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Dynasty Trade Value Risers & Fallers (2022 Fantasy Football)

May 6, 2022


 
We recently updated our dynasty trade value chart following the 2022 NFL Draft. Here are a few players who have seen their values rise and fall along with actionable trade advice for each.

Risers

Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT)
Superflex Dynasty Trade Value: 33 (+10)

After a chaotic turn of events, the 2022 NFL Draft saw Kenny Pickett as the only quarterback selected in the first two rounds. While there are certainly fair questions to be asked about how high Pickett’s ceiling is, he finds himself in a tremendous situation for both NFL and fantasy football purposes. In a talent-laden offense with weapons like Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris, and the team’s second round selection George Pickens out of University of Georgia, the only thing standing in Pickett’s way is earning the starting job. How long it takes for Pickett to supplant veteran reclamation project Mitchell Trubisky in 2022 is uncertain, but first round draft capital investment tells fantasy managers all they need to know about the future stability that comes with Pickett as a reliable, high-floor QB2 in superflex leagues.
– C.H. Herms

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


Derek Carr (QB – LV)
Superflex Dynasty Trade Value: 48 (+4)

Last year Carr was the QB13, including the QB9 over the first three weeks of the season. Unfortunately, the Raiders’ already poor receiving core became awful after the Henry Ruggs situation and Darren Waller‘s injury. Yet, Carr had a career-high 4,804 passing yards last season.

The Raiders added Davante Adams during the offseason, giving Carr the best weapon of his career. With Adams, a healthy Waller, and Hunter Renfrow, Carr should have his first career top-10 finish in 2022.
– Mike Fanelli

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
Dynasty Trade Value: 63 (+6)

The Jets selected Breece Hall at the top of Round 2, signifying his status as the team’s locked-in RB1 for the foreseeable future. Rumor was that the Jets were so enamored with the Iowa State product that they were considering trading back into Round 1 to take him.

Hall’s three-down skill set – 82 catches over three seasons, just two drops in his last two seasons – suggests he never has to come off the field, and the sheer volume he garners will vault him into redraft top-20 running back territory. A workload of approximately 240 touches – based on ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay’s fantasy projections – would put Hall inside the top-15 considering every running back last season that hit that touch mark finished inside that threshold.

Pairing his high-end workload with an off-the-charts college production profile – over 4,500 yards from scrimmage and 50 touchdowns – and explosiveness makes him worthy of the 1.01 in rookie drafts in both superflex and non-superflex formats.

His early RB23 best-ball ADP is nine spots below my early ranking of him (RB14).
– Andrew Erickson

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


James Cook (RB – BUF)
Dynasty Trade Value: 23 (+20)

James Cook has risen massively in my rankings after the NFL Draft. Yes, the landing spot with the Buffalo Bills is lucrative, but the second-round draft capital the team invested in him is what speaks volumes. The team has told us all offseason that they want to add a back with receiving talent, and Cook has it. Over the last three seasons, he’s ranked 28th, ninth, and 21st in yards per route run among running backs with 15 or more targets (per PFF). Add in his 3.59 yards after contact per attempt over his collegiate career, and you have a player that could overtake Devin Singletary in short order and earn a three-down workload (per PFF).
– Derek Brown

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
Dynasty Trade Value: 19 (+13)

Dameon Pierce lands in a wide-open backfield where he’ll compete with the island of misfit running back toys for work. Pierce could earn work immediately with only cast-offs Marlon Mack, Rex Burkhead, Dare Ogunbowale, Royce Freeman, and Darius Anderson on the depth chart. His long-term footing is questionable, with only fourth-round draft capital attached to his name, but he’s worth taking a shot on in the early second round of rookie drafts. Pierce has the size and pass game skills to operate as a three-down back. He can be the preferred passing-down option in a committee at his floor.
– Derek Brown

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


Drake London (WR – ATL)
Dynasty Trade Value: 52 (+6)

Arguably the most talented receiver in the draft? Check. Drafted by a team that should be in plenty of negative gamescripts? Check. Minimal competition for targets? Check. London should get plenty of balls thrown his way for an Atlanta team that will roll out Olamide Zaccheaus and Auden Tate alongside him. Kyle Pitts should be the only real threat in the way or target share so volume shouldn’t be a issue. The only thing that might hold London back from WR2/3 numbers this year is the quality of targets with Marcus Mariota throwing him the ball. Mariota has a career completion percentage of just 62.8% which would rank 25th among quarterbacks for the 2021 season. That inconsistency will plague him this season but if he gets 10+ targets a game, it may not matter. He should be the first rookie receiver off the board in all formats.
– Jason Kamlowsky

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
Dynasty Trade Value: 43 (+8)

237. That’s the number of targets the depatures of Marquise Brown, Devonta Freeman and Sammy Watkins vacated in Baltimore. This could be a sign Baltimore is ready to go all-in on Bateman as their WR1 of the future, a golden opportunity for him, or both. It will be an uphill battle for touchdowns but if those fall into place, he’ll become an asset to your fantasy squad.
– TJ Horgan

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


Jalen Tolbert (WR – DAL)
Dynasty Trade Value: 15 (+7)

Jalen Tolbert dominated small-school competition earning his third-round draft status on the way to big D. Tolbert should be a starter in three-wide sets from Day 1, with stalwart Noah Brown and James Washington as his main competition. Michael Gallup isn’t a sure thing to be ready by Week 1 of this season, so the Cowboys could open the season with Tolbert competing with Dalton Schultz for looks behind CeeDee Lamb. The target totem pole is congested, but landing on a top ten scoring offense with a possible runway to earn early-season volume is a positive.
– Derek Brown

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


Alec Pierce (WR – IND)
Dynasty Trade Value: 11 (+8)

The Colts are gearing up to throw the ball more with their quarterback upgrade in Matt Ryan. Alec Pierce fills a huge need for this franchise. Parris Campbell hasn’t been able to stay on the field despite his raw talent, and the franchise lost Zach Pascal in the offseason. Pierce is an athletic freak who will help stretch the field from Day 1. While his route tree was limited at Cincinnati, he has the raw talent to develop into a player that can contend with Michael Pittman for the team lead in targets yearly if he hits the upper range of his outcomes. His blend of athletic profile and surprising draft capital is worth taking a shot on aggressively in dynasty rookie drafts.
– Derek Brown

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


David Njoku (TE – CLE)
Dynasty Trade Value: 20 (+3)

The Cleveland Browns placed the franchise tag on TE David Njoku who will have an opportunity to thrive in the Browns offense that will be without Austin Hooper and Jarvis Landry. The addition of Deshaun Watson at quarterback is a huge upgrade for the Browns offense. Watson is a playmaker who is efficient and owns the second-best QBR in NFL history. Njoku is an absolute athletic freak who caught 36 passes on 53 targets for 475 yards and four scores last season. Njoku only played in 61% of the Browns offensive snaps last season. The loss of Hooper elevates Njoku to the TE1 in the tight-end friendly offense orchestrated by Kevin Stefanski. The former Hurricane will have a more significant role in the passing game, and I love his upside as one of the offense’s most explosive players.
– Dennis Sosic

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY

CTAs

Fallers

Malik Willis (QB – TEN)
Superflex Dynasty Trade Value: 34 (-16)

With an unexpected fall to the third round of the NFL Draft, it’s no surprise Malik Willis’ stock has also fallen in fantasy football. Willis will likely be learning the ropes behind Ryan Tannehill for the next two seasons in Tennessee, and at his current value, he’s a solid stash at a low price.
– Nate Polvogt

Buy, Sell, or Hold: BUY


Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
Superflex Dynasty Trade Value: 21 (-7)

Despite some talk to the contrary, the Giants aren’t showing much faith in Jones. They chose not to pick up his 5th year option which probably means he is drawing dead as the starter there. He hardly has the look of a long-term fantasy option as he’s had 57 turnovers in just 27 games as a starter. Jones is more than likely going to settle in as a backup somewhere after this season meaning you need to move him while he still has tangible value.
– Jason Kamlowsky

Buy, Sell, or Hold: SELL


Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
Dynasty Trade Value: 47 (-11)

Gibson is a player previously written about as part of my Running Backs to Avoid prior to the NFL Draft, and the Commanders drafting Brian Robinson out of the University of Alabama in the third round only makes his outlook worse. If fantasy managers were concerned about how Gibson would share the rushing workload with J.D. McKissic in 2022, imagine how they feel now looking at a three-headed nightmare now. A former third-round selection himself, Gibson has a very fragile standing in the Washington offense. At this point, it is a “ride out the storm” situation for dynasty managers who did not move on pre-draft.
– C.H. Herms

Buy, Sell, or Hold: HOLD


Michael Carter (RB – NYJ)
Dynasty Trade Value: 17 (-16)

Michael Carter was trending up ahead of the NFL Draft, but the addition of RB Breece Hall in the second round has dinged his value. Expectations are that Hall will take over the majority of the carries, including a portion of the receiving work. Unless the Jets decide to ease Hall into the offense, this leaves Carter out in the cold for dynasty relevance.
– Nate Polvogt

Buy, Sell, or Hold: SELL


Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA)
Dynasty Trade Value: 16 (-6)

Penny was always a sell high candidate. Yes, he finished the 2021 season on fire. However, he has missed nearly half the games in his career because of injuries. Furthermore, Penny only earned a one-year deal from the Seahawks even after his historic finish. Then, they used one of their first three draft picks on Kenneth Walker despite having several holes on their roster. Between the drafting of Walker and his injury history, sell Penny while you can.
– Mike Fanelli

Buy, Sell, or Hold: SELL


A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)
Dynasty Trade Value: 58 (-11)

There are both pros and cons to A.J. Brown’s move from the Titans to the Eagles. The primary cons are that he’ll see more competition for targets with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert on the Eagles’ offense. He also moves from the most run-heavy offense in the league last season to the second-most run-heavy offense in the league. One might assume the Eagles’ overall offensive philosophy would change with this trade, but that remains to be seen. Brown is going to need Jalen Hurts to take a step forward overall as a passer as well. Per PlayerProfiler, Hurts’ true completion percentage of 66.9% ranked No. 31 across the league. The biggest pro of this transition to Philadelphia for Brown is that the Eagles’ offense figures to be better than what he had in Tennessee. You can argue having Smith and Goedert on his offense is both a pro and a con. It is a pro because they should take coverage away from him and that should lead to him seeing less of a focus from opposing defenses, but also a con because of a potential drop in overall volume he might see. Overall, I do believe inconsistency might be Brown’s biggest problem. He is without a doubt going to have his big plays and big games, but you have to understand he’ll also come with weeks where Smith and Goedert take advantage of the attention Brown will see on a weekly basis.
– Ari Koslow

Buy, Sell, or Hold: SELL


Trey McBride (TE – ARI)
Dynasty Trade Value: 23 (-4)

With DeAndre Hopkins slated to miss the first six games of the season, the Arizona Cardinals might have no choice but to feature more 12 personnel early and utilize their shiny new second-round pick, Trey McBride. The three-year contract that Zach Ertz just inked to stay in Arizona has turned McBride into southwest Dallas Goedert. A player with the talent to become an upper-echelon receiving tight end that the volume-sucking Ertz blocks. The Cardinals can move on from Ertz as soon as 2023 by saving 2 million against the cap if they cut him, but the more likely outcome, if they were to go that route, would be in 2024. If they cut him before that season, they would save eight million, so McBride could be stuck in this purgatory for the next two seasons.
– Derek Brown

Buy, Sell, or Hold: SELL


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