Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 15 | 6.02% | 10.00% | 349.0 | 1 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 336.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 16 | 6.13% | 0.00% | 345.5 | 2 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 332.9 | 2 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 16 | 6.40% | 0.00% | 299.1 | 3 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 280.2 | 4 | -1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 15 | 4.32% | 0.00% | 290.0 | 4 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 300.4 | 3 | +1 |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 16 | 6.57% | 0.00% | 290.0 | 5 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 275.6 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 16 | 5.77% | 0.00% | 269.0 | 6 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 261.3 | 6 | 0 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 15 | 4.96% | 50.00% | 226.2 | 7 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 220.1 | 9 | -2 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 14 | 12.28% | 0.00% | 222.9 | 8 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 172.6 | 29 | -21 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 15 | 5.79% | 0.00% | 220.3 | 9 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 214.1 | 11 | -2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 16 | 5.65% | 0.00% | 218.2 | 10 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 212.2 | 12 | -2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) | 16 | 2.84% | 0.00% | 217.9 | 11 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 236.0 | 7 | +4 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 16 | 4.24% | 10.00% | 213.5 | 12 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 225.0 | 8 | +4 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 16 | 6.86% | 0.00% | 206.5 | 13 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 193.7 | 18 | -5 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 16 | 3.92% | 0.00% | 203.0 | 14 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 208.3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 16 | 5.74% | 0.00% | 200.9 | 15 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 193.2 | 19 | -4 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 16 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 199.7 | 16 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 198.6 | 16 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 13 | 2.56% | 0.00% | 199.5 | 17 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 216.0 | 10 | +7 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | 16 | 6.31% | 0.00% | 199.3 | 18 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 188.9 | 20 | -2 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 16 | 6.00% | 0.00% | 194.1 | 19 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 188.1 | 21 | -2 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 16 | 4.72% | 0.00% | 193.9 | 20 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 195.0 | 17 | +3 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) | 16 | 3.54% | 0.00% | 193.6 | 21 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 201.8 | 15 | +6 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 14 | 11.22% | 0.00% | 192.9 | 22 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 159.2 | 33 | -11 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 15 | 6.06% | 50.00% | 187.2 | 23 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 174.9 | 27 | -4 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 15 | 5.05% | 5.88% | 184.1 | 24 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 179.4 | 24 | 0 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 11 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 184.1 | 25 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 178.8 | 25 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 16 | 1.42% | 0.00% | 183.1 | 26 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 209.7 | 13 | +13 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 16 | 5.61% | 0.00% | 180.9 | 27 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 176.2 | 26 | +1 |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | 16 | 5.77% | 0.00% | 177.1 | 28 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 172.7 | 28 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | 16 | 3.28% | 0.00% | 172.1 | 29 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 180.3 | 23 | +6 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 14 | 9.41% | 0.00% | 171.2 | 30 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 148.8 | 38 | -8 |
| DJ Moore (CHI) | 16 | 7.06% | 6.67% | 168.1 | 31 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 153.9 | 36 | -5 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 16 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 166.4 | 32 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 170.7 | 31 | +1 |
| Jakobi Meyers (JAC) | 15 | 2.73% | 0.00% | 166.4 | 33 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 180.3 | 22 | +11 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 14 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 165.8 | 34 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 136.6 | 42 | -8 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 16 | 7.06% | 0.00% | 165.4 | 35 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 154.5 | 34 | +1 |
| Parker Washington (JAC) | 15 | 5.21% | 0.00% | 165.0 | 36 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 168.1 | 32 | +4 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 16 | 5.43% | 0.00% | 156.3 | 37 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 154.1 | 35 | +2 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | 17 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 155.4 | 38 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 172.4 | 30 | +8 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 14 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 154.1 | 39 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 152.9 | 37 | +2 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 8 | 6.41% | 20.00% | 150.1 | 40 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 138.3 | 40 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 12 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 146.1 | 41 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 136.7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 13 | 3.80% | 50.00% | 133.3 | 42 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 132.2 | 44 | -2 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 10 | 10.91% | 0.00% | 132.4 | 43 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 112.9 | 53 | -10 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) | 13 | 2.20% | 33.33% | 130.9 | 44 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 139.0 | 39 | +5 |
| Marquise Brown (KC) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 128.3 | 45 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 118.4 | 52 | -7 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 12 | 5.48% | 0.00% | 127.8 | 46 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 125.4 | 48 | -2 |
| Josh Downs (IND) | 15 | 4.49% | 0.00% | 126.8 | 47 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 127.9 | 46 | +1 |
| Luther Burden III (CHI) | 14 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 120.4 | 48 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 126.1 | 47 | +1 |
| Chimere Dike (TEN) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 120.4 | 49 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 119.7 | 51 | -2 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 13 | 13.04% | 0.00% | 119.7 | 50 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 96.1 | 62 | -12 |
| Jayden Higgins (HOU) | 16 | 8.82% | 0.00% | 119.2 | 51 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 107.8 | 56 | -5 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 16 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 116.5 | 52 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 134.0 | 43 | +9 |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | 15 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 113.4 | 53 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 120.8 | 49 | +4 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | 15 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 112.4 | 54 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 120.2 | 50 | +4 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 14 | 1.37% | 0.00% | 109.9 | 55 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 128.1 | 45 | +10 |
| Elic Ayomanor (TEN) | 15 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 108.5 | 56 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 107.8 | 55 | +1 |
| Malik Washington (MIA) | 16 | 4.62% | 5.88% | 104.9 | 57 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 108.5 | 54 | +3 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 9 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 104.5 | 58 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 103.0 | 59 | -1 |
| Ryan Flournoy (DAL) | 14 | 7.02% | 0.00% | 102.2 | 59 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 93.6 | 64 | -5 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 7 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 99.5 | 60 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 92.9 | 66 | -6 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 12 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 93.5 | 61 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 85.8 | 72 | -11 |
| Jalen Nailor (MIN) | 16 | 7.55% | 0.00% | 92.8 | 62 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 84.0 | 74 | -12 |
| Kendrick Bourne (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 92.1 | 63 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 107.5 | 57 | +6 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 16 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 90.9 | 64 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 87.3 | 70 | -6 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 15 | 1.96% | 8.33% | 90.0 | 65 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 95.0 | 63 | +2 |
| Tez Johnson (TB) | 15 | 11.36% | 0.00% | 89.4 | 66 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 73.8 | 85 | -19 |
| Darius Slayton (NYG) | 13 | 1.59% | 0.00% | 89.4 | 67 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 99.4 | 60 | +7 |
| Ricky Pearsall (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 88.6 | 68 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 104.7 | 58 | +10 |
| Adonai Mitchell (NYJ) | 15 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 87.9 | 69 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 97.1 | 61 | +8 |
| Andrei Iosivas (CIN) | 16 | 3.39% | 0.00% | 86.9 | 70 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 91.9 | 68 | +2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus (CHI) | 15 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 84.8 | 71 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 92.9 | 65 | +6 |
| Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) | 16 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 84.6 | 72 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 81.5 | 77 | -5 |
| Xavier Legette (CAR) | 14 | 4.69% | 0.00% | 84.1 | 73 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 84.1 | 73 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin (DAL) | 14 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 83.8 | 74 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 86.5 | 71 | +3 |
| Sterling Shepard (TB) | 13 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 82.0 | 75 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 92.6 | 67 | +8 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) | 8 | 3.92% | 0.00% | 81.2 | 76 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 84.0 | 75 | +1 |
| Tyquan Thornton (KC) | 14 | 8.11% | 0.00% | 80.8 | 77 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 73.7 | 86 | -9 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 7 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 79.4 | 78 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 78.8 | 80 | -2 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 14 | 1.39% | 0.00% | 77.3 | 79 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 90.5 | 69 | +10 |
| Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 14 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 75.8 | 80 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 77.6 | 81 | -1 |
| Greg Dortch (ARI) | 12 | 9.09% | 14.29% | 75.1 | 81 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 62.5 | 97 | -16 |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | 10 | 6.98% | 0.00% | 73.7 | 82 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 72.3 | 87 | -5 |
| Isaac TeSlaa (DET) | 16 | 22.22% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 83 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 44.8 | 116 | -33 |
| Calvin Austin III (PIT) | 13 | 5.45% | 0.00% | 71.7 | 84 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 73.9 | 84 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett (LV) | 16 | 1.82% | 0.00% | 71.6 | 85 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 80.4 | 78 | +7 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) | 16 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 70.2 | 86 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 76.9 | 82 | +4 |
| Van Jefferson (TEN) | 16 | 1.92% | 0.00% | 70.0 | 87 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 79.4 | 79 | +8 |
| Matthew Golden (GB) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 68.2 | 88 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 82.7 | 76 | +12 |
| Pat Bryant (DEN) | 14 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 67.7 | 89 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 74.7 | 83 | +6 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (BAL) | 16 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 67.0 | 90 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 65.9 | 92 | -2 |
| John Metchie III (NYJ) | 15 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 66.9 | 91 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 68.6 | 90 | +1 |
| Devaughn Vele (NO) | 13 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 66.3 | 92 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 65.8 | 93 | -1 |
| Jaylin Noel (HOU) | 16 | 5.71% | 0.00% | 66.1 | 93 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 65.6 | 94 | -1 |
| Tre Harris (LAC) | 16 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 64.6 | 94 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 70.0 | 89 | +5 |
| Travis Hunter (JAC) | 7 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 63.8 | 95 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 71.3 | 88 | +7 |
| Kalif Raymond (DET) | 14 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 58.6 | 96 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 61.0 | 99 | -3 |
| Christian Kirk (HOU) | 12 | 1.92% | 0.00% | 57.2 | 97 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 66.0 | 91 | +6 |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 4 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 57.1 | 98 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 55.4 | 106 | -8 |
| Cedric Tillman (CLE) | 12 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 56.7 | 99 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 55.6 | 105 | -6 |
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 13 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 55.4 | 100 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 54.6 | 107 | -7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 53.5 | 101 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 56.1 | 104 | -3 |
| Demarcus Robinson (SF) | 13 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 52.8 | 102 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 56.2 | 103 | -1 |
| Isaiah Bond (CLE) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 52.0 | 103 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 65.4 | 95 | +8 |
| Brandin Cooks (BUF) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 51.9 | 104 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 62.5 | 96 | +8 |
| Isaiah Williams (NYJ) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 51.3 | 105 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 60.6 | 100 | +5 |
| Joshua Palmer (BUF) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 51.2 | 106 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 61.2 | 98 | +8 |
| Jaylin Lane (WAS) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 49.2 | 107 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 58.9 | 101 | +6 |
| Dyami Brown (JAC) | 14 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 47.9 | 108 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 54.0 | 108 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 47.3 | 109 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 57.9 | 102 | +7 |
| David Sills V (ATL) | 16 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 47.0 | 110 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 45.3 | 115 | -5 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 12 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 46.3 | 111 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 50.1 | 111 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson (PHI) | 16 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 43.2 | 112 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 45.5 | 114 | -2 |
| Jack Bech (LV) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 42.4 | 113 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 50.4 | 110 | +3 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 6 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 35.9 | 114 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 31.6 | 132 | -18 |
| Adam Thielen | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32.3 | 115 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 40.9 | 119 | -4 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling (PIT) | 9 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 23.6 | 116 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 24.1 | 145 | -29 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. (LV) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.5 | 117 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 32.1 | 130 | -13 |
