Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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12.
Starling Marte
Marte's getting a little old for a player to rely on for stolen bases, and although fantasy managers need to start lowering their expectations as he enters his age-32 season, there should be enough left in the tank for him to be productive. He ranked in the top 11% in sprint speed last year and was caught stealing just twice in 10 attempts. The quality of his contact declined fairly significantly, however, and considering he now plays in Miami, anything more than 15 home runs should be considered gravy. But he'll likely continue to chip in for all five rotisserie categories and be an asset in both stolen bases and batting average, two difficult categories to fill. Again, temper expectations a bit against his historical production, but fantasy managers can still draft him with confidence.
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16.
Michael Conforto
Conforto built on his excellent 2019 season by trading off a bit of power for some batting average. Fed by a significant increase in line drive rate that led to a .412 BABIP, Conforto batted a career best .322 last year. His xBA was just .284, so don't think that he suddenly morphed into a high average bat, but he did hit above .300 against every type of pitch last year, so it was certainly more than luck. Expect some regression to closer to his .259 mark, but he should hit around 30 homers with plenty of runs and RBI and even toss in a few steals. That makes him a worthwhile OF2 in mixed leagues.
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17.
Nick Castellanos
Castellanos hit for plenty of power last season with the Reds, but it was far from the full breakout season many expected. His strikeout rate jumped to 28.5%, his batting average cratered to a career-low .225, and his wOBA was his worst mark since 2015. But Castellanos was also the victim of some pretty terrible luck, given that he had an expected batting average of .273 and a strong 46.7% hard-hit rate. With a full year in Great American Ballpark, Castellanos should fully live up to the hype he had coming into the 2020 season if he can just have even normal luck. Draft him with confidence as a likely strong four-category contributor.
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25.
Eddie Rosario
Rosario stays in the AL Central, signing a one-year deal with the Indians after a successful tenure with the Twins. He's established a fairly reliable power baseline at this point, and he usually offers some batting average to go with it. Last year, however, his batting average dipped to just .257, in part because he became much more passive (8.2% walk rate, 51.2% Swing%, both far out of character for his career). The bigger issue was that Rosario largely cut down on his swing percentage on pitches in the strike zone, but continued to swing at pitches out of the zone at a 41.2% clip. That likely explains his lower than usual average exit velocity and barrel rate, and it's something that's easily correctable if he just goes back to his previous approach. At the very least, Rosario should chip in 25 home runs at least, while helping out in runs and RBI, and he's a fine third outfielder in mixed leagues.
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30.
Tommy Pham
Pham had a terrible 2020 season, during which he slashed .211/.312/.312 and hit just three home runs. A broken hamate bone limited him to just 31 games, and to make matters worse, he was stabbed in the lower back during an altercation in the offseason. But even entering his age-33 season, there are reasons to be optimistic about his 2021 outlook. Pham had averaged roughly 22 home runs and 22 steals with a .284 batting average the three years prior to last, and he had the highest hard-hit rate of his career in 2020. Indeed, his expected batting average of .266 was 55 points higher than his actual average. There's reason to expect Pham to return to his 20-20 ways if he can remain healthy, and batting in a loaded Padres lineup, he should add plenty of counting stats.
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38.
Kris Bryant
Bryant had a terrible 2020 season, but it seems like fantasy managers are forgetting how consistent he's been. Over the last four seasons, he has a 162-game pace of a .278 average, 29 home runs, 112 run scored, 80 RBI, and five steals. His quality of contact was awful last season, but hard contact has never really been his calling card anyway, and he battled back and wrist injuries. Bryant doesn't deserve a mulligan entirely for last season, but give it minimal weight in your evaluation.
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42.
Jorge Soler
Soler's injury-shortened 2020 season didn't live up to his massive 2019 campaign, but he did show that a lot of his gains were legitimate. Yes, it was more of a 30-homer pace, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate were all elite, as they were the prior year. Soler struck out way too much (34.5% of the time), and if he can't fix that, then his average will suffer as it did last year. But, his walk rate remains high and the power is going to be there with how hard he hits the ball. He's a source of cheap power you can grab later than other similarly-profiled bats going several rounds earlier.
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51.
Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen returned from his torn ACL and put up a decent season, hitting 10 home runs and stealing four bases in 57 games. If you watched him play, you could see he wasn't 100% himself, and his sprint speed dropped to just 27.4 ft/s, by far a career low. But he looks and reportedly feels healthier this spring, and will lead off again for the Phillies. Expect 20-plus homers, close to double-digit steals, and plenty of runs scored. And because he's an aging veteran, expect him to be a value on draft day.
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54.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber gave back many of his 2019 gains last year, seeing a rise in strikeout rate (29.5%) and his batting average dropping to an abysmal .188. But Schwarber's season was far from linear: over the first half of the season, he slashed .230/.343/.448, but those numbers dropped to .154/.279/.346 over the second half. At the same time, he continued to hit the ball extremely hard, with a 92.8 MPH average exit velocity, which was top 5% in the league. Given his consistently hard contact, the better course of action seems to forgive Schwarber for what amounted to an extremely poor 24-game stretch to close out the season. Now batting in the middle of the Nationals lineup with a fresh start and entering his age-28 season, Schwarber should rebound to somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 numbers.
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56.
Clint Frazier
There's little reason to doubt Frazier's ability to contribute from a fantasy perspective at this point. Over the last two seasons, he has a 162-game pace of a .267 average, 30 home runs, 83 runs scored, 96 RBI, and 6 steals. He upped his walk rate significantly in 2020 (15.6%, top seven percent in the league) and hits the ball hard consistently. The only issue for Frazier is his playing time with Giancarlo Stanton healthy and Brett Gardner back in the fold. But Frazier has done enough to hold the left field job and, regardless, Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks are not the product of health. Draft Frazier as a starting outfielder and don't worry about the playing time.
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69.
Chris Taylor
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71.
Joc Pederson
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80.
Kole Calhoun
Calhoun tore his knee meniscus in early March, and has a 4-6 week timetable for his recovery. When healthy, he offers a fairly reliable baseline of production: he will hit plenty of homers and drain your batting average, while offering passable but unspectacular counting statistics otherwise. He's a fine bench outfielder who can always be a plug-in, and he'll likely be essentially free in drafts this year with the injury.
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83.
Adam Eaton
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85.
Alex Dickerson
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90.
Brandon Belt
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91.
Avisail Garcia
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94.
Corey Dickerson
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111.
Kevin Pillar
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114.
Yasiel Puig
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121.
Gregory Polanco
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125.
Niko Goodrum
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126.
Nomar Mazara
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128.
JaCoby Jones
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132.
Ryan Braun
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136.
Dexter Fowler
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137.
Jay Bruce
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141.
Danny Santana
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142.
Mike Tauchman
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145.
Brett Gardner
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146.
Jake Bauers
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147.
Marwin Gonzalez
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148.
Leury Garcia
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152.
Josh Reddick
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157.
Ender Inciarte
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158.
Odubel Herrera
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159.
Tim Lopes
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161.
Stephen Vogt
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163.
Brad Miller
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164.
Jake Marisnick
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168.
Shin-Soo Choo
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169.
Shed Long Jr.
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171.
Dee Strange-Gordon
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173.
Christin Stewart
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174.
Cameron Maybin
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178.
Eric Sogard
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180.
Dustin Fowler
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185.
Billy Hamilton
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186.
Albert Almora Jr.
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188.
Jose Marmolejos
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191.
Brian Goodwin
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193.
Jarrod Dyson
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194.
Yoenis Cespedes
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203.
Derek Fisher
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226.
Ehire Adrianza
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229.
Brock Holt
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230.
Matt Kemp
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237.
Jose Martinez
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239.
Delino DeShields
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246.
Jose Peraza
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248.
Magneuris Sierra
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249.
Steven Souza Jr.
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250.
Chris Herrmann
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251.
Yairo Munoz
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256.
Mallex Smith
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257.
Chris Owings
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259.
Justin Williams
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260.
Ryan McBroom
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261.
Charlie Culberson
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267.
Daniel Robertson
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269.
Domingo Santana
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271.
Gerardo Parra
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272.
Eric Thames
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274.
Brandon Drury
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276.
Matt Joyce
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277.
Juan Lagares
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279.
Bubba Starling
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287.
Trayce Thompson
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288.
Robel Garcia
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293.
Tim Beckham
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295.
Braden Bishop
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299.
Derek Dietrich
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300.
Keon Broxton
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301.
Brian O'Grady
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302.
Abraham Almonte
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303.
Erick Mejia
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309.
Travis Jankowski
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311.
Nicky Delmonico
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312.
Troy Stokes Jr.
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314.
JT Riddle
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315.
Jorge Bonifacio
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317.
Nick Williams
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318.
Kevin Kramer
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319.
Eduardo Nunez
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322.
Stephen Wrenn
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323.
Jon Jay
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324.
Sean Rodriguez
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326.
Sam Travis
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328.
Socrates Brito
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338.
Ian Miller
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339.
Yasmany Tomas
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343.
Scott Schebler
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344.
Melky Cabrera
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347.
Dylan Cozens
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348.
Patrick Kivlehan
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349.
Forrest Wall
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350.
Carlos Tocci
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352.
Carlos Gonzalez
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353.
Terrance Gore
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354.
Nick Martini
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357.
Joey Rickard
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358.
Ryan Cordell
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359.
Blake Swihart
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363.
Chris Shaw
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364.
Juan Rivera
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