DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 8
My favorite stud for Week 8 is a familiar face. He’s joined by a receiver who has moved up the pecking order for targets due to injury and is coming off a big showing as my favorite value play. My top stack is a four-man option featuring a quarterback/receiver/receiver trio up against a bell-cow back.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): $8,200 at Bears
Even though the Saints have already had their bye, Kamara is the only player with more than 800 yards from scrimmage. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he has 824, a whopping 79 yards clear of the second-highest total sported by Clyde Edwards-Helaire. His seven combined rushing and receiving touchdowns are also tied with eight others for top honors. Toss in his 7.7 receptions per game, and Kamara has been a monster who should easily require at least $9,000 against the cap, yet he comes in $800 short of that figure. As such, he’s a bargain even as the most expensive back.
The Bears might not seem like a great matchup, as they’ve yielded the 11th-fewest DraftKings points per game to running backs this year, but the 4.40 yards per carry ceded to backs isn’t a number to run away from. Additionally, Kamara has the home-run ability to take advantage of Chicago’s susceptibility to getting ripped for long runs. Chicago has surrendered an average explosive run rate of 17%, the highest rate in the NFL this year, according to Sharp Football Stats. He’s likely to be chalky again this week, but rostering Kamara is eating good chalk.
Favorite Value Play
Rashard Higgins (WR – CLE): $4,200 vs. Raiders
Odell Beckham Jr. played just two snaps last week before suffering a torn ACL that will prematurely end his season. In OBJ’s absence, Higgins stepped up in a big way with a 6-110-0 line on six targets in a shootout with the Bengals. No other player bested 60 receiving yards for the Browns, as Harrison Bryant and Donovan Peoples-Jones totaled 56 receiving yards each, and Jarvis Landry failed to crack 50 receiving yards with only 48 on five receptions. Higgins’ six targets put him in a tie for the team lead with Landry.
Before last week’s triple-digit yardage explosion from Higgins, he had totaled only 53 receiving yards on five receptions through four contests. He did manage to score touchdowns in back-t0-back weeks before last week’s output, but as an ancillary piece in the passing attack of a run-heavy offense, he benefited greatly from OBJ leaving early due to injury and tight end Austin Hooper missing last week’s contest after undergoing an appendectomy.
Cleveland’s preference to lean on the running game isn’t ideal for any of their pass-catching options, Higgins included. However, he should compete with Landry for top option in the passing game, and his usage as a downfield threat awards him the opportunity to deliver even on a modest target total. According to Sports Info Solutions, among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 10 times, Higgins’ average depth of target of 13.6 yards downfield is tied for 29th deepest.
His usage is especially noteworthy against a Raiders defense that’s tied for the fifth-highest average explosive pass rate (10%) coughed up in 2020. Further, the Raiders’ pass defense isn’t very good as a whole, either. Football Outsiders ranks them 29th in Pass Defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): $6,200 vs. Titans
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN): $5,600 vs. Titans
A.J. Green (WR – CIN): $4,500 vs. Titans
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): $8,000 at Bengals
The second-highest over/under total of the week is in Cincinnati at 53.5 points, according to the BettingPros consensus line. It’s only a half-point behind the 54-point over/under total for the tilt between the 49ers and the Seahawks. The high over/under total shouldn’t come as a surprise here, as both teams have routinely played in shootouts thus far.
The Bengals have lost back-to-back shootouts. They scored \27 points in Week 6 in Indianapolis, and they hung 34 on the visiting Browns last week. Burrow hasn’t been perfect in his rookie season, but the NFL hasn’t overmatched him, either. He’s averaging 289.0 passing yards per game, is coming off of a magnificent 406-yard and three-touchdown showing, and has passed for 300 yards or more in five of his last six games. He’s also capable of adding points with his legs, as he has three rushing touchdowns and averages 17.3 rushing yards per game.
Priced outsider the top-10 signal callers, Burrow offers a high ceiling at an affordable salary. He also has a decent matchup against a Titans defense that Football Outsiders ranks 19th in Pass Defense DVOA.
Tyler Boyd ($6,600) is likely to be the chalkiest of his stacking partners as the most productive receiver on the Bengals, and he’s a strong play. However, pivoting from him to Higgins and Green is my preferred move. The Titans have been torched by wideouts, allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to the position.
Higgins has quickly become a prominent member of Cincinnati’s passing attack and has a route participation percentage of 87.2% this year, per Player Profiler. He’s parlaying his usage into production, too. Higgins ranks third on the team in targets (43) and receptions (27), second in receiving yards (410), and leads the team with three receiving touchdowns.
The rookie receiver is one of the deepest targeted higher-volume receivers with the 15th deepest average depth of target (14.3) among wideouts and tight ends targeted at least 25 times this year. A few spots lower, with an average depth of target of 13.9 yards, we have Green. The veteran receiver also sits at second in Intended Air Yards with 806.
Green disappointed through the first five weeks of the season, but he seems to be rounding into form. In Week 6, he turned 11 targets into an 8-96-0 line, and, last week, he totaled a 7-82-0 line on 13 targets. His sizable target totals and massive air yards totals bode well for a blowup game, and this matchup could be the magic formula for a big showing.
On the opposite side of the three-man Bengals stack is a monster of a running back, Derrick Henry. The beastly back was held to just 75 rushing yards and a touchdown as well as negative-three yards on a pair of receptions by the Steelers stout run defense, but the Bengals run defense isn’t stout.
The Bengals rank 21st in Run Defense DVOA. Backs have punched them in the mouth for a whopping 5.06 yards per carry, and they’re tied for the second-highest average explosive run rate (15%) yielded to the opposition this season. With the Titans favored by 5.5 points, this sets up favorably for Henry to eclipse 20 carries in a mouthwatering matchup.
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