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Fantasy Football NFL Week 3 Injury Report & Outlook (2023)

Fantasy Football NFL Week 3 Injury Report & Outlook (2023)

Welcome back! Plenty to get to so we’ll dive right in. As always, hit up to stay up to date during the week.

And if we missed anyone, let us know on Twitter/X @FantasyPros & @SportMDAnalysis.

Here we go.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Injury Report

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)

This is a true judgment call. We’d lean slightly towards him playing Week 3 but re-injury risk is the key. Given a “tweak” following a strain, that risk is relatively high right now (~20%). Each week of rest lowers it, but the unfortunate reality is that it would take ~6 weeks to substantially lower it down to <10%. With the Bengals already 0-2, we’re not sure they have the luxury of time.

Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)

Average high ankle data would have Ekeler returning in the Week 4-5 range. But the Chargers are on bye Week 5 and recent comments from Staley suggest they’re going to take this slowly, so we’d lean towards a Week 6 return. At that point, re-injury risk is only mild, but performance would still project to dip for about 3 weeks post-return.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)

Comments suggest this is a bone bruise, rather than the more common turf toe injury. If that is the case, we’d lean towards ARSB playing Week 3 with low re-injury risk and performance impact.

DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)

TBD. Lean towards playing. Rib and chest contusions tend not to limit availability, but do tend to drop WR performance ~15%. Overall low re-injury risk.

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

TBD. As of this writing (Saturday AM), Waddle has a 40% chance to get cleared and play Week 3. The decision likely won’t be announced until Saturday night or Sunday morning. No production impact expected upon return. UPDATE: Waddle is OUT for Week 3.

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)

Now that we have a confirmed diagnosis of high ankle, data favors sitting Week 4 and returning Week 5-6 (most common outcome would be Week 6). Typically would see ~20% production impact for the first 4 weeks post-return.

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

TBD. Data slightly favors him playing, although his practice progression this week has been highly atypical. If active, data projects a 10-15% performance hit and re-injury risk.

Aaron Jones (WR – GB)

TBD. Data projects a 60% chance he plays Week 3. RBs tend to see low impact on their efficiency, but their backups often see extra touches upon return from these injuries. Overall relatively mild re-injury risk expected since returning Week 3 would confirm a mild severity strain to begin with.

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

TBD. Lean towards playing. Typically see low production impact and re-injury risk if active.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – TEN)

TBD. Lean towards playing. WRs with this pattern of progressive downgrades in practice would actually sit out the game 75% of the time. However, Hopkins has a personal history (with multiple teams) of playing despite missing practices, so we’d lean towards that outcome here.

DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

TBD. Data projects a 65% chance he plays based on injury report timing and practice progression. If active, we’d anticipate 10% explosiveness dip and re-injury rate.

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)

Likely playing. Similar to the case of Aaron Jones, Henry projects to see a low impact of his efficiency, but more spread out usage with Tyjae Spears. This will be the case for any older RB playing through minor injury.

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)

TBD. Data projects a 2/3 chance he plays Week 3. If active, that would confirm low injury severity and would mean low efficiency impact is expected.

Josh Reynolds (WR – DET)

TBD. Lean towards playing based on his practice progression (75% chance). Data suggests low performance impact and no volume limitations. The key with groin strains is the elevated re-injury risk of ~15%.

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

Typically would be able to play Week 4 without major re-injury risk due to this newly sustained rib contusion. Like DK Metcalf, data projects performance dips up to ~15% for 2 weeks.

Jamaal Williams (RB – NO)

Out Week 3. Data favors 60% chance of sitting Week 4, with Kendre Miller and Alvin Kamara getting extra touches initially upon Williams’s return. UPDATE: The Saints placed Williams on injured reserve this weekend. He is out through Week 6.

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)

Data projects 75% chance of return Week 4. Low performance impact expected, but will be watching closely to see if he changes his otherwise high risk playing style.

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)

Given proximity to his hamstring strain, production improvements are still expected to progress over the next 2-3 weeks. Through ~Week 6, Jeudy will carry a moderate re-injury risk.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)

Video suggests an AC joint sprain (shoulder). Data favors playing Week 4 with a 2-3 week mild performance hit.

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

Data and comments suggest a Week 4 return is relatively realistic. Quad contusions tend to carry low production impact upon return.

And that’s a wrap for the moment. As always, hit us up on Twitter/X and for updates throughout the week. Now go win those leagues!

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