. However, if you look at Torres’ minor league production, power wasn’t one of his main tools. With power regression likely while batting in the lower third of the Yankees lineup, he’s set to bust this year. I’d prefer him around pick 100 or so.
Jean Segura (SS – PHI): 59th overall (CBS 66, ESPN 64)
If Segura hits toward the top of the order, he could return value here. However, I think it’s more likely that Gabe Kapler hits Andrew McCutchen and J.T. Realmuto first and second, leaving Segura to hit somewhere between sixth and eighth in this loaded lineup. Also, betting on 20-plus steals is a mistake with Segura in Philly. The Phillies only had 69 steals last year, which was the fourth-fewest in the National League.
Edwin Diaz (RP – NYM): 62nd overall (CBS 54, ESPN 58)
Yahoo is actually the lowest on Diaz of the big three, but it’s still too high. Betting on matching last season’s 57 saves is a mistake. As a rule, I never want to be the person to take the first closer in a draft. The position is too volatile from year to year to expect the top closers to carry over their value.
Gary Sanchez (C – NYY): 64th overall (CBS 49, ESPN 75)
A lot of Sanchez’s 2018 was bad luck, but it’s really, really hard for catchers to return top-50 value. Sanchez should bounce back, but there’s always a fear that defensive issues will cost him some at-bats, too. I’d prefer him in the eighth or ninth round instead of the fifth.
Jose Berrios (SP – MIN): 71st overall (CBS 81, ESPN 74)
This is one pick that has me torn. Berrios has the pedigree and has shown flashes that suggest he could turn into a top-10 pitcher this year. However, we continue to reference and draft Berrios as if he’s already that pitcher. So far in his career, he’s shown bursts of brilliance, but also stretches where you can’t start him. He needs to display more consistency before I can draft him here.
Mike Clevinger (SP – CLE): 74th overall (CBS 59, ESPN 68)
It’s not that I dislike Clevinger. I would just prefer to wait for someone like Andrew Heaney or Tyler Skaggs who can give me similar value. I typically look to take another bat at this point in drafts.
Madison Bumgarner (SP – SF): 106th overall (CBS 93, ESPN 102)
He’s toast. Unless Bumgarner falls to around 150th overall, I don’t want anything to do with him. His velocity loss is the biggest issue. He’s just too hittable right now. The only thing saving any sort of value is his home ballpark.
Eric Hosmer (1B – SD): 138th overall (CBS 174, ESPN 136)
Hosmer does this weird thing where he alternates between good and bad seasons. CBS has his value closer to where he belongs. Since first base is shallow this season, I understand wanting to get a guy who will have regular playing time. I just can’t get behind an extreme ground-ball hitting option in this long-ball era.
Gregory Polanco (OF – PIT): 163rd overall (CBS 232, ESPN 282)
There have been varying reports of Polanco’s progress during spring training ranging from Opening Day to mid-June. Michael Conforto returned from a shoulder injury last year and had a good season, but remember his numbers when he first returned? He was dreadful (.216/.344/.366) in the first half. Polanco should go around pick 250, which is where CBS and ESPN have him going. There’s no reason to take him 90 picks earlier.
Shohei Ohtani (SP – LAA): 190th overall (CBS 167, ESPN 178 – Ohtani as one player)
This one just doesn’t make any sense at all. CBS and ESPN have Ohtani as an SP/UT, which is how it should be. Yahoo, though, separates the hitter and pitcher into separate players. The pitcher is going 190th overall. He won’t throw a single inning this year, so it’s the biggest waste of a pick you can make. The only justification is if it’s in a keeper or dynasty league where you can retain him at that value.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
