When it comes to the NFL Draft, the easiest thing to do is to write an article about which players will bust because the odds of being right are definitely in your favor.
From 2000 to 2010, the NFL held 11 Drafts. I calculated how many players were drafted each year, how many had a Career AV of 100 or more, and how many had a Career AV of 80-99. Career AV stands for Approximate Value, and it is a number that Pro Football Reference assigns to a player each season that attempts to rank his production.
For some context, the player with the highest Career AV in NFL history is Tom Brady at 184. The highest AV for a season was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 with 26.
Players with Highest Career AV Drafted Each Year: 2000 to 2010
| Year | Total Players Draft | Players Over 100 Career AV | Players 80-99 Career AV | Player Highest AV | Round Selected |
| 2000 | 254 | 2 | 1 | Tom Brady (184) | 6th Round, 199 Pick |
| 2001 | 246 | 5 | 5 | Drew Brees (167) | 2nd Round, 32nd Pick |
| 2002 | 261 | 2 | 1 | Julius Peppers (130) | 1st Round, 2nd Pick |
| 2003 | 262 | 3 | 5 | Terrell Suggs (110) | 1st Round, 10th Pick |
| 2004 | 255 | 4 | 3 | Phillip Rivers (149) | 1st Round, 4th Pick |
| 2005 | 255 | 3 | 5 | Aaron Rodgers (159) | 1st Round, 24th Pick |
| 2006 | 255 | 3 | 2 | Jahari Evans (114) | 4th Round, 108th Pick |
| 2007 | 255 | 1 | 6 | Adrian Peterson (101) | 1st Round, 7th Pick |
| 2008 | 248 | 2 | 4 | Matt Ryan (144) | 1st Round, 3rd Pick |
| 2009 | 256 | 1 | 2 | Matthew Stafford (113) | 1st Round, 1st Pick |
| 2010 | 255 | 1 | 3 | Ndamukong Suh (100) | 1st Round, 2nd Pick |
| Total | 2,802 | 27 | 37 | – | – |
Career AV tends to favor quarterbacks more. Ryan Tannehill has a Career AV of 101, and Earl Thomas has a career AV of 98. I do not think anyone thinks that Tannehill is a better player than Thomas. Still, Tannehill ends up with a higher AV because the quarterback position is more important than defensive back. Thomas also only played from 2010 to 2019, and he was not as dominant in the second half of his career as he was in the first half of his career. The combination of playing a more important position and being able to play it for longer leads to quarterbacks having the highest career AV.
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, the chances of drafting a player that has a decade worth of impact are scarce. Only 2.28% of the players drafted from 2000 to 2010 have a Career AV of over 80 and only 0.96% have a Career AV of over 100. That does not mean that players with less than an 80 Career AV are worthless players. Dez Bryant had an excellent career and his Career AV is only 61.
This number shows just how hard it is to have a lengthy NFL career with stardom from beginning to end, but that is what we expect from these players, especially those taken in the first round.
The other thing that data shows is that as much as we like to rave about the upside of the Day-three player, the safe money is still in the top-10. While Matthew Stafford was the only first-overall player to be the best player in his draft class, five of the players who ended up being first in their class were taken in the Top-five, and seven were taken in the top-10. The outliers were Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000, Jahari Evans in the fourth round in 2006, and Drew Brees in the second round in 2001.
All draft picks are risky because the exception is having a stellar career, and the norm is being out of the league in less than five years. However, some players are riskier than others, and this is my list of some of the players carrying the most risk heading into the 2022 NFL Draft.
QB
I could put every quarterback that has a first or second-round grade on this list. This may be the weakest quarterback class since 2013. The most significant adjustment from the college level to the NFL level is the game’s speed and being able to identify pressure and make reads quickly enough to avoid sacks and turnovers.
Malik Willis was sacked 51 times last year, which is insane for a quarterback playing in any conference. He also had a career sack percentage of 8.8 percent. People can tell me how good he looked at the Senior Bowl, the NFL Combine, and his Pro Day all they want, but the game’s speed at Liberty versus the speed of the game at the NFL are night and day.
Willis taking 51 sacks against that level of competition gives me concerns about his ability to stay in the pocket and make a quick read. He has the legs to make him a playmaker early in his career, but he is only a shade under 6′ 1″ and 219 pounds. If he will be both a runner and take sacks on 8.8 percent of his throws, I question if he will be healthy enough to sign a new contract after his rookie contract expires. His physical talents are off the charts, but his high sack numbers at Liberty and lack of size should give NFL front offices cause for concern.
Matt Coral helped lead the Ole Miss Rebels to the Sugar Bowl with 3,349 yards passing, 20 passing touchdowns, 614 rushing yards, and 11 more rushing touchdowns. He suffered a high ankle sprain in the Sugar Bowl, but he was able to throw at his Pro Day, and his release looked good, and he looked healthy. Many analysts are high on Corral’s arm talent and think he could be a great quarterback in the NFL.
My concern is whether Corral is polished enough as a pocket passer, as Pro Football Focus calculated that 2,207 out of his 3,349 passing yards came off of play-action. He will have to show there is more to his game than RPO and play-action passing at the NFL level. That was a criticism of players like Baker Mayfield and Mitchell Trubisky. They relied too much on play-action passing and rolling out of the pocket to be consistent in the NFL. There is no way that Corral can sustain that Ole Miss ratio of play-action passing in the NFL, he is going to have to expand his game, and that is risky if a team takes him expecting him to be ready to operate from the pocket early in his first year.
RB
Kyren Williams (RB – Notre Dame)
It is unlikely that any running back will be taken in the first round this year, so it is not as costly to take a flyer on a risky player on day two or day three of the NFL Draft. Kyren Williams does not have a big build. He is only 5′ 9″ and 194 pounds. At the NFL Combine, he did not show the speed teams were hoping for from a player of that size. He ran his 40-yard dash in just 4.65 seconds, his vertical jump was only 32,” and his broad jump was only 9′ and 8.” He looked very slow for a running back of his build.
That does not mean he cannot be a great player. He tallied 2,799 total yards and 31 touchdowns over his last two years at Notre Dame. He was a very productive player that had six games with at least 20 carries and 18 games with at least 15 carries. He also had 78 receptions in two years, which means he should be able to contribute to the passing game early. The big question is whether he has enough speed and athleticism at that size to be a difference-maker in the NFL. Reading holes and instinctive running cannot be measured in a 40-yard dash time, but it is never ideal to be slower than some linebackers tackling him.
Jashaun Corbin (RB – Florida State)
I am always nervous about running backs that do not have a ton of touches in college, and we suddenly expect them to be starters at the NFL level that can handle 15-18 touches per game. Jashaun Corbin had 320 carries and 60 receptions in his four-year college career. He had more than 20 carries in a game just one time, 22 carries against Texas State in 2019 when he was with Texas A&M. Last year, he did not have a single game with more than 15 carries, and his 100-yard games came against Notre Dame, Jacksonville State, Louisville, and Massachusetts.
Corbin was not particularly flashy at the NFL Combine. He posted a 4.59-second 40-yard dash, 34″ vertical leap, and 9′ 10″ broad jump. Running back is not a very deep position in the NFL Draft this year, CBS Sports are projecting Corbin as the fifth-best running back and 82nd overall prospect. Given his lack of work as a workhorse back and his average NFL Combine performance, a team would be taking a significant risk using a third or fourth-round pick on Corbin.
WR
Jameson Williams (WR – Alabama)
Jameson Williams looks like he can play in the NFL. He is 6′ 2″ and 189 pounds. He he is coming off a season that saw him tally 79 receptions for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns. In recent years, Alabama has a great track record of producing NFL wide receivers, most notably Julio Jones and Amari Cooper. The issue with Williams is health. He suffered a torn ACL in the National Championship Game, which means he may not be ready for Week 1 of the NFL Season. That injury will also limit his ability to participate in OTAs and training camp.
I do not view a torn ACL as a career-ending injury for a young player, so there is no reason that Williams cannot play this year and go on to have a great career. The problem is that he could not run the 40-yard dash or do any of the NFL Combine drills, and the only thing you have to judge him on is the tape. Williams will be a first-round pick, so the team that takes him will have to be comfortable with waiting for him to be healthy and bringing him along slowly. The worst possible outcome would be rushing him back too fast and having him suffer another injury.
Drake London is another player coming into the NFL Draft process with an injury. London posted 88 receptions for 1,084 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in just eight starts in 2021. He ended up fracturing his ankle and missing the rest of the season. He is a big wide receiver at 6′ 4″ and 209 pounds. It would be nice to see what his 40-yard time would have been because my question about him is 12.3 yards per reception and his ability to be a deep threat in the NFL.
There are plenty of bigger receivers that run 40-yard dashes in the 4.50 range and are great NFL wide receivers. Michael Thomas ran a 4.57-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and he has been a very productive wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints. Like London, he was a bigger receiver who did not blow away the NFL Combine with his speed. However, London is a risk with that ankle injury, and it is impossible to evaluate him and see how his workout numbers measure up with his tape.
Treylon Burks is an example of what could be happening to London if he were healthy enough to work out. Burks is 6′ 3″ and 225 pounds, and he put together a great season at Arkansas with 66 receptions for 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, he went to the NFL Combine and posted a 4.55 40-yard dash and a 33″ vertical. Now teams are wondering if he has elite athleticism to play at the NFL level.
If Burks had run a 4.45-second 40-yard dash, he probably would have been a top-10 pick. He is riskier at the 4.55 second time because teams have to reconcile the tape with his workout times. I also think teams have to be concerned that he had only 66 receptions in 12 games, and he had four games with less than 45 yards. The landing spot could be critical for him. He would have a lot less risk playing with someone like Aaron Rodgers instead of Jared Goff, but you could say that for any receiver in this NFL Draft.
Kevin Austin (WR – Notre Dame)
Kevin Austin had the opposite problem that Burks had. Austin had too good of an NFL Combine. He posted a 4.43-second 40-yard dash, a 39″ vertical, and a 132″ broad jump. That makes you wonder why a player with that speed and jumping ability posted only 54 receptions for 996 yards and seven touchdowns in three seasons. Austin had only five games with more than 80-yards receiving and only three 100-yard games. He found the end zone in only six of his 17 games.
Receivers depend on their quarterbacks, though and college QB Jack Coan did not possess elite NFL arm talent to help Austin breakout last year. Coan is ranked as the 287th prospect in this draft class by CBS Sports, and his downside is that his arm strength is barely adequate for an NFL quarterback, and he needs to work on his deep touch. Taking Austin is a gamble. He could be a diamond-in-the-rough talent that underachieved due to poor quarterback play, or he could be a very talented workout phenom that lacks the football skills to play wide receiver at the NFL level.
Other Positions
Daniel Faalele (OT – Minnesota)
To call Daniel Faalele big would be an understatement. The man stands 6′ 8″ and 384 pounds. He’s only played four seasons of competitive football, and he is still learning the game, which alone is risky. He also sat out the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns. We have no idea if his size will be a liability handling faster pass rushers off the edge. He could be an elite offensive lineman who can anchor an offensive line for a decade or a mismatch problem against quicker defenders that makes him a liability to teams that pass the ball a lot.
David Ojabo probably would have been a Top-15 pick if he had not torn his Achilles Heal at his pro day. There is speculation that he might be able to play later in the 2022 season, but he is too early in his recovery to know that for sure. He is 6′ 4″ and 250 pounds, but he can also run a 4.55 40-yard dash, and he posted a 35″ vertical at the NFL Combine. His athleticism is off the charts. But does he lose any of that explosiveness with a torn Achilles? That is a big question for whatever team ends up selecting him.
Myjai Sanders (Edge – Cincinnati)
Myjai Sanders is an edge rusher that is only 6′ 5″ and 228 pounds. That is a very slender frame for a player looking to play the edge. The good news is that he is a three-year starter at Cincinnati that was a first-team All-American Athletic Conference selection as both a junior and a senior. I think he will need a position change to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme, and he is probably going to need to put on some weight to prevent him from being a liability against the run. It is always risky to take a player you know will have to switch positions immediately as it creates more uncertainty.
Derek Stingley Jr. is a first-round graded player because of what he showed in 2019. That year he looked like an elite cornerback on the best team in the country. However, he played only 10 games combined in 2020 and 2021, and he was not able to work out at the NFL Combine due to a Lisfranc injury in his left foot that shut down his 2021 season in September. The good news is he showed well at his pro day, with 4.37 second 40-yard dash time, 38.5″ vertical jump, and a 10′ 2″ broad jump. Nobody is questioning his athleticism. Everyone knew he would kill the workout numbers if healthy. The question with him is a lack of college experience and a lack of durability.
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Derek Lofland is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland
