We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top-10 picks for Week 16.
View the best NFL prop bets for Week 16 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet 
Justin Herbert (LAC – QB): OVER 260.5 Passing Yards
Against the Buffalo Bills last week, the Denver Broncos defense played without four of their top five cornerbacks. It showed as Josh Allen carved Denver’s depleted secondary up for 359 yards on 40 pass attempts. This week it is Justin Herbert’s turn to attack the Broncos’ backups. He is coming off a 314-yard performance despite Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both being on limited snap counts. Given that both of those receivers had 10 days to rest up for this game, it is only an added bonus to Herbert’s outlook if either receiver can play more than they did last week. Herbert’s 14.3 yards per completion last week ranked third among all quarterbacks, and more air yards should be in store this week.
Rob Gronkowski (TB – TE): OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards
Though Rob Gronkowski’s yardage total has not been great the last two weeks, he can look to build off the seven targets he saw against Atlanta’s defense last week. Gronk has seen at least six targets in three of the last four games, though he has surpassed this projected total just once in that span. He has averaged 13.1 YPC this season which ranks fifth-best among 42 qualified tight ends, so as long as he sees a similar amount of targets as he has had in the past he should see some positive regression to the mean as far as yardage goes.
C.J. Beathard (SF – QB): OVER 230.5 Passing Yards
49ers quarterback C.J. Beathard draws the start against Arizona this week after Nick Mullens was ruled out with an elbow injury. Beathard has completed 23 passes for 232 yards in significant action in Weeks 4 and 5, so bettors who are backing this over are likely hoping for 23 completions based on Beathard’s yards per completion average. However, he showed glimpses of being able to push the ball downfield late in their loss to the Cowboys last week. Beathard will look to build on his 100-yard and 20 yards per completion average in a game where they should be facing a negative game script early.
Russell Wilson (SEA – QB): UNDER 263.5 Passing Yards
The Rams defense is Russell Wilson’s kryptonite, as he is 7-10 SU in his career against them, and just 2-5 since Sean McVay has been head coach in Los Angeles. Week 10 against the Rams was the only time this season that Wilson completed less than 60% of his passes. He was also the team’s leading rusher in that game as they did not have the services of Chris Carson or Carlos Hyde. Seattle has the ability for a more balanced attack with those two healthy, so there will be less pressure to need to air it out with Wilson. That is a good thing, as Wilson has been pressured on 46% of his career dropbacks against Los Angeles. In addition, with shutdown cornerback, Jalen Ramsey once again likely limiting D.K. Metcalf’s upside, Wilson will have another tough day through the air with his biggest threat negated.
A.J. Brown (TEN – WR): OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown has surpassed this total in three of the last four games and is averaging 85.3 YPG over that span. However, his projection is lower entering this week as he is coming off a disappointing 44-yard effort against the Lions. The 55.5 point total in the Titans-Packers game is the highest of the week, and thus there should be a lot of pass attempts coming Brown’s way in what could turn into a shootout. Brown’s 10.1 yards per target this season ranks seventh-best among qualified receivers, and his 17.0 YPC since Week 12 are the second-highest in the league in that span. Brown could benefit from a big rushing day from Derrick Henry, as he will see more one-on-one coverage once the Packers commit more defenders to the box.
Darius Slayton (NYG – WR): OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards
Darius Slayton’s prop bets should see a massive boost as quarterback Daniel Jones looks like he has a great chance to start. Slayton has seen a combined 17 targets in the last two games but has pulled in less than half of those targets for receptions. He will look to build off the momentum of a 74-yard performance against the Browns last week, as that was his highest yardage total in the last four weeks. With the Giants as big underdogs against the Ravens, a negative game script should work in Slayton’s favor to exceed this projected total.
Jonathan Taylor (IND – RB): OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards
From Weeks 8-10, it seemed Jonathan Taylor was in the middle of a frustrating timeshare as he had a high of 11 carries and totaled just 61 yards over those three weeks. However, Taylor has clearly established himself as the workhorse of this backfield of late, as he has at least 83 yards rushing and has averaged 103.5 YPG over the last four games. The Steelers defense ranks eighth against the run, but also just allowed the Bengals to run for 152 yards. Pittsburgh’s offense held the ball for less than 28 minutes in that game, and the Colts will similarly look to dominate time of possession. Taylor’s lowest amount of carries in the last four weeks is 13, but he should not need much more than that to surpass this total.
Darren Waller (LV – TE): OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards
Raiders tight end Darren Waller has crushed this projected total in four of the last five games. He has seen 10+ targets in each of the last three games and is by far the team’s biggest threat in the passing game. This low projection was likely the result of the uncertainty of who would be playing quarterback for Las Vegas, but it appears Derek Carr is ready to give it a go after suffering a groin injury in the loss to the Chargers last weekend. That is a good sign for Waller, as he has seen seven or more targets from Carr in 11 of 14 games this year. Though the Dolphins are the league’s best scoring defense, they rank 18th against the pass allowing 238.1 YPG. Miami’s cornerback tandem of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard is one of the toughest on opposing wide receivers, which makes it even more likely that Carr will look Waller’s way.
Calvin Ridley (ATL – WR): OVER 81.5 Receiving Yards
As teammate Julio Jones has missed Weeks 12, 14, and 15, Calvin Ridley has been the benefactor statistically. Ridley has an average of just under 12 targets per game in that span and has totaled 337 receiving yards in those three weeks. In total, his 445 yards since Week 12 are the second-most in the league, and his 29 receptions are the fourth-most in that span. Jones has already been ruled out for Week 16 with a hamstring injury, so Ridley will once again get No. 1 wide receiver treatment. Granted, the matchup against the Chiefs will be tougher than it was for those weeks, but the negative game script still works in Ridley’s favor.
Russell Gage (ATL – WR): OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards
Just like Calvin Ridley has benefited from the absence of Julio Jones, so has Russell Gage. Gage has exceeded this projected total in four of the last five games and has been targeted at least seven times in four of the last five as well. He has had a reception of 24 or more yards in three straight weeks, so he should not need much volume to exceed this week’s projection. Gage is a chain-mover, as his 20 receptions on third-down are tied for ninth-most among all wide receivers. Gage should also benefit from a negative game script as the Falcons will have to air it out more than usual to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs’ offense.
Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week
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