10 Overvalued Players (2020 Fantasy Football)
In preparation for August fantasy football drafts, it’s good practice to get a sense of which players are currently over and undervalued by the masses. You can easily do this by checking out how our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) compares to the current consensus Average Draft Position (ADP).
Beyond that, our experts are here to give you their top overvalued players based on our current fantasy football Expert Consensus Rankings.
Q: Which player do you think is most overvalued by the Expert Consensus?
Amari Cooper (WR – DAL): WR10 – No. 27 Overall
Despite averaging fewer targets (7.4 vs. 8.1) and fewer yards (74.3 vs. 79.1) per game than teammate Michael Gallup last season, Amari Cooper finds himself 21 spots ahead in the FantasyPros ECR (WR10 vs. WR31). If you take away Cooper’s two most productive games last season, when he caught a combined 22 passes for 373 yards and two touchdowns, his per-game averages look even worse. In the 14 games outside those two anomaly weeks, Cooper averaged just 58.3 yards on 4.1 catches per game. Averages like these would have netted him approximately 65 catches and 933 yards, not the typical production you’d expect from a WR1. Add in the fact that he netted under 50 yards in almost half the games he played, and I find myself out on Cooper at his current ADP of WR9. The Cowboys didn’t do their top wideout any favors on draft day either, selecting Oklahoma standout CeeDee Lamb with the 17th overall pick. Cooper will now have to compete with two rising stars for targets from Dak Prescott. I like the player for the Cowboys much more than I do for fantasy purposes this season, so I’ll stay away from Cooper and instead take my chances with Gallup at his current ADP of WR30 in half-PPR leagues.
– Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler)
Amari Cooper remains ranked ahead of D.J. Moore and even Courtland Sutton despite being one of football’s most boom-or-bust receivers. Cooper put on a vanishing act down the stretch in 2019, catching just 26 passes over his final seven games. He was held without a catch in a Week 12 disaster against New England and had just one reception for 19 yards in Week 15. Cooper had just four 100-yard games last year and was basically un-startable after Week 10. Last year’s 119 targets aren’t what we want from a player with a WR1 ADP, and now he has to compete for targets with Michael Gallup and 2020 first-round pick, CeeDee Lamb. Even in Mike McCarthy’s three-wide sets, Cooper could struggle to put up big numbers this year. Give me either Moore or Sutton all day at Cooper’s price.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)
Evan Engram (TE – NYG): TE7 – No. 72 Overall
Engram is currently the 7th tight end in the expert consensus ranking, with a ranking of 72nd overall in half-PPR leagues. I have him as the 11th tight end and 112th overall. So, yeah, he’s massively overvalued in my opinion. Engram is extremely talented, but there are too many things working against him to take him that high. With Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Saquon Barkley all healthy, Engram just isn’t going to see the huge target share that he did at the beginning of last season before his injury. And speaking of injuries, he’s already had to miss 14 games in his three-year career, meaning it’s a stretch to draft him and think you’ll get a full season. I’d prefer taking options like Hunter Henry, Jared Cook, or even Hayden Hurst, all of whom are going behind him. And beyond just his ranking at tight end, it’s silly to waste a sixth- or seventh-round pick on him. With names like Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, and Jonnu Smith often going in the late rounds or not at all, there’s zero reason to take the risk at pick 72.
– Dan Harris (@DanHarris80)
Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ): RB20 – No. 43 Overall
Le’Veon Bell is currently 43rd overall in the latest ECR after coming off the worst season of his career in 2019. The 28-year-old RB logged 245 carries for 789 rushing yards along with 66 receptions for 461 receiving yards and four total touchdowns across 15 games. Bell’s 3.2 YPC was the second-worst in the league among all running backs with at least 100 carries. The Jets reportedly will use Bell less this season, and possibly move him by the trade deadline if the team is out of playoff contention. Jets HC Adam Gase said this offseason that the team plans to take a “less is more” approach to Bell’s usage in 2020. He was reportedly training like a “mad man” to get back to the guy he once was, but with the Jets signing ageless wonder Frank Gore and drafting RB Lamical Perine, Bell could see himself in a timeshare instead. Gase has a history of using multiple backs, and he never adjusted his offensive scheme to utilize Bell’s skill set. I am not taking Bell within the top-45 picks. If I’m on the clock within Rounds 4 and 5 and taking a running back, I will take a chance on David Johnson, David Montgomery, or Jonathan Taylor, who are all ranked lower than Bell.
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)
Darren Waller (TE – LV): TE5 – No. 56 Overall
Darren Waller is riskier than he appears heading into 2020. At the beginning of last season, Waller and Tyrell Williams served as the only reliable targets for Derek Carr. This led to a breakout for the athletic tight end. Through the first eight games of 2019, Waller was the TE3. Over the final eight games of 2019, however, Waller was the TE9. As then-rookie Hunter Renfrow earned a larger role in the offense, Waller’s targets simultaneously decreased. Waller received 23.8% of the team’s targets last year, compared to Renfrow’s 17.6% target share. That flip-flopped during Renfrow’s final six games. Over that time span, Renfrow received 22.2% of the team’s targets, while Waller received 18.4%.
The competition for targets has only increased with first-round rookie receiver Henry Ruggs III and third-round rookie receiver Bryan Edwards now on the roster. The Raiders also drafted hybrid RB/WR Lynn Bowden Jr. in the third round and added Nelson Agholor through free agency. With Williams and pass-catching running back Jalen Richard returning to the team, Waller is not the lock for volume that he was last season. Waller is quite capable of living up to his current TE5 ranking, but he’s extremely overrated with an ECR of 56 overall. With D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and T.Y. Hilton ranked below Waller, fantasy drafters have more assured options to choose from.
– Mark McWhirter (@mmcw19)
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): RB5 – No. 6 Overall
When I land a middle pick in the first round of my redraft leagues, I’m looking for as little risk as possible. First-round picks are meant to be the rock-solid foundation of your fantasy season. If all goes according to plan, this pick will be your team’s top producer en route to Championship Sunday in Week 16 for your league’s title. The last thing I want out of my first-round pick is to close my eyes and cross my fingers hoping for the best, and Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has made a career out of doing exactly that for fantasy managers who deem it necessary to select him.
Despite having his best season to date last year, Cook’s absentee annoyances appeared, once again, at the most inopportune time for fantasy players. After recording 12 touches for a disastrous 43 yards in a Week 15 victory against the Chargers, Cook was forced to sit out Weeks 16 and 17. In an all too familiar tale, the choice was already made for Cook truthers to have their prized running back ride the pine in the biggest fantasy week of the year, even if they somehow miraculously found a way to sneak into the championship despite his Week 15 dud. At this point, Cook’s illustrious injury history is well documented. Having missed 19 out of a possible 48 regular-season games in just three seasons as a pro, he hasn’t played 40% of his regular-season games! Since Cook has appeared in only a single Week 16 contest throughout his career, I’m not looking to add to my fantasy stress level with my very first pick in the draft.
In predictable fashion — considering the current landscape of running backs in today’s NFL – Cook notified the Vikings that he will hold out in hopes of a new, expensive contract extension. The former Florida State running back is entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, and he’s slated to make just over $2 million in 2020. Considering what little amount of leverage that Cook has — especially when you compare his holdout to All-Pro running back Ezekiel Elliott‘s from last year – one can only hope that Cook is being realistic with his contract demands. You won’t find Cook on any of my fantasy rosters in 2020. An ADP of 6.0 is simply way too expensive for a guy who has only produced a single quality statistical season. With his inability to stay healthy — the best ability is availability — and current contract holdout situation, I will draft Derek Henry and/or any of the elite wide receivers still on the board in favor of the oft-injured, delusional Cook.
– Rob Searles (@RobBob17)
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE): RB8 – No. 13 Overall
Nick Chubb, 24 years old, is an incredible talent who’s capable of putting up monstrous fantasy football numbers any given week, but not usually when Kareem Hunt is active. With Hunt sidelined for the first eight weeks of last season, Chubb averaged 18.9 total PPR points and 3.1 receptions on exactly four targets per game. Not too bad for a guy you drafted in the second round. As soon as Hunt (also 24 years old) hit the Cleveland backfield in Week 10, though, things changed for Chubb. His per-game averages dropped to 13.0 PPR points, 1.9 targets, and 1.4 receptions.
What happened? Hunt immediately stepped in as the premier pass-catching back for the Browns, catching 37 balls on 44 targets in just eight games; that’s an average of 4.7 receptions on 5.5 targets per game. To be clear, Hunt stole an average of 8.1 total PPR points from Chubb on a per-game basis for the rest of the season. This year, when you’re looking at Chubb — who’s ranked as the RB8 in half-PPR leagues and RB11 in PPR leagues — there’s no reason to think these trends won’t continue. If anything else, Hunt will see even more targets and touches now that he’s had time to settle into his role in Cleveland. And don’t forget, Hunt finished as the RB4 in both half-point and PPR fantasy football leagues just three years ago.
There are a lot of reasons to be excited about Chubb in 2020. Cleveland made some moves to upgrade their O-line, a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. is poised to be more of a threat in the passing game, yada yada yada. But do you really want to spend a top-12 pick on a player who’s going to cede targets and split time with another explosive running back? I don’t think so. Chubb’s consensus ranking right now is 13th overall in half-PPR leagues, and that’s just too high for me. In this range, I’d rather draft a top-flight wide receiver (DeAndre Hopkins or Chris Godwin), tight end Travis Kelce, or running backs who are expected to catch more balls in 2020 (Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler).
– Jim Colombo (@widerightnblue)
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV): RB10 – No. 17 Overall
We all love Josh Jacobs as a player. He’s young, he’s an elite rusher, and most believe he’ll improve entering his sophomore season. He very well could. My rationale for labeling him as “overrated” is all about how early he goes in drafts. Jacobs is currently the RB10 (17th overall) in our ECR, right between Kenyan Drake and Miles Sanders. There aren’t many three-down backs in the NFL these days, which has inflated the value of every running back entering the 2020 fantasy season. By taking Jacobs in the second round, we are banking on the Raiders using him as a true workhorse. This requires a huge leap of faith that I’m not willing to make. The 22-year-old saw just 27 targets in 13 games as a rookie. General manager Mike Mayock says he expects Jacobs to be involved in the passing game this year, but this is the same man who re-signed Jalen Richard and drafted Lynn Bowden as receivers out of the backfield. Jacobs has plenty of appeal in standard-scoring leagues this year, but I’m fading his second-round price tag in PPR.
– Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma)
Todd Gurley (RB – ATL): RB15 – No. 32 Overall
I still do not understand how Gurley is a top-32 fantasy football player and the 15th overall fantasy running back coming off his disastrous 2019 season with the Los Angeles Rams. Gurley played 15 games last year, but had only 223 rushing attempts and 31 targets. The Rams limited his touches so that his arthritic knee would not give out on him and he’d stay fresh at the end of the season. The reduced workload, however, did little to help his production. He was one of the least efficient players in the NFL, averaging only 4.2 yards per touch. Gurley failed to break a play that went for longer than 25 yards, and the only thing that gave him any fantasy value was 14 touchdowns. The Rams were so ready to move on that they jettisoned him with $20.15 million in dead money and saved only $5.5 million against the cap. They also used a second-round pick to select his replacement, Cam Akers.
Upon becoming a free agent, Gurley, a player who had tallied 7,494 yards and 70 touchdowns in 73 games, drew so little interest in free agency that he settled for a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Falcons. The hard truth is that NFL finances are a reflection of how teams feel about players. The less money and the shorter the deal, the less enthusiasm there is for a player. The Rams endured a lot of cap harm to release Gurley, and nobody was willing to give him a long-term deal when he became a free agent. That tells me that nobody in the NFL thinks his knee is right, and nobody in the NFL thinks he can be the player he was in 2017 or 2018. Valuing him as the 30th overall player and the 14th overall running back makes no sense to me. It does not take into account his health issues. Nor does it consider his contract, which is basically a prove-it deal even though he was All-Pro First Team in both 2017 and 2018. Gurley is among the most overvalued fantasy players of 2020.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI): RB11 – No. 18 Overall
I just can’t buy Miles Sanders as the 11th running back in ECR and 18th player overall. I need to see more before I consider him this early in drafts. Many cite Sanders’ strong finish to his rookie season as the primary reason for his ascension in the ranks. However, Sanders posted more than 10 fantasy points in just three of Philadelphia’s final six games. And while the Sanders backers reminisce fondly about his 32-point performance in Week 15, they forget he only scored eight points the week prior with a similar workload. Sanders’ current ranking leaves no room for error and assumes he’ll be the bell-cow back in Philly. Doug Pederson’s track record with the Eagles suggests that’s a risky expectation. The Eagles haven’t had a running back top more than 179 attempts in a season during his four-year tenure. You could argue that the Eagles haven’t had a running back as good as Sanders. But Boston Scott still lurks, and Philadelphia added several new pass-catchers during the offseason. Don’t get me wrong, Sanders has plenty of talent. However, I tend to look for safer, proven commodities in the first three rounds of my draft, and he isn’t one right now.
– Matt Barbato (@realmattbarbato)
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): QB1 – No. 25 Overall
Patrick Mahomes is amazing and undoubtedly the best player in the NFL — and his recent 10-year, half-a-billion-dollar deal supports that. Even in a relatively down year, which we all knew was going to happen following his 50-touchdown sophomore season in 2018, Mahomes still threw for over 4,000 yards, with 28 total touchdowns against just seven turnovers in 14 games. Mahomes’ arguably worst game of his career was in the Super Bowl – in which he still produced three touchdowns and displayed some amazing Mahomes-esque maneuvers to will the Chiefs to victory and ultimately win the MVP award.
However, we are talking about fantasy football, where most leagues only require a single starting QB slot, thereby reducing the actual positional value compared to other roles. As such, we always need to be aware of added value, capital required, and opportunity costs associated with each pick we make. Considering this, Mahomes (and Lamar Jackson) being ranked within the top 30 players is a massive undertaking. By taking Mahomes in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, you are not only relying on him to generate those Madden-level numbers to simply return equal value for the pick, but you are also forgoing other, scarcer positions that are more volatile and top-heavy.
I would much rather focus on rounding out my starting RB or WR slots with the likes of Austin Ekeler, Mike Evans, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or even Odell Beckham, Jr. and selecting Drew Brees or Tom Brady late in lieu of drafting a top-tier QB early and a back-up RB or supplementary WR later. However, the ultimate caveat is that every league is different. Knowing your league’s rules, scoring, and league mates’ tendencies and prior selections may warrant drafting Mahomes in the 3rd if you reasonably knew that one of those presumed studs at RB or WR would fall to you in the 4th.
– Jared Lese (@JaredL_FF)
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