FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 10 (Full Slate)
It’s Week 10 already, and with six teams on bye we’ve got just 13 games on the Thursday-Monday slate, the fewest we’ll have all season. Despite the limited pool of players, we still have lots of good options to target this week. ATL @ NO and ARI @ TB are tied for the highest total on this slate, both clocking in with a 51.5 O/U from Vegas. With how all four of those offenses (and defenses) have performed this season, there is no reason to fade players in either game, and I want heavy exposure to both of those matchups.
Jameis Winston (TB): $7,900 vs. ARI
Despite his many real-football flaws, Winston has been putting up decent fantasy numbers over the last few weeks, averaging 22.15 FanDuel points over his last six games. He has the Bucs’ high-volume passing approach to thank for that, as he’s averaged 41 attempts per game over that stretch. He’s just one of two quarterbacks to average more than 300 yards passing per game, along with Matt Stafford. He draws a juicy matchup this week, taking on a Cardinals’ team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Arizona’s already poor secondary has been decimated by injury, and even though Patrick Peterson is back, the ex-All-Pro is a shell of his former self, struggling to maintain average PFF performance grades. Given the high O/U, we’ll want plenty of exposure to this contest, starting with Tampa Bay’s volatile gunslinger.
Also Consider: Drew Brees (NO): $8,300 vs. ATL
Marlon Mack (IND): $7,400 vs. MIA
Any running back is worth a look against Miami, and Mack has been an absolute workhorse for Frank Reich and the Colts this season, touching the ball at least 20 times in each of his last four games. Miami has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which is bad enough on its own, but they’ve also surrendered the most overall rushing yards in the NFL despite having already had a bye week. That’s because the Dolphins have seen the most rushing attempts in the NFL at 27.5 per game, a product of their tendency to trail in games. Mack’s already hefty workload should get a boost as Indianapolis is a -10 home favorite. If Jacoby Brissett can’t play then Mack could see even more work, as the Colts will want to shield themselves from Brian Hoyer. Whether Brissett plays or not, Mack should be in for a big week in an excellent matchup.
Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): $6,900 vs. NYG
Bell was a letdown last week against the Dolphins, but that’s just driven his price down even further for another good matchup. The Giants have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, along with 4.51 yards-per-carry. The volume was certainly there for Bell last week, as he piled up 25 touches for 121 total yards. Had he found the end zone it would’ve been a great day, but instead he underwhelmed just a bit. With Sam Darnold struggling to protect the ball, Adam Gase will likely choose to feature Bell heavily in both the running game and short passing game. The veteran can give the Jets reliable yardage in a winnable game for the rebuilding squad. Hopefully, Bell burned enough people last week where owners avoid him. Watch the injury report on him, as Bell is dealing with a knee injury. If he doesn’t play, then Bilal Powell ($4,500) or Ty Montgomery ($4,600) make for possible super-cheap GPP options, but neither is too enticing even if Bell is out.
Michael Thomas (NO): $8,700 vs. ATL
There’s no way I’m building a lineup without some exposure to ATL @ NO, and Thomas gives us the best piece of this New Orleans’ offense. Obviously, he’s a great stack with Drew Brees if you’re willing to spend the dough, but Thomas is good on his own. Thomas has been a target monster all season, but he’s been used even more heavily as of late. He’s had at least 11 targets in each of his last four games, and he went for at least 112 yards in three of those four games. He’s as safe as it gets at wideout, and faces an Atlanta secondary that’s allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. This game has a massive 51.5 O/U, and New Orleans is expected to top 30 points by themselves. If we’re picking just one player from the Saints, it’s got to be Thomas.
Mike Evans (TB): $8,600 vs. ARI
Four weeks ago, Evans was coming off a donut against the Saints and looking like the second banana to Chris Godwin in Tampa. Since then, he’s averaged 15 targets and 158 receiving yards per game, with back-to-back 30-point performances. As mentioned above, Patrick Peterson has lost a step or two over the years and is no match for Evans at this point. Even though Peterson has good size for a corner at 6’1″ and 203 pounds, the 6’5″, 231-pound Evans dwarfs the Cardinals’ top DB. With Evans and Thomas we’re getting the top receiver in the two highest-scoring games on this slate, a great duo to have when we can swing it.
Calvin Ridley (ATL): $5,300 @ NO
With Mohamed Sanu gone, Ridley is the undisputed number two behind Julio Jones. That makes him an excellent value at $5.3K in this matchup with New Orleans. The Saints are a big favorite in this game, and if the Falcons have shown us anything, it’s that they can score enough points to keep it close no matter what their defense does. Matt Ryan and Drew Brees have gone toe-to-toe in some of the most lucrative fantasy battles over the years, and Ridley gives us a cheap piece of the Atlanta offense for exposure on each side.
Greg Olsen (CAR): $5.300 @ GB
Olsen’s targets have finally begun to rise with Kyle Allen at the helm, averaging 4.67 per game over the last three weeks. While that may not seem like much, it’s decent volume for a tight end in this price range. The Packers have struggled against opposing tight ends this season, having allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, including an 84-yard performance to Hunter Henry last week. Olsen gives us solid upside at a cheap price in a good matchup, which is all we really need from a tight end.
David Montgomery (CH): $6,200 vs. DET
Montgomery has emerged as the workhorse in Chicago over the last two weeks, averaging 24 touches and 22.4 FanDuel points per game during that stretch. Despite his monstrous output, his salary has hardly budged, and Montgomery is a steal at $6.2K versus Detroit. The Lions have been gashed on the ground all season, having allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. They were just ripped to shreds by Josh Jacobs as well for 120 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. Montgomery is a no-brainer at flex or a cheap RB2 this week, and he’s perfect for both cash and GPP games.
Cleveland Browns: $3,500 vs. BUF
Cleveland didn’t do much for us last week, and they haven’t done much for us over the last four weeks quite frankly, but in DFS I’m looking to spend as little as possible on my defense while still finding a team in a good situation. At a mere $3.5K, the Browns provide just that, as this game has just a 40.0 O/U, the lowest on the slate. The Bills have been average in both giveaways and sacks allowed, but have scored just 19.75 points per game. They aren’t expected to top 20 points this week, and if the Browns can muster a turnover or two they should easily hit value at this price point.