Value is the name of the game in fantasy football. You’re doing it wrong if you aren’t exposing value by taking advantage of market holes and dodging player landmines based on overpriced ADPs. We build the foundation of a championship-winning roster by aggressively attacking the mispriced players, not by reaching on overvalued players and teams that are primed for busting.
Leveraging my 2022 fantasy football rankings is a great way to start identifying overvalued candidates, but I’ve taken it a step further by pinpointing a select few players who are strong fades at their current price tags. These players are clear “avoids” in the early-to-middle rounds (top-100 overall selections) who could end up torpedoing your season like Calvin Ridley, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chris Carson, Allen Robinson, Mike Davis, Kenny Golladay, Robbie Anderson and Trey Sermon were in 2021.
These players all fall higher in most early ADPs than in my overall rankings, which is why I rarely draft them in fantasy drafts. And until the market decides to lower the price on these players — because everybody has a price — I’ll continue to avoid them.
2022 Busts
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) ADP: 19 OVR, WR7
There’s no reason to believe that Deebo Samuel will be able to sustain that same elite production from last season. Instead, natural regression is firmly in play, considering that no WR earned more fantasy points above expectation than Samuel did in 2021. And that number doesn’t come as a surprise considering that nearly 30% of Samuel’s fantasy points came from rushing alone — 365 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns — and that Samuel scored three touchdowns of 75-plus yards.
Samuel’s usage in the San Francisco offense seems destined to change with him voicing displeasure over his RB/WR hybrid deployment. That’s also not factoring in the rushing attempts and short-to-intermediate targets that Samuel could lose with mobile second-year QB Trey Lance becoming the starter or increased target competition from a fully healthy George Kittle and out-of-the-doghouse Brandon Aiyuk.
Aiyuk’s 2022 training camp has gone completely different than a year ago, with the coaches citing how much he has progressed and developed. I fully expect him to be a fantasy force in 2022. All day every day in Round 9.
It’s forgotten that Samuel’s fantasy numbers and target share would have dipped during the second half of the season had it not been for the rushing, with Aiyuk and Kittle both fully installed in the offense.
There’s no guarantee that the planets align for Samuel — in fact, it’s very unlikely — that made him a fantasy revelation in 2021. However, his lengthy injury track record dating back to college should also not be overlooked, nor should the overall run-heavy nature of the 49ers’ offense that can make targets scarce.
He’s just too expensive as the WR7, which assumes everything he did last season will happen again.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) ADP: 19 OVR, TE2
Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end who drove rosters to fantasy championships. The Baltimore Ravens’ fourth-year TE led the position with a 25% target share, 28% air yards share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. In addition, he ran a route on 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also ranked first.
With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has solidified himself as the clear TE1 with a still unproven second-year wideout as his main competition for targets.
However, even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1, it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career year. In addition, Andrews’ increase in route running was tied to the Ravens’ boosted pass-play rate (56%).
From 2019 to 2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore’s increase in passing was due out of necessity in 2021, I’d project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season.
Considering Andrews’ second-round ADP is significantly higher than it was in 2021 (fifth round), he’s too expensive for me, with him likely regressing statistically as the Ravens get back to the run game.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) ADP: 21 OVR, WR8
Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. Nevertheless, the ‘Cheetah’ wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).
It’s worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill’s average depth of target (aDOT) also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest since his rookie season.
Hill was then traded to the Miami Dolphins this offseason, but it’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-10 season with a lesser passer. His current ADP and ECR ranking is WR8.
Especially with Tagovailoa’s lack of a confident deep ball — 34th in aDOT last season — a prominent running game, and second-year wide receiver Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan.
Waddle posted nine top-24 PPR finishes in 2021 – eighth-best at the position and more than Hill did in KC with Patrick Mahomes. And through the second half of the season, their cumulative numbers were nearly identical across the board. Except for efficiency marks and fantasy points per game – where Waddle was superior, averaging 14.8 half-points per game versus Hill (12.7).
Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently.
Case in point, quick-hitters, and yards after the catch (YAC) will be the focal point of the Dolphins’ offense in 2021 as new head coach Mike McDaniel stems from the 49ers’ YAC-heavy passing offense. Hill finished seventh in yards after the catch last season, so he’s a candidate to take full advantage of Tagovailoa’s “YAC attack.”
49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior.
With Hill’s efficiency marks trending in the wrong direction amid a massive quarterback downgrade, he remains a player you need to be extremely price-sensitive about drafting.
Full disclosure, I’m not particularly high on the Dolphins’ passing offense heading into the 2022 season, which is why I think exposing the obvious value in their backfield is the best approach. After all, Mike McDaniel found his success in the 49ers system as a run game coordinator.
Case in point, over the last three seasons, only the Titans have been more run-heavy under neutral game script conditions than the 49ers.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) ADP: 34 OVR, QB2
Best real-life quarterback? Of course. The clear-cut No. 2 option in fantasy? Not worth the price of admission.
Patrick Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0), tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes in 2021. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2). And that was with Tyreek Hill in the fold.
My findings from the QB boom-or-bust report was also glaring.
– Mahomes posted the highest bust rate among QBs inside the top 3 ADP (25%).
– The Chiefs QB’s average fantasy finish in 7 games that Hill busted in 2021: QB11. One top-five finish.
– The Chiefs QB’s average fantasy finish in games that Hill finished top-20 or better in 2021: QB7. Five top-five finishes.
Heading into 2022, Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 — despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018 season. There’s genuine concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill that is not being factored into his top-3 ADP and ECR ranking.
Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and a career-high in interceptions (16). He’s being overvalued as the QB2 in early drafts on name recognition alone.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) ADP: 29 OVR, RB15
Ezekiel Elliott’s main fantasy appeal is the touchdown opportunity he will see in a high-powered offense, coming off another season with poor rushing efficiency marks. The Dallas Cowboys running back finished fifth-worst in PFF’s elusive rating (25.0) and averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (14.6 versus 15.4) in a better offensive situation. There is a caveat with Zeke’s inefficient rushing: He reportedly played with a torn PCL last season.
However, history doesn’t necessarily indicate that Elliott is in for a significant comeback in 2022 based on running backs that have had similar careers.
Steven Jackson, Walter Payton and Clinton Portis profile closest to Elliott based on their workloads and age, per Stathead.com. Each running back totaled over 1,800 touches before their age-27 season.
But the feedback was negative, with each running back seeing a dip in average PPR points per game (1.34) and total fantasy points (-18). And that came with each of them still seeing 370-plus touches on the season.
Elliott hit a career-low in total touches (284) and touches per game last season (16.7) — nearly three fewer than in 2020.
Dallas has every right to feed Zeke to their heart’s desire with an out in his contract at the end of the season. But they are also in the business of winning games and understand that Elliott breaking down at the end of last season did not help the offense.
Meanwhile, backup running back Tony Pollard quietly averaged 11.3 touches — three more than the year prior — and flashed elite rushing ability as PFF’s second-highest-graded rusher.
Elliott barely out-scored Pollard during the second half of the season (10.5 versus 11.5) despite scoring 6 TDs versus Pollard’s one.
Pollard was also dynamite as a receiver, ranking third in yards per route run (2.03) on the 10th-most targets. Zeke finished 6th in targets… but 57th in yards per route run.
I hate to be the one to bury an older running back as washed, as that burned me last season somewhat with the likes of James Conner and Leonard Fournette. However, I am not overly convinced that Elliott will be a volume monster in 2022 after the team dialed back his usage while Pollard continued to impress at every opportunity he received.
And even if Elliott’s efficiency increases slightly after a lackluster season, the Cowboys’ offensive line might mitigate any of those benefits if they take a step back with a plethora of moving pieces.
If Zeke follows in the same path as the previous backs I’ve mentioned, he’s looking at 235 fantasy points (low-end RB1 last season) if he plays a full slate of games. But his points per game fall in the back-end RB2 range at RB22, averaging 13.5 points per game.
Chances are that Elliott will probably beat his ADP because he is an iron man and doesn’t miss games. He’s missed just one game due to injury over his NFL career.
But even the greatest Zeke fans will admit the ride for him to finish as RB10-12 hardly will feel smooth when he’s hanging middling RB2 production most weeks. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy RB1 in just 35% of his games the past two seasons. Elliott won’t end up being a true difference-maker at this stage in his career, and the cost of drafting him over league-winning WRs in the middle rounds is something I can’t justify.
Keep in mind that 13.5 PPR points per game equated to the WR29 last season. And that point projection is nearly identical to his 2022 projection.
And if the sole argument for drafting Zeke is touchdowns (valid argument), why not just draft Josh Jacobs instead at a discount? Or cheaper guys like Antonio Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, Damien Harris and David Montgomery, who all finished as RB1s at a similar percentage (greater than 32%) in 2021?
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) ADP: 40 OVR, WR16
Diontae Johnson’s expert consensus rating (ECR) of WR15 is super aggressive. It’s vastly higher than my rank (WR23). And it’s a pretty price to pay up even for a target hog like Johnson when he will almost surely see inefficient targets.
Too often last season, I was drafting WRs in the third and fourth round who were projected to be target magnets with bad quarterbacks — Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore — and those ended up being poor fantasy selections. Johnson looks like he is in that similar ilk, so I am hesitant to get excited about drafting/ranking highly.
Let’s not forget that last year’s heavily-coveted rookie quarterback class produced almost zero reliable options outside of Brandin Cooks (WR20), Darnell Mooney (WR26) Jakobi Meyers (WR33) and Kendrick Bourne (WR30).
Moreover, by most accounts, new Steelers’ rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett would be drafted after all the 2021 signal-callers, so what makes the experts so confident that he can fuel a fringe WR1 season for Johnson?
The Steelers are one of those offenses that have the chance to totally bottom out in 2022, with major question marks at quarterback.
And I know that arguments and takes will be made as to why Trubisky is a better option at quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger was last season; it’s possible that happens.
Just be aware that in Trubisky’s best season (2018) as an NFL quarterback, the Bears’ offense ranked 24th in yards per game (344) and 10th in points per game.
The room for an improved offense is realistic, but I’m not as bullish on paying the premium price for a wide receiver like Diontae Johnson in Round 4 with so much uncertainty under center.
Johnson already threaded the needle with bad quarterback play last season – finishing as the lone top-10 WR in half-point scoring on an offense that generated a negative EPA per dropback.
Four more finished in the WR18-WR24 range.
Receivers like Johnson are fantasy WR2s and won’t be fantasy WR1s on their existing bad offenses unless they see absolutely absurd target volume.
It also needs to be considered that the new quarterbacks have zero ties to Johnson being their primary target. Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens, and Calvin Austin III will all be vying for targets in the Steelers’ passing attack.
There’s also a chance that the Steelers’ pass-play rates drop dramatically with an inexperienced and/or new quarterback. Pittsburgh has ranked second in pass-play rate over the last two seasons with Ben Roethlisberger. During the 2019 season, when Big Ben missed all but two games, the Steelers ranked 23rd in pass-play rate. Nobody on that offense saw more than 100 targets.
Why pay a premium for Diontae Johnson’s 2021 26% target share in Rounds 3/4, when you can take other WRs that project to lead their team in targets ie. Michael Thomas, Cooks, Mooney, Christian Kirk, Kadarius Toney, Allen Lazard that go much later.
Also greatly prefer Chase Claypool at ADP outside the top-100 picks.
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) ADP: 36 OVR, RB19
Antonio Gibson was on the RB1 track heading into 2022 free agency after J.D. McKissic had reportedly signed a deal with the Buffalo Bills. AG averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game in half-point scoring (RB9) in the five games McKissic missed last season. In the other 11 games, the Memphis product owned just an 8% target share and ran a route on 36% of the team’s dropbacks to go along with 12.1 points per game (RB23).
All in all, Gibson finished as a fantasy RB2 in just 53% of his games last season; three of them came in games that J.D. McKissic missed last season. McKissic — keep in mind half-point scoring — finished as fantasy RB2 in 45% in the 11 games he played last season.
Gibson is facing a major uphill battle for maximum upside that he’s virtually hands-off in the first five rounds.
With third-round rookie running back Brian Robinson added into the mix as a likely candidate to earn touches on early downs, the volume distribution in the Washington backfield is not favoring Gibson’s fantasy upside. Third-round running backs have earned 125 touches on average since 2013, making it unlikely AG is able to repeat his fourth-ranked 300-touch workload from a season ago. As a result, Gibson’s current ADP at RB19 is nearly identical to his fantasy points per game finish in half-point scoring from 2021 (RB18).
It’s too large a price to pay for a running back being selected in the dread RB Dead Zone despite his back-to-back top-12 finishes the past two seasons.
His FantasyPros aggregate ADP is still too high (36th overall, RB19), but his best ball ADP – specifically on Underdog at 79th overall – is probably too much of an overreaction to the added competition.
It’s all about draft price where you draft with Gibson that you have to consider. Rounds 3-5, I’ll likely be fading him. Don’t pay up or aggressively draft Gibson.
But if he falls into Rounds 6-plus outside the top-60 picks, it’s hard to just fade that value. Because Gibson is still a do-it-all RB that ranked third in red-zone carries, fourth in touches, and owns two RB1 finishes (RB12, RB10) in his first two years in the NFL. AG is the business casual Nick Chubb, who also operates in a committee but still gets drafted in the second round of fantasy drafts.
Remember, most RBs are in some kind of committee. So all else being equal, Gibson is not just one of the cheapest ones now, but one of the more talented backs that you can get in the dreaded RB dead zone. Reminds me a lot of D’Andre Swift or Josh Jacobs‘ draft stock falls from last season. Both teams’ offseason additions didn’t matter when the dust settled.
All the “hype” for guys that really are just average backs in Kenyan Drake and Jamaal Williams.
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA) ADP: 46 OVR, WR15
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. Both guys have sub-80.0 career passer ratings. Wilson‘s career passer rating (101.8) ranks second all-time among QBs with 100 starts.
It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts DK Metcalf in a tough spot.
The alpha wideout rose to the occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th — same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.
But I suspect that removing their quarterback, who led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury, is going to create a much more significant impact over a 17-game sample size.
Metcalf thrives off touchdown production — 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons –, but scoring might be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense.
One of Seattle’s two top pass catchers might be able to get by based solely on volume in 2022, but that’s a bet I am not willing to make drafting in the middle rounds.
There’s also no guarantee that Metcalf holds a stranglehold as the team’s target share leader after he and Tyler Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares over the last two seasons.
The other major concern is how much raw passing volume is even available in the Seahawks’ offense, with head coach Pete Carroll looking to establish the run early and often. And the addition of a capable No. 3 pass-catcher in Noah Fant should not be overlooked. Recall that when Gerald Everett was most productive in 2021 it took a toll on Metcalf’s numbers. The former Seahawks tight end out-scored Metcalf from Weeks 10-16.
David Montgomery (RB – CHI) ADP: 33 OVR, RB16
Just don’t draft David Montgomery and thank me later. Projected volume is the sole reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently.
In my heart of hearts, I think Khalil Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.
Herbert might be a better fit for the zone-running scheme that new OC Luke Getsy will be bringing in. PFF graded Herbert in the 96th percentile on zone rushes. Montgomery ranked in the 43rd percentile.
Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season (46%) despite being an entrenched workhorse with a top-10 opportunity share. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs.
No thanks.
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) ADP: 47 OVR, RB21
The Raiders offense looks to reach new heights in 2022 with No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams added to the fold. And that benefits the team’s projected lead ball-carrier Josh Jacobs, who has sat out the team’s last two preseason games. A more efficient offense may lend itself to more scoring opportunities — a MUST behind PFF’s 29th-ranked OL — and Jacobs will reap the most rewards as the team’s primary red-zone back.
Last year’s RB13 smashed career highs in all receiving categories in 2021 despite playing alongside Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard. There was a deliberate effort to feature Jacobs more as a receiver with him catching at least two passes in 12 of his 15 games played. And more importantly, the receiving capability that Jacobs displayed put to rest the narrative that he is “game-script” dependent. Whether the Raiders are winning or losing in a loaded 2022 AFC West, JJ has shown he can be used in all facets.
From Week 1o onward Jacobs ranked second in RB targets (42, 5.3 per game).
Although it’s important to keep in mind that over this eight-game stretch, Drake and Darren Waller missed five games. Jalen Richard missed three games. Considering Jacobs averaged just 3.3 targets per game before all the injuries in Weeks 1-9, he’s hardly a safe bet to carry over his pass-game usage from 2021 with more pass-catchers in the fold.
That makes him a very TD-dependent fantasy RB2.
Especially considering the Raiders elected to sign both Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah this offseason to bolster their running back stable behind Jacobs. Bolden has been a special teams guy nearly his entire career, so I doubt he carves out any legitimate role on offense.
Abdullah has been used as a third-down back on the several teams he has been on at the NFL level, and the team electing to release Kenyan Drake suggests he’s a lock as the pass-catching RB out of the backfield.
The team also drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, but I would not expect too much from White in year one based on Josh McDaniels’ track record from New England of not featuring Day 3 rookie RBs.
There’s an outcome that the new head coach is more likely to run Jacobs into the ground on an expiring contract as he did with Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen during his Patriots tenure.
And besides, the red-zone role is the most significant for fantasy points, and that looks to be clearly in Jacobs’ grasp.
Two-down back Damien Harris was in the red-zone role for the Patriots last season and flourished because of it. He ranked fourth in carries (46) and third in rushing TDs (13) from inside the 20-yard line.
But the Patriots offense also lacked serious red-zone threats like Waller, Adams and Hunter Renfrow etc.
All in all, like many running backs listed on this bust list that are drafted in the dreaded RB dead zone (mostly Rounds 3-5,), there’s just too much “bad” in Jacobs’ 2022 projection that outweighs his potential TD upside in Vegas as a draft selection in the first five rounds. His current ADP is 45th overall, which is way too rich for my blood with the amount of issues regarding his profile.
You are much better off drafting WRs in this range.
But be open to scooping up value if everybody in your draft decides to fade one of this dead-zone backs to the point where the can be obtained in the late 6th or even 7th round of drafts.
After all, while Jacobs does not have a high weekly ceiling — zero top-six finishes (boom games) — last year, he was one of just four RBs that finished inside the top-16 that posted a 0% bust rate.
All else considered, he’s just a cheaper version of Ezekiel Elliott.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) ADP: 52 OVR, RB24
Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him… J.D. McKissic. That’s because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins’ three.
Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bell cows, but that’s not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore, with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020.
It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will completely take over the backfield in 2022 coming off an injury, considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received.
Although worth noting that Dobbins will have the upper hand to start the year with him on the trajectory to suit up in Week 1, while Edwards remains doubtful.
Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on back in 2020. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) — the sixth-highest difference at the position.
Drafters must understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late fourth-rounder or fifth-rounder (this price will likely increase), he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson’s tendency to not check down, along with the additions of two receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie.
Even as the “healthier” of the two Ravens top RBs, his activation off the PUP also doesn’t mean he is 100% healthy. Nor does it mean he will be as effective as a rusher like he was when he last played averaging 6.0 yards per carry — an extremely high standard.
It’s just hard to maintain that pristine level of efficiency year over year, let alone do it after suffering a multi-ligament knee injury.
Best temper expectations on Dobbins out the gates — even with Edwards also sidelined.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) ADP: 60 OVR, RB27
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is too expensive as the RB27 after the team added Ronald Jones II in free agency, re-signed Jerick McKinnon and drafted the explosive 4.37 training camp superstar Isiah Pacheco.
Jones is a candidate to eat into CEH’s workload on early downs and in the red zone. 7th-round draft pick Pacheco is also generating a ton of hype out of training camp, so there’s also a chance that he takes on larger than expected role on the Chiefs offense. The two backs have swapped first-team reps on a near-daily basis.
His explosiveness – 98th percentile speed score per PlayerProfiler.com – just isn’t part of Edwards-Helaire’s game. Over the past two seasons, CEH has ranked 41st (21%) and 59th (9%) in breakaway run rate.
And McKinnon already showed the capability of being “the guy” in this backfield during KC’s playoff run in 2021. In fact, from Week 18 through the first three rounds of the playoffs, McKinnon averaged 14.3 fantasy points (PPR) and over four receptions per game. When CEH returned from injury in the Divisional Round, McKinnon doubled his touches (30 vs 15).
With an established pass-catching background and obvious trust from the coaching staff to let him loose during the postseason, McKinnon should be considered a late-round pick across all fantasy formats to get exposure to the Chiefs’ offense.
He could easily emerge as the team’s No. 1 pass-catching back. This casts doubt on the Edwards-Helaire’s receiving upside after his 0.73 yards per route run ranked 64th out of 68 qualifying running backs in 2021. The mark was significantly worse than his teammates Darrel Williams (1.28) and McKinnon (1.15).
Not to mention, CEH’s “upside” in the Chiefs’ offense is being overblown. Two years and he has five top-12 finishes to show for it (22%). Zero “boom” performance. Williams had three last season.
Will CEH be at least an RB3? Probably. Finished as a top-36 running back over 82% of his games played the past two seasons. But his attachment in the Chiefs is actually just boosting his floor rather than unlocking a top-tier ceiling.
I think their are higher upside shots in the range that Edwards-Helaire typically gets drafted.
He’s got to lock down the goal-line work to be a worthy fantasy asset. And that’s no guarantee.
Derrick Gore still has potential as the team’s goal-line back. He flashed red-zone usage last season in Week 8 with six red-zone touches. Many will point to Gore’s undrafted status as a reason to believe he won’t be a factor in 2022. But the team’s belief in fellow UDFA Williams suggests that the team won’t shy away from Gore if he is indeed the best option for the job.
He was superior to Edwards-Helaire and Jones last season in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per attempt.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI) ADP: 86 OVR, WR35
DeAndre Hopkins will be suspended six games for violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancing Drug policy.
The alpha WR falls into the WR4 range for redraft purposes because he won’t be available for most of the season. Hopkins also wasn’t the same dominant target hog in 2021 as he had been for so many years prior.
He battled through injuries and produced just one game with double-digit targets and two games with 80-plus receiving yards. Hopkins saw double-digit targets eight times and went over 80 receiving yards seven times in 2020.
It’s hard to imagine drafting Hopkins over Marquise Brown with the six-game suspension baked in. It’s not worth the roster management headache when the start of the season is so crucial for waiver wire transactions.
Also, there’s no guarantee Hopkins will be returning to the lineup in Week 7 as a locked-and-loaded fantasy WR1.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA) ADP: 90 OVR, RB35
With an ADP in the top 90, it’s just too steep a price to pay for Ken Walker as the No. 2 RB behind Rashaad Penny (RB32, 81st overall)
Walker will be used heavily on early downs in an offense that easily projects to be bottom five in the NFL led by the unsurprising duo of Drew Lock/Geno Smith at quarterback.
Even if Walker can carve out a first-year workload similar to that of Chris Carson circa 2020 — 16.4 touches per game, 56% snap share when healthy — it’s still going to be a massive uphill battle for him to be a fantasy producer in Year 1.
Pete Carroll has a stable of backs including Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer, and DeeJay Dallas who all figure to work in at some point despite Walker’s Round 2 draft capital. Penny was the fantasy RB1 over the final five weeks of the season. By all training camp accounts, Penny is viewed as the starter — health withstanding.
Again, even when Carson was the clear-cut RB1 of the offense, he was splitting snaps.
Penny was brought back on a one-year deal for $5 million (12th-highest cap hit) and Homer/Dallas have routinely worked as pass catchers out of the backfield.
Seattle also finished dead last in targets to the RB position last season, creating serious doubt that Walker will be used in that fashion in any capacity as a rookie. Part of that is on Russell Wilson‘s lack of juice in the screen game, but the offense itself doesn’t predicate much RB pass-game usage. Geno Smith posted a meager 12% RB target rate (three per game) in his three starts last season. Drew Lock was at 17%.
The Seahawks have the chance to be a running back by committee backfield and dumpster fire on offense this season for all the reasons I’ve laid out, which is why I am adamantly against paying the premium for Walker. If this team falls behind in games, there’s no telling which RB will even be on the field.
A friendly reminder: Nobody is making you draft a Seattle Seahawks running back.
Penny is my preferred target if you are waiting long in the draft for your 2nd running back, as you can squeeze some decent RB2 production out of him to start the year at the price of an RB3. He’s not going to be there for the long haul, but can be useful to start the year.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) ADP: 94 OVR, QB12
Placing Aaron Rodgers in the “players to avoid” category feels like grabbing at low-hanging fruit. Still, it’s so obvious his fantasy ceiling will be hindered this year without his No. 1 wide receiver, Davante Adams.
The one game the Packers’ signal-caller played without his No. 1 receiver in 2021 was his third-worst fantasy finish of the season. And Rodgers’ only healthy season-long fantasy finish outside the top eight came in a season where Adams missed four games (2019).
Rodgers finished as a top-6 QB at a 25% rate that year – a mark that would have ranked 10th in 2021.
The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent than in or near the red zone, with Rodgers and Adams combining for 64 touchdowns — double digits on average — since 2016, 23 more than the next-closest duo (Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill). In addition, 33% of Rodgers’ touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.
Green Bay has bolstered their wide receiver room through free agency and the draft, but it’s still improbable that they can make up for Adams’ production — especially in the red zone. Without Adams, it’s hard to buy Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2022.
Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) ADP: 72 OVR, WR30
Fantasy football doesn’t have to be complicated. And neither does fading Adam Thielen, who failed to finish as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in over half of his games for the second straight season.
The 32-year-old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s just not sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship who will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Dalvin Cook is long overdue for positive touchdown regression. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally catch up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter in 2016.
With a slew of ankle injuries from last season also foreshadowing more potential issues for Thielen in 2022, the Vikings wide receiver has a plethora of red flags that suggest staying away entirely.
I’d rather just wait and take a shot on the Vikings No. 3 wide receiver, K.J. Osborn. Osborn posted one fewer top-24 finish than Thielen (seven vs. six) in 2021. His 38% WR2 finish rate also ranked extremely high for a real-life WR3.
Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) ADP: 63 OVR, WR24
Deshaun Watson will likely miss a significant portion if not all of the 2022 season. Without Watson or Baker Mayfield (who is officially a Carolina Panther), Cooper is left with Jacoby Brissett. Although Brissett has plenty of experience and can prove to be serviceable, he is a significant downgrade compared to Dak Prescott.
If Cooper only managed to finish as WR27 in 15 games with Prescott, it’s hard to be optimistic about him as the Browns WR1 or your fantasy WR2.
There’s also a glaring issue with the indoor/outdoor splits that Cooper has posted during his career.
Over the final ten games of the season, the Browns play one game indoors (December 4th at Houston).
I’m probably fine not drafting Cooper in redraft leagues with him likely shaky to start open the year. I’d rather buy low a few weeks in.
Obviously, his fantasy ceiling will grow when Watson makes his return, but I am not sure I’m willing to draft a player in Round 5 knowing it will take six weeks for the ROI to kick in.
Not to mention, the up-and-down play from Cooper won’t be subsiding anytime soon based on the reasons I’ve laid out.
Damien Harris (RB – NE) ADP: 65 OVR, RB25
There is major risk that Damien Harris will be used in a 50/50 split with second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson in 2022. Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games they played together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9).
Harris’ production was heavily inflated by his 15 touchdowns, which were nearly six more than his expected output. As a result, the running back’s total expected fantasy points were equivalent to the RB23, and on a points per game basis, the RB26 in half-point scoring.
With a limited role as a receiver, Harris has a limited fantasy ceiling that is accompanied by a super shaky floor if he loses volume to other Patriots’ running backs or fails to score touchdowns at the same rate as last season.
Just draft Stevenson instead.
Other stay-aways going later in drafts.
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