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8 Early Undervalued Players (2021 Fantasy Football)


 
NFL free agency officially begins Wednesday, March 17th at 4 PM EST. However, we’re already seeing some trades and moves begin to take place. Shortly after free agency will be the NFL Draft and then it’ll be time to fully dive back into fantasy football. Of course, it’s never too early to start getting a feel for how rankings are shaking out early in the process. Below our writers name eight undervalued players according to the current Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).

Ranking referenced is using 0.5 PPR FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR)

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Q. Which player do you think is most undervalued by the Expert Consensus?

Cam Akers (RB – LAR) ECR: 27
Akers going off the board as the 15th running back seems like a steal. Akers is one of the few every-down backs in football, and the Rams’ addition of Matthew Stafford should only elevate the play-action game, opening more rushing lanes for Akers. The young rusher averaged nearly 24 touches/game during his final six outings in 2020. Moreover, only 12% of Jared Goff‘s passes went to running backs last season, compared to Stafford’s 22%. Akers will be an RB1 in 2020.
-Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyEvolves)

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) ECR: 65
If you look at Aiyuk’s rookie campaign, it does not jump off the page. He finished the 2020 season with 60 receptions for 748 yards and five touchdowns. He also added six rushes for 77 yards and two more scores. He was the 33rd ranked fantasy wide receiver. Nothing there screams that he is going to be an elite fantasy wideout. You should consider two things though when evaluating his season. First, the 49ers had three quarterbacks that started last year with no one quarterback starting more than eight games. Second, Aiyuk was not that involved in the offense early in the season. He had no games with double-digit targets in the first seven games of the season. From Week 8 to Week 16, he had four such games and another game with nine targets. He also battled COVID-19 and missed games in Week 9 and Week 11. Yet from Week 7 to Week 15, he was the 17th ranked fantasy wide receiver with 102.5 fantasy points and on a per-game basis, the only two wide receivers with more fantasy points per game in that stretch were Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. It is a small sample size, but Aiyuk looked incredible in the second half of the year, and with a normal offseason and more consistent quarterback play, Aiyuk has a chance to be a WR1 in 2021. He is extremely undervalued as the 65th overall player. That is a very small jump from where he finished the season last year. At that ranking, he has a chance to be one of the steals of 2021 fantasy drafts.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) ECR: 75
Higgins jumps off the page as one of the most undervalued at WR32 and the 75th ranked overall player. From Weeks 3-10, before quarterback Joe Burrow‘s season-ending knee injury, Higgins averaged nearly eight targets and 16.3 fantasy points per game. Had Burrow stayed healthy, Higgins would have cracked the 1,000-yard receiving mark. Nonetheless, he still finished as the WR28 in fantasy. If A.J. Green is gone and the Bengals offensive line can keep Burrow upright, Higgins should yield high-end WR2 or even dip into WR1 numbers this season.
– Bonnie Robinson (@FantasyQueenB)

Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI) ECR: 171
With how special some of the rookie wide receivers were in 2020, some forget how good some of the late-round prospects were. Among the late-round wide receivers, not many were as productive as Mooney was for the Chicago Bears in 2020. Mooney concluded his rookie campaign with 61 receptions, 631 receiving yards, and four touchdowns despite having Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles under center. Plus, the first-year wideout had to share targets with Allen Robinson. But with all signs pointing toward Robinson departing in free agency, Mooney is poised for a more prominent role in 2021. While his quarterback situation is still up in the air, there is expected to be a ton of vacated targets for the Bears heading into next season. The former fourth-round pick out of Tulane is currently WR65 in the ECR and is the 171st overall player. Unless Chicago brings in a big-name wide receiver during the offseason, Mooney could be a massive steal heading into the 2021 season.
– Skyler Carlin (@skyler_carlin)

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) ECR: 62
Lockett is this year’s (at least currently) most undervalued player by the Expert Consensus. Ranked as the WR25 – a WR3 in 12-team leagues – in 0.5 PPR, analysts anticipate Lockett performing well below his WR9 finish in 2020. Even in the prior two years going back to 2018, Lockett has finished no lower than WR15 overall in 0.5 PPR formats. This year’s ranking presumably reflects the sour taste left in fantasy managers’ mouths following his 15 catches for 200 yards and three touchdowns performance in Week 7 of last season against the Cardinals, where he only surpassed 70 yards in a game once and scored just three touchdowns total over that 10-game span. Although I agree that having Lockett as the WR1 on my team for the upcoming season would make me anxious each week, I’d love to get him as complementary piece of my WR corps. Per my Measuring Consistency article in January where I analyzed the top performers’ (at each primary position) weekly average production, Lockett was by far the most volatile player among the top 36 WRs. However, at WR25, Lockett can be drafted in the middle rounds as your WR2 or even a WR3, which offers a potentially massive return on investment; he’d easily be a potential league winner at that cost. Alternatively, rumors surrounding Russell Wilson possibly leaving the Seahawks would surely dampen Lockett’s 2021 performance, so managers should definitely keep an eye out for updates. But if personnel (primarily Wilson) and Lockett’s consensus rank remains largely unmoved, he’d easily be one of my most-rostered players across my teams.
– Jared Lese (@JaredL_FF)

J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) ECR: 29
Dobbins as the RB16 and the 29th overall is downright disrespectful. Over his last six games in 2020, he averaged over 17 fantasy points per game and scored at least one touchdown in all six games. Yes, Gus Edwards is still there to frustrate managers by vulturing touchdowns, but Edwards has a mere 22 receptions over his three-year career and is no threat to take the passing work away from Dobbins. The run-heavy offense the Ravens have will be able to support both backs, but Dobbins is more explosive, a better receiver and is overall the better player. Dobbins is a top-12 running back in 2021, getting him at RB16 is a steal.
– Geoff Lambert (@GeoffLambert77)

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) ECR: 28
How in the world do we have Jefferson in the 3rd round at 28th overall? The need for running backs is too much when players like Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, and D’Andre Swift are ranked ahead of him. While his touchdown upside takes a slight downgrade due to Adam Thielen, there is no questioning who the number one receiver in Minnesota is going forward. Ignoring his first two games of his rookie year where Jefferson had yet to establish himself, he averaged 18.4 PPR points per game from Week 3 on. That would have ranked him fourth in football behind only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs. Jefferson is en elite wide receiver, and you can expect those numbers to hold in 2021.He should be drafted towards the front of the 2nd round with top-5 overall upside.
Justin Johnson (@JJ_JetFlyin)

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) ECR: 63
Prescott is coming at an injury discount as he is currently the QB6, which seems egregious. He was on an eye-popping 6,000-yard pace prior to his Week 6 injury and in Mike McCarthy’s offense he should have plenty of chances to continue to put up numbers. The Cowboys have an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions and with Prescott’s reported massive contract extension, the offense should run through him. Want another reason to draft Dak? The Dallas defense was historically bad last year and that unit won’t make a massive leap this year. Look for Dallas to be in plenty of shootouts, which means plenty of points for Prescott to pile up.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)


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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with Starting Your Own Fantasy Football League or head to more advanced strategy – like What is the Right Amount of Risk to Absorb on Draft Day? – to learn more.

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