I have to admit, I cheated: not on a literal level, but figuratively. Fantasy baseball involves a lot of luck. We all know that, and it’s also a major reason why we love it. The best team immediately following the draft rarely actually wins; even the best manager in the league often gets defeated. That’s why one of the more important times of the season is the moment you figure out your draft position, and that’s exactly where I cheated.
This mock draft concludes a series of articles I have completed for FantasyPros, all analyzing different mock drafts. I decided to save the best for last. With the FantasyPros’ MLB Mock Draft Simulator, I, of course, have the ability to pick my draft positioning. And let me be perfectly clear: having the 3rd pick in 2020 drafts is essentially a cheat code. For starters, you’re guaranteed Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, or Ronald Acuna Jr. with your first selection. After that, players just seem to line up nicely with where the picks fall. So, I stacked the deck in my favor and put myself in the third position in this mock draft.
This mock draft is for a 12-team rotisserie league. I went a little hitter heavy, but being a roto league, I tried to draft as balanced of a team as possible. Let’s see how having the third overall pick played out!
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1.03: Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL)
This is where the magic begins. In this mock draft, Yelich and Trout happened to go first and second, leaving Ronald Acuna Jr. for me to take. Honestly, Acuna Jr. should be the first pick taken this year. A 22-year-old who almost went 40-40 in his first full season should be the number one pick coming off of draft boards the next year. Acuna has mouth-watering upside, more than even Trout or Yelich, without having any history of injury woes. Most projection systems have Acuna falling just short of 40 home runs and 40 steals again this year, but no one would be shocked if he reached that threshold.
Other players considered: Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor
2.10: Rafael Devers (3B – BOS)
This mock draft is full of underrated selections, beginning with Rafael Devers. Part of the reason the Red Sox were willing to trade Mookie Betts is the fact that Devers is developing into a star. Here is why. Devers cranked 32 home runs last season while hitting .311. That’s important foundational information to know, because Devers hit an incredibly high percentage of ground balls the last two years – 44% last year, to be exact. Furthermore, his HR/FB% was fairly low, as well – 17% last year. But what has many young MLB stars shown us over the past few seasons? They are capable of decreasing their GB% while also increasing their HR/FB%. Alex Bregman, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Cody Bellinger are all perfect examples of young stars doing just that. Oh, and did I mention Devers already did decrease his GB% and increase his HR/FB% from his first to the second season? More improvement is coming on that front, which means more home runs for Devers. If he can do that and still maintain a .300 AVG, Devers will be a star beginning this March.
Other players considered: Bryce Harper, Jack Flaherty
3.03: Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS)
After grabbing two bats early, I was in the market for a pitcher. Frankly, Stephen Strasburg isn’t the most appealing name to me. He is, however, in the top-8 starting pitchers, and there’s a steep drop in the rankings after that. Strasburg will provide consistent numbers when he is on the field. Injury concerns will be a yearly thing with him, but I can bank on an ERA in the mid-3.00’s with around 15 wins. Good enough for me here when I badly wanted one of the top-8 pitchers.
Other players considered: Gleyber Torres, Adalberto Mondesi
4.10: Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
There are a few players who I keep consistently ending up with in all of my mock drafts; Kershaw is one of them. Last year, Kershaw rightfully fell even further in drafts than this. This year, there’s absolutely no reason Kershaw shouldn’t be a top-10 SP. Kershaw is only 31 and is coming off of a very healthy season. With the state of the Dodgers, Kershaw could easily hit 20 wins this season for just the 3rd time in his career if he does indeed stay healthy. After not taking a SP with either of my first two picks, I love having Strasburg and Kershaw to anchor down my staff.
Other players considered: Luis Castillo, DJ LeMahieu
5.03: Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC)
Gosh, first base is a barren wasteland this year. That’s what made taking Anthony Rizzo with my fifth pick such a no brainer. Other players like Whit Merrifield and Manny Machado were both appealing due to their upside, but Rizzo’s consistent play at a premium position sealed the choice. And Rizzo is the model of consistency, as his worst collective line since 2014 is .283/.376/.470.
Other players considered: Whit Merrifield, Charlie Morton
6.10: Nelson Cruz (DH – MIN)
When I first thought about selecting Cruz with this pick, I got the feeling like I was plugging a square peg into a round hole. Cruz was free-falling, and I strongly suspected the reason was because of his DH-only eligibility. But one deep dive into Cruz’s stats and you cannot help but take him when he’s still on the board this late. Seriously, a player who’s hit no less than 37 home runs every single season since 2013 with the 70th overall pick? Don’t mind if I do! Also, in case you were worried about Cruz’s .351 BABIP, don’t be. He had a 52% hard-hit rate last season! And while that high of a BABIP might scream outlier, Cruz has actually increased his hard-hit rate every season since 2016. While I’d be forced to play Cruz in my utility slot, you can’t beat this type of value this late.
Other players considered: Tyler Glasnow, Tommy Pham
7.03: Tommy Pham (OF – SD)
Pham has gone at least 20-20 with a .273 AVG the last 3 seasons. I can’t ask for a whole lot better out of my second outfielder in the seventh round. While a move to Petco Park is never a great thing for hitters, Pham hasn’t really ever been reliant on home runs for fantasy value. He should still be able to get on base and use his speed to increase his value. Plus, nearly every projection system out there suggests Pham should still top 20 home runs.
Other players considered: Eugenio Suarez, Aroldis Chapman, Gary Sanchez
8.10: Jorge Soler (OF – KC)
I told you this mock draft was all about finding undervalued players. Soler most definitely falls under that category in 2020. If you’re interested in the nitty-gritty of why Soler broke out last season and will continue to do so this year, go back and read any of my previous articles with his name tagged. Otherwise, I’ll just spare you the repetition and tell you that assuming Soler is healthy, he will hit 40+ home runs again. I can’t think of a much better way to complete my outfield in the eighth round.
Other players considered: Nick Castellanos, Brandon Woodruff
9.03: Liam Hendriks (RP – OAK)
By the time my ninth pick rolled around, I was dangerously close to missing out on a top-tier closer. No offense to Kenley Jansen, Brad Hand, or anyone else who comes below them in the FantasyPros’ ECR, but they just don’t have the value of Hendriks, Roberto Osuna, Aroldis Chapman, Kirby Yates, or Josh Hader. After Hendriks at five, there is a significant drop-off. Hendriks is likely to have some regression from his fabulous 2019 campaign, but even if his ERA balloons a full point, I’ll still take it. An ERA under 3.00 and likely 30+ saves is what Hendriks should provide my squad.
Other players considered: Mike Soroka, Taylor Rogers
10.10: Mike Moustakas (2B, 3B – CIN)
I was dangerously close to missing out on a top closer, and I was just as alarmingly close to missing out on everyone I was comfortable starting at 2B. Players like Tommy Edman, Gavin Lux, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are all nice sleepers deeper in the rankings, but I wouldn’t feel great starting any of them. Moustakas, on the other hand, is incredibly enticing in Cincinnati this year. The ballpark, the lineup, and even the consistency are just a few of the reasons to get excited about Moustakes heading into 2020.
Other players considered: Gavin Lux, Kyle Hendricks
11.03: Lance Lynn (SP – TEX)
Unlike his teammate Mike Minor, Lance Lynn’s metrics backed up his fantastic year last season. Don’t ask how or why, but Lynn’s average fastball velocity last year was nearly 2.5 mph faster than 2017. That, along with more usage of an improved slider, contributed to Lynn’s highest K% of his career. The velocity isn’t going to go anywhere in 2020, and Lynn has a real chance to replicate last season’s numbers. If that indeed happens, Lynn would be a steal for my team.
Other players considered: Frankie Montas, Eduardo Rodriguez
12.10: Willson Contreras (C – CHC)
For the third time so far in this draft, I definitely made a pick based on the FantasyPros’ ECR. In the catcher rankings, there is yet another sharp drop off after Mitch Garver at five. Snagging one of those top-5 catchers is huge for gaining a competitive edge on the rest of the league. If you don’t grab one of those top catchers, you might as well wait until the end of your draft to take one. As far as the selection of Contreras himself is concerned, I’m just hoping for his peak, which he is yet to find: a healthy season where he hits 30 home runs with a .275 AVG. It’s easily within reach of his talent, the ball just needs to bounce his way.
Other players considered: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Brandon Workman
13.03: Jorge Polanco (SS – MIN)
Polanco just kept remaining on the board, and I didn’t have a shortstop. Honestly, after I left the first seven or eight rounds without one, I thought for sure I would be waiting until the twilight rounds to be taking a sleeper to throw into my lineup. With the way the rest of my lineup looks, however, taking Polanco seemed like a given. He isn’t going to rack up a ton of homers or steals, but he’ll help out with AVG., RBIs, and runs. For being my weakest starting hitter, I’ll take it.
Other players considered: Raisel Iglesias, Carlos Martinez
14.10: Sean Doolittle (RP – WAS)
Doolittle lived up to his name for a solid portion of the 2019 season, as he did very little to help out his club for significant stretches. There were a whole bunch of under-the-table rumblings about injuries and other reasons for Doolittle’s struggles last year. In fact, he was placed on the IL with a “knee injury” for a short time. Whether he was injured or not is still up for debate, but the IL stint did help. Doolittle got back on track at exactly the right time for the Nationals. In September and October, Doolittle had a 2.25 ERA and held opponents to a .111 AVG. That’s enough to instill confidence in me, especially as the Nats are watching his workload this spring.
Other players considered: Jose Leclerc, Tommy Edman
15.03: Jose Leclerc (SP, RP – TEX)
Jose Leclerc was taken for one reason and one reason only for me in this mock: his SP eligibility as a closer. Under the standard roster construction, I would obviously only be able to throw three closers into the three RP slots. The rest of the pitcher positions are for starters. Leclerc is a bit of a cheat code: a closer who has SP eligibility. If you play in a league like this, Leclerc is a heck of a pick. He can sit in one of your SP slots and provide much more value than almost any SP you could grab in the 15th round. Not only should my roster receive a ton of saves, but Leclerc should also help my team rack up the K’s.
Other players considered: Luke Weaver, Mike Foltynewicz
16.10: Giovanny Gallegos (RP – STL)
As of round 15, my pitching staff was average at best. We’ve officially made it to my favorite stretch of this mock and the part that I believe sets this team over the top. Gallegos is going to close games for the Cardinals, and he should be going significantly higher than the 16th round. Manager Mike Shildt likes to use one player to close rather than a committee, which is good news for Gallegos. He has a nasty wipeout slider he began throwing much more often in 2019. Hitters struggled to even make contact with it, which led him to a career-high 33.3 K%. That, along with his 2.31 2019 ERA, are sustainable and could even be improved upon if his slider continues to get better. His upside is vastly superior to anyone else’s fourth closer in this league.
Other players considered: Lance McCullers Jr., Scott Oberg
17.03: Lance McCullers Jr. (SP – HOU)
Speaking of upside, the upside of Lance McCullers Jr. is simply unmatched by anyone even near him in the FantasyPros’ ECR. Here’s a list of all the things McCullers has going for him heading into 2020. He is healthy; he’s had major success before; he’s talented; he pitches for a 100-win squad; he’s locked into a SP role; he has something to prove. McCullers is ready to get back to the 3.22 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, and 11.78 K/9 ratio he left in 2016 before being injured for parts of 2 seasons and needing Tommy John surgery in 2018. He plugs in beautifully to my starting rotation.
Other players considered: Marcus Stroman, Joey Lucchesi
18.10: Ryan Yarbrough (SP, RP – TB)
Sleeper pick! Yarbrough has all the makings of an ace, except he hasn’t been able to strike anyone out. He doesn’t walk many, keeps the ball in the park, and had a 1.00 WHIP last season. Unfortunately, Yarbrough’s fastball stinks. It’s slow – it only averages 88 MPH – and it isn’t effective. On the positive side, he threw his fastball less in 2019 than 2018. He threw his cutter much more to make up for the lack of a fastball, and his cutter was extremely effective. Common sense says Yarbrough should throw his cutter a whole lot more in 2020 and find more success. Obviously, in these late rounds, I’m taking fliers here on pitchers based upon upside. Yarbrough offers plenty of that. While his numbers might be a bit unconventional, I still like Yarbrough’s chances of having success this year in a traditional SP role for the Rays.
Other players considered: Yonny Chirinos, Aristides Aquino
19.03: Brendan McKay (SP, 1B – TB)
Bringing us to the end of my favorite stretch of this mock draft, we have Brendan McKay. I recently wrote that McKay is my favorite rookie to stash and for good reason. McKay’s numbers in the minors last season – 1.10 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 102/18 K/BB in 73 2/3 IP – should really show through in the bigs this year. Oh yeah, did I mention he can hit too? If you’re in a league that takes advantage of dual eligibility, McKay could be a total stud. It’s looking like he’ll open up the season with a starting rotation gig for the Rays, and he’s more than worthy of a late-round pick for my roster.
Other players considered: Jean Segura, Dakota Hudson
20.10: Paul DeJong (SS – STL)
Unfortunately, the Cardinals don’t really know what they have in Paul DeJong. In 2017, DeJong was excellent, hitting .285 with 25 home runs in just 108 games. In 2018, DeJong was injured and produced a poor line in 115 games. Last season, he was an All-Star before falling into a slump that saw him hit a mind-numbing .202 over the second half of the year. So, why was I interested in taking DeJong here? First and foremost, I didn’t feel comfortable rolling into the season with Jorge Polanco as my only SS. But moving past that, there’s something about DeJong that sticks out to me: his first and second half splits. In all three seasons he’s played, DeJong has had a very solid first half of the year, only to tail off down the stretch. I’ll draft a player like that all day long. If he continues this trend, DeJong will make for fantastic trade bait in May or June. If I don’t trade him, I’m hopeful that injuries were somewhat accounting for the lack of second-half production and that this will be the year he puts it all together.
Other player considered: Didi Gregorius
21.03: Lorenzo Cain (OF – MIL)
I’m fully baffled by Lorenzo Cain’s continual free-fall through drafts and rankings. Yes, Cain did struggle last season, but he was unlucky. His .301 BABIP in 2019 was easily the lowest of his career. The thing is, Cain’s contact rates were actually better than most other years of his career! There’s no way Cain should be completely written off at age 33. Seeing Cain get back to 30 steals and a .300 AVG at least once more wouldn’t be a bit of a surprise. Rounding out my roster with Lorenzo Cain was an easy choice.
Other players considered: Yandy Diaz, Kolten Wong
The number 3 spot in 2020 fantasy baseball drafts is magical. That’s backed up by the A+ grade I received from the mock draft analysis. The best part about this roster is actually its worst categorical areas. As a manager in a roto league, it’s typically easier to find wins, strikeouts, and stolen bases on the waiver wire than it is all other categories. (That’s especially true if it’s a daily-lock league.) Those are the three weak spots of this roster; aside from those three areas, this team should consistently be at the very top of all other categories. Find yourself a roster like this, and you’ll have a happy summer.
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Alex Altmix is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive or follow him @Altmix_23.
