Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week on the FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.
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Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco (DEN): $7,000 @ LAC (+$600)
Just because he passed for 300+ yards and three touchdowns (23.0 FDP) last week doesn’t make him a good play this week. Even though his price is a value, I don’t trust him or this Broncos’ team after he has averaged only 12.5 FDP prior to Sunday’s game. This week’s matchup is not great as the Chargers have only given up one 300-yard passing game this year after only giving up two last year.
Dak Prescott (DAL): $8,200 vs. GB (-$600)
Technically, Case Keenum has the biggest salary drop this week ($7,200 to $6,400) but nobody should be playing him since he got benched last week and has the Patriots this week. Dak had a rough game this past week against the Saints (8.6 FDP). He is still the fourth highest-performing quarterback on the year but has seen his production go down every game since his 33.4 FDP output in Week 1. There are too many other good options at this price or lower to consider Dak as a great play, even at this price discount.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (LAC): $7,100 vs. DEN (+$2,600)
There are a lot of questions surrounding Gordon’s conditioning and role on this team after Austin Ekeler’s strong start to the season. The coach has said that Gordon is the starter, but that doesn’t mean he will be the bell cow. There are a number of other options at running back for me to consider. Remember that he didn’t end 2018 on a high note either as he only averaged 53 rushing yards per game over his final four games. This included 18 for 69 yards and a 10 for 42 yards performances against the Broncos. Sure, Denver’s defense is not what they were last year, but are we sure that Melvin Gordon is the player we remember, either?
Marlon Mack (IND): $6,700 @ KC (-$600)
He departed Sunday’s game in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury. As of this writing, it is unclear how it will affect him this week. He was seeing a good deal of volume (20.5 rush attempts per game) the first three weeks. He had only 11 carries on Sunday. Even though this Chiefs’ defense has given up at least 99 yards on the ground to a running back each of the last three weeks, I will take a wait-and-see approach with Mack because of his ankle. Even though he is priced at a value, he is also surrounded by some other solid options (e.g. Leonard Fournette, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Jordan Howard, and Wayne Gallman).
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown (TEN): $5,600 vs. BUF (+900)
After his second big game of the year, his price increased. The pecking order in the Tennessee receiving corps still isn’t clear, so I can’t recommend Brown except if you are chasing points. He is averaging just a shade more than four targets per game. The Bills are not the team to play against if you are a low-volume, big-play receiver. They have yet to give up a 100-yard performance from a wide receiver this year, and they have only given up one touchdown.
Nelson Agholor (PHI): $5,500 vs. NYJ (-$700)
He is at a good price for a guy that has scored three touchdowns, been targeted 29 times, and was averaging 14.7 FDP prior to last week. However, he didn’t catch any passes (only targeted once). This won’t happen often, but he is not going to get multi-touchdown or 100-yard games often, either. He will be somewhere in the middle. He does get a Jets’ defense that is the third-worst in giving up fantasy points to the wide receiver position. If you are looking for a value play that has shown some upside, he is a decent option.
Tight Ends
Benjamin Watson (NE): $5,200 @ WAS (+$1,200)
Watson returns after his suspension, and though we’ve seen him produce in the past at other stops, we’ll need to be cautious with him this first week. He’ll likely split time and will need to shake the rust off. He caught 170 balls the past three years but only 35 of them came last year. He may be a low-priced value option soon, but right now he is just low-priced. There are better options in this price range (e.g. Delanie Walker, Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen). With all of this being said, Bill Belichick is still the coach of the Patriots, so anything is possible.
O.J. Howard (TB): $5,400 @ NO (-$500)
Unless you are following some gut hunch and are betting on talent, you will want to avoid Howard even at this reduced price. He is averaging only 3.8 FDP per game (which is less than teammate’s Cameron Brate). He is only the 30th ranked TE in fantasy production so far this year. The Saints have only given up one touchdown to the position so far this year. Will Dissly’s 6-62-1 stat line has been the best all year. This doesn’t look like the spot for Howard to get his season on track.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.
