It’s only March, but all the player movement we’ve seen the past few weeks already has me geeked for the 2022 season. The NFL draft is still a ways off, but otherwise, most of the big offseason moves have likely taken place. While looking at the early 2022 Draft Rankings, four players jumped out at me that will probably end up on many of my teams this year. They will all be in their second seasons, and I think they could break out in a big way.
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Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) was RB17 in 2021 (half-point PPR) despite splitting snaps with Melvin Gordon (RB – FA) in every game except for one. In that game, against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 13, Williams rushed for 102 yards and added six catches for 76 yards and a TD. Gordon is currently a free agent, and even if he re-signs with the Broncos, this should be Williams’ backfield in 2022. At 220 pounds, Williams has the size to be a workhorse back. If he gets the snaps, he has RB1 overall potential.
Beyond the small sample size of Williams’ dominance past Week 13, a few stats give me confidence. First, 74.2 percent of his yards came after contact, which is the highest percentage of RBs who had 100+ attempts last season. Second, his broken tackle percentage was 21.7 percent. Only D’Ernest Johnson (RB – CLE), who just made the cutoff with exactly 100 carries, had a higher percentage. The bottom line is that Williams is a hard dude to put down and doesn’t need much space to make things happen.
In addition, Williams is a surprisingly good pass catcher. He caught 43 balls last year and was targeted on 20 percent of his routes. Russell Wilson (QB – DEN) may not check down as often as Teddy Bridgewater (QB – MIA) did last year, but Williams should still see his fair share of catches in a much-improved offense. This segues nicely to my last point. Williams only scored seven TDs last year. With a much better offense around him, more snaps, and his ability to break tackles, this total could double in 2022. Are you with me yet?
Last season wasn’t the first time Javonte Williams had to share a backfield. He also did so at North Carolina with Michael Carter (RB – NYJ). Playing alongside the bigger Williams in college, I wasn’t sure how much of a workload Carter could handle heading into the 2021 season. Though I loved his opportunity for touches with the Jets, he felt like he was destined to become a third-down, pass-catching specialist in the NFL. Carter proved me wrong, however, and showed how dynamic he could be in a four-game stretch from Week 7 through Week 10. He averaged 44 snaps, 13.8 carries, and 5.5 receptions per game during that span. Halfway through the Week 11 contest against Miami, an injury ended his run, but he had already shown his capabilities.
More important than that four-game stretch, however, were Carter’s stats. Like his former teammate, Carter was excellent at breaking tackles, ranking fifth in the league with a 19 percent BT rate for RBs with at least 100 carries. Also, like Williams, Carter did most of his damage after contact – 69 percent of his yards, to be exact. The Jets weren’t afraid to use him between the tackles either, as 52 percent of his carries came inside.
New York hasn’t added another RB to their stable via free agency. They could still draft one, but unless they use an early pick, it seems safe to say that Carter will be their lead back in 2022. Most view him as an RB3, but I think he has high RB2 potential and would be very comfortable walking away from a draft with him as one of my starting RBs.
Expectations were so high for Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) that his inaugural season was considered by many to be a disappointment. Never mind that he had the second-most receiving yards by a rookie tight end in league history and the third most receptions. However, the lack of TDs – he only had one – killed his fantasy production and reduced him to TE7 (half-point PPR) for the season.
That figures to change in 2022, however. After all, the man is a 6’6″ athletic freak who garnered 20 percent of his team’s targets last year. So it doesn’t matter if Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL), an unproven rookie, or some other journeyman QB is under center for the Falcons. Pitts will get his. He’s too talented and too big of a part of the Falcon’s future not to.
The current ECR has Pitts ranked as the third-best tight end, so it appears I’m not the only one on his bandwagon. I have a feeling that many fantasy managers will struggle with this, however, and he’ll be drafted after the likes of George Kittle (TE – SF), Darren Waller (TE – LV), and maybe even Rob Gronkowski (TE – FA) if he resigns with the Bucs. I, for one, would gladly take Pitts over all three of these players – especially if I can get him a round or two later.
Coming out of college, the buzz surrounding Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) was that he could be the fastest receiver in the NFL. Most thought, however, that given his lack of size, he’d be more of a deep threat for the Dolphins and a boom-or-bust type for fantasy. Then he went out and led the team in all receiving categories and set a rookie record with 104 catches.
Interestingly, Waddle was the opposite of what you’d expect with a low aDOT (Average Depth of Target) of only 6.8 yards and a middle-of-the-pack YAC (Yards After Catch) of 4.5 yards. He played like a possession receiver as a rookie, despite his blazing speed and diminutive frame. All this did was prove that he’s a great route runner and can be the top receiving option on his team. The big plays will come; it’s just a matter of time.
Waddle finished the 2021 season as WR16 in half-point PPR leagues and is currently ranked as WR10 in the ECR. So expectations are pretty high for him in 2022. The recent addition of Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) may knock him down a bit in fantasy manager’s eyes, but it could be a good thing for him. Hill will demand a lot of attention from opposing defenses and will often draw the best cornerback. The field could open up for Waddle, allowing him to make plays with his legs. Could the Dolphins have two Top 10 WRs on their hands this year?
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