DraftKings NFL Cash Lineup Advice: Week 5 (2019)
The NFL season rolls on with a 12-game Sunday main slate on DraftKings. This week’s cash game lineup construction seems to be pretty straight forward as there is a tight list of viable options to consider at most positions. But beware that in some spots the obvious play, might not be what it seems as I recommend a small pivot away from the expected chalk at one position. Also, a friendly reminder that we don’t only want a high floor from our players in cash games, but we also need to bake in some upside potential to help make up for a dud spot if needed.
Deshaun Watson (HOU): $6,700 vs. ATL
My optimal cash game lineup right now has me paying up at quarterback for Watson, which is a rare occurrence. I’m comfortable with pivoting to any of the quarterbacks on the list below in cash games, depending on injury news leading up to kickoff on Sunday. Watson is in a great spot playing at home in a game with the highest Vegas total on the main slate. The raw numbers for the Falcons pass defense look solid as they have allowed just 223 passing yards and 1.75 TDs per game. However, they have also face run-heavy offenses that skew those numbers. The Falcons pass defense ranks 21st Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) according to FootballOutsiders. Watson in a potential shootout can put up a huge day.
- Kyler Murray (ARI): $6,300 @ CIN
- Matt Ryan (ATL): $5,900 @ HOU
- Chase Daniel (CHI): $4,800 vs. OAK (in London)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,300 vs. GB
Elliott has worked his way back into a full workload following his preseason holdout by playing 96 percent of the snaps and getting 100 percent the running back carries last week. He should be in line for a huge workload this week both on the ground and through the air against the Packers. The Packers ran 27th DVOA against the run and have surrendered 5.3 YPC to opposing running backs this season which ranks 31st. Couple that with giving up six touchdowns to running backs through the first four weeks and Elliott should be eating up the Packers all day.
David Johnson (ARI): $7,500 @ CIN
The Cardinals have faced some strong defensive teams who like to run the ball and control the clock through their first four games. That all changes this week as the Cardinals travel to Cincinnati to face a winless Bengals team. The Bengals have struggled to stop running backs this season allowing 121 rushing yards (28th) and 1.25 TDs (26th) per game to running backs while posting a 4.78 YPC (26th). Opposing pass-catching backs have also averaged 7.8 receptions (31st) for 73 yards (32nd) and scored three times this season. Johnson should post his best game of the season this week.
- Leonard Fournette (JAX): $6,400 @ CAR
- David Montgomery (CHI): $5,200 vs. OAK (in London)
- Jaylen Samuels (PIT): $4,100 vs. BAL (if James Conner out)
Julio Jones (ATL): $7,700 @ HOU
You will want to get plenty of exposure to the Falcons/Texans matchup, so I’d recommend playing both sides of the passing game with either a Deshaun Watson/Julio Jones or a Matt Ryan/DeAndre Hopkins combo. Jones has already posted some big games this season while getting at least seven targets in each game. He will face a Texans secondary that has yielded an average of 195 receiving yards per game to wide receivers which rank 25th in the league through four weeks. The Texans secondary also grades poorly against outside wide receivers according to ProFootballFocus.
Auden Tate (CIN): $3,500 vs. ARI
Tate has played about 90 percent of the snaps for the Bengals over the last two weeks which has resulted in 10 catches on 16 targets for 138 yards in those outings. Now, Tate could get even more snaps and targets coming his way with John Ross put on IR. Add in a favorable, up-tempo matchup against the Cardinals along with a cheap price tag and Tate is almost a lock for cash game lineups.
- DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): $7,800 vs. ATL
- Michael Thomas (NO): $6,600 vs. TB
- Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): $6,000 @ CIN
- Alshon Jeffery (PHI): $5,900 vs. NYJ
- KeeSean Johnson (ARI): $3,500 @ CIN
Jared Cook (NO): $3,400 vs. TB
I expect the majority of DFS analysts and players to lock Tyler Eifert into the tight end spot in a juicy matchup against the Cardinals who have failed to cover the position all season. While Eifert could be a solid option, I have some concerns about his snap count which is an even split with C.J. Uzomah, and his targets which haven’t exceeded five in any game this season. So, instead, I’m going to pivot at the tight end position to Cook who has received over 20 percent target share in two of the last three weeks and has almost as favorable of a matchup as the Bengals tight end with a game against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have allowed 7.5 receptions (30th) for 91 yards (31st) and 0.5 TDs (21st) to the tight end position this season.
Titans (TEN): $3,000 vs. BUF
Sure, I’d love to pay up for the Patriots who play another weak offense this week (Redskins), but without much value on the slate, I think defense is where we need to pinch our pennies. The Titans defense has been solid this season with at least eight DraftKings points in three of their four games. They will be at home this week as a small favorite in a game with the lowest Vegas total on the slate when they face the Bills. The situation could get even better for the Titans defense this week if Josh Allen is ruled out and the Bills are forced to have Matt Barkley under center.
- Patriots (NE): $4,300 @ WAS
- Bears (CHI): $3,800 vs. OAK (in London)