Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Risers & Fallers (Week 13)
Week 12 was wild, filled with drama, dominant performances, and a Thanksgiving feast. It was fun for fans of the NFL and fantasy football alike. Let’s look at some of the players I value differently based on their production and see who I might be targeting in trades. Here we go!
Week 13 Value Risers
Derek Carr has been playing pretty well lately. He finished as QB10 in Week 12 and has averaged a QB11 finish over the last three games. He’s not lighting up the scoreboard or anything, but he’s been a very consistent option in a very chaotic position at a very unpredictable time. Carr’s three touchdowns in Week 12 put his total at 18 on the year, eighth-best at the position. His 2,730 yards are eighth-best as well. The fact that he’s QB15 on the season for fantasy makes me think that maybe he’s just getting hot at the right time, as fantasy playoffs are right around the corner. I’d be fine starting him over most QB2 options, and if you can still trade for him, I’d highly consider it on a contender.
Carr’s teammate is the clear choice for this week’s RB riser. Josh Jacobs dominated in Week 12, scoring 48.3 PPR points and finishing as the RB1. His 229 yards last week is a season-high for all RBs, and his 1,159 total yards are also the best in the league. He’s not seeing a fantasy bench anytime soon, and he’s a true set-it-and-forget-it type of player right now. That being said, if I can get a haul in return for trading him, I’m doing it.
It’s not that I don’t like his talent. I do. I just don’t know if I can trust his value to go any higher than it currently is. In redraft, I’d love to target someone like Ja’Marr Chase or CeeDee Lamb as a possible trade target. In a dynasty, it’s a little trickier. Suppose your team is set to win the title. In that case, I recommend holding, but if you need upside, or are struggling to fill your lineup due to injuries or byes, then breaking Jacobs into two solid starters is also an acceptable alternative. Either way, as awesome as he’s been, I really doubt this kind of production continues as the season wraps up.
Welcome to the show, Mr. Jones! Zay Jones has been quietly putting up some terrific numbers for fantasy lately. Over the last three weeks, he’s averaged 17.1 PPR points per game, 16th at the position. He finished Week 12 as the WR4, catching 11 of his 14 targets for 145 yards. If the Jaguars will throw to him that many times, then I am also on board. Jones may only be WR33 overall, but much like Jacobs, he’s getting hot at the right time. If he’s somehow still a free agent in your league, rectify that immediately. If you can still trade, see what the other manager wants for him. You might be able to buy him low based on name value alone, even though his stats have been terrific.
I’ll admit I keep forgetting that Dalton Schultz is healthy and playing. Week in and week out, I see his name in rankings and stat sheets, and I say, “Oh yeah, I forgot about him.” Well, Schultz finished as the TE1 in Week 12, which is hard to ignore. He only had four targets for the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but two went for touchdowns. That’ll definitely help. With how the tight-end landscape has looked this year, you can do much worse than Schultz. He might not be in that top tier, but due to injuries to those around him, Schultz is quietly finding himself in the stud category as we approach the end of the year. I doubt you can add him now, but I’d definitely give it a shot on teams where I need the help. You never know, the other manager might see this as a fluke instead of the true Schultz shining through.
Week 13 Value Fallers
The New York Giants need a lot of help. Luckily, it looks like they don’t need much help at the QB position. Daniel Jones has played pretty well this year and is currently QB12 for fantasy. So why is he a faller, then? Well, it’s basically due to the fact that he doesn’t have anyone left to throw to. The Giants traded away Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale Robinson is injured, and Kenny Golladay has been a massive bust. Their leading WR is Darius Slayton. Woof. All of this makes me very nervous to start Jones in any meaningful matchup. Sure, he’s been okay, largely thanks to Saquon Barkley carrying the team on his back, but I can’t rely on Jones in a win-or-go-home matchup. I’d be happy to bench him if I have a better option in Week 13 and beyond.
Oh, what a fun ride Dameon Pierce has been this year. From basically irrelevant backup to dominating starter to a confusing bench player, all in the span of 12 weeks. Pierce was the darling of fantasy at one point, but after two eight-yard outings and an RB52 finish in Week 12, I’m looking elsewhere. If you missed the window to sell high on Pierce, you probably have to hold, but if you never got a chance to add him, now’s the time. You might be able to get Pierce on your roster for a WR3 or flex player. You might even be able to add him to someone like Michael Pittman in exchange for a Curtis Samuel or Christian Kirk type. I wouldn’t recommend overpaying, but if you can get him as a throw-in, that could pay off if he returns to relevance down the stretch.
Do you guys remember when D’Andre Swift was in the RB1 conversation? That feels like just a few months ago. Alas, we now have all the evidence that we need that Swift is basically benchable in almost all formats. Since returning from injury, he hasn’t gotten more than six carries for five targets in a game. He’s currently RB31 on the year, helped in large part by his five total touchdowns. He’s not a factor in that offense, which isn’t exactly high-powered as it is. I hate to say it, but Swift’s 2022 campaign is a bust. I’m not trading for him since I think this trend continues, and I’m also not trading him away since no one will pay anything for him. Ah, what could have been?
As much as it pains me to say it, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith have disappointed me this year. Brown finished as WR33 in Week 12 due to his touchdown, but Smith’s WR58 finish was more shocking. Brown’s averaged 7.7 PPR points per game over the last three weeks. Smith’s been slightly better with 12.2, but both have been underwhelming. Jalen Hurts has looked okay, but his receivers aren’t getting it done lately.
I figured with Dallas Goedert missing time, and the team would lean on both Brown and Smith more. While it looks like they’re trying, it’s just not working out. Both are seeing targets. Brown has seen 5.7 targets per game over the last three weeks, while Smith’s averaged 8.7. I’m starting both wherever I have them, but both have become very unpredictable. There’s just nothing more frustrating than that as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, follow him @AndrewHallFF.