Fantasy Football Player Notes

Chris Olave ended his strong rookie season 8th in total air yards (1,531) while commanding a 25% target share and 10th-ranked air yards share (38%). He was the WR26 in points per game (11.0), 6th in yards per route run (2.42) and 8th in target rate per route run (28%). One of the most efficient seasons we have ever seen from a rookie WR. His downfield skill set and per-route efficiency will gel extremely well with his new quarterback, Derek Carr, in 2023.
Olave is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than 5 TDs.

Alvin Kamara had a year to forget in 2022 with QB/TE Taysom Hill seeing an increased role as a backfield rusher in the Saints offense. Hill earned more touches inside the 10-yard line (8 vs. 12) which limited Kamara to just two rushing TDs. AK41's receiving usage also fell off a cliff toward the end of the year. From Weeks 13-18, Kamara never caught more than two passes. His target share fell from 22% to 11%. The days of him being a game-breaker as a receiver seem to be long gone as he has seen his pass-catching numbers fall off drastically compared to his first four years in the NFL when he was averaging nearly 90 receptions per year. The overall lack of TDs and receiving was heightened more so when Kamara's poor rushing efficiency failed to make up for his loss in other production. The Saints running back ended the year second-worst in the rushing EPA (-41). Before the schedule eased up over the last four games, Kamara had just two games with 65 rushing yards. He still managed to finish as the RB15 in points per game (12.8), which might need to be his new fantasy expectation when he plays in 2023. Because there are serious question marks about Kamara's availability in regards to a potential suspension on events from last year's Pro Bowl. The general ambiguity will make him very risky to draft in the early rounds.

How does a running back finish as the RB12 while catching only 12 passes? Touchdowns. That's exactly how the season played out for Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams. He took on the role as the Lions' goal-line back, carrying the ball a league-high 41 times inside the 10-yard line for 13 rushing TDs. Williams would finish the year with a league-high 17 rushing TDs - not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns.

Touchdown regression pundits will shout to the heavens that Williams cannot duplicate his 2022 success and his new landing spot in New Orleans confirms this. He signed for 3 years, $12 million, $8 million guaranteed but will now compete for red-zone touches with both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. Kamara totaled just eight carries inside the 10-yard line last season with Hill chipping in 12. But a potential Kamara suspension would dramatically boost Williams' fantasy value as the Saints offense has never shied away from featuring the likes of Latavius Murray or Mark Ingram when AK41 has missed time in the past.

The limited three-game sample we got with Thomas returning to the field last year was promising. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by another injury, but at least he resembled shades of his former self. Thomas had a 19.6% target share and a 33.3% endzone target share. Thomas wasn't a full-time player, though, as he saw only a 77.3% route run rate which could also speak to his health. If he wasn't fully healthy at any time last year, it would make sense for the team to limit his snaps some trying to conserve him. Thomas managed a 22% target per route run rate and 1.73 yards per route run. Those aren't mind-blowing numbers, but they are solid. With a strong red zone role, he could still produce a WR3 season with those peripherals. Derek Carr should offer an upgrade in quarterback play and overall efficiency of the offense in Big Easy this year. Thomas could turn into a high-floor option, but crafting an upside or ceiling scenario for him in 2023 is difficult.

The nine-year veteran is now on the Saints and will be suiting up for a team other than the Silver and Black for the first time in his career. There were some concerning signs of slippage for Carr in 2022. His interception rate (2.8%) was the highest of his career, and his completion percentage (60.8%) was the lowest since his rookie year. He averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, a five-year low. Carr doesn't add rushing value, so his fantasy value will depend on his ability to rebound from a down year as a passer.

Juwan Johnson finished TE11 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last season after catching 42 passes for 508 yards and seven touchdowns. It was an impressive performance considering that the Saints slogged through 2022 with Andy Dalton as their quarterback for most of the year. The Saints didn't select any of the top tight ends from a loaded TE draft class, and they traded TE Adam Trautman to the Broncos, although they did sign TE Foster Moreau, who is recovering from Hodgkin's Lymphoma and reportedly plans to play in 2023. A former undrafted free agent, Johnson has been a diamond in the rough for the Saints and could provide more sneaky fantasy value in 2023.

A situational wildcat quarterback masquerading as a tight end, Taysom Hill finished TE5 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last year. Hill was wildly inconsistent from week to week, however, and a 112-yard, three-TD rushing performance vs. Seattle in Week 5 accounted for a massive chunk of his fantasy scoring. Hill's fantasy value for 2023 depends largely on his usage. With Derek Carr arriving in New Orleans during the offseason, it seems likely the Saints will reduce Hill's snap counts, rendering him a fantasy afterthought who might have a couple of splash weeks but won't provide bankable value.

Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller's career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He's explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class).

Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller also posted the 4th-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18).

Miller did not test at all during the pre-draft process (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but that didn't stop the New Orleans Saints from investing a third-round pick in him during the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is an ideal home-run hitter and 1-2 punch fit with veteran Jamaal Williams should Alvin Kamara miss anytime.

Jameis Winston started the first three games of 2022 for the Saints, sustained four fractures in his back in Week 4, and then was never reinstated as the starter even after his back had healed. The 29-year-old has a strong arm and 80 NFL starts under his belt, but it appears Winston is destined for backup duty again now that the Saints have added Derek Carr.