Fantasy Football Player Notes

Collins turned in a second consecutive 1,000-yard season despite missing five games with a hamstring injury. He'll be the alpha receiver in the Houston offense this season, with veteran Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel as supporting cast members. The 26-year-old Collins is just entering his prime and is a worthy option late in the first round of 2025 fantasy drafts.

After a triumphant rookie season in 2023, C.J. Stroud's production fell dramatically last season. In 2023, Stroud was QB8 in fantasy points per game (18.7) among quarterbacks who made at least nine starts. In 2024, he slipped to QB26 in fantasy points per game (13.7). His passing yardage per game dropped from 273.9 to 219.2. Much of the blame goes to a shoddy offensive line that allowed Stroud to be sacked 52 times and yielded a league-worst 27.2% pressure rate. Houston's offensive line could still be a problem in 2025. The Texans traded away their best offensive lineman, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, although they acquired a solid replacement in Cam Robinson. The Texans added to Stroud's pass-catching arsenal by drafting Iowa State WRs Jaden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, but WR Stefon Diggs left via free agency, and WR Tank Dell might not play in 2025 after sustaining a gruesome knee injury in December. It's probably best to expect something between the highs of 2023 and the lows of 2024, and to regard Stroud as a midrange QB2.

With Joe Mixon's health up in the air, Nick Chubb could be Houston's lead back in 2025 if he can stay healthy. Last year, before he was lost again to a foot fracture, he looked like a shell of his former self. Chubb only had a 2% explosive run rate, a 10% missed tackle rate, and 1.96 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). These numbers are all basement-level efficiency metrics. Hopefully, he improves upon these numbers in 2025, but with his lengthy injury history at age 29, it's far from certain. Chubb could easily be a weekly RB2/3 because of volume this season, even if he's inefficient along the way. Chubb is a decent late-round option in drafts this year if you're trying to catch up at RB.

Christian Kirk has had a rocky road over the last two years after his breakout 2022 campaign (WR18 in fantasy points per game). Last year, Kirk fractured his collarbone and was out for the season while dealing with calf issues before that. In 2023, he dealt with a groin tear. In an abbreviated showing last season, Kirk proved he still has it. His WR57 ranking in fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-8 last season doesn't jump off the page, but he did accrue an 18.7% target share with 1.84 yards per route run, a 23.8% first-read share, and 0.087 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those metrics scream, "DRAFT HIM NOW," but it also has to be said that among 116 qualifying receivers, he also ranked 13th in separation and 22nd in route win rate. Inside what looked like a broken Jaguars' offense last year, Kirk was still crushing corners. He's set for a wonderful possible bounce-back season in Houston if he can stay healthy. Now, you can add a player of his caliber as your WR5/6. It's free upside at the end of your drafts. I remember last year when we were drafting every starting Texan wide receiver aggressively. Now, Nico Collins is the only player that fantasy gamers are paying up for in drafts.

Higgins got the capital I was hoping for as the fifth wide receiver selected in the NFL Draft at the top of the second round. Higgins should immediately file in as the starting outside receiver opposite Nico Collins in two wide receiver sets. Higgins was an underrated player throughout the entire draft process, ranking 27th and 16th in yards per route run and first and 18th in receiving grade during his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). He's a sure-handed receiver who will become a trusted safety blanket for C.J. Stroud after posting a 2.2% drop rate or lower in each of the last three seasons and a 55.6% contested catch rate in college. The addition of Higgins and fellow former Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel should push Christian Kirk while also hopefully fueling a big bounce-back season for Stroud. Higgins is a WR3/4 that could easily evolve into a weekly WR2 as the 2025 season rolls along.

Over the last four years, Joe Mixon has averaged 1,377 yards from scrimmage and 12.3 touchdowns per season. But Mixon is heading into his age-29 season and dealing with a foot issue that landed him on the reserve/non-football injury list, which means he'll miss at least the first four games of the season. It's also possible he'll cede some snaps to rookie Woody Marks on passing downs and to veteran Nick Chubb on early downs. Plus, the Texans have one of the league's worst offensive lines. There are a lot of storm clouds here -- probably too many to warrant spending a draft pick on Mixon.

Houston was the DST5 in fantasy points per game last year, and they should be in the running for a top-five finish again in 2025. Last year, they ranked 13th in pressure rate and fourth in sacks (tied). The addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson could help force a few more turnovers weekly, which wouldn't hurt (fifth-most turnovers forced last year).

The Texans added Marks to their backfield in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. he looks like a passing down back upgrade over Dare Ogunbowale, who can also take on some early down work to spell Joe Mixon occasionally. I wasn't high on Marks as a prospect. Since 2021, he never finished higher than 102nd in yards after contact per attempt or elusive rating (per PFF). He could siphon off some targets from Mixon, though. He has ranked 26th or higher in receiving grade in three of the last four seasons.

Last season, Ka'imi Fairbairn was the K5 in fantasy points per game, while ranking 11th in extra points, third in field goal attempts, and 14th in percentage of field goals made. Last year, he dropped below 93% of his kicks made for the first time since 2022. If Houston's offense bounces back in 2025 and Fairbairn returns to his highly accurate ways, he could be a top-three kicker.

Noel was disrespected by the NFL as he dropped into the third round of the NFL Draft. The Houston Texans stopped his tumble and called his name with the 15th pick in the third round. I expect Noel to use this as fuel for the fire and walk into the building with a chip on his shoulder. Noel has the play strength, route prowess, and speed to play in the slot or on the outside. He could struggle to find playing time in his rookie season with Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and his former collegiate teammate Jayden Higgins all sitting above him on the depth chart. Collins and Kirk have had their injury issues over the last few years, so it's easily possible that Noel will be starting by midseason. Last year, Noel ranked in the top 30 in receiving grade and yards per route run while sitting second in deep receiving yards among FBS wide receivers (per PFF). Noel is an awesome late-round flier.

In 2024, Dalton Schultz hit five-year lows in targets (85) catches (53), receiving yards (532) and touchdowns (2). The result was a TE22 fantasy finish in half-point PPR scoring even though Schultz played all 17 of the Texans' games. A slight rebound is possible, but it's hard to see much fantasy upside for Schultz as he enters his age-29 season. WR Nico Collins figures to be the Texans' undisputed target leader, and Houston has also added veteran Christian Kirk and promising rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel at receiver. Consider Schultz a midrange TE2 at best.