There is a stigma surrounding rookie wide receivers that they do not produce for fantasy football in their rookie seasons. While we’ve seen that start to change recently, there’s never been that sentiment regarding rookie running backs.
For the most part, running backs adjust to the NFL game more easily and this results in fantasy production sooner than later.
For example, in 2018, Saquon Barkley emerged to finish as the RB2. That same year, Nick Chubb finished as the RB16 and Sony Michel finished as the RB28. In 2019, Josh Jacobs finished as the RB18 and David Montgomery finished as the RB25. Meanwhile, Miles Sanders finished as the RB15.
There is incredible value to be had by selecting these young running backs due to their immediate production and their ADP (Average Draft Position). You’re able to scoop up productive players at a discount due to the unknowns surrounding them.
With that in mind, who are the rookie RBs that could break out like these other players listed above? It’s unlikely that any finishes with the production that Barkley had his rookie season obviously, but the players on this list can absolutely contribute to your roster in a big way in 2020.
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(Honorable Mentions: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Antonio Gibson, Darrynton Evans)
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Current ADP: RB24
My Ranking: RB20
Taylor is entering the NFL as one of the most productive CFB running backs in history. He carried the ball 926 times in college for a total of 6,174 rushing yards and 50 touchdowns. He’s a large back at 226 pounds, but can absolutely fly, as evidenced by his 4.41 40-yard dash time. Taylor has competition for touches in the backfield with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines, but he’s going to be running behind arguably the best offensive line in football. 1,200 rushing yards is not out of the realm of possibilities for Taylor in year one and he could easily finish in the top-15 RBs. With that being said, he’s not going to be heavily targeted out of the backfield, which knocks him down slightly in full PPR formats.
Jonathan Taylor has 940 more yards AFTER contact since 2017 than any other player in college football.
(h/t @LockedOnColts)pic.twitter.com/memAYaBdEZ
— PFF College (@PFF_College) May 1, 2020
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
Current ADP: RB28
My Ranking: RB24
Swift is one of the most well-rounded and complete backs we’ve seen enter the NFL in quite a while. He’s incredibly elusive in the open field, but yet is able to run with power in between the tackles. He’s excellent in pass protection and is a great receiver out of the backfield. While he’ll be splitting work with Kerryon Johnson this year, I fully expect Swift to be the lead back in this rotation. If that’s the case, Swift should easily return value on where he’s being drafted right now. With that being said, if Johnson were to miss time again with an injury, Swift could catapult into a top-10 back for fantasy football.
Today's Lesson:
D'Andre Swift messes with your mind on the field 🤯 pic.twitter.com/BJBEmneMLs
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 21, 2019
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
Current ADP: RB15
My Ranking: RB11
If you’re a running back in the Kansas City Chiefs offense, you’re valuable for fantasy football. If you have the talent that CEH does, you have the potential of finishing as a top-10 RB right out of the gates. Edwards-Helaire is one of the most elusive running backs in this year’s class and he’s a phenomenal pass-catcher to go along with it. There are going to be plenty of scoring opportunities for CEH in this offense and he’s going to be on a lot of fantasy championship rosters at the end of the year.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire forced 85 missed tackles in 2019😳pic.twitter.com/uNBB2emdmz
— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 20, 2020
JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP: RB42
My Ranking: RB32
Dobbins fell into one of the best long-term spots for fantasy football, but the initial prognosis was that he wasn’t going to be very relevant in 2020. The Ravens have several other talented options in their RB room and the touches were going to be hard to come by for Dobbins. After looking into it more though, I believe there’s room for Dobbins to flirt with RB2 value each and every week. Even with Ingram in the lineup, Dobbins should see enough work and have high enough efficiency to be a useful FLEX option. However, if Ingram misses time for any reason, we instantly need to put Dobbins into top-10 consideration at the position.
DUNK ON EM JK DOBBINSpic.twitter.com/69HwXfbw60
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) November 30, 2019
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Current ADP: RB27
My Ranking: RB42
Akers is being hyped up as a viable fantasy option this season, but I’m not sure if I’m quite there yet. Darrell Henderson is still on this roster and the Rams spent a third-round draft pick on him only a year ago. Additionally, Akers consistently displayed poor vision behind a terrible Florida State offensive line last season, which is unlikely to change or correct itself this quickly. The Rams offensive line was not improved drastically this offseason either, which means we can expect a bottom-15 unit again in 2020. Akers has a lot working against him, but he could find value if he becomes the pass-catching back out of the backfield. I personally believe he’s being over-drafted right now, but he has the athleticism to certainly make me look foolish when the season wraps up.
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Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.
