Fantasy Football Player Notes

D.J. Moore was excellent in his debut season in Chicago, finishing as the WR6 averaging 14.0 points/game. He showcased his dominance with a 43% air yards share and a top-10 target share at 29%. Moore's rapport with quarterback Justin Fields yielded high-end WR1 production, averaging 16.8 points per game over 12 games. However, with Fields replaced by rookie Caleb Williams and the addition of WR Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze, Moore's fantasy upside in 2024 may face challenges.

Keenan Allen had a stellar 2023 season, ranking third in points per game and finishing as the WR8 overall, thanks in large part to his impressive 31% target share. Despite turning 32 in 2024, he displayed no signs of slowing down with Justin Herbert. However, his trade to the Bears presents new challenges, particularly with a downgrade in rookie QB play and stiff competition for targets from players like Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore. This shift in situation, coupled with Allen's age, raises concerns about his fantasy outlook for the upcoming season.

D'Andre Swift lands in Chicago with a contract that is large enough to consider him the clear starter for the Bears. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson had their moments last season, but the aggression and contact size for Chicago speak volumes about how they feel about those two rushers. The Bears obviously felt that an upgrade was warranted. Swift ranked 17th in explosive run rate last season while disappointing in other tackle-breaking metrics as the RB24 in fantasy. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, Swift ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Swift should be a solid RB2 in 2024.

Rome Odunze's tenure at Washington was characterized by steady progression, peaking in his junior year with 75 catches, 1,145 yards, and 7 TDs, and further elevating in 2023 with 81 receptions for 1,428 yards and 13 TDs, despite battling injuries. His senior performance earned him a spot on the AP first team and a career-high 33% dominator rating, placing him fourth in his draft class. Notably, Odunze had a breakout season at 19 during his sophomore year, underlining his early development. Drafted 9th overall by the Chicago Bears, he starts the season as the WR3 but has the potential to secure a more significant role as the year progresses. His blend of size, resilience, and early breakout age positions him as a promising fantasy asset.

The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams figures to be a Day 1 starter for the Bears, who have given their rookie quarterback an embarrassment of pass-catching riches with the WR trio of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and No. 9 overall draft pick Rome Odunze. After transferring from Oklahoma to USC in 2022, Williams won the Heisman Trophy in his first season with the Trojans, throwing for 42 touchdowns and running for 10 more. Williams was slightly less spectacular in 2023 but still had a fine season for a defensively weak USC squad that asked its quarterback to carry the team all year. Williams has abundant arm talent and mobility. He's a creative quarterback who excels at making plays out of structure. There's always a steep learning curve for rookie quarterbacks, but C.J. Stroud just reminded us that a high-quality rookie QB can be fantasy-viable right away.

Credit Cole Kmet for defying the limitations of the Bears' low-octane passing attack. Over the last three seasons, Chicago has finished 25th, 32nd and 28th in passing yardage, but Kmet has finished with 612. 544 and 719 receiving yards in those three seasons. He had a career-high 73 catches last year and scored six touchdowns, finishing TE8 in PPR fantasy scoring. The Bears spent the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft on QB Caleb Williams, so the Chicago passing game should have some added juice in 2024. The problem is that the Bears now have a WR trio of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, so Kmet faces stuff target competition that could cap his fantasy upside. Consider him a high-end to midrange TE2.

Last season, the Bears could not decide who they wanted to be their lead back as it rotated weekly from Khalil Herbert to Roschon Johnson to D'Onta Foreman. With D'Andre Swift in Chicago now, Herbert returns to a backup role, which is saddening. Last year, Herbert proved once again that when given the opportunity, he is one of the better rushing talents in the NFL. Last season, he ranked 12th in explosive run rate and ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). In the eight games he played at least 43% of the snaps last season, he averaged 14 touches and 77.8 total yards. Herbert is a high-end handcuff currently with only fringe flex value for 2024.

Roschon Johnson had a consistent role as a committee back in his rookie season, but he was never able to seize the backfield fully. In the three games he played at least 49% of the snaps, he did average 9.7 touches and 53.5 total yards while flashing upside in the passing game. Among 60 qualifying backs last year, he ranked 27th in yards per route run and 17th in targets per route run rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Sadly, though, Johnson's collegiate tackle-breaking prowess didn't translate to the NFL in year one as he finished outside the top 40 backs in explosive run rate (46th), missed tackles forced per attempt (49th), and yards after contact per attempt (42nd). Johnson is now buried as the RB3 on Chicago's depth chart and is only a late-round best-ball target at best.