Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks to Target (2020 Fantasy Football)
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Determining which rookie draft picks to target in trades differs depending on the format you are playing. Single QB leagues remain the most popular, but an increasingly large number of startups with 16 teams or less are now superflex leagues. For those unaware of what superflex is, it allows owners to play a QB in one of the flex spots. This differs from the antiquated two QB leagues of the past in that you are not forced to start two quarterbacks.
Strategies totally shift in superflex as there is a premium placed on quarterback production. This means waiting on a QB comes with a much higher degree of risk. As such, when superflex dynasty leagues hold their rookie drafts, it is often a quarterback that goes first overall. The paradigm shift superflex leagues call for is one of their major appeals. Today we will take a look at which rookie draft picks one should target in superflex. We ran this column here for single QB leagues, which will help in our efforts to compare and contrast. Let’s dig in.
If you have your heart set on Joe Burrow in a superflex league, your best bet is to try to acquire rookie draft pick 1.01. He will drop to 1.02, or even 1.03 in some draft rooms, but betting on that would be a high-risk investment at best. Quarterbacks are often the first overall pick in superflex rookie drafts, and this year will be no different. Joe Burrow has his doubters due to his drastic improvement in his senior season, but his historic season and health make him the apple of most superflex owners’ eyes. As such, those looking to acquire this pick should be prepared to make a “Godfather offer’.
Pick 1.02 should be the target for dynasty owners who are looking to land Tua Tagovailoa, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or Jonathan Taylor. At 1.02 you will have your choice of these rookies and will not have to leave your draft disappointed on missing out on a player you surrendered assets in an attempt to trade up for. Making a deal is easier if your league holds a slow draft, but for those of us who are in leagues where rookie drafts have a short timer, trading ahead of time may be the only option. Dynasty owners should be aware that rival owners who hold this pick may also be looking for a king’s ransom of sorts. This makes it important to do your due diligence and inquire about the price tag of both 1.01 and 1.03 before pulling the trigger.
Pick 1.04 is a bit of a sweet spot in rookie drafts. The cost to acquire this pick will be significantly less expensive than any of the top three picks, and you will still end up with either Tua Tagovailoa, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or Jonathan Taylor. For those who have J.K. Dobbins or D’Andre Swift ahead of either of those two running backs, they should still be available here as well. There is obviously no guarantee that any particular player will be available here, even Swift or Dobbins, so take that into account when preparing to send or accept an offer to acquire this pick.
The rookie 1.05 is the latest pick that dynasty owners who are seeking one of the top rookie wide receivers will want to target. Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb may be drafted as high as 1.02 or 1.03 in some draft rooms, but the most common result for the top four is going to be some permutation of Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jonathan Taylor, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Pick 1.05 will also generally allow owners to have a choice of D’Andre Swift or J.K. Dobbins, but pick 1.04 is probably the safer option for those who do not want to miss out on a running back they covet. Acquiring the 1.05 may be overkill in some draft rooms, as Jeudy and Lamb may not be selected until 1.07 or 1.08, but ensuring you land your target should take precedence over seeking value.
Justin Herbert is going to last until 1.11 or even 1.12 in some draft rooms, but if your league is holding a fast draft, pick 1.09 should be your target. Targeting this pick will decrease the chances that you miss out on the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback of the future. Herbert comes at a major discount relative to Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa. He is going late enough that playoff teams can add to their quarterback depth charts without having to surrender any assets. With that being said, pick 1.09 is still going to be a bit pricey to acquire. There will still be a number of the top rookie receivers available here (and into the second round), while some draft rooms will still have players like Cam Akers and Ke’Shawn Vaughn available here. I held this pick in my most recent superflex rookie draft, and the top trade targets from owners seeking the pick were indeed Herbert and Akers.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn is shaping up as the top value in superflex rookie drafts. He is somehow lasting from 1.10 to 2.02 (or sometimes even later) in draft rooms, something that is strange, to say the least. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is, and was one of the top rookie running backs in this draft class, and that was even before he landed in Tampa Bay. The main reason he did not appear in more top 12 rankings prior to the draft was due to his redshirt senior status, which means he is older than most like from a first-round rookie pick. He turns (turned) 23 on May 4th, which means he is the same age as players like Lamar Jackson and Miles Sanders, and is a year older than Josh Jacobs and Kyler Murray.
Sleep on Vaughn at your own peril. Yes, we have all seen the muscled up Ronald Jones hype video, but Vaughn is a more complete prospect than Jones, and may already be the more talented of the two. He will have to earn his snaps, but his pass protection prowess is going to get him on the field early and often, especially when one considers the issues Ronald Jones has famously had trying to protect his quarterback. There is no guarantee that he will be available here in every draft room, but 1.12 is the pick to target if chasing Ke’Shawn Vaughn.
2nd round picks
The second round of superflex rookie drafts is affectionately known as wide receiver country. Sure, players like A.J. Dillon, Zack Moss, Anthony McFarland, and Joshua Kelley will still be available, but the players most owners will be hot after will be the wide receivers. Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Jalen Reagor will be off the board by the start of the second round, but the player that is the fourth first-round receiver will change from draft to draft. This means players like Michael Pittman, Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Laviska Shenault, Brandon Aiyuk, and Denzel Mims and more could still be available. The second round is where those in need of a potential future WR2 or WR3 should be looking to trade into.
3rd round picks
The third round is where you will start to see the flier quarterbacks coming off the board. Jordan Love looks to be assured a starting job in two to four years’ time, but that long wait almost assures he will be lasting until the top three tiers of receivers are off the board, and perhaps even after the fourth tier running backs are selected. Jacob Eason may never get a true shot at the starting shot in Indianapolis but is worth a third or fourth-round flier just in case he does. Jalen Hurts is stuck behind an elite per game fantasy quarterback in Carson Wentz, and while he may be nothing more than a package quarterback, his fantasy upside if he ever becomes a starter makes him worth a draft and stash. The third round is also where the pool of talent seems to dry up, so this may be your last chance to land overlooked prospects like Devin Duvernay or Van Jefferson.