Welcome to Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season. Week 1 was a rollercoaster; plenty of teams looked rusty, and others served up some surprises with their player usage. As we look ahead to Week 2, this column will help you try and navigate the pitfalls and traps of fantasy football, avoiding those who could crater your matchups and pointing you towards safer options instead.

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9 Risky & Safe Fantasy Football Starts

Riskiest

Drake London (WR – ATL)

It felt possible that the Falcons could be a very fantasy-friendly team if Arthur Smith was able to get even a mediocre jump from Desmond Ridder heading into the quarterback’s second year. Sadly, against the Falcons, Ridder displayed no sign of a step forward, with 53% of his completions occurring behind the line of scrimmage. Ridder has yet to turn the ball over in the NFL, but this type of safe quarterbacking isn’t going to work for the likes of Drake London or Kyle Pitts, who might have spike weeks, but with the Falcons ranking second-last in situation-neutral pass rate, it’s clear that the Falcons intend to keep this offense on the ground.

All of Drake London’s Week 1 production.

pic.twitter.com/gwCizMrcnz

— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) September 11, 2023

DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

During the preseason, DJ Moore and Justin Fields saw both of their ADPs jump by a full round after one badly thrown screen pass was taken to the house by Moore. Sadly, in Week 1, they couldn’t replicate the magic, and five other Bears players saw more targets than Moore’s two, resulting in a 5.6% target share. The Bears seemed to call a dink-and-dunk game, with 15 of Fields’s 37 passes going to running backs. While the shackles are on Fields, it could prove hard to trust DJ Moore until we see otherwise.

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)

If you were only looking at the box score, you might not think that Cam Akers had such a bad Week 1; after all, he salvaged his day with a late touchdown, which padded things out, but if you dig into the game, it becomes a very different picture. Kyren Williams out-touched Akers with 14 touches to Akers’ 11 until the Rams were up by 11 points. At that point, the Rams took Williams off the field for all but one touch and let Akers salt the game away. Williams also ran a route on 72% of dropbacks, compared to Akers’s 5%. Against a tough 49ers defense, neither player might be worth a play, but Akers certainly doesn’t look like a good one.

After a couple of years of drafting the likes of Trey Lance and D’Andre Swift this year I’m focusing my efforts on drafting players who are actually liked by their coaching staff.

Yes, this is a Cam Akers tweet.

— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 23, 2023

Christian Kirk (WR – JAC)

During preseason, we saw the Jaguars take Christian Kirk off the field in two wide receiver formations, and the first alarm bells started to ring, but make no mistake, they’re cranked up to eleven right now and giving you your last chance to heed their call. Kirk played in 97% of three wide receiver formations but only 18% of other formations, leading to a 60% snap share, well behind Zay Jones (88%) and Calvin Ridley (81%). Kirk will have better days than Week 1’s 1.9 PPR points, but we need to wait and see how predictive those days will be right now.

Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)

It all felt like it was set up perfectly for Marvin Mims to succeed straight out of the gate. The Broncos dealt with wide receiver injuries during training camp, including Jerry Jeudy, who missed Week 1, and Mims was, after all, Sean Payton’s first draft pick as head coach of the Broncos. Mims went on to see six other players run more routes than him, including Adam Trautman and Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who both saw over 20 routes compared to Mims’ 10. Further to Mims’ struggles on the depth chart, Russell Wilson didn’t look like he’s improved under Sean Payton and ranked 25th in yards per attempt with 5.2. The Broncos face a non-threatening matchup with the Commanders, but Mims will bring a lot of risk to the matchup.

Broncos WRs routes against Raiders:

Courtland Sutton 86%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey 67%
Brandon Johnson 57%
Marvin Mims 31%
Phillip Dorsett 12%

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 11, 2023

Safest

Jordan Love (QB – GB)

On a weekend where many were most interested to see how the rookie quarterbacks performed, Jordan Love’s performance perhaps should have generated as much interest heading into the weekend. Before this season, Love had taken fewer career dropbacks than Trey Lance, and while the Packers spoke positively about him, we had little to hang our hats on. Love stepped into the Packers’ starting lineup and delivered the same kind of whipping the Bears have been used to for many miserable years, and even without Christian Watson, Love was able to move the ball, ranking third in yards per attempt (9.1) and leading the league in QB Rating. Next up for Love – a matchup against the Falcons.

In week 1 Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Daniel Jones combined for less points (20.52) than Jordan Love (23). pic.twitter.com/YVIeI62OQ9

— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) September 12, 2023

Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)

In 2022, Brian Robinson came back from a gunshot to the leg to be able to play for the Commanders, and although he never did anything to take control of the job, the team continued to sound like they held belief in him long-term. Robinson saw a career-high 72.4% opportunity share against the Cardinals, 10% more than any game he played in 2022. Antonio Gibson is Robinson’s main competition for snaps, but he only managed four touches to Robinson’s 20. It’s entirely possible that this job has been firmly turned over to Robinson, and at the running back position, if we can’t find out and out talent, volume is the next best option.

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

The Falcons have shown their hand with this offense, and it’s unlikely to have a big overhaul during the season. If Arthur Smith didn’t want to come out throwing against a below-average Panthers team, then it’s unlikely he will throughout the season. The Falcons face a reasonable-looking Packers passing defense, and it shouldn’t be at all surprising to see Bijan Robinson get another strong workload as he takes more and more control of the touches in this offense.

Bijan Robinson’s first career touchdown is just filthy. pic.twitter.com/8K3xhSa475

— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_TFB) September 10, 2023

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

The Lions signaled their intentions this offseason by overhauling their running back room, replacing Jamaal Williams with David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift with Jahmyr Gibbs. It was such an easy comparison to make on both fronts and clear to see why the Lions felt like their new arrivals were upgrades on the players who departed. Montgomery also saw 64% of the team’s rushing attempts to Gibbs’s 27% and played in all of the two-minute drill snaps. Montgomery isn’t a sexy name for your fantasy rosters, but he has a secure job you’ll be able to rely on for the near future, at least.